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How To Read Polls

Andrew Sullivan writes:

Instead of conflating all the moral issues, [Americans between 18 and 29] have no problem with gay dignity and equality, but retain many of the moral conflicts of their parents with respect to the far more troubling issue of abortion.

What did the poll Sullivan cites for this argument actually say?

Forty-four percent said they believed that same-sex couples should be permitted to get married, compared with 28 percent of the public at large. . . . The findings on gay marriage were reminiscent of an exit poll on Election Day 2004: 41 percent of 18-to-29-year-old voters said gay couples should be permitted to legally marry, according to the exit poll. Their views on abortion mirror those of the public at large: 24 percent said it should not be permitted at all, while 38 percent said it should be made available but with greater restrictions. Thirty-seven percent said it should be generally available.

In Sully's world, 44% approving gay marriage constitutes "hav[ing] no problem with gay dignity and equality" but 37% saying abortion "should be generally available" (and 38% saying abortion should be available but with restrictions, which is what Roe allows for) reflects "moral conflicts."

This is, of course, ridiculous. Sully, as most of us do, rightly wants gay dignity and equality, including the right for gays to marry if they choose. On the other hand, Sullivan is personally "morally conflicted" about abortion.

So what does Sully do? He distorts poll results to agree with him. Sorry Sully, they don't. 44% approval means more than half do not approve of gay marriage. I wish it were otherwise. Apparently, they are "morally conflicted" on the issue.

Perhaps inadvertently, 65% support, at a minimum, Roe v. Wade. To wit, there is much less "moral conflict" regarding the right to chooose than there is for gay marriage.

Sully demonstrates the typical reaction to polls by pundits - they read into them the views they want them to say.

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  • Display: Sort:
    Throw out the Ink blots! (none / 0) (#1)
    by Stewieeeee on Wed Jun 27, 2007 at 04:58:46 PM EST
    Just start asking people what they see in the latest polls.


    don't think that's what he's saying... (none / 0) (#2)
    by lawstudent on Wed Jun 27, 2007 at 05:05:33 PM EST
    i think sully's main point is that 18-29 year olds' views on gay marriage are diverging from that of their parents.  although they're only at 44%, that's A LOT better than the old folks' 28% approval.  in fact, it's just over 50% better.

    abortion, on the other hand, is equally viewed amongst the different age demographics.  i didn't take his piece as promoting an agenda or manipulating/misquoting to support his point.  i think he was more pondering/reflecting on this somewhat unusual discrepancy and asking why?

    That's not what he wrote (none / 0) (#5)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Jun 27, 2007 at 05:15:37 PM EST
    He said support for gay dignity and equality was strong but that abortion was "morally conflicting."

    He MAY have meant what YOU wrote, but he wrote what he wrote.

    Parent

    It does look like the support (none / 0) (#3)
    by andgarden on Wed Jun 27, 2007 at 05:11:09 PM EST
    for civil unions is overwhelming in my age group.

    It is strong in all age groups (none / 0) (#6)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Jun 27, 2007 at 05:16:20 PM EST
    Gay marriage only garners 44% support.

    Parent
    Marriage + Civil Unions is 8 pts higher (none / 0) (#7)
    by andgarden on Wed Jun 27, 2007 at 05:20:06 PM EST
    for young adults. The percentage supporting full marriage rights is also much higher. But, as you say, not a majority in either case. The differences between age groups on abortion do, indeed, seem insignificant. I think you're probably right that Sullivan is reading his own personal views into the poll.

    Parent
    Ask yourself this (none / 0) (#8)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Jun 27, 2007 at 05:27:16 PM EST
    If you add support for civil unions and for gay marriage, does it exceed 65%? Heck, does it match it?

    If it does not, then how is one view 'easy support' and the other 'morally conflicted?'

    Sully is clearly projecting his views here.

    Parent

    Trying not to be snide, but (none / 0) (#10)
    by andgarden on Wed Jun 27, 2007 at 05:35:01 PM EST
    I think the title of his next book probably ought to be "Morally Conflicted."

    Parent
    A more general poll-reading algorithm (none / 0) (#9)
    by roy on Wed Jun 27, 2007 at 05:31:16 PM EST
    1. Read the vacuous summary from a major news source.  If you like the results, you are done.

    2. If the vacuous summary tells you how to find the complete report, stop.  You have made a mistake.  Those summaries never tell you how to find the complete report.  Go back to 1.

    3. Use Google to locate the complete report.  Definately use the name of the polling organization in your search, and any quoted questions or responses from the summary.  Use some key numbers, especially the sample size, but also response numbers and even percentages.  Try it with and without the name of the organization who paid for the poll.  For any company name, leave off things like "Incorporated" or "Company".  You can include the year and month name in your search, but don't try a complete date because there are too many different formats.  Be careful where you put quotation marks.  Use your browsers "tabs" feature so you can load up a dozen pages without leaving your Google page, or get a better browser.

    4. Skim the complete report.  Try to figure out which questions correspond to claims made in the vacuous study.  Notice that the data don't really support the claim.  Notice that there are other questions that are more interesting and relevant, but not mentioned in the summary.  Blame either liberal or conservative media bias.

    5. Stop. You have read a poll.


    Rather a bizarre comment Roy (none / 0) (#11)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Jun 27, 2007 at 05:37:43 PM EST
    I blasmed PERSONAL bias, which is a trait common enough from both the Left and Right.

    We skew to our own beliefs.

    I quote from the story. The poll itself is available not in some obscure location,  but at THIS VERY site. J wrote it up last night.

    Your comment, to the degree directed at me, seem outrageously unfair.

    I guess one could add a corollary to poll reading - "await the unfair and misleading comment" in the thread.

    Parent

    whoops (none / 0) (#12)
    by roy on Wed Jun 27, 2007 at 05:55:05 PM EST
    Your comment, to the degree directed at me, seem outrageously unfair.

    It wasn't directed at you, but at whoever.  Often, people just read MSM or blogger sum-ups and take them at face value.  A shallow read of the NY Times piece or the Andrew Sullivan piece would be a symptom of that.  

    But you didn't do a shallow read, you went to better data and teased out what was purported to mean what.  That's exactly the sort of thing I hoped to encourage by telling people the tricks I use to track down complete poll reports, something I've made a point of doing in the past when we've discussed polls here.

    And the bit about "media bias" was just a tangentially relevant joke.  Maybe my desire to make my point pithily overshadowed by desire to just make my point.

    Parent

    My apologies (none / 0) (#13)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Jun 27, 2007 at 05:57:25 PM EST
    for my misunderstanding.

    Parent
    I started reading Sullivan again (none / 0) (#14)
    by lilybart on Wed Jun 27, 2007 at 07:07:41 PM EST
    after he came out so strongly against torture, and I am interested in relgious issues (from my atheist point of view) and he posts frequently on these, but lately, he has been back to proving he is a conservative and that is where he falls down. How can a man who must know people who can't afford their HIV drugs, hate the idea of trying to give full health care to everyone?  

    Someone who claims to be a Christian, yet supports free markets in what is, a matter of life or death, is NOT  a Christian.

    I feel so sad for him. He is a member of a party that hates him and a church that hates him. I know there is self-loathing in the gay community, but he takes it to a high art.