South Carolina: Time for Republicans to Vote

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2016
Posted on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 08:16:00 AM EST
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It's finally time for Republicans to vote in South Carolina. Last minute predictions?

Time Magazine reports:

For Republicans, South Carolina offers 50 pledged delegates, about 2% of the convention total, of which 29 will will be awarded to the highest statewide vote getter, and three will be awarded to the higher vote getter in each of the state’s seven congressional districts. The hybrid system may allow multiple candidates to find a reason to claim success.

Ted Cruz is fighting Trump and Rubio for the evangelical vote. [More...]

Religious voters have great sway in South Carolina; in 2012, 65% of Republican primary voters identified themselves in exit polls as Evangelical or Born Again—enough to deliver a win if they vote as a bloc. These voters could offer clues as to how their brethren will vote in other conservative Southern states that vote on March 1.

I doubt that. South Carolina Republicans may be 65% evangelical, but like Iowa and New Hampshire, their importance is overblown by the media.

Here's Nate Silver of 538 on "What's at Stake in South Carolina?" According to 538's recap of polling data, Trump has a 77% chance of winning South Carolina.

Where do the rest of the pack come in? According to 538: Cruz: 19%; Rubio 18%; Bush: 12%; Kasich 8%; Carson: 5%

What about Jeb Bush? Silver says:

the fact that Bush performed so poorly in Iowa and New Hampshire (don’t give me any spin about his having “beaten expectations”) — and that his numbers have been so flat in South Carolina despite the spending, the debates and the Bush family jamboree — would seem to suggest that Republican voters simply aren’t buying what he’s selling.

So will he drop out? Probably not immediately.

What happened on the last day of the Republican primary camapaign? The News Observer reports:

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, the son of a pastor, evoked "the body of Christ" in his closing message while fending off allegations of "dirty tricks" in a state where most Republicans identify as evangelical Christians. At the same time, Trump allies took subtle shots at Pope Francis for questioning the Republican front-runner's devotion to Christian principles. Ohio Gov. John Kasich continued hugging supporters, while Jeb Bush turned to his mother to help revive his underdog campaign.

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"The little Cuban fella" (5.00 / 1) (#33)
by jondee on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 01:53:10 PM EST

sounds like something Nixon would say on the Oval Office tapes.

I still thinks it's so funny (5.00 / 1) (#76)
by ruffian on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 06:42:22 PM EST

that anyone can claim a resounding victory with 30-something percent of the vote. Sure it is a win, but hardly a ringing endorsement.

This is strictly my opinion (none / 0) (#77)
by CaptHowdy on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 06:46:56 PM EST

But I think the idea that all voters who didn't vote for Donald here or in NH will inevitably vote against him or that the fact he is only polling in the high 30s means he can ever get over 50% of the republican vote s completely misguided.

I don't think that's true at all.

We are probably going to find out fairly soon.


Right, I'm not saying it's not possible (none / 0) (#80)
by ruffian on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 06:54:38 PM EST

or won't happen. Just not used to such even races with so many candidates.


: I know. (5.00 / 1) (#81)
by CaptHowdy on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 06:57:58 PM EST

Some people are saying that

Comments with racial (5.00 / 1) (#118)
by Jeralyn on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 10:30:31 PM EST

and ethnic slurs are being deleted. Think before you post. Attacking Rubio because he's from Cuba is not acceptable. And posting false exaggerations about his brother in law's drug conviction from the 80's is also not allowed. You may not use this site to spread misinformation. Here is the story of his brother in law's ancient drug conviction. Rubio was 16 and in high school at the time. Criticize his politics, fine, but take personal attacks elsewhere -- as to all the candidates.

Predictions (none / 0) (#1)
by FlJoe on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 06:31:17 AM EST

Trump 31
Cruz 21
Rubio 20
Bush 11
Kasich 9
Carson 7

I'm gonna (none / 0) (#2)
by Ga6thDem on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 06:51:18 AM EST

go out on a limb here and say that Rubio is over polling in SC and while I still think he'll come in 3rd it's not even going to be close to Cruz.


I think that's possible ... (5.00 / 1) (#32)
by Robot Porter on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 01:51:11 PM EST

and came close to downgrading him more than I did, and tossing some of his support to Bush and Kasich.

Personally, I'd be happy if he came in last. He's a type of politician (in either party) I hate.

