Amy Drops, Will Support Biden

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2020
Posted on Mon Mar 02, 2020 at 04:35:20 PM EST
Tags: 2020 Primaries (all tags)

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Amy Klobuchar suspended her presidential campaign today, a day after Pete B. and two days after Tom Steyer.

"Faux-Dem" Mike B. is blanketing the airwaves in every Super Tuesday state. I wonder if we will see commercials with Barbra Streisand and Clint Eastood, both of whom are supporting him.

I think Elizabeth will be next to fold. But at 2 pm today MT, she tweeted out a request for funds saying she's in.

The question is, if Elizabeth drops tomorrow or Wednesday and throws her support to Bernie, can they and Bernie's "army of supporters" prevail against Biden and Bloomberg?

One thing to keep in mind: The millions of people who voted early in California. I think Bernie will get most of the early voters as Biden was a dying duck until South Carolina.

I finally decided who to vote for and dropped off my ballot today. I voted for one of the two candidates who most share my political agenda and whom I believe has the ability if elected to move us in a progressive direction.[More...]

I do not want the status quo and politics of yesteryear. I want to push the Democratic party and our country forward, not march in place.

Trump lives in an alternate universe. In addition to the legion of other faults he has, he is unpredictable. So I'm not wasting much time thinking about him in terms of which Democrat to support. The world is on notice, and the governments of every country, including our own, surely have defensive plans in place to neutralize him if need be. (Neutralize means to stop him from pressing the wrong button or committing us to some clearly abominable action-- to freeze him from taking action, not to harm him in any way.)

We get the Government we elect. If enough of our fellow Americans are so detached from reality they belive Trump is good for the country and they vote for him, then our fellow Americans are the problem, and whether it was Biden, Warren, Bloomberg or Sanders opposing him, wouldn't have resulted in a different outcome.

Everyone in Super Tuesday states should vote for the Democrat they would most like to be President. Speculating on who can beat Trump is just playing Trump's game.

< Pete B. Drops Out, Amy K. Cancels Rally | Chris Matthews Retires from Hardball, Effective Tonight >

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Amy Drops, Will Support Biden | 51 comments (51 topical)

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Had Amy peaked earlier ... (5.00 / 1) (#1)
by Robot Porter on Mon Mar 02, 2020 at 05:31:26 PM EST

she could have had a real shot.

Or if she'd actually won NH.

I'm not saying she would have won. But she would have had a shot.

And her announcement in the snow is still a great political moment.

Ehh (5.00 / 1) (#21)
by smott on Tue Mar 03, 2020 at 12:01:17 PM EST

She never had POC , I don't th8 k she had a viable path, not did Pete.
Warren is not much better with AAs unfortunately.


: I really meant peaking ... (none / 0) (#25)
by Robot Porter on Tue Mar 03, 2020 at 12:14:26 PM EST

like in the summer or fall.

I think Warren (5.00 / 3) (#20)
by smott on Tue Mar 03, 2020 at 12:00:24 PM EST

Is staying in as long as possible.
She stands a chance of being a real power broker at a contested convention, and quite honestly, these old men could literally keel over on the trail any day.
I've thought Bernie looks awful, and Joe sounds awful, like he can't keep two thoughts together.

What a mess we ended up in, after starting out with such a promising field.

I (5.00 / 1) (#23)
by CaptHowdy on Tue Mar 03, 2020 at 12:11:54 PM EST

voted

Gabbard, right? (none / 0) (#26)
by Robot Porter on Tue Mar 03, 2020 at 12:17:49 PM EST

:D :D :D


: I wrote in (5.00 / 6) (#27)
by CaptHowdy on Tue Mar 03, 2020 at 12:21:17 PM EST

Hillary

Tip for Biden (5.00 / 1) (#37)
by CaptHowdy on Tue Mar 03, 2020 at 03:03:09 PM EST

Dude

See a stylist.

Get that nasty looking old man hair on the back of your head cut.

CUT IT.

so you don't look like some one just woke you up at the extended care facility.

: I thought (none / 0) (#38)
by Ga6thDem on Tue Mar 03, 2020 at 03:19:58 PM EST

the exact same thing when I saw a picture of him from the side.

: Biden has (none / 0) (#39)
by KeysDan on Tue Mar 03, 2020 at 05:21:15 PM EST

Been sporting that look for a while. Not familiar with the intricacies of the procedure, but could this longish, untethered hair be related to his hair plug/transplant of some years ago? But still, surely a stylist could improve on the Orderly-haircut.

