Another Primary Day

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2016
Posted on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 12:26:34 PM EST
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Well, a caucus and primary day with caucuses in Nebraska and Kansas and a primary in Louisiana.

Clinton should win big in Louisiana and lose by some margin in the caucuses. I don;t know the story on the GOP side.

I'll get some more info and provide it as I find it. 1 interesting story seems to be absentee ballots in Nebraska which are breaking heavily for Clinton from what I'm hearing. Might narrow Sanders margin.

On the GOP side, Cruz apparently sweeping Kansas and leading in Maine.

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Another Primary Day | 114 comments (114 topical)

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I saw early this morning that Kos (5.00 / 1) (#1)
by Militarytracy on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 12:56:57 PM EST

Put a diary up stating that on March 15 Dailykos goes into General election mode, then it's time to embrace and accept the victor and focus time and resources on down ticket races.

I heard him on Mark Thompson's show on (5.00 / 2) (#10)
by ruffian on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 02:32:43 PM EST

Sirius on maybe Thursday night...he had a diary entry earlier in the week about his opinions about the shortcomings of the Sanders outreach to minorities that from what I gathered got some horrible and outright racists responses. Kos was very surprised and upset about it - said he had rarely if ever been this disturbed in all the years he has run the blog. Said he realized we had a long way to go on race relations in this country but did not realize that included the readers of DailyKos.

And went on to make the points about general election mode now as far as he is concerned. I was wishing I could record the whole conversation. I will go read the new entry and see if he makes all the same points. He was very eloquent on movements needing a long time and if people are ready to give up after the first goal is not reached in 8 months, it is not really a movement.

You can tell it stuck with me - been meaning to find time to post about it here.

Parent

Obviously I have some catching up (none / 0) (#14)
by Militarytracy on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 02:45:49 PM EST

Thanks for letting me know about that. We are full up right now being tasked so I did not know about this incident.

And this IS one of the things I do appreciate about the internet. This is an opportunity for Dems to address our inner racist.

With spouse teaching leadership, sometimes it's a pain. Nothing is simple :) Because the military is going through a period now where they are focusing on why soldiers harm each other in their ranks, they are getting down to very basic primal fear driven motivations that we all

Parent

: oops...accidentally posted (none / 0) (#15)
by Militarytracy on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 02:50:08 PM EST

Not finished
Anywho, the instructors have had various classes just break out in different kinds of ugliness based on group make up and different personality dynamics. But that's what they want now. They want the ugly exposed so it can be addressed as healthily as it can be addressed.
It's hard to hide the ugly when it's on the net.

Parent

Markos wants to win (none / 0) (#71)
by MKS on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 10:32:15 PM EST

And an objective view of the current situation is that Hillary will be the nominee....No need to bash her personally....

Parent

And you have a diary up (none / 0) (#3)
by Militarytracy on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 01:22:47 PM EST

On the topic too now.

Parent

Yep (5.00 / 4) (#5)
by Big Tent Democrat on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 01:37:04 PM EST

It'll be safe to return soon.

Parent

Never safe (none / 0) (#7)
by smott on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 01:43:44 PM EST

To go there. Highly toxic.

Parent

I kind of wish you didn't feel that way (none / 0) (#12)
by Militarytracy on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 02:39:50 PM EST

It's the internet :) You can't let it get to you like that. There was a learning curve at the beginning of the net.

Community is more communal here, many regulars know each other personally outside of their screen name. That changes things a lot for some reason. But I weigh that out, and remember that for some reason it's okay to say things to a screen name I would never say to a human being. It's hard to remember there is a human being behind that screen name sometimes.

And the flipside that you eventually figure out also is that some people use that anonymity strategically too so......be careful, have a filter for yourself that you use when consuming anything on the internet.

DK has been an informative election resource. I don't comment a lot there right now. But I go read. There are voices there I don't want to be without. And I read selectively, sometimes to chuckle even.

Parent

My comment to Armando's (5.00 / 2) (#13)
by oculus on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 02:44:19 PM EST

diary there won't "post". Here it is:

All good except Kos' gratuitous jab at 2008 "PUMAs."

Parent

This question comes from my head (4.50 / 2) (#17)
by Militarytracy on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 03:14:49 PM EST

Not my heart. Because I have the heart of a mountain lion :)

In reality, how relevant did we become? And I love my whole feline family. But how relevant were we? That is a battlefield question when you have to win a war.

