"What ISIS Really Wants" : A Compelling Read
Posted on Mon Feb 16, 2015 at 07:13:30 PM EST
Tags: ISIS, Iraq, Syria (all tags)
Graeme Wood has a very long but compelling article in The Atlantic What ISIS Really Wants. It is about ISIS' ideology and methodology. It's too long to hit all the key points, so I will just mention a few.
Virtually every major decision and law promulgated by the Islamic State adheres to what it calls, in its press and pronouncements, and on its billboards, license plates, stationery, and coins, “the Prophetic methodology,” which means following the prophecy and example of Muhammad, in punctilious detail. Muslims can reject the Islamic State; nearly all do. But pretending that it isn’t actually a religious, millenarian group, with theology that must be understood to be combatted, has already led the United States to underestimate it and back foolish schemes to counter it. We’ll need to get acquainted with the Islamic State’s intellectual genealogy if we are to react in a way that will not strengthen it, but instead help it self-immolate in its own excessive zeal. [More....]
Not understanding ISIS' ideology is dangerous. Misunderstandings can lead to disastrous results. Time Magazine today reports Europe is next in ISIS' cross-hairs. The headline to today's article is ISIS Sets Sights on Europe in Latest Beheading Video." In the recent beheading video of the Egyptian Coptic Christians, the ISIS leader says "And we will conquer Rome by Allah's Permission."
Italy may be 400 miles from Tripoli, but "Rome" doesn't mean "Rome, Italy." It would be foolhardy for Italy to attack Libya fearing ISIS is about to invade Italy. The statement does not refer to Italy or signal an intent to invade Italy.
Here is a rough translation of what the ISIS beheader said about Rome, via one of its media foundations:
O' People, Recently you have seen us on the hills of Sham ( The Levant) and on Dabiq's plain,
chopping off the heads of those apostate ...And today we are on south of Rome, on the land of Islam Libya, to send another Message,
O' Crusaders, Safety for you will be only wishes, especially when you are fighting us all together,
Therefore we will fight you all together, until the war lays down its burdens and Jesus peace be upon him will descend. Breaking the cross, killing the swine, and Abolishing Jizyah, and the sea you have hidden Sheikh Osama Bin Laden body in, we will swear to Allah that we will mix it with your blood.
And we will conquer Rome by Allah's Permission, The promise of Our Prophet may peace and blessing be upon him.
Apparently, ISIS believes it will meet the enemy armies of the Roman Christians in Dabiq in northern Syria because that's where the Prophet said the Apocalypse would start (before moving on to Turkey.) Wood explains:
The Islamic State has attached great importance to the Syrian city of Dabiq, near Aleppo. It named its propaganda magazine after the town, and celebrated madly when (at great cost) it conquered Dabiq’s strategically unimportant plains. It is here, the Prophet reportedly said, that the armies of Rome will set up their camp. The armies of Islam will meet them, and Dabiq will be Rome’s Waterloo or its Antietam.
ISIS is fond of quoting al-Zarqawi as saying,
“The spark has been lit here in Iraq, and its heat will continue to intensify … until it burns the crusader armies in Dabiq.
ISIS has a full description of the final battles in Issue #4 of Dabiq Magazine. It says:
Rome in the Arabic tongue of the Prophet refers to the Christians of Europe and their colonies in Shām prior to the conquering of Shām at the hands of the Sahābah.
Via Wood:
Now that it has taken Dabiq, the Islamic State awaits the arrival of an enemy army there, whose defeat will initiate the countdown to the apocalypse. Western media frequently miss references to Dabiq in the Islamic State’s videos, and focus instead on lurid scenes of beheading. “Here we are, burying the first American crusader in Dabiq, eagerly waiting for the remainder of your armies to arrive,” said a masked executioner in a November video, showing the severed head of Peter (Abdul Rahman) Kassig, the aid worker who’d been held captive for more than a year.