Studied, little experience, few accomplishments, groomed for success by fat cats and party elders.

Ugh.


Rubio (none / 0) (#3)
by FlJoe on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 07:38:05 AM EST

is a bit of a wild card, but his polls numbers have been "surging", unlike NH where he got derailed by his debate performance, events and media coverage have been positive so I think his momentum is real this time.

That being said, his "definitely support numbers" have been weak and any over performance by Bush and/ or Kasich is bound to hurt mostly Rubio, so he could easily be dragged down a few notches.


I just (none / 0) (#4)
by Ga6thDem on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 07:46:39 AM EST

don't see Rubio as having much of a constituency in SC whereas I actually see Bush, Kasich, Cruz and Trump as actually having a constituency. Bush and Kasich are going to be 4th and 5th simply IMO because they are fighting over the same set of voters.


That (none / 0) (#5)
by FlJoe on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 08:18:30 AM EST

is my point. Bush appears to be dead man walking and Kasich has no money. The sizable establishment block seems to be coalescing around Rubio who also gets some crossover from Evangelicals and non nativist TP's.


: More and more (none / 0) (#6)
by Ga6thDem on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 08:33:08 AM EST

it's just flat looking like the GOP is writing off the 2016 presidential election in a lot of ways. They seem to think that the only way they can win in November is to mess in our primaries and get Bernie nominated.

Cruz will probably (none / 0) (#37)
by KeysDan on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 03:00:23 PM EST

surge (isn't that what they do?) what with his floating the Duck Dynasty guy for UN Ambassador. And, with his adamant position on filibustering any nominee for Scalia's vacancy--unless someone points out that he claimed (in cases he does not agree with, e.g. Obergefellj) that the Supreme Court does not matter, they are just "nine lawyers."


I think Marco (none / 0) (#7)
by CaptHowdy on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 09:18:44 AM EST

Might beat Ted out for second.

I admit it could be my wishful thinking that Ted lose.


At this hour, a very good prediction (none / 0) (#82)
by jimakaPPJ on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 07:00:24 PM EST

33.9, 22,1,20.9, 9.6, 7.2 and 6.2

Interestingly enough Trump's comments re W hasn't hurt and his comment to keep all Muslims out until we get things sorted out was approved by 90%....

No doubt. People are pi$$ed. I wonder when the hoodoos will get the message.


You know what Trevor (none / 0) (#9)
by CaptHowdy on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 09:36:40 AM EST

I wish with all my heart that for once in your life you would be right.
Marco would be the easiest of any republican candidate to destroy.

You do not win the presidency by saying women should be legally forced to die in childbirth.

Among many other things.

So good luck with that. Sincerely.

: that comment was deleted (5.00 / 1) (#116)
by Jeralyn on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 10:18:47 PM EST

for containing an ethnic slur. Watch it Trevor.

You know (none / 0) (#11)
by jbindc on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 09:56:11 AM EST

Jeralyn wouldn't put up with someone referring to Bernie Sanders as "that little Jewish fella" or Barack Obama as "that little black fella," so could you please stop calling Cruz "that little Cuban fella"?

Jist because most of us don't agree with Ted Cruz's positions, doesn't mean we should put up with comments that we wouldn't tolerate against people we like.

Thanks.

: I deleted that comment (5.00 / 1) (#117)
by Jeralyn on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 10:19:42 PM EST

It was totally inappropriate. Any further racial or ethnic slurs will result in the commenter being banned.

Late signs that Trump... (none / 0) (#13)
by magster on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 10:35:14 AM EST

... was hemorrhaging support. I fear that Rubio might actually surge into a near tie with Trump, followed by Bush dropping out and endorsing Rubio.

I agree with CG (none / 0) (#14)
by CaptHowdy on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 10:42:47 AM EST

I very much doubt anyone will drop out before the 15th.


Politico (none / 0) (#16)
by TrevorBolder on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 11:15:44 AM EST

Several Jeb Bush campaign workers are already shopping their résumés with Florida political consultants as expectations mount inside his team that their candidate won't push on after South Carolina.
"I can unequivocally tell you that people are looking for work, because they say they've been led to believe that they won't have a job because the campaign won't be around any longer or their jobs won't because the campaign won't have any money," said one Republican who helps run one of the Florida campaigns and who is a Bush donor.

Four separate and senior political consultants in Florida said they have been negotiating with potential employees who are preparing for the end of the Bush campaign.