But it was a teaching moment for me too. That was a rough battle, and it propably won't be the last. And I can't complain much about Obama. If a Republican was in the White House real heartbreak would have come for me. We could still be trying to hold positions in Iraq. More "detainees" could be at Gitmo. I could still be fighting Tricare simply for them to agree to allow my son to live. And I doubt the military would be vigorously addressing sexual assault. And our whole upper echelon of military leaders would not have the relationships with NATO and NATO allies that they have. Hey, at some point a Republican President could even argue we don't need to honor our treaties. Donald Trump has told roaring crowds he wouldn't just kill terrorists, he would kill their whole family. That's a violation of several treaties the United States has signed.

I still feel hurt by how ugly that primary became, I guess I have a bit of a scar. But I learned a lot too. I'm not sure being relevant was first on my list in 2008, and that's okay too. It is a valid question though.

Parent

I just did not think the (5.00 / 1) (#18)
by oculus on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 03:20:22 PM EST

guy telling everyone to move on should have added that zinger. I do agree that Pres. Obama has done a fine job.

Parent

: You are most likely right about that (5.00 / 2) (#19)
by Militarytracy on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 04:34:05 PM EST

And Kos does have a zinger problem from time to time.
But becoming calloused enough to deal with the exposed racism exposed during his most previous diary may also have aggravated that.
As women, we all know it's very hard to remain completely nonplussed right after anyone has assaulted your personhood.
And often Armando adds a diary right after such an occurance. He is an observer, able to maintain more objectivity.

Parent

I didn't think it was gratuitous (none / 0) (#25)
by ruffian on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 07:13:49 PM EST

Possibly many of the Sanders voters saying they will sit out the general election if Clinton is the nominee were irritated by (for lack of a better word - hostile to? ) the PUMAs I. 2008. He's reminding them of what they thought about them.

Parent

I think they deserve the jab (none / 0) (#77)
by Jeralyn on Sun Mar 06, 2016 at 06:17:39 AM EST

and let's not rehash 2008 here.

Parent

There are so many people over there (none / 0) (#40)
by ruffian on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 08:04:13 PM EST

I don't have enough time to learn or remember who has what POV and voice when there are hundreds of comments for every post. I have a hard enough time here! Plus I find it hard to navigate beyond the headlines.

Kos's diary about Mar 15 was put a lot more matter-of-factly and dispassionately than his chat with Mark Thompson that I heard. I had to stop listening just when they started taking phone calls, but the first one I heard was pretty angry at him. Tough week for him.

Parent

I prefer (none / 0) (#21)
by Ga6thDem on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 05:04:38 PM EST

it here. I wish you were here more often but I understand you reach at much bigger audience over there.

Parent

I am there more than here (5.00 / 1) (#72)
by MKS on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 10:35:13 PM EST

It is a viper's nest now imo. Very brutal and uncertain place.

I am glad Markos is going to clean it up.

Parent

It is (5.00 / 1) (#75)
by Trickster on Sun Mar 06, 2016 at 03:53:07 AM EST

I have just started hanging out over there the last few days as the contested primary gets my politics juices circulating again. If I didn't know it was going to change in a few days, I would be gone already for sure.

Parent

I just get sickened (5.00 / 2) (#80)
by smott on Sun Mar 06, 2016 at 06:41:46 AM EST

By misogyny wherever I see it.
And given Clinton seems to inspire it to a degree not often seen, I give the site and others with similar content a wide berth.
I'm sure it's pretty nauseating right now. Viper's nest a good term!

Parent

: Understood (5.00 / 1) (#111)
by Militarytracy on Sun Mar 06, 2016 at 01:40:14 PM EST

Parent

I just (5.00 / 3) (#84)
by Ga6thDem on Sun Mar 06, 2016 at 08:14:45 AM EST

quit going there simply because you couldn't go in a diary like Hillary News and Views without having a bro come along and dump in it. I certainly avoided the Bernie diaries.

Also there are Republicans that pretending to be Bernie supporters stirring up trouble.

Parent

Indeed (5.00 / 1) (#91)
by smott on Sun Mar 06, 2016 at 08:55:39 AM EST

But I can't help seeing the irony in the GOP's fracture around the Trump insurgency, reflected on the left at DK/Sanders.

