Growing emotional, Fiorina said that her victory in the Iowa caucuses was the greatest moment in her life since she "built Hewlett-Packard into the most successful computer company of all time."

She also thanked the "countless" former Hewlett-Packard employees who stumped for her in Iowa. "The relentless love and support the Hewlett-Packard crew has shown to me just blows me away," she said.

"One of the reasons that Donald Trump has flummoxed pollsters and political analysts is that his supporters seem to have nothing in common.  What's bringing all these different people together, new research shows, is a shared type of personality -- a personality that in many ways has nothing to do with politics.

This is in people's guts, not their brains," said Marc Hetherington, a political scientist and an expert on authoritarianism at Vanderbilt University. "This is much more primal."

"I'm not saying they're fascists," MacWilliams said of Trump's supporters, "but authoritarians obey."

Mr. Trump was at 31 percent in the final polls, but finished with just 24 percent. In our data set of early primary polls from New Hampshire and Iowa since 2004, no candidate underperformed the final surveys by as much as Mr. Trump.

It's probably not a coincidence that the candidate who underperformed the polls by the most is also the one who had a mediocre turnout operation and enjoyed seemingly nonstop media coverage.

The entrance polls showed that evangelicals were 63 percent of the electorate, while most pre-election polls showed a much lower tally. The final Selzer poll, considered to be one of the most reliable polls, had evangelical voters at 47 percent of the electorate.

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