: Feh (none / 0) (#20)
by Ga6thDem on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 11:40:53 AM EST

more gossip from Politico. I can't imagine that he will leave before Florida. which is only three weeks away. His people very well may be shopping their resumes because even if it's coming down the pike three weeks down the line they would need to be looking today for work.

I (none / 0) (#17)
by FlJoe on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 11:20:45 AM EST

Think Bush is gone unless he can surprise today(>12% and within 5-6 points of Rubio) he is still liable to get slaughtered on ST in any case.

I think Kasich will hang in there hoping he can steal winner take all Ohio and make a dent in Illinois on the 15th.


It does (none / 0) (#15)
by FlJoe on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 11:06:56 AM EST

look like Trump is coming off his mid thirties peak but he does have a dedicated base of support of at least 28%, I just don't think Rubio has time to get close to that number barring a total collapse of Bush and Kasich. My gut feeling is that Cruz will still edge out Rubio with his strong ground game.


Rubio (none / 0) (#21)
by Ga6thDem on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 11:47:10 AM EST

really has no constituency in SC for the most part. Cruz and Trump are the big guns in SC but like you I can't see Rubio moving up enough.


Wherever Rubio land, (none / 0) (#30)
by KeysDan on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 01:29:58 PM EST

it will be called a victory. A surge to third place, or, if better, he is on his way to the White House. He is the hope of the Republican establishment and media, despite his clearly not being ready for prime time. Perhaps, the ploy is to get Rubio some momentum before the electorate learns more about him, other than his sweaty, robotic panics.


: Might (5.00 / 1) (#34)
by Ga6thDem on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 01:56:07 PM EST

be the only thing Jeb is right about but when he said Hillary would strip the bark off of him in short order he was right.

Quinnipiac Favorability polls (none / 0) (#22)
by TrevorBolder on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 11:59:46 AM EST

Sanders leads Trump 48%-42%. He leads Jeb Bush and Ted Cruz by 49%-39% margins. Sen. Sanders leads Marco Rubio 47%-41%, and John Kasich 45%-41%. Hillary Clinton leads Trump 44%-43%. Ted Cruz leads Hillary Clinton 46%-43%. Rubio leads Clinton 48%-41%. Jeb Bush leads Hillary Clinton 44%-43%, and John Kasich leads Clinton 47%-39%.

Sen. Sanders is the most liked candidate in the entire 2016 field. Sanders has a 51% favorability rating and net (+15) favorability rating. John Kasich has a higher net favorability rating of (+17), but an overall lower favorability rating of 35%. Marco Rubio is the only other presidential candidate who is not in net negative territory. Rubio has (+2) net favorability rating with an overall favorability split of 39%-37%. Hillary Clinton is a net (-21) with an overall favorability rating of 38%. Donald Trump is a net (-20) with an overall favorability rating of 37%. Jeb Bush is a net (-11) with an overall favorability rating of 37%, and Ted Cruz is a net (-9) with an overall favorability rating of 36%.

Q polls (5.00 / 1) (#25)
by Ga6thDem on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 12:13:10 PM EST

have been way off this year so far. They had Bernie winning the IA caucus by a decent margin.

And favor ability is something that can be changed in a heartbeat. I've seen it happen a number of times.

All Hillary has to do is put out some ads on what Rubio has actually DONE and SAID and he'll be toast.

Do you really think most Americans especially women want to be birthing slave wards of the state? That's the biggest most personally invasive support of "big government" I've ever seen in my life time. Apparently you think you can put a young face on decrepit ideas and it will work. Personally I think Cruz is going to take him down before it gets too far. Cruz is already making fun of him repeating Obama verbatim.


I can't believe I'm saying this again (none / 0) (#23)
by CaptHowdy on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 12:05:26 PM EST

But it's a boring Saturday

This means exactly squat. This has been explained to you probably hundreds of times but the concern trolling continues. The touting of Politico talking points continues. No one is fooled we get you.

Sanders "polls well" because most of the people "liking" him have no freaking clue who he is. He has not had a single negative ad run against him. And he has actually had support from right wing super pacs because they know he could be taken apart like a boiled peanut in a general election.

You are becoming vey tiresome.


: Precisely (5.00 / 2) (#26)
by Ga6thDem on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 12:14:55 PM EST

Maybe Trevor can explain to us why Karl Rove has been running ads for Bernie? Does anybody really think that Karl Rove wants Bernie to be president?