For years Kos' site allowed a high level of personal vitriol in the Comments (major props here to Jeralyn and BTD for controlling that sort of thing so well and keeping this space extremely open and safe in comparison)....there are consequences to letting that atmosphere fester. Things that should be out of bounds become the new normal.

And now here he is belatedly trying to lay down rules to keep things together. As the GOP trots out Mittens to to paper over their own divide.

"you built this" indeed.

Parent

There (5.00 / 1) (#96)
by Ga6thDem on Sun Mar 06, 2016 at 09:08:26 AM EST

are people there that are saying they are going to vote for Trump if Hillary is the nominee. Okay. Well, then if that's the thinking then it's really not about issues with that particular group of people. It's the bro mentality that has been allowed to fester over there way too long.

Parent

: IMO (none / 0) (#97)
by CaptHowdy on Sun Mar 06, 2016 at 09:16:28 AM EST

It's not that simple. That's a part. But I have been saying for months Trump was going to get some Sanders voters. Sanders voters have a fit when they hear that but there it is. Read it and weep.
I really believe the "outsider" "agitator" thing is a bigger deal that the BernieBro thing. I know women who will vote for Sanders or Trump.

Parent

Absolutely (none / 0) (#92)
by CaptHowdy on Sun Mar 06, 2016 at 08:57:53 AM EST

Like the republicans they help create this monster. Now it going to bite them on the ass.

Works for me.

Parent

: Yah (none / 0) (#94)
by smott on Sun Mar 06, 2016 at 09:03:45 AM EST

I think Kos may be surprised how big that bite is.
I think there was another diary asking people to say which way they'd vote....so Kos can, in fact, gauge the size of the monster he helped create.

Parent

I did tiptoe over there briefly (none / 0) (#81)
by smott on Sun Mar 06, 2016 at 07:15:15 AM EST

To read Kos' "we all have to stick together and I really mean it" post.
Cynic that I am, I also found it amusingly ironic that while that post is still burning, on the front page was a post titled
"You created this" in ref to the fractured GOP.
Funny.

Parent

Here's a Kos tech question (none / 0) (#26)
by ruffian on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 07:16:02 PM EST

What's the best way to find a diary? I always have to go to the search tool. Is that the only way?

Parent

: You can "follow" diarists. (none / 0) (#42)
by oculus on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 08:09:59 PM EST

Parent
: I have always had a rough time with the DK (none / 0) (#109)
by Militarytracy on Sun Mar 06, 2016 at 12:49:53 PM EST

Search feature. We just don't like each other, and I haven't taken it for a ride with the new DK. If I know the diarist name I go to the google engine, type in the diarist name followed by dailykos and their profile comes right up. Click on that and one more click goes to their diaries in chronological order newest to oldest.
I stopped following Kos a long time ago, it seemed silly. But I found the diary you spoke of very quickly by doing my Google thing. I got so tired of fighting the DK search.
The DK search is great though when you are searching for tags. If I am researching a specific political topic and it has a common tag, I can find all the latest diaries by doing a tag search on DK. Some diarists write incredibly researched diaries on topics there that get almost no eyes on, never even see the wreck list.

Parent

I heard Sanders (none / 0) (#28)
by athyrio on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 07:30:05 PM EST

complaining about how much Clinton is making for her speeches and Clinton is just talking about the GOP and has turned completely toward the general election....makes Sanders look sorta sour grapes...

Parent

Sanders (5.00 / 1) (#30)
by Ga6thDem on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 07:35:40 PM EST

has already turned in the paperwork to run for the senate VT as in Independent. He's already giving up on the party and going back to being an I. Sounds like he's not going to be in the primary much longer.

Parent

Sanders isn't up for re-election until 2018 right? (5.00 / 1) (#68)
by CoralGables on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 10:03:43 PM EST

Parent

: Nice catch, Coral (none / 0) (#83)
by Mr Natural on Sun Mar 06, 2016 at 08:11:46 AM EST

Sanders, according to his wiki, was re-elected in 2012. Senators serve six year terms.

Parent

since he has already turned in his paperwork (none / 0) (#57)
by athyrio on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 08:44:08 PM EST

to run for the senate as an I, it is pretty mean of him to try to divide the democratic party before he leaves...he said he was going to run a clean campaign but sure doesn't look like it....

