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    James Carvile (5.00 / 2) (#1)
    by ragebot on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 01:46:59 PM EST
    use to say "it's the economy stupid".

    This is serious

    Given China's history of reporting less than accurate economic data I would bet things are worse than what the press is reporting.

    You are invoking (5.00 / 4) (#34)
    by Repack Rider on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 06:02:24 PM EST
    ...the First Law of Government Response, any government, not just China, but everything in the United States, from municipal to national.

    Anything they admit to is damage control.  It's always worse than that.

    Parent

    If investors didn't see this coming (none / 0) (#5)
    by Militarytracy on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 03:09:38 PM EST
    It was because they didn't want to

    Parent
    Judge Roy Moore (5.00 / 4) (#2)
    by jbindc on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 01:56:15 PM EST
    Orders halt to same sex marriage licenses

    The University of Alabama Law School should demand their diploma back, as he clearly doesn't understand than when the Supreme Court ruled on same sex marriage, and that ruling was contrary to Alabama state law, then, at that moment, the Alabama state law became null and void and no longer in effect.

    This is very good news for the ACLU of Alabama (5.00 / 6) (#4)
    by Peter G on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 02:56:24 PM EST
    Thousands more in attorneys fees will be assessed against the official Alabama defendants in the pending federal lawsuit if the defendants waste any more time stalling in reliance on the supposed "confusion" being willfully created by "Chief Justice" Moore. Other than that, this development is an irrelevant sideshow.

    Parent
    Moore (none / 0) (#3)
    by Ga6thDem on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 02:15:13 PM EST
    I doubt even cares about Alabama state law. He's all about "God's Law".

    Is someone going to have to send the troopers in again to Alabama?

    Parent

    Billionaire pays 800 NYC Math teachers (5.00 / 2) (#12)
    by Mr Natural on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 04:43:02 PM EST
    $15000 per year extra salary

    Simons, the founder of $22 billion Renaissance Technologies, has been channeling money to deserving math and science teachers through his philanthropic organization, Math for America.

    "We give them extra money, $15,000 a year. We have 800 math and science teachers in New York City in public schools today, as part of a core," said Simons in a rare interview with TED Talks.

    Teachers in America are poorly paid relative to their peers elsewhere in the advanced world.

    "There's a great morale among them," Simons added. "They're staying in the field. Next year, it'll be 1,000 and that'll be 10 percent of the math and science teachers in New York [City] public schools."



    IMO, this is how teachers should be (none / 0) (#46)
    by vml68 on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 06:36:07 PM EST
    valued and paid!
    LINK

    Parent
    The Religious (5.00 / 1) (#51)
    by Ga6thDem on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 06:38:52 PM EST
    Freedom legislation rears it's ugly head here in GA. link

    It has become an all out war between the business community who thinks GA is going to be come a national joke and the victim mindset of evangelicals.

    The Trump Show (5.00 / 1) (#56)
    by CaptHowdy on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 06:52:46 PM EST
    Comes to Burlington tonight.  20,000 iptickets for 1400 seats.  Line started forming at 4:30AM.   It was 15 degrees.  Very curious people.

    Trump's campaign (5.00 / 1) (#70)
    by Ga6thDem on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 07:11:22 PM EST
    is asking for loyalty from people and if they don't say they are a Trump supporter they are not being let in. HS friend lives in Burlington.

    Parent
    Rally is history (5.00 / 2) (#89)
    by Repack Rider on Fri Jan 08, 2016 at 02:02:34 AM EST
    News reports show that Mr. Trump had a problem with supporters of Bernie Sanders getting past the screening and chanting inside the rally.  

    The solution is obvious.  Mr. Trump has called for the end of gun-free zones, and this gives him an ideal opportunity to put his money where his mouth is.  If he required each of the thousands of attendees to show a loaded weapon at the door, Sanders' supporters would pay to stay AWAY from the rallies.

    With thousands of armed supporters in one building, chanting would no longer be Mr. Trump's problem.


    Parent

    Seems a little silly (none / 0) (#71)
    by CaptHowdy on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 07:14:28 PM EST
    Not a difficult thing to say you are a supporter.  I have not heard this in the news coverage.  And it seems like you would.


    Parent
    Yeah, I know (none / 0) (#73)
    by Ga6thDem on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 07:24:51 PM EST
    anyone can lie about being a supporter but according to him:

    From the Free Press Staff 6:35 p.m. January 7, 2016: The Donald Trump campaign is refusing to admit anyone who isn't a Trump supporter to his speech Thursday night in Burlington. Campaign staff are asking people at the door of the Flynn Center whether they back the New York billionaire businessman's campaign for the Republican nomination. If people answer anything but yes, they are turned away. Police officers are escorting people out of the building. Trump said in a statement to the Burlington Free Press, "I'm taking care of my people, not people who don't want to vote for me or are undecided. They are loyal to me, and I am loyal to them." The Trump campaign has the legal right to refuse admittance to anyone, the Burlington Police Chief said.

    On going coverage of the event here

    Parent

    What an insecure, whiny little sh*t he is (5.00 / 2) (#80)
    by shoephone on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 08:41:14 PM EST
    Might not (none / 0) (#75)
    by Ga6thDem on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 07:26:27 PM EST
    be in any national coverage until tomorrow or maybe not at all. Trump throwing people out of his events is probably not newsworthy anymore.

    Parent
    Jerry Brown declared a state of... (5.00 / 1) (#86)
    by desertswine on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 10:10:46 PM EST
    emergency in California because a storage well near LA has been spewing hundreds of tons of methane each day.

    Some people get real governors (5.00 / 1) (#87)
    by Militarytracy on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 10:13:43 PM EST
    And ... (5.00 / 1) (#88)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Fri Jan 08, 2016 at 12:12:25 AM EST
    The Christie/Rubio fight is officially on in NH (5.00 / 1) (#90)
    by CoralGables on Fri Jan 08, 2016 at 06:11:16 AM EST
    And the GOP establishment up and coming darling could find himself watching the field swim by him if he tries to trade barbs with Christie.

    Said Christie about Rubio: "This guy has been spoon fed every victory he's ever had in his life, is that the kind of person we want to put on the stage against Hillary Clinton? I don't think so. She'll pat him on the head and cut his heart out."

    Christie can't pull it off in 140 characters on Twitter like Trump, but put a microphone in front of him and he can slice and dice with the best of them.

    On a side note, Jeb picked up a 10 Million dollar donor yesterday. That should keep him rolling in cash for quite awhile longer.

    Christie (none / 0) (#91)
    by Ga6thDem on Fri Jan 08, 2016 at 06:46:26 AM EST
    is probably right about Rubio. Frankly I think Christie is going to take down Rubio in NH. I wouldn't be surprised to see Christie move into 2nd place in NH after the latest birther revelations about Cruz. Rubio seems to have no constituency within the GOP.

    Jeb is the walking dead. Now we're going to have to see his stupid mug longer because of some idiot millionaire.

    Parent

    And Rubio rumors of (5.00 / 1) (#153)
    by MKS on Sat Jan 09, 2016 at 10:37:05 AM EST
    a girlfriend causing him to give a less than all-out effort on the campaign trail.....

    Parent
    I get the feeling that there's still (none / 0) (#92)
    by Anne on Fri Jan 08, 2016 at 07:22:06 AM EST
    a hope - however deluded and wishful it is - that if they can just keep these more establishment types in the race long enough, they'll be perfectly positioned when the currently-leading crazies crash and burn.

    I guess it proves that some people have more money than common sense.

    Parent

    Just goes (5.00 / 2) (#93)
    by Ga6thDem on Fri Jan 08, 2016 at 07:27:51 AM EST
    to show that having money doesn't make you smarter than anybody else.

    Parent
    Cruz is well positioned (none / 0) (#152)
    by MKS on Sat Jan 09, 2016 at 10:34:44 AM EST
    I think he will win Iowa, which means he can live to fight another day in South Carolina even if he gets beat in New Hampshire.

    Maybe we should just look at the top two candidates in the polls and assume they are....the top two.

    Parent

    Nobody (none / 0) (#154)
    by FlJoe on Sat Jan 09, 2016 at 10:52:30 AM EST
    has high expectations for Cruz in NH, Iowa appears his barring disaster, so a decent double figure middle of the pack finish in NH will be perfectly fine for him.

    Parent
    David Neiwert on the Bundys (none / 0) (#6)
    by shoephone on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 03:24:53 PM EST
    and the kid gloves treatment they are getting from the feds.

    I've always liked Neiwert and the work he has done to expose white supremacists and fringe righties.

    This is just me (none / 0) (#17)
    by Militarytracy on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 05:04:41 PM EST
    But I'm certain the kid gloves are going to come off. Some of the Oregon locals let a bit of the cat out of the bag discussing how the FBI has been locally recruiting informants.

    But after the first Bundy standoff followed by some of that brood opening fire on innocent Americans, there is an undercover FBI agent or two sleeping in that bird sanctuary right now:)

    When these guys are finally arrested, it'll be for life and cases that are air tight.

    Parent

    I hope you are right (5.00 / 1) (#20)
    by shoephone on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 05:10:17 PM EST
    Because, by contrast, I can't help remembering Wounded Knee '73 and what the feds did then.

    Parent
    DHS had occupy infilitrated (none / 0) (#23)
    by Militarytracy on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 05:25:14 PM EST
    I thought that was low, an unarmed protest. They should still be ashamed of themselves for that IMO. These guys are flat out scary. They were flat out scary the day they had snipers on hillsides. According to the Southern Poverty Law Center these militias and this mindset has really taken hold. I think Bundy standoff #1 created the need for a secret mission between the FBI/DHS/ATF and who knows who else.

    Ya'll Qaeda cracks me up, they are still advertising, "Come one, come all. Come join us."

    When they start taking them down, it's probably going to be a wild time. When we learn of some of the plots they have pondered it'll probably curl our hair too.