With this, FiveThirtyEight increases ... (none / 0) (#2)
by Robot Porter on Mon Mar 02, 2020 at 05:46:03 PM EST

the chances of "no one" getting enough delegates to 67%, while he's moved Biden up to 17%, Sanders down to 16%, Bloomberg down to 0.1% and Warren down to 0%.

They also now have Sanders ending with 1,542 delegates, Biden with 1,520, Bloomberg 618, and Warren with 259.

I saw that (5.00 / 1) (#3)
by CaptHowdy on Mon Mar 02, 2020 at 05:49:39 PM EST

Only one side has 1990

If that happens.


Also (5.00 / 1) (#4)
by CaptHowdy on Mon Mar 02, 2020 at 05:57:31 PM EST

Can't assume Warren will support Bernie. She might not.


Even if she (5.00 / 1) (#6)
by Ga6thDem on Mon Mar 02, 2020 at 06:04:23 PM EST

did support Bernie there's no guarantee her voters would.


: I think when it comes to it (none / 0) (#22)
by smott on Tue Mar 03, 2020 at 12:02:00 PM EST

She may just free her delegates

FiveThirtyEight changes it again ... (none / 0) (#24)
by Robot Porter on Tue Mar 03, 2020 at 12:12:24 PM EST

now it looks like this:

No One 61%
Biden 31%
Sanders 8%
Bloomberg 0.1%
Warren 0%


Watching Bloomberg on the (none / 0) (#5)
by ragebot on Mon Mar 02, 2020 at 05:57:51 PM EST

FOX Townhall. He has not really been challenged by anyone, easy questions and easy answers.

But I have to say it is hard for me to remember anything he said. The guy comes across as an empty suit.

I keep hearing claims that he has a temper and can really go off the deep end if he gets pushed but so far it seems like he is Casper Milktoast.

Bloomberg finally took a hit (none / 0) (#7)
by ragebot on Mon Mar 02, 2020 at 06:07:46 PM EST

FOX anchor asked him about his business in China and he gave a mealy mouth answer that downplayed how involved his business is in generating profits in China.

Next he got hit with his claim that Xi is not a dictator. I am reminded of how bad the NBA looked when it became clear profits in China were more important that dissing China for its human right violations.

I am betting this is gonna be a bigger issue as time passes. No question Bloomberg has a lot more money than Trump, but there is also no question that Bloomberg's profits now are highly dependent on his business in China.

Bloomie (none / 0) (#11)
by TrevorBolder on Mon Mar 02, 2020 at 07:33:27 PM EST

Is in China's pocket. They have only just begun to dig into that..

And everyone knows, our real adversary on the global stage is China, not that economic has been, Russia.


How is a guy worth 60 Billion (5.00 / 1) (#28)
by Chuck0 on Tue Mar 03, 2020 at 12:42:37 PM EST

in anyone's pocket? keep trolling.


I thought Trump said (none / 0) (#15)
by Jeralyn on Mon Mar 02, 2020 at 10:51:53 PM EST

it's Iran.


: On the global (1.00 / 1) (#51)
by TrevorBolder on Sun Mar 08, 2020 at 06:51:38 AM EST

Stage, Its China.
Iran is a localized MidEast troublemaker, spreading terrorism where they can. But their hold on power in Iran is getting tenuous. The people are in economic distress and under a dictatorship.
Russia, a greater global pwoer, (Nukes), but a fast fading economy,
China, they desire to be The Superpower.
Which country has consistently been caught spying on our military and corporations. How many Chinese spys have been outed in the last 2 years.
The virus they have unleashed, has set them back exponential however. Their economic might has been diminished by aggressive American policy these past 3 years, and now the Corona virus is further diminishing China.

Bloomberg details his gun control position (none / 0) (#8)
by ragebot on Mon Mar 02, 2020 at 06:18:20 PM EST

He says the restrictions should be no firearm sales to criminals, peeps with mental problems, and minors and goes on to say this is something the NRA agrees with; which is true.

But once again he shows the weakness of almost every gun control advocate I know of when he says these rules do not apply to guns sold over the internet. Every internet site I know of requires the guns they sell to be sent to an FFL (legit gun dealer) who does the same check as the gun shops do.

Interestingly as Bloomberg was closing a guy in the crowd started yelling and when the anchors tried to silence him three or four people jumped up with signs objecting to gun control and FOX went to commercial.

Requires is too strong a word. (none / 0) (#13)
by Abdul Abulbul Amir on Mon Mar 02, 2020 at 08:20:10 PM EST

I've sold a number of guns interstate through the internet. Every one has been shipped to an FFL holder that does the background check on the buyer.