Parent

Where did you get that information? (none / 0) (#67)
by NYShooter on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 09:55:20 PM EST

I watched an interview where he said if he loses this bid he'll run as a Democrat in any future elections.

you sure about this info?

Parent

I take (none / 0) (#85)
by Ga6thDem on Sun Mar 06, 2016 at 08:15:16 AM EST

my statement back shooter as I can't find where I read it.

Parent

No problemo, sis (none / 0) (#88)
by NYShooter on Sun Mar 06, 2016 at 08:31:15 AM EST

Parent

You are corrrct (none / 0) (#112)
by jbindc on Sun Mar 06, 2016 at 05:02:49 PM EST

He has filed with the FEC as an Independent for the 2018 Senate race in Vermont.

Parent

This is crazy, (none / 0) (#113)
by NYShooter on Sun Mar 06, 2016 at 09:28:55 PM EST

From Wikipedia:

He will be 77 years old in 2018. Sanders is running for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination. In November 2015, Sanders announced he plans to run as a Democrat rather than an Independent in all future elections.
=================
This getting confusing,
I didn't ask Ga for a source the other day just to waste her time. I asked only after fact-checking myself, and confirming this "running as a Democrat" in future elections. I found this commitment of his in numerous statements, and publications. Obviously, a politician is allowed to change his/her mind. I guess I'll have to confirm the dates when different commitments were made.

Thanks for your input, and effort.

Parent

: No prob (none / 0) (#114)
by jbindc on Mon Mar 07, 2016 at 08:39:02 AM EST

It seems that (ironically) the more information that's available, and the more access we have, there's bound to be confusion or time lags.
I hadn't heard about this until GA mentioned it, and then I saw it again on Twitter.

Parent

I heard Hillary (5.00 / 1) (#2)
by TeresaInPa on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 01:16:32 PM EST

might have better numbers in Kansas than we think. That would be nice! =)

It is difficult for me to imagine (none / 0) (#4)
by Militarytracy on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 01:27:57 PM EST

That the Nebraska Democratic primary is going to break strongly Sanders. But I haven't been back there in a decade.

Parent

seems to me (none / 0) (#6)
by TeresaInPa on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 01:39:23 PM EST

they are just counting on it because it is a caucus and it is in the mid west which is supposed to be hostile to Hillary because of NAFTA. Like it is her fault Bill signed NAFTA. My question is, if Michigan is not holding NAFTA against her why would anyone else? On the other hand Nebraska is much whiter than Michigan.

Parent

Whatever boost of delegates (5.00 / 1) (#8)
by smott on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 01:45:37 PM EST

Sanders may get in the caucuses, Clinton will obliterate them with the romp in La.

Parent

: She's +50 with about 15% reporting (none / 0) (#59)
by CoralGables on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 08:49:07 PM EST

Parent

Why (none / 0) (#61)
by CaptHowdy on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 08:50:58 PM EST

It's like OK. The fewer liberals the more liberal they tend to be.

Parent

My mother's family is from Nebraska (none / 0) (#104)
by Militarytracy on Sun Mar 06, 2016 at 11:33:10 AM EST

Bob Kerrey's first wife was my mother's first cousin. So I have had some exposure to Nebraska "Liberals". Liberals in Nebraska have never been all that Liberal :)

Parent

You mean (5.00 / 1) (#105)
by CaptHowdy on Sun Mar 06, 2016 at 11:35:01 AM EST

Until they gave a socialist a win?

Parent

Caucusing is a lot different (none / 0) (#106)
by Militarytracy on Sun Mar 06, 2016 at 12:23:39 PM EST

Than just going to the voting booth. Obama won my district in Colorado Springs in 2008 because his supporters kept demanding redebate and revote and it was a fricken school night. Everyone was still there until midnight. It got late, people with children gave up just so they could get home :) The first two votings went Clinton though.

That's why your ground game/your machine in caucus states is so important. Clinton doesn't seem to have gone after one in Nebraska. She doesn't seem to have felt that the Nebraska delegate count was that important.

Parent

NE turnout for Huskers football (none / 0) (#107)
by Towanda on Sun Mar 06, 2016 at 12:37:27 PM EST

is more than twice as much, many times per season, as the turnout for NE caucuses.