Is that a likability poll? (none / 0) (#39)
by ruffian on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 03:20:42 PM EST

Not a 'who do you want for president' poll?

Are there actual presidential polls state by state that show Bernie winning more red or purple states than Hillary? Because that is the way a presidential election is conducted.


PREDICTION: (none / 0) (#31)
by Robot Porter on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 01:43:09 PM EST

TRUMP 29%
CRUZ 24%
RUBIO 20%
BUSH 12%
KASICH 9%
CARSON 6%

Will it even matter? (none / 0) (#35)
by Robot Porter on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 02:46:04 PM EST

Whatever happens tonight, or how the pundits spin it, it probably won't have much impact on the race. And won't iron out the fundamental problems the key candidates have.

Even if Trump wins big, the same key question remains: Can he ever be a majority candidate?

And no matter how well Mr. Roboto does (unless he actually wins) he will be 3-0 with no clear win anywhere in the future.

He's never led nationally or in any state poll. Kasich is the only other candidate you can say that about. And he's had a second place finish. Mr. Roboto hasn't.

And these aren't fictions that he can just "dispel with ... dispel with ... dispel with ..."

Well (none / 0) (#36)
by Ga6thDem on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 02:48:39 PM EST

that's kind of been my contention the entire time. Exactly what state does Rubio win? It looks like the only one that might be gone after SC is Ben Carson and that seems to benefit Cruz more than anybody else. Kasich can at least probably win Ohio.


: If I was Jeb ... (none / 0) (#38)
by Robot Porter on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 03:10:00 PM EST

I'd just stay in. Hope Kasich never happens. And Mr. Roboto glitches again.
He could also benefit from late race buyers remorse. And, who knows, that might be enough to create a brokered convention.
The dream of all of us political junkies!

Trump will win (none / 0) (#40)
by CaptHowdy on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 03:24:41 PM EST

And it will matter


If Marco is second (none / 0) (#41)
by CaptHowdy on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 03:28:50 PM EST

It will matter

If Jeb is 4th. It will matter.


That's what the chattering class ... (none / 0) (#42)
by Robot Porter on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 03:31:21 PM EST

will tell us.

Gingrich won last time.

Couldn't have mattered less.


Starts looking less (none / 0) (#44)
by CaptHowdy on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 03:33:19 PM EST

Like a "footnote to a footnote" if he wins both SC and NV.

and he probably will.


If you don't get the nomination ... (none / 0) (#47)
by Robot Porter on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 03:39:12 PM EST

no on remembers anything.

No remembers how close Hart got to Mondale in '84.

They remember that Mondale said "Where's the beef?" and won.

He needed super delegates to get him over the top.

They don't remember that.

People don't even remember how close the Obama v. Clinton race was.


I anticipate your evolution (none / 0) (#49)
by CaptHowdy on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 03:46:08 PM EST

But does it answer the question ... (none / 0) (#50)
by Robot Porter on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 03:49:08 PM EST

can Trump ever get a majority?

Which was my main point.


No (none / 0) (#53)
by TrevorBolder on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 03:53:47 PM EST

And NO


Actually (none / 0) (#54)
by CaptHowdy on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 03:55:23 PM EST

If I'm not mistaken the actual question is can he win the nomination.


: Well, you need ... (none / 0) (#55)
by Robot Porter on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 03:58:10 PM EST

a majority to win the nomination.
And you'll have to get majorities in states, at some time, to do that.

Gingrich (none / 0) (#62)
by Ga6thDem on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 04:32:27 PM EST

had nowhere near the run Trump has had. IIRC Newt basically won SC, GA, AL and MS maybe? I will have to go and check to make sure but I'm pretty sure Newt's wins were pretty much confined to the Old Confederacy. Trump will have had wins in SC, NH and if the polls are right Nevada.

Now the rub for Trump comes is when the field narrows. Does he pick up other candidates voters or does he just sit at his support in the thirties?


: After (none / 0) (#64)
by Ga6thDem on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 04:36:16 PM EST

checking it seems that the only states Newt won were SC and GA. Santorum even beat him in AL and MS.

Mr. Roboto spent almost ... (none / 0) (#43)
by Robot Porter on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 03:33:18 PM EST

ten times more than anyone else. And got every establishment endorsement.