    Parent

    Now an Idaho militia has joined them (none / 0) (#164)
    by shoephone on Sat Jan 09, 2016 at 02:55:11 PM EST
    at Malheur.

    About the same time, members of another armed group known as the 3% of Idaho began arriving at the bird sanctuary, The Oregonian reported (http://goo.gl/mEMbqo ).

    "They just keep an eye on everything that is going on to make sure nothing stupid happens," Bundy told The Oregonian on Friday afternoon outside refuge headquarters.

    "If they weren't here," Bundy said, referring to the Idaho group, "I'd worry" about a Waco, Texas-style siege by federal officials in the early 1990s.

    "The 3%"?? What are these people smoking?

    "Make sure nothing stupid happens." Because it isn't already one of the stupidest stunts in Oregon history?

    "I'd worry about a Waco." Seems to me, that is exactly what these idiots are hoping for.

    So...the feds not taking action doesn't appear to be part of any clever, grander scheme to get the idiots out of the wildlife refuge. In fact, the feds' inaction has only invited other groups to join in.

    Brilliant. How many people need to flock to this fantasy world for the feds to do something? And doesn't the increase in partygoers make the job of removing them more difficult, not less?

    Parent

    If no one (none / 0) (#165)
    by TrevorBolder on Sat Jan 09, 2016 at 03:43:54 PM EST
    Pays any attention to them, hopefully they will get bored and go home.

    At this location, that is an option

    Parent

    Well, there's hope, and then there's (5.00 / 1) (#166)
    by shoephone on Sat Jan 09, 2016 at 03:48:00 PM EST
    the history of the Bundy family, their illegal acts, and the way the feds have let them get away with it, in both Nevada and now in Oregon. Bad precedents are being set, letting crazy white men who are armed to the teeth get away with whatever they want.

    Parent
    If the Republicans don't (none / 0) (#7)
    by KeysDan on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 03:27:32 PM EST
    end up nominating Trump, they may turn to a moderate candidate--Rubio! This moderate released a spot to play in Iowa that had Rubio saying: "Our goal is eternity, the ability to live alongside our Creator and for all time, to accept the free gift of salvation offered to us by Jesus Christ.  The struggle on a daily basis as a Christian is to remind ourselves of this.  The purpose of our life is to cooperate with God's plan...Were your treasures stored up on earth or in heaven.   And, to me I try to allow that to influence me.

    Rubio is rather ecumenical: he is a Roman Catholic but attends Evangelical prayer meetings on Saturday.  And, of course, in his youth he was a Mormon.  Maybe, Preacher-in-Chief would be a good idea for Rubio. But, he would have to show up on Saturdays and Sundays, at least.

    Too bad Rubio isn't a moderate, huh? (5.00 / 1) (#9)
    by Anne on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 04:16:41 PM EST
    Jonathan Chait in NY Magazine:

    On foreign policy, he has embraced full-scale neoconservatism, winning enthusiastic plaudits from figures in the right-wing intelligentsia, like William Kristol. While much of the Republican Party has recoiled from the excesses of the Bush administration's wild-eyed response to the 9/11 attacks, Rubio has not. He was one of 32 senators to oppose the USA Freedom Act, which restrained the federal government's ability to conduct surveillance. He was one of just 21 senators opposing a prohibition on torture, insisting, "I do not support telegraphing to the enemy what interrogation techniques we will or won't use." Indeed, Rubio now delights his audiences by promising to torture suspected terrorists, who will "get a one-way ticket to Guantánamo, where we're going to find out everything they know."

    On social issues, Rubio has endorsed a complete ban on abortions, even in cases of rape and incest (a stance locating Rubio to the right of George W. Bush). He has promised to reverse executive orders protecting LGBT citizens from discrimination and to appoint justices who would reverse same-sex marriage. The centerpiece of Rubio's domestic policy is a massive tax cut -- more than three times the size of the Bush tax cut, and nearly half of which would go to the highest-earning 5 percent of taxpayers. By reducing federal revenue by more than a quarter, Rubio's plan would dominate all facets of his domestic program, which is otherwise a mix of conventional Republican proposals to eliminate Obamacare, jack up defense spending, and protect retirement benefits for everybody 55 and up. Rubio has voted for the Paul Ryan budget ("by and large, it's exactly the direction we should be headed"). He has proposed to deregulate the financial system, thrilling Wall Street. (Richard Bove, author of Guardians of Prosperity: Why America Needs Big Banks, wrote a grateful op-ed headlined, "Thank you, Marco Rubio.")

    So, why is he regarded as a moderate?

    Chait, again:

    Rubio is a political pragmatist. And pragmatism is the fundamental divide inside the GOP. While split on foreign policy between neo-conservatism and neo-isolationism, Republicans have near-unanimity on economic and social policy. A domestic Rubio presidency would look very much like a Cruz presidency or a Bush or a Walker presidency. Any Republican would sign the bills passed by Paul Ryan's House and Mitch McConnell's Senate.

    [...]

    He avoids statements that make him appear ostentatiously deranged, like Cruz visually comparing Obama to a Nazi, or Trump ... doing just about everything Trump has done. The third cause of Rubio's moderate image is that he declines to indulge right-wing paranoia on such topics as whether Obama is a Marxist, or the looming threat of Sharia law in the United States, trading the opportunity to indicate solidarity with the base for general election viability. He husbands his potential electoral weakness for matters of policy, not symbolism.

    Rubio's value to the party is that he approaches its predicament realistically. He will reach out to Democratic-leaning constituencies with personal appeal without compromising on core agenda items Republicans care about.

    But the real question is, why are people talking about Rubio's boots?

    It is not because they are a decision that objectively merits consideration. Nor is it because they are especially notable as a fashion statement. It is because Rubio's opponents are trying to use them symbolically to turn his campaign message into a liability.

    Rubio's plan is to run to the right on policy substance, but to the center on affect and tone. He avoids gratuitous demonstrations of anger, speaking optimistically and sometimes even gently. If it works, Rubio's strategy will make him more popular in a general election, encouraging Republican insiders to rally around him, thereby increasing his chances of winning the nomination. There is some evidence this is succeeding -- far-right figures within the party, like Erick Erickson and Glenn Beck, are warming to him. The Rubio proposition of spending your popularity on substance rather than symbolism is one whose values political insiders recognize.

    The weakness in Rubio's strategy is that it leaves him out of step with the mood among the base. That is what his rivals are attempting to exploit. Specifically, they are trying to make Rubio's boots imply something deeper about his character: that he is a lightweight, unmanly, lacking the angry urgency needed at the moment. The boots are a synecdoche. Sunny and optimistic can be turned into callow, naïve, and even effeminate.

    Guess it could be worse: they could be talking about Hillary's cankles.

    Parent

    One of Rubio's (none / 0) (#13)
    by KeysDan on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 04:49:52 PM EST
    qualities is that he is a loyal family man.  Rubio recommended Orlando Cecilla, his brother-in-law, for a Florida real estate license.  Cecilla served 11 l/2 years in a federal prison for cocaine trafficking--distributing $15 million in cocaine.

     Rubio was, at the time, majority whip of the Florida legislature and wrote his letter of recommendation on official stationery. No mention was made of the Marco/Orlando relationship, or that Orlando was living with Rubio's parents at the time.

    And, then there is his relationship with his friend and Tallahassee house-mate, the shady David Rivera.

    Parent

    After that seamless display (none / 0) (#16)
    by CaptHowdy on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 05:03:48 PM EST
    He's going to feel pretty silly when Donald beats him in Iowa by waving a bible around.   Along with The Art of the Deal.

    Parent
    SHAMELESS display (none / 0) (#18)
    by CaptHowdy on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 05:04:43 PM EST
    Although it was seamless as well

    Parent
    and unseemly! (5.00 / 1) (#99)
    by ruffian on Fri Jan 08, 2016 at 08:48:34 AM EST
    Apparently (none / 0) (#8)
    by Ga6thDem on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 03:40:48 PM EST
    for 2016 on the GOP side there are going to be no limits on bad taste. That ad was perfectly awful and it sounded like an ad that the LDS runs on TV all the time.

    I'm beginning to think he's toast. He gets reamed over never showing up for work and then a big vote comes up and once again he doesn't show up.

    Supposedly Christie has pulled ahead of him in NH. I guess we soon shall see what happens there.

    Parent

    I was asking a Republican friend here (none / 0) (#101)
    by Militarytracy on Fri Jan 08, 2016 at 09:27:20 AM EST
    Last night who he supported. He said he started out with Carson, and then there was the psycho stuff.. beat your mom with a hammer, knife your friend but saved by the belt buckle. So he moved onto the Donald. But the whole repeating over and over again, "I'm gonna build a wall and Mexico's paying" started to sound ridiculous....so now it's  Rubio. Yes, Rubio, that's the ticket :) Except...all the things KeysDan now brings up.

    Remember all that hell Obama got about buying that house and then the lot nextdoor, and the house turned into a decent investment? Good luck Rubio. Good luck Republican voters trying to find someone you can ethically vote for without the rest of us breaking into giggles :)

    They hate Christie here. He worked with Obama. My God, they even have photos of him hugging Obama.

    Parent

    Oh, yeah (none / 0) (#103)
    by Ga6thDem on Fri Jan 08, 2016 at 10:15:07 AM EST
    they abhor Christie down here. However that doesn't affect his chances in NH.

    In a weird way it seems to be a repeat of 2012 except for Donald. Nothing Donald says seems to change his voting base. It's a different story for the rest of them it seems.

    Parent

    Ha! The only reason why this (5.00 / 1) (#105)
    by Militarytracy on Fri Jan 08, 2016 at 10:31:12 AM EST
    Guy keeps changing out is because he works on a military post. He's a GS employee. But soldiers always gotta have something to laugh about, running around pretending to stab each other, it gets to you after awhile. And they just won't quit, they won't let it go.