Parent

: We can talk about why (none / 0) (#108)
by CaptHowdy on Sun Mar 06, 2016 at 12:44:54 PM EST

Caucuses suck or the fact that the ones who turned out gave a win to a socialist.
Like I said, the more liberals disappear the more liberal the pool becomes. This seems obvious to me.

Parent
: Ha ha ha ha ha (none / 0) (#110)
by Militarytracy on Sun Mar 06, 2016 at 01:00:36 PM EST

I don't doubt that for a minute :) And my grandparents used to have their red and white get ups and went to every game against major rival Oklahoma. And the entire stadium was red and white. It hurt your eyes looking at the photos :) When I was a kid I gave up trying to figure out who was a good guy and who was a bad guy from their photos. I concluded they all must be crazy, part of secret cults...nothing seemed clear :)

Parent

That reminds me, I can early vote today (5.00 / 2) (#11)
by ruffian on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 02:35:00 PM EST

Gonna go put one in the basket for HRC.

: I'm planning (none / 0) (#16)
by CoralGables on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 02:57:17 PM EST

on another in the HRC March 15 column with early voting tomorrow.

Parent

New MI (5.00 / 1) (#29)
by Ga6thDem on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 07:34:11 PM EST

polling out shows Trump losing to Kasich by 2 points in the GOP primary. That explains why Kasich is spending so much time there.

Kasich is obviously better at reading (none / 0) (#33)
by CoralGables on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 07:41:40 PM EST

the tea leaves than Marco Rubio is with Kansas tea.

Parent

: Anybody (none / 0) (#86)
by Ga6thDem on Sun Mar 06, 2016 at 08:16:46 AM EST

on earth is better at reading the tea leaves than Rubio I would say.

Parent

I watched an interview (none / 0) (#79)
by jbindc on Sun Mar 06, 2016 at 06:41:28 AM EST

CNN did with a focus group watching the Republican debate at RNC headquarters in Grand Rapids, MI - very conservative area.

Of the 30 or 40 people there, a few said they'd vote for Trump, a few would vote for Cruz, one or two for Rubio, about 10-15 for Kaisch, and even a good 4 or 5 raised their hands and said they'd vote fir the Democrat if Trump was the nominee.

Very strange.

Parent

Page 2 of the Dem. caucus (none / 0) (#9)
by oculus on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 02:08:34 PM EST

FAQs (Nebraska) explains the requirements for absentee ballots. link

Kansas (none / 0) (#20)
by CaptHowdy on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 04:57:49 PM EST

Called for Ted. And he is leading in Maine but only 4.5 % in.

: Ha (none / 0) (#22)
by Ga6thDem on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 05:07:18 PM EST

I called that one the other day. LOL.

Parent

You have to wonder (none / 0) (#23)
by CoralGables on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 05:57:31 PM EST

who is making decisions in the Rubio camp. He did 3 events in Kansas yesterday and is running a distant 3rd.

Looks like the acting like Trump routine Rubio tried has come back to bite him in the a$$.

Remember the Looney Toons dog duo - (none / 0) (#24)
by Mr Natural on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 06:10:51 PM EST

Spike the Bulldog and his little pal, Chester?

Rubio reminds me of the little dog.

Parent

i think... (none / 0) (#27)
by linea on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 07:21:44 PM EST

i think rubio's handlers felt he had to do something. after the takedown by christy and the robot meme and everyone saying that it was a two person race (trump & cruz) i think his handlers felt he needed to do something - anything. but his antics just made rubio look like a little brat. thats my take on it {smile}.

Parent

: I agree with the something, anything part (none / 0) (#34)
by CaptHowdy on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 07:44:30 PM EST

The thing is there was a lot of people screaming for someone to "take Donald on" and I think that was the idea but there are other ways to take him on without becoming a Donald MiniMe.
Which is what he did.
He seem increasingly irrelevant tonight.
I've gone from Trump/Cruz to Trump/Rubio and I think I'm back to Trump/Cruz.

Parent

I thought Kansas was bad for Rubio (none / 0) (#65)
by CoralGables on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 09:21:17 PM EST

but the goose egg is a strong possibility in Louisiana. His night may be getting worse.

Did he give his victory speech yet?

Parent

It seems (none / 0) (#31)
by Ga6thDem on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 07:36:16 PM EST

the prediction is Sanders takes NE 56 to 44.