If he can't win with all that how can he win?


Expectations (none / 0) (#45)
by CaptHowdy on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 03:34:38 PM EST

Cruz was supposed t be second. If you don't think Rubio 2nd would be a big story I believe you are mistaken.


If you have all that ... (none / 0) (#46)
by Robot Porter on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 03:36:29 PM EST

you should be expected to win, and you should win.


What part of 'this is not an ordinary year' (none / 0) (#51)
by ruffian on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 03:51:21 PM EST

have you not grasped?


They always say that ... (none / 0) (#56)
by Robot Porter on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 04:03:31 PM EST

but at the end of the day it's always the same.

You need a majority of the delegates to win the nomination. And you have win lots of states to do that.

Not winning states will never get you there.

If someone wins the nomination without a majority of the delegates then ...

"this is not an ordinary year."


Don't the GOP primaries use proportional (none / 0) (#57)
by ruffian on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 04:14:21 PM EST

allocation of delegates? Never mind, I see what you mean - something will have to put him over 50% either before or at the convention.

Sorry!

So you think the establishment will quash him at the convention even if he has more delegates than anyone else, but not a majority....I tend to agree with that. Will be interesting to see how they accomplish it.


'He' meaning Trump above (none / 0) (#58)
by ruffian on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 04:15:57 PM EST

Would be the opposite in Rubio- they could find a way to make him the winner.


: Right ... (none / 0) (#65)
by Robot Porter on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 04:52:00 PM EST

anyway, the point is you gotta win to win. And you gotta get past 50.
Rubio hasn't won anywhere. Trump's won one by a modest plurality. Cruz has won one by an even more modest plurality.
Long, long way to go.

They won't (none / 0) (#60)
by CaptHowdy on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 04:19:57 PM EST

If they appear to be taking it from him in any way it would be a far greater disaster than a Trump candidacy.

Who knows if he wins it, I think there is a very good chance he will, but the idea the party is just going to "take" it is totally magical thinking.


Polls close at 7 (none / 0) (#63)
by CaptHowdy on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 04:33:14 PM EST

Eastern

Do you have a Trump ... (none / 0) (#66)
by Robot Porter on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 05:33:46 PM EST

countdown clock?

;)


As predicted (none / 0) (#67)
by CaptHowdy on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 05:39:59 PM EST

Moving toward blaming me for the win.

I don't but I can tell you from the chatter between the MSNBC talking heads, like Ws former press person, I would say it's T minus 21 minutes


C'mon ... (none / 0) (#68)
by Robot Porter on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 06:10:20 PM EST

smile, it's all in good fun.

If we can't laugh at this stuff ...


: Oh don't worry (none / 0) (#70)
by CaptHowdy on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 06:16:18 PM EST

I'm smilin

I'm really enjoying watching (none / 0) (#71)
by CaptHowdy on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 06:24:09 PM EST

Maddow and Ws former press secretary try to figure out how Donald can trash W and the Pope and STILL win!!!!

: Bashing the pope might have helped stem ... (none / 0) (#73)
by Robot Porter on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 06:27:28 PM EST

a tide against him. If there was one.
It was a classic George Wallace style move.

: Yeah...as if military people don't know the truth (none / 0) (#75)
by ruffian on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 06:29:39 PM EST

about the Iraq war by now.

Nate Silver says exits ... (none / 0) (#72)
by Robot Porter on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 06:24:25 PM EST

currently predict this outcome:

Trump 31, Cruz 27, Rubio 23

Trump (none / 0) (#79)
by Ga6thDem on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 06:54:17 PM EST

and Cruz together 58% of the vote according to that. Now how does the establishment ever get "their" candidate with those numbers?


: It will be a chore ... (none / 0) (#91)
by Robot Porter on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 07:17:59 PM EST

but it will also be a chore for Cruz or Trump to consolidate the other's votes.

MSNBC (none / 0) (#74)
by CaptHowdy on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 06:28:18 PM EST

calls it for Donald

Uh oh (none / 0) (#78)
by CaptHowdy on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 06:49:18 PM EST

Marco is in second!

I will repeat (none / 0) (#83)
by CaptHowdy on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 07:05:15 PM EST

If Ted is third in the most likely state for him, it's very bad for Ted. He has some money. Not saying it's fatal but it's bad.

For example Trump won evangelicals by a lot. This is what I thought would happen in the south.