    And then the Latin American soldiers going to school here and those working the Spanish only air tower start imitating Donald Trump's wall building speeches....after awhile it gets to a poor old white guy. All these punks, laughing at your peeps :)

    Parent

    N H (none / 0) (#144)
    by Amiss on Fri Jan 08, 2016 at 08:02:25 PM EST
    There are so many here,( I live between Manchester and Nashua) that it gives me a gigantic headache, these days.

    Parent
    Clinton, (none / 0) (#10)
    by lentinel on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 04:25:50 PM EST
    Hillary that is, also declared herself to being a "moderate".

    That shows you how absolutely meaningless the designation is.

    Clinton and Rubio.
    Two "moderates".

    Parent

    Rubio (5.00 / 3) (#24)
    by jbindc on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 05:25:54 PM EST
    Is a moderate, because the competition is bat$hit crazy.

    Hillary is moderate on some things, was to the left of Obama on others, and is out flanking Bernie on the left on banking reform.

    While you consider "moderate" a bad word, please realize that you are very much to the left of most voters, including most Democrats.

    Parent

    Uh...Clinton is outflanking Sanders (5.00 / 1) (#28)
    by Anne on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 05:34:30 PM EST
    on the left on banking reform?  I don't think so.

    Just because the competition is loony doesn't make Rubio a moderate; if you look at his ideas and policy positions, it's pretty clear that he's nowhere near moderate territory.  His demeanor - well, aside from his robotic, algorithmic way of reeling off mini-speeches - is processed as fairly pleasant, but that doesn't make him a moderate.

    And whatever it is you or anyone decide he is, or isn't, I don't think it's going to help him; he doesn't seem to realize that even though it looks like maybe he could catch up to Trump and Cruz, they are at least a lap-and-then-some ahead of him.  

    Parent

    Uh, yes she is (5.00 / 1) (#37)
    by jbindc on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 06:10:59 PM EST
    Maybe you didn't read this when  posted it before, but Bernie'sanders thing is Break up the Banks! Without a lot more detail.

    Her plan works more on regulation and goes much further, especially on the detail.

    Parent

    Paul Krugman (none / 0) (#39)
    by jbindc on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 06:21:41 PM EST
    A fan, thinks HRC's plan is better too.

    Parent
    Hillary does seem to be (5.00 / 1) (#41)
    by CaptHowdy on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 06:26:29 PM EST
    Robert Reich does not agree; (none / 0) (#84)
    by Anne on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 09:33:42 PM EST
    And I don't think know Rubio is a modetate (5.00 / 1) (#38)
    by jbindc on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 06:12:57 PM EST
    I said he looks like one because everyone else is so bat$hit crazy.

    Parent
    Rubio (none / 0) (#65)
    by lentinel on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 07:05:46 PM EST
    is as nutty as the rest.

    When he invokes religion, he makes my flesh crawl.

    How anyone could think that this guy is less crazy than the others is a mystery to me.

    I suppose it's about physical appearance.

    Rubio has been touted as, "handsome" by the men and boys of the media.

    He looks good in a suit.

    His hair isn't as indefinable as Trumps, nor quite as screwy as poor old disregarded Rand, or as fixed as flaky Florina...

    But that's about it.

    Does anyone have friends who are moderately so?
    Does anyone like food that is moderately tasty?

    Nuts.

    Parent

    There is some legitimate (none / 0) (#30)
    by CaptHowdy on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 05:36:38 PM EST
    Voices saying she is.  Barney Frank for one.  I don't pretend to understand all the issues but it's not as simple as that.

    Parent
    Barney (none / 0) (#31)
    by CaptHowdy on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 05:39:36 PM EST
    Was on Chris Hayes show last night clearly telling him stuff he did not want to hear you should listen.  He got hm off quickly and went to a Bernie supporter who "disagreed"

    Parent
    It's the (none / 0) (#32)
    by CaptHowdy on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 05:46:15 PM EST
    (Sigh!) No small wonder why ... (none / 0) (#77)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 07:52:13 PM EST
    CaptHowdy: "Barney [w]as on Chris Hayes show last night clearly telling him stuff he did not want to hear you should listen.  He got [him] off quickly and went to a Bernie supporter who 'disagreed[.]'"

    ... I'm spending more that 90% of my TV news time these days at Al Jazeera America and the BBC. If I want to be spun, then I'll return in my next life as a Kenmore washer / dryer combo.

    ;-)

    Parent

    Rubio (5.00 / 1) (#48)
    by FlJoe on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 06:37:25 PM EST
    is a moderate only because the Overton window in the Republican party has shifted into la-la land.

     IMO Hillary is dead center moderate in the Democratic party whose window is finally shifting back to the left. Thanks in no small part to Bernie and his supporters.

    I respect the ideas and passion of Bernie's supporter but over and over again I am disappointed by their lack of awareness of their relative extremism. Some of the more sanctimonious of them paint a garden variety Democrat (with a lightning rod name) and a solid resume as somehow "unclean".

    Parent

    I am (none / 0) (#60)
    by lentinel on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 06:59:01 PM EST
    posting an opinion on talkLEFT.

    So, yes.

    I am a leftist.

    And, apparently, that makes me to the left of what remains of the Democratic party.

    Parent

    what would you do (none / 0) (#11)
    by CST on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 04:36:41 PM EST
    with 700 million dollars?

    I can't fathom it (5.00 / 2) (#14)
    by shoephone on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 04:51:34 PM EST
    but I won $7 on last night's Powerball. So, I'm $5 ahead.

    Parent
    LOL, don't spend it all at once! (none / 0) (#43)
    by vml68 on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 06:32:23 PM EST
    The only time I buy lottery tickets is when I am making a long distance drive and I stop to fill gas at some out of the way, small mom and pop station.
    The last time I did that was just before Christmas and I won $5 on a Mega Millions ticket!

    Parent
    I don't buy them often, but (5.00 / 1) (#67)
    by shoephone on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 07:07:14 PM EST
    when I have, I've won a little something about 20% of the time. Three times in one year I won $30 each on both a Lotto and Mega Millions ticket.

    Here's my strategy:

    1. Only buy one ticket
    2. Let the machine pick the numbers
    3. Don't be too attached to winning
    4. If I win, I'm ahead
    5. If I lose, I've only lost one dollar on a Lotto, or two dollars on a Powerball. (And I've only bought a Powerball ticket twice in my life. Yesterday was the second time.)

    I'm going to buy myself lunch with my big $7 winnings. :-)

    Parent
    this is also my second time playing (none / 0) (#100)
    by CST on Fri Jan 08, 2016 at 09:25:49 AM EST
    The first time was on a trip with a friend and she was gung-ho and I thought - why not?  But this is the first time I went out and bought one on my own.  Never bought a scratch ticket/Mega Millions, etc...

    I'll probably wait 10 years before doing it again, but it is kind of fun to think about.

    I'd probably take the annuity since I hope to be alive in 30 years, and frankly, I'm not sure I'd trust myself with that much cash all at once.

    Parent

    My (now) son-in-law (5.00 / 2) (#107)
    by Anne on Fri Jan 08, 2016 at 11:10:22 AM EST
    won $10,000 in the Powerball - or it might have been the MegaMillions - about 5 years ago; he paid off some bills and bought my daughter an engagement ring.

    About two months ago, we won $500 on a MD Lottery scratch-off, the second time that's happened for us; it was kind of serendipity: we had had some renovation work done in our basement, as a result of the water damage from our well tank bursting, and our winnings covered our insurance deductible.  

    Worked for me!

    I'm pretty sure my destiny does not include winning hundreds of millions of dollars, but it's fun thinking about the good I could do in the world if I did.

    Parent

    FWIW... (none / 0) (#102)
    by ScottW714 on Fri Jan 08, 2016 at 10:01:35 AM EST
    ...if you buy one ticket, buy two, it doubles you odds for $2, every one after that increases your odds, but nowhere nearly doubling them.  From something like 1:2.8M to 1:1.4M

    I stopped to get gas Wednesday night, my local station was full of people buying tickets, they had one guy running the machine only, it was absolutely nuts.  No way was I waiting in line.  I wonder if it will be worse today, I might have to stop somewhere else to get my name in the hat.

    Parent

    When I buy (none / 0) (#114)
    by sj on Fri Jan 08, 2016 at 01:16:48 PM EST
    I buy two: one quick pick and one with the family numbers.

    Parent
    Fake my own death and (5.00 / 2) (#15)
    by CaptHowdy on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 05:01:40 PM EST
    And robbery of the entire amount and go someplace my parasitic relatives coukd not find me.    

    Parent
    The short answer is: (5.00 / 1) (#19)
    by Anne on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 05:08:16 PM EST
    whatever I want...

    The longer answer is:

    First, the cash option is about $430 million; after taxes, it's down to about $280 million.

    So, what would I do with $280 million?

    1.  Be anonymous (in MD you can do that)

    2.  Retain an attorney and an investment advisor

    3.  Make cash gifts to my family members within the gift limits ($14,000, but with the ability to split gifts with my husband, this is more than you think); plan to do this every year.

    4.  Pay for additions to my children's homes

    5.  Set up and fund trusts to ensure that my children and grandchildren will be provided for forever and college will be paid for.

    6.  Re-do our estate plan, because now we'd actually need one.

    7.  Start a charitable foundation

    8.  Hire an architect and a landscape firm and completely renovate our house

    9.  Plan a family trip

    10.  Retire!

    11.  Try not to freak out - that kind of money's kind of scary, actually.


    Parent
    Not that I've given it that much thought... (5.00 / 1) (#22)
    by Anne on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 05:19:49 PM EST
    but let's face it: thinking about what you'd do with lottery winnings is about the cheapest entertainment anywhere!

    Parent
    That is (none / 0) (#25)
    by sj on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 05:29:32 PM EST
    eerily similar to my answer. I even have the name and focus of the charitable foundation. On number 4 I would add siblings as well and children.

