Unlike the Sheriff, I don't see any signs of an exit plan. (Why was he wearing house slippers if he intended to make a fast getaway?) And if the concert was really his target, why would he wait until the last performer was almost done with his set?
I do think Paddock was expecting back-up for whatever he was planning, and that it was likely a more grandiose plan. Maybe he expected his back-up to put remote detonators in the cell phones. Why so many cell phones if he wasn't communicating with someone or planning on using the phones as detonators? What did the hotel show as his planned check-out date? I doubt his suite is the kind where you can just call in the morning and say "I'd like to stay another day."
Who were his intended accomplices? Were any of them FBI informants (meaning this was an FBI sting gone south?) Were they members of a radical right domestic group, a European faction of ISIS or some some other international terror group? I'm not ready to speculate on that yet. (Although I've pretty much ruled out his girlfriend and the Philippines.)
Original Post:
Police have now interviewed the security guard. The Sheriff changes the timeline and now says the security guard was shot at 9:59 p.m. He was not responding to the shooting, but to a report of an open room door on the 32nd floor. He used his radio to ask for help after being shot. There was a maintenance worker present on the floor and the sheriff said something the guard did prevented him from being killed.
Paddock began shooting at 10:05 pm. -- six minutes after the guard was shot. The Sheriff said they don't think the guard's presence or shooting sped up the timeline of the shooting.
The Sheriff confirmed the guard heard "drilling" and they did find that Paddock was drilling on the outer wall of the suite but he hadn't finished or gotten through the wall. As to why, he speculated that maybe he was going to put a camera there.
The sheriff maintains his personal belief that Paddock had an escape plan. This is based on the explosives in the car. He thinks he was going to use light flashes to distract the police and get out of the hotel.
There was no more lineup of officials (just the FBI guy there was behind him.) The Sheriff will no refer to Stephen Paddock by name. It was a very defensive interview -- he mentioned more than once the media made it seem like there were time gaps and the police weren't doing their job. He insisted they are working full time on this but Paddock hid his tracks too well.
Apparently, not that well, since the sheriff says they have 200 sightings of him in Las Vegas -- just nothing in the hours before the shooting.
He confirmed Paddock was gambling Saturday night and wouldn't say when he stopped. He said he didn't know how many cell phones were found in the room. He asked the FBI guy who wouldn't answer. He either didn't know or wouldn't answer the question as to the number of phones or whether the phones showed any communications before the shootings.
In another big change to the overall timeline, he says Paddock checked into the hotel on the 25th, not the 28th. (I questioned this in my last post, mentioning reports that he switched rooms because the suite wasn't available until Saturday.) That's pretty big, because it would mean he spent a full week at the hotel.
Questions not asked at the presser: Was he there the whole time? How many times did he ask the valets to bring his car up? Where else was he spotted in the days leading up to the shooting? (Since the rooms were comped, the hotel would have noticed if he missed a day or more of gambling. Every time he goes down to gamble, he either uses chips from his last session or takes out a new marker. I'd bet it's the latter and that he cashes out after each session. 8 hours is not unusual for a gambling session for regular gamblers in the comped categories.)
Also not asked: Were any of the guns or the "personal protection" equipment he had in the room purchased in the days leading up to the shooting?
How many times did he communicate with Marilou after she left on 9/15 and before the shooting? They identified her within a day -- surely the FBI got an emergency Title III or FISA wiretap on her phone as soon as they identified her. Even if she switched phones after leaving on the 15th, they would have immediately gotten her phone records and GPS and cell site locator records for the time period leading up to the 15th. By now they've gotten the information from her as to what phone she used overseas after the 15th and would have gotten the records. How many people besides her daughter did she speak with? One of the numbers would likely have been Paddock's, even if the phone was not under his name.
(Things probably no one but me is curious about: How much cash did he have on his body and in the room, and how many gambling chips? How much money was found in the safe in the garage at the Mesquite house? Did he have any credit cards on body? He must have one, or a bank debit card at the least, unless he carried wads of cash with him. )
The Sheriff says they are no closer to a motive but the FBI behavior analysis folks don't think there a single incident in his life that led to him doing this. They haven't finished a medical analysis. Some of the FBI behavioral folks are in LA and present when Marilou is questioned.
He insists there was no second shooter, he had no ideology and no connection to foreign groups. No questions were asked about whether they have found anyone else who knew his plan or assisted it.
His brother is in Las Vegas and providing information. He implied the new searches at Paddock's houses in Reno and Mesquite, and of his vehicles, are being done at the behest of the behavioral analysis unit, to see if they overlooked anything that might disclose more about him. I assume they are also sitting in on the brother's interviews.
There will be no more pressers until Friday. And the LVPD twitter page has a media notice up that there will be no interviews granted with individual officers, so don't ask. Why? Were they unhappy with something the officers told 60 Minutes?
Lastly, the Sheriff (or FBI) has renamed the shootings the "1October shootings" with the hashtag "#1October". No more "Las Vegas Shootings."