Sept 10 - 17, 2016
- Trump Favorable 33
- Trump Unfavorable 62
- Hillary Favorable 40
- Hillary Unfavorable 56
Tracking the last month, Hillary's favorability has grown 3 points and her unfavorability has dropped 3 points. Both Trump's favorability and unfavorability have stayed the same. She's doing better, he's stayed the same.
Another Gallup poll talks about the likely number of voters. I wish it just gave numbers rather than its analysis because it cherry picks. I think the important numbers are this: Only 47% of voters in the age grop of 18 to 34 plant to vote. That's 20 points below 2004, 27 points lower than 2008 and 19 points lower than 2012. That's bad for Trump.
On the other hand, 72% of voters in the 35 to 54 group and 82% of voters over 55 plan to vote -- the latter is especially good for Hillary.
In 1992, Bill Clinton ran against George H.W. Bush. Bush's approval rating in July, 1992, four months before the election, was only 29% -- lower than either Hillary or Trump's.
Numbers may not lie, but how they are cherry-picked make all the difference.
What difference does it make if Trump and Clinton both have low unfavorability ratings? Even if their approval ratings drop to 10% each, one is going to win and one is going to lose.
I'm looking instead at which one of these candidates will get out the vote? Hillary's GOTV effort is formidable. As late as August, Trump thought he didn't need one. People would just wake up that date and go vote for him.
My view: Hillary's got this -- as long as people register and come out to vote.