    And sadly, most of number 5 is not available to me.

    When my grandmothers were alive I also had, at my son's suggestion:

    12. Provide a car and driver to take my grandmothers wherever and whenever they wanted to go.

    Parent

    Oh, "family" includes my sibling, (none / 0) (#33)
    by Anne on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 05:51:17 PM EST
    my husband's siblings, and their spouses, children and grandchildren.  And my mother, of course!

    There's no way we could come into that kind of money and leave anyone in the family out.

    And like I said, annual exclusion gifts add up: I can give $14K to each of my daughter, son-in-law and grandkids, for a total of $56K; my husband can give the same, for another $56K.  

    Parent

    I'd buy a private jet and never wait in line again (none / 0) (#29)
    by Mr Natural on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 05:35:50 PM EST
    I'd also buy a few politicians.  With enough legally laundered bribery they might be convinced to work on behalf of citizens instead of their current bosses, the lobbyists and bundlers.


    Parent
    Have a Gigantic Coronary... (5.00 / 4) (#21)
    by ScottW714 on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 05:17:51 PM EST
    ...then I have no idea beyond some sort of glorious departure from the J O B.  Might even hire actors & dancers to make it a memorable performance of 'kiss my @ss mothafockers'.

    Parent
    Honestly, I have no desire to win/have (5.00 / 2) (#40)
    by vml68 on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 06:25:43 PM EST
    that much money. IMO, it only brings misery but that is probably because I am the kind of person that does not want the responsibility or changes to my life that that kind of money brings.

    For someone who has probably bought about 10 lottery tickets in her lifetime, I have spent a surprising amount of time contemplating just how much I would be comfortable winning and what I would do with it. I have come to the conclusion that 5 million is about right for me. I would use it to take lavish vacations with family (husband, parents, sibling and neices) and would not change anything else about my life. I would be able to buy a house with cash instead of getting a mortgage but I would not spend anymore on it than I would if I did not win.

    Parent

    I second that (5.00 / 1) (#55)
    by Repack Rider on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 06:52:12 PM EST
    I have never bought a lottery ticket.  First reason is easy, I don't gamble.

    Second reason is that it is a regressive tax that preys on those who need money more than I do.  In California it is supposed to be for the schools, but it also goes to support a lot of fat paychecks.

    One common phrase is "play responsibly."  I do by not playing, but the cynic in me wants to know what "irresponsible playing" looks like.  Orwell would be proud of the substitution of the verb "play" for "gamble."  "Gamboling" is playing, gambling is not.  

    Who does it and what are the consequences?  Where and how is the line drawn between "responsible gambling" and...

    Wait.  There is no such thing as "responsible gambling."  It's an oxymoron.

    Parent

    If $5M is Your Ideal Amount... (none / 0) (#104)
    by ScottW714 on Fri Jan 08, 2016 at 10:19:01 AM EST
    ... you should play another lottery with better odds in which the payout is in your range.

    I know for an almost fact that winning would not be good for my life expectancy.  I would pack a lot of fun in those years, but without work, school, a budget, or gf keeping me in check...   Add in my friends and it would be ridiculously sad.

    I remember reading about a guy in England that won the lottery and his insanity, like buying everyone he knew a brand new car, then having a smash up derby with them.  While that isn't really my speed, I am pretty sure the infamous lottery curse would find me sooner or later.

    Parent

    "a smash up derby" (none / 0) (#115)
    by Mr Natural on Fri Jan 08, 2016 at 01:21:05 PM EST
    Sounds like W.C. Fields' dream of retribution, in If I had a Million.

    I could not find the entire clip.

    Parent

    I would not mind playing the other kinds (none / 0) (#119)
    by vml68 on Fri Jan 08, 2016 at 02:34:27 PM EST
    of lottery for fun occasionally but I don't really know much about them other than they are scratch-offs. So, I don't really know what to ask for. A new subject for me to research!

    Like you and CST have mentioned, I don't trust myself with that kind of money. I have a feeling trouble will find me and I will go along!

    No matter how much people say that large sums of money won't change them, I truly believe that it is not true for most of us.
    But, I also believe there is a difference in how most people handle extreme wealth if they have earned it vs winning it in a lottery.


    Parent

    p.s. (5.00 / 2) (#122)
    by CST on Fri Jan 08, 2016 at 03:10:35 PM EST
    Can I just say that I love all the good Democrats here who would find ways to give their friends/relatives money without paying taxes :)

    Parent
    It's not like it's a secret, or (5.00 / 2) (#136)
    by Anne on Fri Jan 08, 2016 at 04:29:55 PM EST
    anything...you are allowed to give up to $14,000 per individual without having to file a gift tax return or use any of your lifetime gift tax exemption - which for 2016 is pretty significant: $5.45 million.

    Gift tax is tied to the estate tax, such that lifetime gifts in excess of the annual exclusion amount count against the estate tax exemption when you die.  Any unused exemption in the estate of the first spouse to die is "portable" and can be used in the estate of the second to die, in addition to the exemption available to him or her.  Catch is you have to elect that portability by filing an estate tax return, even if no return is required.  Potentially, the second spouse could shelter up to $10.9 million from estate tax.

    For what it's worth, this is largely thanks to Republicans, who'd really just like to eliminate the estate tax altogether; Democrats just get to take advantage of it, like anyone else.

    There's no tax to the recipient for getting the gift.

    This is probably way more than you ever wanted to know about gift and estate tax, so, sorry about that!

    Parent

    No need to apologize! (5.00 / 1) (#141)
    by sj on Fri Jan 08, 2016 at 05:37:29 PM EST
    I'm grateful for the information. After all, I want to be prepared to properly manage that multi-million dollar windfall :)

    Parent
    Think bigger, Anne. Set up a (none / 0) (#145)
    by Mr Natural on Fri Jan 08, 2016 at 09:21:06 PM EST
    GRAT. [wikipedia]  Loan it $10 or $20 to buy the winning Powerball ticket.  Win.  With the winnings, the GRAT repays the $10 or $20 loan.  Die while the GRAT remains in effect.  Your heirs get every penny, and more importantly, every million, that you won - less the $10 or $20.

    Pretty cool, huh?  It's rather touching, I think, that Bloomberg calls this an "accidental" tax break.


    Parent

    I'm familiar with GRATs, GRITs, (none / 0) (#147)
    by Anne on Fri Jan 08, 2016 at 10:04:52 PM EST
    GRUTs, CRUTs, CRATs, QPRTs, and a lot of other vehicles for sheltering assets and minimizing taxes, but could not imagine the TL community would be interested in such an esoteric discussion; figured that's what a lottery winner would pay an estate-planner for!

    Parent
    Buy a new pair of running shoes (none / 0) (#58)
    by CoralGables on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 06:55:44 PM EST
    Buy each member... (5.00 / 1) (#106)
    by kdog on Fri Jan 08, 2016 at 10:59:14 AM EST
    of my newly formed, not so well regulated, unarmed militia of pranksters for peace a new pair of tie-dyed Chuck Taylors.

    And make sure to save a couple mil for bail and lawyers.  

    Yeah with 700 mil I'd raise an army of trouble and lots of it.  Y'all never shoulda gave this cracker money!!!

    Parent

    Saturday is too late to win for me (none / 0) (#137)
    by CoralGables on Fri Jan 08, 2016 at 04:37:10 PM EST
    I've already ordered a new pair for my next marathon. Guess the balance just goes in the bank now. (I know you don't approve of that)

    Parent
    Well (none / 0) (#59)
    by TrevorBolder on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 06:58:03 PM EST
    79 people at work all put in $5, we will be buying $395 worth of tickets
    The Department will be decimated if we hit

    Parent
    New boat (5.00 / 1) (#128)
    by fishcamp on Fri Jan 08, 2016 at 03:36:20 PM EST
    Down here at fishcamp would be welcome.

    Parent
    I would buy a Gunboat (none / 0) (#163)
    by ragebot on Sat Jan 09, 2016 at 02:39:40 PM EST
    In sailboat racing a gun is fired as the first boat crosses the finish line and that boat is referred to as a Gunboat.

    Current price is not at about $US2,500,00 with no options.  But I am sure I would want some options, especially the one that shows up about the 14 second mark of this video.  Also note the Maltese Falcon, a real super yacht that shows up about the 40 second mark.

    Parent

    Ted Talk (none / 0) (#26)
    by CaptHowdy on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 05:29:52 PM EST
    Rep. Alan Grayson of Florida, an attorney and Democratic Senate candidate, tells U.S. News he will file a lawsuit challenging Cruz's eligibility should he overtake Trump and win the nomination -- a scenario that's at least plausible with the senator besting Trump in some Iowa polls.

    Cruz was born in Calgary, Canada, in 1970 to an American mother and a Cuban father who later gained U.S. citizenship. There's no court precedent on whether foreign-born Americans meet the Constitution's "natural-born citizen" requirement, but there's more to scrutiny of Cruz's eligibility.

    "If he's not qualified to be president according to our Constitution, then he certainly should not serve," Grayson says, poring over his notes for the possible lawsuit. "There's quite a lot of stuff here."



    More (none / 0) (#27)
    by CaptHowdy on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 05:32:09 PM EST
    In addition to the question of whether Cruz's birth in Canada disqualifies him from being considered a natural-born citizen, for which there are clashing historical claims, Grayson notes there's disagreement about whether both parents of U.S. citizens born overseas must be citizens.

    And then there's Cruz's mother, Eleanor Cruz.

    Grayson says Cruz may have forfeited her U.S. citizenship by taking a Canadian oath of citizenship, and that he's seen no evidence she actually was born in the U.S.

    Cruz's mother "may have elected to give up her U.S. citizenship -- she wasn't there on a visitor's visa for five years, that's for sure," he says.

