Rank-and-file Republican senators are girding themselves to vote for a trimmed-down repeal of Obamacare that pulls out the unpopular individual and employer mandates without touching much of the rest of the program, convinced that the House wouldn't just take their exact bill and send it along to President Trump to sign.

Their argument is the bill buys them time and acts as an empty vessel for congressional leaders to pour the magic potion of a passable replacement into during a conference between House and Senate leaders. They say the worst-case scenario at that point is that no bill materializes and the effort collapses later instead of this week.

[...]

There's no reason to think a conference committee will have any better luck finding a bill that 50 GOP senators and 218 GOP congressmen can support. At that point, there's a real possibility that whatever the Senate passes would be passed into law by desperate House Republicans before the Senate ever gets to touch it again.

If the Obamacare repeal debate has proven anything, it's that many GOP lawmakers are a lot more interested in what's politically possible than what's good policy. It's easy to see how passing something, anything, might become the mantra if conference negotiations fall apart, President Trump demands a win while congressional leaders make the "but you promised" argument to reluctant lawmakers. It's what they've been doing from the start.

Senate leaders are already hinting at that prospect. Majority Whip John Cornyn (R-TX) floated the idea of Republicans just passing the skinny repeal into law and calling it a day Wednesday afternoon, telling reporters, "The House could take up the Senate bill and pass that or they could amend it and send it back."

CNBC

Because a closer look at the map of states where the Obamacare exchanges are already without multiple insurer options is decidedly Republican-dominated. It's filled with red states like Alaska, South Carolina, Wyoming, Arizona, Mississippi, Alabama, and Oklahoma. Not all the GOP senators in those states will resist ending the mandate, but Arizona's Senator John McCain said Tuesday he wasn't ready to vote for any replacement bill and his state's dwindling insurance options could be why. Without McCain alone, the "skinny bill" is doomed, and don't be surprised if a few other Republicans like Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski vote against it too.

But this isn't just about protecting constituents from losing all their insurance coverage choices. From the beginning, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has put insurance company priorities at the top of his list in this Obamacare replacement process. The one thing he's fought to keep in every bill is some form of subsidies to help Americans buy insurance plans, which is an indirect taxpayer money hand off to the insurance industry.

Even the "skinny bill" keeps those subsidies in place. But that won't be enough for the insurance companies if the mandate is killed and fewer people are buying insurance. The Obamacare insurance mandate is a clear example of a government-imposed rule meant to boost a private industry; its powerful lobbyists aren't letting go of it easily.

Throw in the very powerful argument that private health insurance exchanges in several states across the country could disappear in a hurry if the "skinny bill" is passed, and you can see why this measure is already dead on arrival.

House Republicans leaders are instructing lawmakers to hold off leaving for August recess this weekend in case the Senate passes Obamacare repeal legislation and the House comes under pressure to act.

In an email to lawmakers Thursday, House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), raised the possibility that they might need to take votes in the coming days if the Senate approves a health care bill. House Republicans are also gearing up to waive chamber rules mandating they wait three days after a bill is made public to vote on the legislation on the floor, what's known as "martial law" in the House.

The latter gives Republicans flexibility to take up the Senate repeal bill immediately.