Yeah, (none / 0) (#86)
by Ga6thDem on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 07:11:55 PM EST

but he's still got some places where he can win. He actually has some states on Super Tuesday to possibly win. Rubio has zero he can win.


Texas (5.00 / 1) (#88)
by CaptHowdy on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 07:14:09 PM EST

Not much else IMO

Marco doesn't need to win. The media will keep him alive till the convention.


Marco (none / 0) (#93)
by Ga6thDem on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 07:18:21 PM EST

Orange is the new black. Losing has now become winning. I have to say though as much as the GOP base hates the MSM all this media fluffing has to be ticking them off.

The media might try to keep him alive but at some point like losing Florida to Trump it's going to become obvious he's DOA. IMO Florida takes out both Rubio and Bush unless Bush drops out before then. Maybe Rubio can carry FL if more drop out but I seriously doubt it.


: RCP (none / 0) (#97)
by CaptHowdy on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 07:30:15 PM EST

Donald is 21 points ahead in FL

If (5.00 / 1) (#90)
by FlJoe on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 07:16:51 PM EST

you eliminate Bush an Kasich and concede most of their votes to Rubio he becomes very competitive as early as Nevada.


Good (5.00 / 1) (#95)
by FlJoe on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 07:26:25 PM EST

shots in Mass and Minn on super Tuesday with chances to get delegates in Virginia and Colorado, He could also do well in Michigan before heading into the winner take all(or most) states.


They are not leaving (none / 0) (#92)
by CaptHowdy on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 07:18:07 PM EST

I (none / 0) (#96)
by FlJoe on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 07:30:06 PM EST

still believe Bush is gone, probably by Monday.


: He is certainly going to get some (none / 0) (#98)
by CaptHowdy on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 07:32:24 PM EST

Pressure. I would not be surprised if he stays in to the 15 if for no other reason that he has spent almost 200 million bucks.

: OMG (none / 0) (#102)
by CaptHowdy on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 07:41:16 PM EST

Jeb is dropping out

Cruz is leading ... (none / 0) (#94)
by Robot Porter on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 07:19:15 PM EST

in a number of Southern states.

It won't be great to come in third. But it's not the end of the world.

And right now he's in second.


42% (none / 0) (#101)
by CaptHowdy on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 07:38:14 PM EST

Marco second


50% (none / 0) (#103)
by Robot Porter on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 07:47:30 PM EST

BUSTED second.


But seriously (none / 0) (#104)
by CaptHowdy on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 07:52:18 PM EST

A tie for second is a win for Marco. I hate to sound like a cable pundit but it's true. Because the media loves Marco. The media and everyone else hates Cruz.


62% (none / 0) (#105)
by CaptHowdy on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 07:53:07 PM EST

Marco back in 2nd


: Marco has to win ... (none / 0) (#107)
by Robot Porter on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 07:56:37 PM EST

to win.
He's still leading nowhere.

: 99% ... (none / 0) (#112)
by Robot Porter on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 08:50:06 PM EST

and the difference is 0.1%.
But Mr. Roboto is still on top.

Bush (none / 0) (#84)
by FlJoe on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 07:05:50 PM EST

fades to fifth, bye, bye.

: But (none / 0) (#85)
by CaptHowdy on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 07:07:11 PM EST

It's a STRONG 5th

This win (none / 0) (#87)
by Ga6thDem on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 07:14:02 PM EST

here in SC tells me that Trump is probably going to take every state on Super Tuesday. He's going to do better even than Hillary because he'll probably take Vermont too.

: I agree (none / 0) (#89)
by CaptHowdy on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 07:16:03 PM EST

He has very big leads in places like FL. The more he wins, he will win NV by more than tonight, the more he wins.

Gawd (none / 0) (#100)
by CaptHowdy on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 07:37:09 PM EST

I am so sick of the "democrats are so afraid of Rubio" krap.

Rubio says women should be legally forced to die in childbirth.

Hillary can take the summer off and walk into the WH

God is not generous enough (none / 0) (#111)
by CaptHowdy on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 08:49:28 PM EST

To give us Candidate Ted Cruz.

If only.

: Oh, man (none / 0) (#113)
by Ga6thDem on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 09:14:16 PM EST

wouldn't that be fun!

: No way (none / 0) (#114)
by TrevorBolder on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 09:41:03 PM EST

You are getting either Trump or Rubio