Bernie wins in Kansas. (none / 0) (#32)
by sallywally on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 07:40:52 PM EST

: all my friends support bernie (none / 0) (#44)
by linea on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 08:27:15 PM EST

yippeee!!

Parent

Wow (none / 0) (#35)
by CaptHowdy on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 07:46:30 PM EST

Maine

5585votes cast in 2012
18650 votes 2016

It's a contested race. (none / 0) (#43)
by Donald from Hawaii on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 08:20:34 PM EST

When people sense that something's up for grabs, they turn out at caucuses. Our party's turnout in the Hawaii caucuses rose from 8,000 in 2004 to over 42,000 in 2008.

Parent

: That was republican (none / 0) (#45)
by CaptHowdy on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 08:27:22 PM EST

It was contested in 2012

Parent

It's looking like (none / 0) (#36)
by CaptHowdy on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 07:55:06 PM EST

Ted 2
Donald 2
Little Marco 0 again

Kasich (none / 0) (#38)
by Ga6thDem on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 07:57:40 PM EST

better hope he wins something soon because he's looking like just winning Ohio isn't going to save him.

Parent

he cant actually win (none / 0) (#46)
by linea on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 08:31:26 PM EST

it's not possible for kaisich to pull off enough delegates at this point. his only path forward is shenanegans at the convention.

Parent

Even (none / 0) (#49)
by Ga6thDem on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 08:34:00 PM EST

if he wins OH and OH being a winner take all state he can't even get close to Trump or Cruz? I mean it would seem likely but I'm not that up on how the GOP allocates delegates.

Parent

seems no (none / 0) (#69)
by linea on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 10:25:18 PM EST

from the numbers it looks impossible for kaisich. after tonight they are reporting these delegate totals for the republicans:

trump 373
cruz 291
rubio 122
kaisich 33

Parent

Kasich (none / 0) (#82)
by FlJoe on Sun Mar 06, 2016 at 07:55:43 AM EST

has already admitted his only chance is a contested convention and it's not out of the question. There is still over 60% of the delegates to be allocated with many of them are in that are in more favorable geographical areas for him.

Winning Ohio is a must of course but a solid second in MI would be a good first step for him. Once the media wakes up on March 16th and realizes that Marco has been kicked off the island and Kasich still remains, the fluffing will commence.

After that, the timing and placement begin to actually favor Kasich, aside from winner take all Arizona, there is no big delegate score available until NY in April, which starts a run of 700 delegates almost all of them in blue states in the NE, mid-Atlantic and Pacific coast. He most likely won't be able to catch anybody but he may very well have the momentum over the last month, giving him viability as an eventual compromise at the convention.

Parent

Frankly (none / 0) (#89)
by Ga6thDem on Sun Mar 06, 2016 at 08:43:59 AM EST

I can't believe that the media has not awoken to the fact that Rubio is dead man walking already. I guess they will have to be hit in the face with FL results before they finally give up the ghost.

Parent

: The media (none / 0) (#102)
by FlJoe on Sun Mar 06, 2016 at 10:18:29 AM EST

does know it, they just don't want to proclaim it, Marco's last stand in FL is just too good of a narrative to pass up.

Parent

Ted Cruz (none / 0) (#37)
by Ga6thDem on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 07:55:57 PM EST

wins Maine. So far it seems like what 2 wins for Cruz? If he keeps this up he is going to start inching ahead of Donald in the delegate count.

i believe... (none / 0) (#48)
by linea on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 08:33:20 PM EST

i believe trump is up by 100-delegates and the states cruz is winning are proportional with trump a close second.

Parent

: I forgot (none / 0) (#51)
by Ga6thDem on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 08:36:25 PM EST

about LA when I wrote that. I'm guessing Cruz is going to come out 2nd to Trump in the delegates but I don't know how far behind that is going to leave Cruz.

Parent

No he won't (none / 0) (#53)
by CoralGables on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 08:38:11 PM EST

He may not even gain ground on Trump tonight.

Parent

Most people (none / 0) (#55)
by CaptHowdy on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 08:41:31 PM EST

Are calling LA for Donald. Not MSNBC or CNN I guess yet.

Parent

YEah (none / 0) (#60)
by Ga6thDem on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 08:50:43 PM EST

I'm all confused. I just looked and forgot that different states are voting on the GOP side today. Yeah, likely Donald is going to have a romp in LA and KY and winning those caucuses won't amount to much for Cruz like they're not going to amount to much for Bernie.