    Grayson says "if his mother, who clearly worked in Canada for years and years, did so while becoming a Canadian citizen and taking an oath, which is how you do it in Canada, she lost her citizenship by U.S. law, specifically Section 349 of the Immigration and Nationality Act."



    Parent
    The whole citizenship eligibility (5.00 / 1) (#35)
    by KeysDan on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 06:03:05 PM EST
    is ironic.  Can't think of a better object of the boomerang than Cruz.  Unless, it was Trump, but Queens is king in that case. Just about everything else makes Trump ineligible for president.

    Parent
    I had not seen (none / 0) (#36)
    by CaptHowdy on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 06:08:48 PM EST
    The stuff about his mother.  Would like to know if "legal minds" think there is anything to that.

    If her citizen ship was in any sort of question that seems to me would put things in a different light.

    Or not.  How would I know?

    I was told when I was investigating that the US did not recognize Canadian citizenship even if you got it unless you renounced your US citizenship.   But even that was not from an attorney.

    Parent

    I think (none / 0) (#47)
    by Ga6thDem on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 06:36:17 PM EST
    you can have dual citizenship with Canada but not sure about that. I do know some people that went to live in Canada for five years. She was/is a Canadian citizen being born there but I believe she is able to vote in elections here in the states. I'm not sure if her husband had to take on some kind of Canadian citizenship to live there or if being married to her was enough. Both of their kids were born in the US and went to school here all the way through high school. Then they both went to college in Canada and now both live in Canada.

    Parent
    Sound a little muddled (none / 0) (#50)
    by CaptHowdy on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 06:38:33 PM EST
    To me.

    Parent
    Yeah, (none / 0) (#52)
    by Ga6thDem on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 06:42:07 PM EST
    I should ask them if they bring up the issue on Facebook about Cruz and see what their take is. However, if the mother did become a Canadian citizen for a short time they may not have any answers either. Cruz's situation is different than theirs but Heather probably knows what goes on with immigration to a some extent having dealt with it herself.

    Parent
    5 years (none / 0) (#53)
    by CaptHowdy on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 06:46:26 PM EST
    Is not a short time

    Parent
    The US and Canada both recognize (none / 0) (#54)
    by vml68 on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 06:51:38 PM EST
    dual citizenship. What I am curious about is since he only recently gave up his Canadian citizenship, which country was he paying taxes to?

    Parent
    What I remember being told (5.00 / 1) (#57)
    by CaptHowdy on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 06:55:39 PM EST
    Is the the US "sort of" recognizes it but they legally consider you a US cituzen unless you renounce.  But as I said that was just from others who had gone through the process.  And it was 12 years ago.

    Parent
    Don't know if this helps... (none / 0) (#62)
    by vml68 on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 07:02:50 PM EST
    I think you have to pay (none / 0) (#61)
    by CaptHowdy on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 07:01:53 PM EST
    Taxes where you earn it.  Right?

    I had to pay Canadian taxes when I worked but Califirnia also got a slice.  I don't think that's true for all states.  Might be because of the film industry so many travel to work in.

    Parent

    Usually. The US taxes all income (none / 0) (#66)
    by vml68 on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 07:07:10 PM EST
    earned anywhere in the world. My parents are not US citizens and have never earned a dime in this country and have no investments in this country but as US residents (Green Card holders), they are required to pay taxes to the US.

    Parent
    I had my taxes professionally (none / 0) (#69)
    by CaptHowdy on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 07:11:14 PM EST
    Done and I honestly don't remember.  Except that it was a nightmare.  But I thought there was a credit or something that saved me from paying double federal tax.

    Parent
    My answer is a bit simplistic. But, as you (none / 0) (#72)
    by vml68 on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 07:14:54 PM EST
    know the tax code is pretty complicated.
    There are exceptions, e.g., if you are a US citizen who lives and works elsewhere and have to pay taxes in the country you are residing in. Most people find that to be a very complicated and expensive affair. I have read quite a few articles about people renouncing their US citizenship in those situations, not because they really want to, but because the whole tax situation is so burdensome.

    Parent
    Tax code (5.00 / 1) (#74)
    by CaptHowdy on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 07:25:28 PM EST
    When I first got here, not wanting to travels to work any more and not being old enough of SS I looked for a simple local part time job.  
    I responded to an ad for part time at H&R Block.  They have a sort of school that starts in August and goes till the beginning of tax season.

    Oh. My. God.

    Complicated does not cover it.  I'm a pretty smart guy and I have had some very technical jobs but, wow.   Around about November I took the lady aside and said, I'm sorry I'm not getting this.  I can't do this considering the stakes.
    She tried hard to get me to stay.
    I said, you're not listening.  You do not want me doing people's taxes.  IM NOT GETTING THIS.
    She did everything she could to get me to stay.  And I know why.  I was at the top of the class.  No one else was getting it either but they just would not admit it.

    Something to think about when you get your taxes done.

    Parent

    Ha! I do my own taxes. (none / 0) (#76)
    by vml68 on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 07:51:23 PM EST
    But, I too took that H&R block class to see if it would help me figure out some tax deductions I was may be missing out on... Nope! Did not learn anything I did not already know.
    We have no kids, no mortgage, etc., nothing to deduct except charitable contributions.

    Parent
    You can sccroll thru IRS Publication 17 (5.00 / 2) (#78)
    by CoralGables on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 08:02:08 PM EST
    and it will lead you to any information that might help. Every now and then something possible pops up.

    Parent
    You made the right choice! (none / 0) (#82)
    by shoephone on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 08:51:55 PM EST
    I had my taxes done by them long ago, when I was just coming out of poverty, finally had gotten a part time job and needed to file. I didn't want to make a mistake and didn't have the money to hire an actual accountant. The idiot at H&R Bloch screwed up my return so badly and I ended up "owing" a ridiculous amount of money, compared to my wages. Unfortunately, it was a last minute filing and I had to get the return and the check to the post office by midnight that night. Later, when I complained to the IRS, they investigated it, and I ended up getting a check from them for part of it.

    I never went back to H&R Bloch. When I started running a business a few short years later, I found a reasonably-priced accountant that I have been using for taxes every year since (almost twenty years now).

    I pity the poor souls who end up using H&R Bloch for their tax filings. IIRC, they have been nailed before for screwing people out of their money.

    Parent

    And they (none / 0) (#83)
    by Ga6thDem on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 08:54:57 PM EST
    charge a freaking fortune at least around here. My sister years ago had them do her taxes. Now she is single and files nothing but an EZ and she paid them something like 200 bucks for it. After I found that out I told her to bring them to me and I would do them with Turbo Tax and charge her 20 bucks to do it.

    Parent
    Well, the EZ is...super easy (none / 0) (#85)
    by shoephone on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 09:45:04 PM EST
    Even I was able to file those, and I have a real phobia of tax forms.

    And I think it was the high fees that H&R got nailed for.

    Friends don't let friends go to H&R Bloch.

    Parent

    Turbo Tax (5.00 / 4) (#95)
    by jbindc on Fri Jan 08, 2016 at 07:40:09 AM EST
    Walks you through everything - even if you don't fill out an EZ form.

    I can't recommend it enough.

    Parent

    Me too - love it (none / 0) (#124)
    by ruffian on Fri Jan 08, 2016 at 03:21:46 PM EST
    Yes, I have been using it for the past 10 (none / 0) (#132)
    by vml68 on Fri Jan 08, 2016 at 03:45:36 PM EST
    or so years. Makes life a whole lot easier. Best part is being able to import all the info without having to key it all in.


    Parent
    I am a living testament (none / 0) (#126)
    by CaptHowdy on Fri Jan 08, 2016 at 03:23:51 PM EST
    For not using H & R Block.

    Parent
    Candy Block, daughter of the (none / 0) (#97)
    by fishcamp on Fri Jan 08, 2016 at 08:29:51 AM EST
    H&R Block family, lived in Aspen for years.  She and her boyfriend started using man tan on their skin at the beginning of the season and by April they were both bright orange.  The boyfriend was later murdered by car bomb, in the Aspen Club parking lot.  He was due to testify at a drug trial in N.J.  He didn't make it to the trial.

    Parent
    Some times I think you (none / 0) (#125)
    by CaptHowdy on Fri Jan 08, 2016 at 03:22:48 PM EST
    Make this stuff up.

    I have a crazy friend from college days who was terribly scarred from just under his arms to the waist. It didn't show up when he was dressed except a bit on one arm.

    Any way, I have known him for years and every time I have heard anyone ask how he got scarred he tells a different story.
    I could tell you the one he told me but I have n confidence it's true.

    Parent

    It gets rather boring to repeat the (none / 0) (#127)
    by MO Blue on Fri Jan 08, 2016 at 03:35:40 PM EST
    Same factual story over and over again and over again. After what seems like the thousandth time, you have to change the story or die of boredom.

    Parent
    He was completely insane (none / 0) (#130)
    by CaptHowdy on Fri Jan 08, 2016 at 03:42:23 PM EST
    He was a potter so he often had clay on his hands.  He would cut the pockets out f his jeans and ask girls walking through the art department to get change out can his pocket of the Coke machine.

    Of course no respectable person in the day wore underwater.

    Parent

    Underwear (none / 0) (#131)
    by CaptHowdy on Fri Jan 08, 2016 at 03:43:09 PM EST
    Some Republicans are (none / 0) (#44)
    by MO Blue on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 06:34:44 PM EST
    Going all "birther" on Cruz. Trump, Paul, Coulter and McCain to name a few. Personally I think it is really, really funny.

    Parent
    Oh me too (none / 0) (#49)
    by CaptHowdy on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 06:37:28 PM EST
    But it does sort of appear to be a different sort of thing than the Obana thing.
    It's a right winger who started it.

    Parent
    They eat their own (5.00 / 1) (#81)
    by Mr Natural on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 08:43:00 PM EST
    Oh, this must be (none / 0) (#112)
    by KeysDan on Fri Jan 08, 2016 at 12:46:53 PM EST
    the reason Cruz's voice is so high.