If I wanted to commit a federal crime and ship direct to the buyer the internet site would be none the wiser.


These kind of qualifiers ... (none / 0) (#14)
by Yman on Mon Mar 02, 2020 at 09:27:37 PM EST

Every internet site I know of requires the guns they sell to be sent to an FFL (legit gun dealer) who does the same check as the gun shops do.

... are always a dead giveaway.

How Online Gun Sales Can Exploit a Major Loophole in Background Checks


hey the topic is the primaries (none / 0) (#16)
by Jeralyn on Mon Mar 02, 2020 at 10:53:35 PM EST

not gun control. Please stay on topic.


: My intent was not to get into the weeds (none / 0) (#32)
by ragebot on Tue Mar 03, 2020 at 01:52:04 PM EST

I thought Bloomberg saying he and the NRA agreed about gun control was a significant change in his, and the dems, position about gun control.
Point is Bloomberg will likely get questions about just what his position on gun control is after saying what he did. I don't see a lot of dems voting for him in primaries if he continues to say the only restrictions on gun sales should be a background check to eliminate criminals, minors, and those with mental health issues.

Overall Bloomberd did OK (none / 0) (#9)
by ragebot on Mon Mar 02, 2020 at 06:29:21 PM EST

Nothing really memorable but my biggest takeaway was his gun control comments.

Saying the only restrictions he favors are no sales to criminals, those with mental issues, and minors plays well with a normal FOX audience but not so well with most dems.

Have to say the crowd was very heavy with Bloomberg/dem supporters. He had a few weak jokes that got lots of clapping.

: My (none / 0) (#10)
by FlJoe on Mon Mar 02, 2020 at 06:48:51 PM EST

gut feeling is that Bloomberg will have a disappointing day tomorrow. The buzz at least is all goings Biden's way, I sense a lot of movement from Bloomberg back to Biden.

: He (none / 0) (#12)
by TrevorBolder on Mon Mar 02, 2020 at 07:33:54 PM EST

Pays well

I actually have not decided (none / 0) (#17)
by CaptHowdy on Tue Mar 03, 2020 at 07:58:49 AM EST

Who I'm voting for. That's not usually the case with me.

Kornacki suggested it could be ... (none / 0) (#29)
by Robot Porter on Tue Mar 03, 2020 at 01:07:15 PM EST

even better than that.

There appears to be a chance of Biden getting out of the night almost even with Bernie.


Ooops ... (none / 0) (#30)
by Robot Porter on Tue Mar 03, 2020 at 01:07:58 PM EST

that was meant to reply to your delegate post below.


538 (none / 0) (#31)
by CaptHowdy on Tue Mar 03, 2020 at 01:31:05 PM EST

But one thing we haven't had a lot of since South Carolina was hard data. That changed late last night with a flurry of new polls -- we now have at least two polls conducted since South Carolina in every single Super Tuesday state. So by the time we froze the FiveThirtyEight forecast at 9:30 a.m. on Tuesday,1 the Super Tuesday picture was a lot clearer -- and overall, things look good for Biden.
Biden is now about twice as likely as Sanders to win a plurality of pledged delegates, according to our primary model, which gives him a 65 percent chance of doing so compared with a 34 percent chance for Sanders. This represents the culmination of a trend that has been underway in the model for about a week; it started to shift toward Biden once polls showed the potential for him to win big in South Carolina -- and it anticipated a polling bounce in the Super Tuesday states if he did win big there. Still, even after South Carolina, Biden's plurality chances had risen only to 32 percent, compared with 64 percent for Sanders. That means the polling bounce from the events of the past few days has been bigger than the model anticipated.

: We'll have plenty of ... (none / 0) (#33)
by Robot Porter on Tue Mar 03, 2020 at 01:59:13 PM EST

hard data tonight!

That would be enormous (none / 0) (#35)
by smott on Tue Mar 03, 2020 at 02:49:05 PM EST

For Biden.


Heilemann just said (none / 0) (#18)
by CaptHowdy on Tue Mar 03, 2020 at 08:26:18 AM EST

Biden is ok if he is 150 delegates or less behind Sanders when it's all counted.

: Yes I saw that as well (none / 0) (#36)
by smott on Tue Mar 03, 2020 at 02:49:33 PM EST

Staying even is a huge win for Biden

You are far too optimistic Jeralyn. (none / 0) (#19)
by Chuck0 on Tue Mar 03, 2020 at 08:53:23 AM EST

There is no one left to neutralize orange jesus. He has now successfully surrounded himself with sycophants. Much of the cabinet is made up of rotating "acting" secretaries. Positions never to be filled by Senate approved people.