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What it will amount to (none / 0) (#63)
by CaptHowdy on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 08:52:47 PM EST

Is a massive news dump of how "Donald is losing"

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: 538 (none / 0) (#95)
by smott on Sun Mar 06, 2016 at 09:05:18 AM EST

Has some interesting stuff on how early votes went for Trump, but later votes were down for him significantly. Dunno if that means he's peaked, but it prolly means something lol!

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The number of people (none / 0) (#39)
by CaptHowdy on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 08:04:06 PM EST

Participating in these caucuses is ridiculous and disgraceful.

They are a stain on democracy. There should never be another caucus.

They (none / 0) (#41)
by Ga6thDem on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 08:06:17 PM EST

are awful for sure.

And I'm seeing where the Maine GOP guy was acting like it was the academy awards and thanking all their sponsors before announcing the results.

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Oh (none / 0) (#47)
by Ga6thDem on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 08:32:18 PM EST

some good news. MN said they are getting rid of the caucus because there were long lines outside of people who wanted to caucus but couldn't get in. I think it was Hillary supporters. Not sure though. Anyway it's not exactly safe for people to be standing outside for a long time in MN. Apparently theirs was really bad.

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If it was Hillary supporters (none / 0) (#50)
by CaptHowdy on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 08:36:24 PM EST

They were in line very early. The democratic caucus is tomorrow.

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You need to work on your state abbreviations (none / 0) (#56)
by CoralGables on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 08:41:38 PM EST

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: Oh snap (none / 0) (#58)
by CaptHowdy on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 08:45:21 PM EST

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i thought... (none / 0) (#52)
by linea on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 08:36:32 PM EST

isnt the whole point of the dnc / rnc having a caucus (v primary) an overt attempt to keep it mostly political party insiders?

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Could well be (none / 0) (#54)
by CaptHowdy on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 08:40:14 PM EST

It still sucks. And if that is actually the intent, which makes sense, that's even worse.

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whether to have a caucus or (5.00 / 1) (#64)
by caseyOR on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 09:09:24 PM EST

a primary is decided at the state level, not by the DNC. For some states the caucus is appealing because it is cheaper to caucus than to hold a regular primary. For others, they cling to the tradition.

I do think caucuses are on the way out. Just not soon enough for me.

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oh (none / 0) (#70)
by linea on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 10:29:52 PM EST

i didnt know that. but obviously if the dnc or rnc wamts the (for example) Ohio Democrat Party to go caucus they have some influence. i believe for the republicans some states switched to caucus to stop a ron paul type.

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: The DNC and RNC have minimal influence ... (none / 0) (#74)
by Donald from Hawaii on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 11:51:24 PM EST

... on a decision to implement a presidential primary, which is entirely the realm of the state legislature and the state elections office. Caucuses are the exclusive province of the party, which picks up the whole tab, whereas elections are state, county and municipal functions which are funded entirely by taxpayers.

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Maybe (none / 0) (#62)
by Ga6thDem on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 08:52:04 PM EST

but my understanding is that a lot of it has to do with money. Like there aren't that many democrats in Idaho and it costs money to do a primary.

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Kasich can only win through theft by the moneymen. (none / 0) (#66)
by AX10 on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 09:21:40 PM EST

Trump or Cruz will have the most delegates.
Kasich would have no right to the nomination.
With that said, Kos has decided to be an adult this time around.
The Democrat Underground has turned into Hannityville. The hatred for Hillary is far worse than 2008.
It would be nice to see Skinner lose his shirt after the Hillary supporters are banned and she gets the nod.

Cruz gains a little ground on Trump tonight (none / 0) (#73)
by CoralGables on Sat Mar 05, 2016 at 11:05:25 PM EST

Sanders falls further behind Clinton

He'll probably make it up today (none / 0) (#101)
by Towanda on Sun Mar 06, 2016 at 10:08:03 AM EST

in Maine, taking him bsck to where he was two days ago -- two hundred pledged delegates behind. And then he'll probably fall farther behind, again, two days from now.

Even more probable, downright predictable, is that a state the size of Maine going for Sanders will be treated by some media as equivalent, again, to a state the size of Michigan going for Clinton. So, I just mute the sound and click on my apps to delegate trackers to stay reality-based.