    Parent
    Fun (none / 0) (#42)
    by Ga6thDem on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 06:30:56 PM EST
    but I'd rather beat Cruz on the issues. This kind of think is a hydra to me.

    Parent
    I asked (none / 0) (#45)
    by CaptHowdy on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 06:35:41 PM EST
    If there is anything to the mother thing.  I don't think it is.  It's fairly straight forward.  Was she a citizen or not. I don't know.  But it's not an unfair question.  Even if birtherism never happened.

    Parent
    She was born in Wilmington, Delaware (none / 0) (#94)
    by jbindc on Fri Jan 08, 2016 at 07:37:04 AM EST
    And is three quarters Irish and one quarter Italian.

    His parents were working in Calgary at the time of his birth as owners of a seismic data processing film for oil drilling.

    So sayeth Wikipedia.

    Parent

    I need to see (none / 0) (#123)
    by CaptHowdy on Fri Jan 08, 2016 at 03:19:55 PM EST
    Documentation

    Parent
    Grayson is as nutty (and as smart) as Cruz (none / 0) (#63)
    by CoralGables on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 07:03:38 PM EST
    but without the platform to draw as much attention to his silliness.

    Parent
    Very good (none / 0) (#64)
    by CaptHowdy on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 07:05:40 PM EST
    Description.  Exactly.  Bizarro Ted Cruz.

    Parent
    That said (none / 0) (#68)
    by CaptHowdy on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 07:08:23 PM EST
    He didn't start this.  He just jumped in and vowed to file the lawsuit it was being speculated "might be" filed of Cruz won the nomination.

    Parent
    Maine residents should bolt their doors ... (none / 0) (#79)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Thu Jan 07, 2016 at 08:14:11 PM EST
    ... and shutter their windows, because according to Gov. Paul LePage, heroin addicts named "D-Money," "Smoothie" and "Shifty" are streaming north from Connecticut and New York to impregnate the state's young white women.

    Forget the pitcher of margaritas. I'm just going to guzzle a bottle of Mezcal, and then fry the worm in my bong.

    >:-(

    Dealers, not Addicts... (none / 0) (#108)
    by kdog on Fri Jan 08, 2016 at 11:12:59 AM EST
    Black drug dealers from the south are shootin' and knockin' up the white women of Maine according to the dishonorable governor...not addicts.  He's a compassionate conservative Don.

    And if it's drug dealers he's after, I'd see if there are any Bush's left in Kennebunkport.  That's a layup bust right there!

    And he's wrong about D-Money, I know him and he don't f*ck with the smack, he's an auto mechanic.

    Parent

    hey now (none / 0) (#113)
    by CST on Fri Jan 08, 2016 at 12:56:50 PM EST
    "streaming north from Connecticut"

    Maybe he was talking about the Bush family all along ;)

    I don't think black guys are knocking up too many white women in Maine.  If they were, you'd see a lot more diversity.

    Also, anyone paying attention knows that Heroin is the new white people drug and if it's coming from any minority it's your asian doctor (not that that's where it's primarily coming from, just saying).

    Maine has always been the Alabama of New England, but this governor is taking it to a whole 'nother level.  Which is a shame really, because Maine could probably use someone who is capable of solving real problems.

    Parent

    Gov. LePage is a right-wing lunatic. (none / 0) (#118)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Fri Jan 08, 2016 at 02:04:58 PM EST
    But it appears that Maine's citizenry have finally if belatedly awakened to that fact, because the governor may well be subjected to a formal censure -- and perhaps even impeachment and removal -- by the state legislature, which convened for its 2016 session two days ago.

    Parent
    Charlie Pierce has dubbed him (5.00 / 1) (#120)
    by Anne on Fri Jan 08, 2016 at 02:45:14 PM EST
    "the human bowling jacket," a phrase that makes me laugh.

    Which would be okay if he wasn't the governor, but that he is, well, I just don't know what to think about the people of Maine that they elected this guy.

    Not even sure The Onion could have created LePage.

    Parent

    Republicans are always trying to make (none / 0) (#148)
    by Militarytracy on Fri Jan 08, 2016 at 11:59:13 PM EST
    It a jungle out there. But if I get knocked up by the king of the jungle, that's a bad thing?

    Whatever happened to survival of the fittest?

    Parent

    Terrorism, plain and simple (none / 0) (#96)
    by jbindc on Fri Jan 08, 2016 at 08:04:34 AM EST
    The government closed its offices in Oregon days before the armed takeover due to fears of violence

    The federal government began shutting its offices in Eastern Oregon days before the showdown with armed anti-government protesters began this week because of mounting hostility and security threats, officials said Thursday.

    With threats against individual employees and a campaign of intimidation by out-of-town ranchers who had been in the isolated area for weeks, federal officials at agencies from the U.S. Forest Service to the Bureau of Land Management started sending more than 150 people home as early as Dec. 30.

    That was three days before a group calling itself Citizens for Constitutional Freedom holed up with guns inside a wildlife sanctuary in remote Harney County to protest the arson conviction of two local cattle ranchers who set fires to federal lands.



    "Terrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrorism? (none / 0) (#98)
    by Mr Natural on Fri Jan 08, 2016 at 08:36:25 AM EST
    Where are the dead bodies?

    Parent
    Sh*t... (5.00 / 2) (#109)
    by kdog on Fri Jan 08, 2016 at 11:16:16 AM EST
    I'm starting to think it's just a scam for rubes to send money and care packages. A 21st Century America Get Rich Quick Scheme.

    Step #1...Do something stupid that angry white people will appreciate.

    Step #2...Ask for support and donations online.

    Step #3...Check your paypal.

    Parent

    The billion dollar question (none / 0) (#110)
    by CST on Fri Jan 08, 2016 at 12:18:26 PM EST
    from the NYTimes this morning:

    "Can U.S. Remain an Island of Stability in the Global Economy?"

    Conclusion - they seem to think that the U.S. economy may face another bubble of sorts because everyone else is looking for someplace "stable" to put their money.  Which, frankly, is an interesting idea I hadn't considered, but is certainly playing out in real estate markets in a lot of places.

    Expect Jerlyn to start a thread on (none / 0) (#111)
    by ragebot on Fri Jan 08, 2016 at 12:42:17 PM EST
    el Chapo capture.  Just a heads up.

    Hopefully his next escape (none / 0) (#116)
    by Mr Natural on Fri Jan 08, 2016 at 01:24:49 PM EST
    will be equally dramatic.

    Parent
    I seriously doubt that ... (none / 0) (#117)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Fri Jan 08, 2016 at 01:53:28 PM EST
    ... Mexican officials are going to entertain the possibility of a repeat performance. Joaquin Guzman was captured by Mexican marine commandos after naval officials, acting on a tip, launched an early dawn raid on a house in the city of Los Mochis, which is in Sinaloa on the Gulf of California coast. Five people were killed in the brief firefight, and one marine was wounded. Per the Associated Press (via Hawaii News Now):

    "[The] Mexican Navy says that marines seized two armored vehicles, eight rifles, one handgun and a rocket-propelled grenade launcher in the raid that captured fugitive drug lord Joaquin El Chapo' Guzman.

    "Photos of the arms seized suggested that Guzman and his associates had a fearsome arsenal at the non-descript white house in which he was hiding.

    "Two of the rifles seized were .50-caliber sniper guns, capable of penetrating most bullet-proof vests and cars. The grenade launcher was found loaded, with an extra round nearby. And an assault rifle had a .40 mm grenade launcher, and at least one grenade."

    Mexico's Marine Corps is an integral part of the Mexican Navy, which is the least corrupted of the country's military and police forces. If I had to guess, I'd venture that "El Chapo" will likely remain in Navy custody.

    Aloha.

    Parent

    Court block's judges order in Freddie Gray trial (none / 0) (#121)
    by McBain on Fri Jan 08, 2016 at 02:47:19 PM EST
    Link
    A Maryland appeals court on Friday temporarily blocked a lower court order that required a Baltimore police officer, William G. Porter, to testify against a colleague set to go on trial next week on murder charges in the death of Freddie Gray.

    Judge Williams's original ruling didn't seem fair to Porter, who's case will be retried later in the year.  

    Clinton's private conversations with Tony Blair (none / 0) (#129)
    by Mr Natural on Fri Jan 08, 2016 at 03:38:09 PM EST
    were recently released by the Clinton Presidential Library.

    As for the election, which Bush eventually won, Clinton said at one point about the Republicans; 'They hate us more than we hate them.'

    He later added; 'They don't care as much about government. They just want the power.'

    - New York Times (13 images)

    Fakes reported in the Independent

    The Fake Blair-Clinton conversations (none / 0) (#133)
    by Mr Natural on Fri Jan 08, 2016 at 03:49:50 PM EST
    are here at a comedian's tumblr.

    Stay on this page if you're at work.  Tumblr's bloggers can be very expressive.

    Parent

    Charles Koch (none / 0) (#134)
    by Ga6thDem on Fri Jan 08, 2016 at 03:56:06 PM EST
    whines about his lack of influence within the GOP these days. I would put up a link but the site freezes my browser.

    I can't even bust out (5.00 / 1) (#135)
    by CST on Fri Jan 08, 2016 at 03:57:33 PM EST
    my tiny violin for that.

    Parent
    He should run himself next time (5.00 / 1) (#146)
    by ruffian on Fri Jan 08, 2016 at 09:56:29 PM EST
    cut out the middle men

    Parent
    Yeah... (none / 0) (#138)
    by ScottW714 on Fri Jan 08, 2016 at 04:48:38 PM EST
    ...but he is still giving them damn near a billion dollars.  I wonder if he's mad about republicans, or knowing that hh is not getting what he is paying for.