The only lesson from the Mueller investigation and impeachment is that he is free to do what he pleases. Free to act in any manner he sees fit. There is NO ONE to stop him now.

You are correct though, in that if he is re-elected, then the American people ARE the problem. Or at least a large number of them. And in that case, I believe it is time to re-examine the make up of the republic. A split may indeed be necessary.

Meanwhile. (none / 0) (#34)
by KeysDan on Tue Mar 03, 2020 at 02:41:45 PM EST

At his rally in Charlotte, NC, Trump expressed his latest fever dream to the delight of his followers. Mayor Pete and a Senator, whose name he could not remember, from a state he could not recall ( "a state we will win" was the best he could come up with) endorsed Joe Biden. Very bad, "a quid pro quo". And, both Pete and the unnamed person " should be impeached". The MAGA crowd took the cue and cheered raucously, so happy to show their master that he trained them well.

Super Tuesday Predictions: (none / 0) (#40)
by Robot Porter on Tue Mar 03, 2020 at 05:50:13 PM EST

Virginia
Biden 43.7%
Sanders 26.8%
Warren 13%
Bloomberg 9.8%

Vermont
Sanders 84%
Warren 6%
Biden 3%
Bloomberg 1%

Alabama
Biden 62.2%
Bloomberg 16.3%
Sanders 15.2%
Warren 4%

California
Sanders 34.5%
Biden 29.2%
Warren 13.6%
Bloomberg 11%

Tennessee
Biden 57.3%
Sanders 20
Bloomberg 12%
Warren 6%

North Carolina
Biden 44.2%
Sanders 27.1%
Bloomberg 15.2%
Warren 7%

Massachusetts
Warren 27.3%
Sanders 26.2%
Biden 24.8%
Bloomberg 16%

Texas
Biden 34%
Sanders 31.6%
Warren 14.6%
Bloomberg 9%

Minnesota
Sanders 38%
Biden 29.4%
Bloomberg 17%
Warren 12%

Colorado
Sanders 43%
Biden 32.2%
Bloomberg 16%
Warren 4%

Arkansas
Biden 51%
Bloomberg 24%
Sanders 20.1%
Warren 2%

Maine
Sanders 53%
Warren 18%
Bloomberg 17%
Biden 16%

Utah
Sanders 58%
Biden 34.7%
Bloomberg 8%
Warren 3%

American Samoa
Biden 60%
Sanders 23%
Warren 10%
Bloomberg 4%

Bloomberg (5.00 / 1) (#43)
by FlJoe on Tue Mar 03, 2020 at 06:43:47 PM EST

wins AS, Gabbard second, better up your game.

Looks like Biden is over preforming in VA and NC judging by how early they called it.


I would have thought (none / 0) (#46)
by Zorba on Tue Mar 03, 2020 at 07:16:00 PM EST

That Tulsi would have won AS, since she was born there.


Right. And on the same basis, Warren (none / 0) (#49)
by Peter G on Tue Mar 03, 2020 at 08:56:21 PM EST

should win Oklahoma. Not.


: Gabbard (none / 0) (#50)
by Zorba on Wed Mar 04, 2020 at 02:47:15 PM EST

did get one delegate. Maybe if she had been full Samoan and not part Samoan, she would have gotten more. 😏

Interesting (none / 0) (#41)
by Ga6thDem on Tue Mar 03, 2020 at 05:53:08 PM EST

and it seems likely. Always enjoy your posts. I notice you go absent when it is not presidential election time. I hope you are enjoying hobbies during your non political blogging time.


Thanks ... (none / 0) (#42)
by Robot Porter on Tue Mar 03, 2020 at 06:15:55 PM EST

yeah, I get busy.

And this is a fairly safe place to discuss the election.

It's brutal out there to discuss politics these days.


: Have you calculated (none / 0) (#48)
by Jeralyn on Tue Mar 03, 2020 at 07:42:48 PM EST

how your predictions would translate to delegate votes (for Biden and Sanders)?

My American Samoa prediction is wrong ... (none / 0) (#44)
by Robot Porter on Tue Mar 03, 2020 at 06:49:20 PM EST

they're calling it for ...

Bloomberg.


: Kind (none / 0) (#45)
by Ga6thDem on Tue Mar 03, 2020 at 07:01:04 PM EST

of a surprise but hey, better Mike than Tulsi is what I'll say.

I just put up a Super Tuesday Results Thread (none / 0) (#47)
by Jeralyn on Tue Mar 03, 2020 at 07:40:23 PM EST

Can we move the discussion here?. Sorry for the inconvenience, I was making new graphics for the results thread.