(By the way, the Guardian delegate tracker wins for weirdest graphics: Little cartoon candidates, riding their bandwagons with hydraulic lifts that hoist them up to outlines of states, to then paint the states in colors to signify their wins -- all while they mouth their campaign mantras in little balloons. Furriners attempting to follow our politics are having their fun with us.)

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: Most Bernie tweeters I see are mad at the media (none / 0) (#103)
by ruffian on Sun Mar 06, 2016 at 11:08:59 AM EST

Because the media treats the Clinton nomination as just as numerically probable as the Trump nomination at this point. Apparently delegate math is not their strong suit.

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Clinton's best stretch is between now and March 15 (none / 0) (#76)
by Trickster on Sun Mar 06, 2016 at 03:58:32 AM EST

After Maine, she might win every state between now and March 15 by 20 points, and that's 857 delegates (not counting the Marianas' 6 delegates, no idea where they will go). Her lead in pledged delegates will likely exceed 375 and may well hit 400 if the voting goes according to current expectation. Could hit 500 if the party begins to coalesce behind the nominee, but Democrats tend not to act like that, unfortunately.

The calendar gets better for Sanders after that, but not enough better to have a realistic chance to catch up if 375-400 happens. He has to find a way to prevent that from happening.

I guess (none / 0) (#78)
by TrevorBolder on Sun Mar 06, 2016 at 06:19:58 AM EST

Cruz or Trump, not very pleasant choices, Cruz mainly because he invites discord, the antithesis of governing.
Trump, is just all over the place. There is no idea of what he would do, he can say 1 thing, and do another, and completely shrug it off. (I suppose that is like most politicians, though)
But that was Trumps appeal, the anti politician, yikes, when his supporters eventually come to realize that he is the ultimate politician, selling snake oil all these years, that will not be pretty.

I need more money to retire soon, and find a warm fishing locale. NY is just too expensive, taxes are a killer here, and wading into the surf in November gets a bit chilly.

Michigan GOP Poll Yesterday (none / 0) (#87)
by CoralGables on Sun Mar 06, 2016 at 08:20:54 AM EST

showed Kasich leading at +2. Today two new polls show Kasich a distant 4th in both at -24 and -28 with Trump leading both.

Well (none / 0) (#90)
by Ga6thDem on Sun Mar 06, 2016 at 08:45:32 AM EST

if those two new polls are correct then I would imagine Kasich can go in the dead man walking category with Rubio. I think that also lessens his chances of winning Ohio.

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Of course Trump (none / 0) (#93)
by smott on Sun Mar 06, 2016 at 09:00:47 AM EST

Wants to go one on one v Teddy.
But I think the reality is they all need to stay in and play defense, try to keep Trump from the 1237 and force an open convention.

If they can force Trump to go Indie, fine.
Let him take his 37% and form the TrumpKK.
They can keep their 60+% and try to salvage something from the wreckage.

Either way it is suicide. But forcing Trump Indie will at least be removing the White Supremacist faction.

I guess the question is whether they want to do that, or keep trying to hide that portion of their party that now is comfortable saying the quiet parts out loud.

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: Yes (none / 0) (#99)
by Ga6thDem on Sun Mar 06, 2016 at 09:41:33 AM EST

that's definitely one way they could handle it. They keep swearing they're not the party of the KKK though all evidence to the contrary.
Trump exposing the GOP has been a good thing I think in a lot of ways. I think it was Joe Biden that said he's going to force the country to deal with and face it's racism.

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I (none / 0) (#98)
by FlJoe on Sun Mar 06, 2016 at 09:28:49 AM EST

am not buying Kasich in 4th, Rubio is circling the drain everywhere and Cruz's latest surge has been fueled mostly by Evangelicals jumping back aboard in the bible belt.

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: Hmm, yes, Michigan is (5.00 / 2) (#100)
by Towanda on Sun Mar 06, 2016 at 09:57:35 AM EST

many mini-states in one and not monolithic. That's true of many states, of course, but the disparities are great among Detroit denizens, Ann Arbor libruls, and Da Yoopers, Dere . . . and there are many more varieties of Michiganders. A sampling that doesn't do a good job of representing the multiple Michigans could cause a skewed result.

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Another Primary Day | 114 comments (114 topical)

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