Selzer Poll: Iowa Tight
The gold standard for polling in Iowa is the Selzer Poll for the Des Moines Register. And its latest poll of the Iowa Dem caucus shows a very tight race = it's now 42-40 Clinton. In their previous poll it was 48-39.
A couple of interesting points - (1) the tightening is due to some Clinton supporters moving to undecided. Sanders support has not moved up (up a point which is statistically insignificant with a MOE of 4.4.) (2) Sanders support is very concentrated in college towns and thus may not translate into a delegate win even if he prevails in the popular vote.
Iowa is a very strange state for reporting results. It is actually very hard to get a popular vote read out of Iowa. So watch for how the results in Iowa are reported.
But the reality remains the same - Sanders has to win to have a chance. A split of Iowa and NH (Sanders leads there) leaves an unchanged landscape with the primaries moving to South Carolina and Nevada where Clinton's dominating leads among PoC put Sanders in a very tough spot.
Of course it would be uphill for Sanders even if he sweeps Iowa and NH, but without that I see it as basically ending the race.
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