Rome seems to be a metaphor or shorthand for the enemy -- the armies of the Roman Christians. There will be big battles in Dabiq and Turkey. But it is not known if ISIS will be the one to fight them:
The Prophetic narration that foretells the Dabiq battle refers to the enemy as Rome. Who “Rome” is, now that the pope has no army, remains a matter of debate. But [Islamic State source] Cerantonio makes a case that Rome meant the Eastern Roman empire, which had its capital in what is now Istanbul. We should think of Rome as the Republic of Turkey — the same republic that ended the last self-identified caliphate, 90 years ago. Other Islamic State sources suggest that Rome might mean any infidel army, and the Americans will do nicely.
After its battle in Dabiq, Cerantonio said, the caliphate will expand and sack Istanbul. Some believe it will then cover the entire Earth, but Cerantonio suggested its tide may never reach beyond the Bosporus. An anti-Messiah, known in Muslim apocalyptic literature as Dajjal, will come from the Khorasan region of eastern Iran and kill a vast number of the caliphate’s fighters, until just 5,000 remain, cornered in Jerusalem. Just as Dajjal prepares to finish them off, Jesus — the second-most-revered prophet in Islam — will return to Earth, spear Dajjal, and lead the Muslims to victory.
“Only God knows” whether the Islamic State’s armies are the ones foretold, Cerantonio said. But he is hopeful.
Wood also points out the differences between al Qaida and ISIS, and says unlike AQ, ISIS is predictable.
The ideological purity of the Islamic State has one compensating virtue: it allows us to predict some of the group’s actions. Osama bin Laden was seldom predictable. He ended his first television interview cryptically. CNN’s Peter Arnett asked him, “What are your future plans?” Bin Laden replied, “You’ll see them and hear about them in the media, God willing.”
By contrast, the Islamic State boasts openly about its plans—not all of them, but enough so that by listening carefully, we can deduce how it intends to govern and expand.
As an example of the risks the U.S. takes in not fully appreciating their differences, Wood cites the FBI's facilitation of a planned rescue attempt of Peter Kassig by American lawyer Stanley Cohen and AQ spiritual advisor al Maqdisi. The plan involved a reconciliation between Maqdisi and his former pupil, now an ISIS spiritual adviser. (I wrote a long post about this at the time it was disclosed in the Guardian.) He writes:
[i]f the Islamic State obtained the allegiance of al‑Qaeda — increasing, in one swoop, the unity of its base — it could wax into a worse foe than we’ve yet seen.
Wood also discusses the pros and cons of various strategies to defeat ISIS. He concludes the airstrikes (rather than ground forces) are the best of the available bad options:
Given everything we know about the Islamic State, continuing to slowly bleed it appears the best of bad military options.
Properly contained, the Islamic State is likely to be its own undoing. No country is its ally, and its ideology ensures that this will remain the case. The land it controls, while expansive, is mostly uninhabited and poor. As it stagnates or slowly shrinks, its claim that it is the engine of God’s will and the agent of apocalypse will weaken, and fewer believers will arrive. And as more reports of misery within it leak out, radical Islamist movements elsewhere will be discredited...
...Without a catastrophe such as this [an AQ-IS reconciliation], however, or perhaps the threat of the Islamic State’s storming Erbil, a vast ground invasion would certainly make the situation worse.
I didn't understand Wood's discussion of another Salafist Muslim qroup known as "the Quietists" as a possible solution to ISIS. That aside, I highly recommend the article.
ISIS is fascist at its core, and there is a method or purpose behind every atrocity. It has great appeal to marginalized and disaffected youth. If there is any chance of defeating ISIS, without just having one of its rivals take its place, it won't be achieved by a military invasion seeking to annihilate it. The governments opposing ISIS have to combat its ideology, and to do that, it first must understand it.
Update: CNN analyst Peter Bergen agrees with Wood in this new article.
ISIS wants a Western ground force to invade Syria, as that will confirm the prophecy about Dabiq....For many of us the idea that the end of times will come with a battle between "Rome" and Islam at the obscure Syrian town of Dabiq is as absurd as the belief that the Mayans had that their human sacrifices could influence future events.But for ISIS, the Dabiq prophecy is deadly serious. Members of ISIS believe that they are the vanguard fighting a religious war, which Allah has determined will be won by the forces of true Islam. ...ISIS members devoutly believe that they are fighting in a cosmic war in which they are on the side of good, which allows them to kill anyone they perceive to be standing in their way with no compunction. This is, of course, a serious delusion, but serious it is.
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