    Charles Koch is `disappointed' in 2016 Republicans - but will still give $900 million

    The candidates have been given a list of issues Koch wants addressed, despite their opposing opinions on some topics. But even with his considerable financial power, he has not seen many results, he said.

    "It doesn't seem to faze them much. You'd think we could have more influence," he said. "I'm pleased that I can still speak and I'm pleased that it isn't worse. They haven't nationalised all the industries like happened in the UK when the Fabians took over."



    Parent
    I refuse (none / 0) (#139)
    by FlJoe on Fri Jan 08, 2016 at 05:12:33 PM EST
    to believe that he will give a dime to help elect Trump, if he is so smart and such a nice guy with a cool bil to play with wtf doesn't  he run?

    Nah, they will probably just take that money to buy a few senators and state governments, cowards. If there is a hall of fame for disgusting billionaires they are right up there with the Donald.

    Parent

    And he's (none / 0) (#140)
    by Ga6thDem on Fri Jan 08, 2016 at 05:27:40 PM EST
    supposed to be a smart businessman? Looks more like he's one of those people that the old adage about a fool and his money are soon parted was describing.

    Parent
    Working Like Gangbusters... (none / 0) (#183)
    by ScottW714 on Mon Jan 11, 2016 at 11:53:44 AM EST
    ...in Wisconsin.  He's already defeated public unions and decreased spending on education, which apparently is a republican wet dream.

    Parent
    New (none / 0) (#142)
    by FlJoe on Fri Jan 08, 2016 at 07:41:26 PM EST
    Batch of Fox polls out. Biggest surprise is Christie showing no bump, actually losing a point from the last Fox in NH.

    Not much different with Cruz appearing to holding steady while Trump fades 3% in Iowa with Rubio looking like he is heading for an uncontested third(a good thing for him). NH shows Trump solidifying his support gaining 6% everybody else remaining static. Rubio did gain 2% while the rest of the establishment go carts continue to spin their wheels.

    More or less to decent to good results for the top three, but Rubio has a lot  more to worry about though.  

    Their polls (none / 0) (#143)
    by Ga6thDem on Fri Jan 08, 2016 at 08:00:20 PM EST
    are real outliers on the Dem side. I wonder if they're that out of whack on the R side too.

    Parent
    They (5.00 / 1) (#159)
    by FlJoe on Sat Jan 09, 2016 at 12:33:37 PM EST
    get a B from Nate Silver, their methodology and sample size seem solid, all their numbers except Christie's match up with the polls taken over the past 5 weeks.

    24 hours ago I was ready to jump on the Christie's bandwagon in NH(I thought second was possible) but now not so much. Christie did get solid(14%) second choice picks and IMO his style of retail politics is perfect for NH so I won't write him off just yet.

    Bottom line there is way to much churn in Trumps wake in NH to make sense of the race for second.

    Parent

    Fox (none / 0) (#160)
    by Ga6thDem on Sat Jan 09, 2016 at 12:55:50 PM EST
    News polling has a C+ on the link you have.

    Parent
    H.S. Basketball Players Charged With Rape (none / 0) (#149)
    by shoephone on Sat Jan 09, 2016 at 01:24:54 AM EST
    of a fellow teammate, in Ooltewah, Tennessee.

    It's being considered a hazing incident--an exceptionally brutal one at that--which is said to be typical for this high school team.

    A family member of the accuser told The Chattanoogan that the boy "was tortured by three of his teammates." He was reportedly sodomized by a wooden pool cue and suffered from a ruptured colon and bladder. The head coach, Andrew "Tank" Montgomery, took the boy to a nearby hospital the night of the attack, but he was quickly treated and released.

    "He was not given a proper exam and collapsed the following day," the family member said. "Once he collapsed, he was taken by ambulance to the University of Tennessee Medical Center in Knoxville. He had to undergo emergency surgery."

    The freshman spent eight days in the hospital, and now has to wear a catheter and colostomy bag. Physical recovery is supposed to take 2-3 months, but according to his family, the injuries go deeper than that. "[H]e is having nightmares. He has stated that he thought that he was going to die as a result of the assault."

    This story has been in the news for the past two days and yet, I haven't seen anything mentioned about it on TL. And, gee, weird thing: I haven't read of comments on any blogs or news sites accusing the alleged victim of "making it up" or "asking for it."  

    Basketball season has been cancelled. Looks like coach "Tank" Montgomery is going to be made to answer some questions about what goes on with his team, and why he didn't report it to police.

    I actually read this story more than a week (none / 0) (#158)
    by vml68 on Sat Jan 09, 2016 at 12:31:24 PM EST
    ago.
    Honestly, what can one say about it. It is too horrific, too gut wrenching. My heart goes out to the victim and his family.

    I will never understand how it was possible for the perpetrators to be this brutal and soulless and that too, at such a young age.

    Parent

    Sad (none / 0) (#179)
    by ragebot on Sun Jan 10, 2016 at 09:22:50 AM EST
    to know about things like this.  I would point out a lot of what is on the internet is bashed as being click bait.  Not saying this story would not result in clicks.

    On the other hand I have been seeing several links to what is claimed to be a rise in the number of same sex rapes in the military.  Here is the first link that came up in a google search, but there are lots of others.  From the standpoint of an online editor I bet this is better click bait than a single incident.

    Parent

    This horrible p.o.s. (none / 0) (#150)
    by lentinel on Sat Jan 09, 2016 at 08:29:38 AM EST
    from Ted Cruz:

    "In my house, if my daughter Catherine, the 5-year-old, says something she knows to be false, she gets a spanking," Cruz said, standing on the bar of a local shop here, looking into the crowd.

    To my mind, this constitutes abuse.
    On two counts.
    The first is the physical abuse this piece of garbage Cruz is meting out to his 5 year-old.

    The second is announcing this to the world. I can only imagine little Catherine having to read this as she grows up.

    I hope that she gets to kick Teddy in his miniscule decoration when she gets a little older.

    He also (5.00 / 1) (#151)
    by Ga6thDem on Sat Jan 09, 2016 at 08:36:25 AM EST
    suggested that Hillary needed a "spanking" What a disgusting creep he is.

    Parent
    Cruz and dominance (none / 0) (#155)
    by christinep on Sat Jan 09, 2016 at 11:35:05 AM EST
    Well, Cruz certainly made clear his attitude and approach towards adult women as well as his punitive approach toward children.  (My goodness, he makes Trump seem forward thinking, even.)

    BTW, in looking at TPM this a.m., I noticed a story about Cruz' mother being on the voting roles in Canada at the time of son's birth.  That could be hoo-hah interesting....

    Parent

    Cruz's remarks are another direct appeal (none / 0) (#185)
    by jondee on Mon Jan 11, 2016 at 02:14:26 PM EST
    to the folks nostalgic for the days when the family patriarch ruled with the Biblical "rod of correction"..and uppity women and children knew their place in the divine pecking order..

    I'd expect nothing less from a guy who had no problem with his pastor calling the Paris terror victims "devil worshippers".

     

    Parent

    In Cruz's case, the apple doesn't fall far (none / 0) (#186)
    by shoephone on Mon Jan 11, 2016 at 02:43:02 PM EST
    from the tree:

    Ted Cruz's father says that having a gay mayor of Houston is "appalling."

    According to the Houston Chronicle, Cruz's remarks came in video posted last week by a group called "NO on Houston Prop 1 PAC," an organization in opposition of the city's HERO ordinance, which, as stated in the newspaper, would extend protections to transgender people.

    "If the righteous are not running for office, if the righteous are not even voting, then what is left? The wicked electing the wicked. And we get what we deserve," Cruz said in the video. "I'll tell you what, it is appalling that in a city like Houston, right in the middle of the Bible Belt, we have a homosexual mayor."

    Oh, and according to Pastor Cruz, the constitutional separation of church and state is "a lie."

    Parent

    That Must be the Problem... (none / 0) (#184)
    by ScottW714 on Mon Jan 11, 2016 at 11:55:24 AM EST
    ...no one is spanking Cruz when he tells something he knows to be false.

    Parent
    US News World Report (none / 0) (#156)
    by TrevorBolder on Sat Jan 09, 2016 at 11:51:32 AM EST
    http://tinyurl.com/hlnawux

    The survey by Washington-based Mercury Analytics is a combination online questionnaire and "dial-test" of Trump's first big campaign ad among 916 self-proclaimed "likely voters" (this video shows the ad and the dial test results). It took place primarily Wednesday and Thursday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent.

    Nearly 20 percent of likely Democratic voters say they'd cross sides and vote for Trump, while a small number, or 14 percent, of Republicans claim they'd vote for Clinton. When those groups were further broken down, a far higher percentage of the crossover Democrats contend they are "100 percent sure" of switching than the Republicans.

    When the firmed showed respondents the Trump ad, and assessed their responses to each moment of it, it found "the primary messages of Trump's ad resonated more than Democratic elites would hope."

    About 25 percent of Democrats "agree completely" that it raises some good point, with an additional 19 percent agreeing at least "somewhat."

    Mercury CEO Ron Howard, a Democrat whose firm works for candidates in both parties and corporate clients, concedes, "We expected Trump's first campaign spot to strongly appeal to Republican Trump supporters, with little impact - or in fact negative impact - on Democratic or independent voters."

    Dial test (none / 0) (#157)
    by Ga6thDem on Sat Jan 09, 2016 at 11:59:52 AM EST
    and online and no total numbers. Gotcha. LOL.

    Parent
    Or these (none / 0) (#161)
    by TrevorBolder on Sat Jan 09, 2016 at 01:04:50 PM EST
    http://tinyurl.com/lxxoe6l

    Real Clear Politics-  Most current vs Hillary

    Trump +3
    Cruz +7
    Rubio +9
    Carson -2
    Bush   Even
    Christie +3

    Long way to go, but voters seem to want something NEW


    Parent

    That's a (none / 0) (#162)
    by Ga6thDem on Sat Jan 09, 2016 at 01:15:27 PM EST
    Fox poll that has a poor rating. So if it gives you hope you're welcome to cling to that. Ted Cruz would win by 7 points? Do you even believe that? Of course a month ago or so they had Carson winning by 10 points if that tells you anything.

    Parent
    Polls like that at this point mean nothing. (none / 0) (#171)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Sat Jan 09, 2016 at 05:44:31 PM EST
    True story: Up for re-election in 1936, President Franklin Roosevelt was trailing Kansas Gov. Alf Landon badly in the polls throughout that entire summer and into the fall.

    In fact, one such poll of over 2 million citizens across the country, which was conducted by the venerable magazine Literary Digest only one month prior to that election, strongly suggested that Landon would win in a landslide with 57% of the vote.

    I would further note that similar Literary Digest polls had accurately reflected the ultimate outcome of the previous five presidential elections, and its polls were considered the most respected of its day. They had surveyed an estimated 1 in 5 likely American voters that year. What could possibly go wrong?

    Well, a lot actually, as it ultimately turned out. FDR took 63% of the vote and won 46 of 48 states, in what still stands today as the most lopsided presidential election in American history. Gov. Landon even lost badly in his own home state, by nearly 20 points. And the credibility of the haughty Literary Digest as a reputable and reliable political barometer was forever trashed.

    It was this campaign and this particular poll, and not the better known and well-documented Gallup folly in the 1948 contest between Thomas Dewey and Harry Truman, which proved a revelation to polling statisticians about the inherent flaws of surveying an electorate during volatile times.

    (First and foremost, they surmised that a larger statistical sampling does not necessarily yield more accurate data. In fact, such large survey pools actually tend to skew opposite and offer diminishing value in their returns. In other words, it's indeed possible to overpoll and end up with statistical gibberish, as the Romney campaign and Karl Rove learned to their chagrin and dismay in 2012.)

    It's really best to not pay too much attention to polls right now. They serve as fodder for political conversation, but not much else.

    Aloha.

    Parent

    Hypothetical (none / 0) (#174)
    by FlJoe on Sat Jan 09, 2016 at 06:17:46 PM EST
    head to heads are probably the silliest polls of all. Hillary getting only 44% in the general? Ridiculous, any 2 legged creature with a D after their name has a floor of 48% at worst.

    National party primaries are only marginally better, they are interesting in a people's choice sort of way, judging the electorates psyche so to speak but almost useless to predict actual primary votes.

    I think the State polls have quite a bit of utility especially closer to the voting.  

    Parent

    New Hampshire Poll Released Today (none / 0) (#167)
    by CoralGables on Sat Jan 09, 2016 at 04:17:13 PM EST
    Has Rubio dropping to 6th.

    Should be interesting to see which establishment candidates survive the early states.

    I (5.00 / 1) (#169)
    by FlJoe on Sat Jan 09, 2016 at 05:24:01 PM EST
    am not buying it yet(the Bush camp is probably  drunkenly lapping it up, though). For some reason Rubio and Cruz are getting hammered among independents in this poll, the Republican split seems more in tune with the rest of the polls, I am skeptical about Bush's strength but I have been watching both him and Kasich staying up in the second place pack.

    I predict the polls will be all over the place for second place, with Trump getting an unwavering 30% and 5 candidates legitimately fighting for the remaining 60 and change. I really don't see any one rising above or dropping above the margin of error.

    Parent

    This (5.00 / 1) (#173)
    by Ga6thDem on Sat Jan 09, 2016 at 06:17:36 PM EST
    is the strangest poll in a while. Of course, getting closer it could be the most accurate of all the ones we have seen so far.

    Cruz is getting hammered because its' NH and evangelical doesn't sell well there. Rubio probably because he doesn't show up for work.

    Parent

    The (none / 0) (#178)
    by FlJoe on Sun Jan 10, 2016 at 09:16:57 AM EST
    more I look at that poll the more I smell BS. Male/Female  split on  Trump is 30/39. That seems preposterous to me.

    Parent
    I'll (none / 0) (#180)
    by Ga6thDem on Sun Jan 10, 2016 at 11:27:37 AM EST
    take your word for it since you know polling :)

    Parent
    I wallow (none / 0) (#181)
    by FlJoe on Mon Jan 11, 2016 at 11:32:01 AM EST
    in quotas and sampling day after day, you think I would ignore such nonsense in my spare time.

    But nooo, new NBC polls revert to form in NH

    Parent

    FlJoe: Deciphering the latest NBC etc. poll (5.00 / 1) (#188)
    by christinep on Mon Jan 11, 2016 at 04:54:30 PM EST
    in Iowa might be interesting.  If I read the really small footnote font correctly, Independents who indicate support for Sanders underlie the tightening results with respect to Clinton.

     My question: Can you tell how much weight is given to the apparently as-yet non-registered Independents who responded vis-à-vis the registered Dems.  The reason: If the "likely voter" model in this caucus state is anywhere near accurate in terms of percentages of Independents who might declare and participate on caucus night, then the momentum may favor Sanders topping this one. OTOH, if that potential late-breaking fervor by Independents to attend the Dem caucuses does not materialize, then Clinton's margin is much wider than the NBC/WSJ/Marist release yesterday surmises.  

    Based on Iowa history, in any event, the next Des Moines Register (Ann Selzer) poll will be more than instructive.

    Parent

    their model (none / 0) (#189)
    by FlJoe on Mon Jan 11, 2016 at 09:46:31 PM EST
    shows 15% participation by independents, which ends up being roughly a 5% boost in is overall numbers, hardly enough to account for his rise unless those numbers have recently totally flipped. Looking at the charts it appears to me that Sanders gains over the past several months have mostly come from the 10% Biden left on the table plus a few undecided and a relative handful  independants who feel the Bern. Will they show? Marist thinks so(their model measures enthusiasm).

    Parent
    Biden weighs in (none / 0) (#192)
    by TrevorBolder on Tue Jan 12, 2016 at 06:22:32 AM EST
    As promised , He will not go quietly away...

    http://tinyurl.com/j2bwvdp

    Washington (CNN)Vice President Joe Biden offered effusive praise for Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders Monday, lauding Hillary Clinton's chief rival for doing a "heck of a job" on the campaign trail and praising Sanders for offering an authentic voice on income inequality.

    And while Biden said Democrats had a slate of "great candidates" running for president, he suggested Clinton was a newcomer to issues like the growing gap between rich and poor.

    Parent

    The (5.00 / 1) (#193)
    by FlJoe on Tue Jan 12, 2016 at 08:28:00 AM EST
    same Joe Biden that fought valiantly for banksters and CC companies while in the Senate?

    I think he should STFU about "latecoming" to the income inequality issues.  

    Parent

    Joe (none / 0) (#194)
    by jbindc on Tue Jan 12, 2016 at 08:51:57 AM EST
    Just wants to feel relevant.

    My guess is, he was advised by Obama not to get in the race, and he feels bitter about it and towards HRC.

    I predict we will see more Biden passive aggressive jabs at her in the near future.

    Time to go to pasture,  Joe.

    Parent

    Bernie's success scares me (none / 0) (#191)
    by MKS on Tue Jan 12, 2016 at 01:10:18 AM EST
    If he wins the nomination, the Trump people will filet him.   Bernie's professorial demeanor will not help him win a street fight.

    I can't think of a worse thing for Democrats than Bernie winning the nomination.

    Well-meaning naivete will not win.

    Parent

    and (none / 0) (#182)
    by FlJoe on Mon Jan 11, 2016 at 11:48:57 AM EST
    ARG and Monmouth a surge for Kasich?

    Ironically second place in NH is shaping up to be the biggest prize in the early going.


    Parent

    Its not the first (none / 0) (#187)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon Jan 11, 2016 at 03:32:17 PM EST
    Or only poll showing support from women for Trump.

    Parent
    Most recent Iowa poll (none / 0) (#190)
    by ragebot on Tue Jan 12, 2016 at 12:21:17 AM EST
    shows Trump leading Cruz, but his lead is within the margin of error.  Cruz still leads with the RCP average of polls.

    link

    Parent

    Iowa is only 23 days away (none / 0) (#168)
    by CoralGables on Sat Jan 09, 2016 at 04:19:46 PM EST
    Will everyone but Trump and Cruz soon jump ship in Iowa and aim for NH?

    Parent
    Rubio (none / 0) (#170)
    by FlJoe on Sat Jan 09, 2016 at 05:36:29 PM EST
    is pushing in Iowa, he put out a serious bible banging ad out there. He looks like he is already headed for an uncontested third place in Iowa but if he can pile enough support up to make it close there he might be able to use the momentum to break through the log jam in NH a week later.

    Parent
    Seriously (none / 0) (#175)
    by Ga6thDem on Sat Jan 09, 2016 at 06:19:20 PM EST
    that bible banging ad was considered condescending by the very people it was aimed for. If anything that ad probably hurt him.

    Parent
    I am (none / 0) (#176)
    by FlJoe on Sat Jan 09, 2016 at 06:37:01 PM EST
    not judging the efficacy of his tactics, just his strategy. To me it looked like pathetic pandering, but the Iowa voters have voted for the likes of Santorum and Huckabee, are ready to walk down the aisle with Cruz, not to mention their dalliances with Dr. Ben and Michelle Bachman, they are liable to buy anything in my book.

    Parent
    LOL (none / 0) (#177)
    by Ga6thDem on Sat Jan 09, 2016 at 06:39:05 PM EST
    True but however I saw the response to it and that's what I'm basing my opinion on. Yeah, I thought it was cheesy and awful but I'm not his focus group either.

    Parent
    That poll (none / 0) (#172)
    by Ga6thDem on Sat Jan 09, 2016 at 06:09:49 PM EST
    is interesting. It has four of them vying for 2nd place which is gonna be 20 points behind Trump.

    Parent