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Non-Expert Foreign Policy

Anne Applebaum writes:

In the end, most presidents do learn on the job: Bill Clinton would probably never have predicted he'd contemplate bombing Belgrade, just as President Bush surely had never devoted much thought to Afghanistan. It's not easy to predict whose particular set of experiences will suit which particular crisis and which weaknesses will prove fatal. But we can certainly entertain ourselves between now and November 2008 trying to guess.

(Emphasis supplied.) Actually, Anne Applebaum demonstrates her non-expertise on the issues. In 1992, the Balkans were very much a hot spot and Slobodan Milosovic very much an issue:

It was George H. W. Bush's Secretary of State James Baker who went around the Balkans in 1991 remarking that "we don't have a dog in this fight." A remark Serb strongman Slobodan Milosevic took to mean, 'play ball,' and Serbian tanks went rolling into Croatia and Bosnia later that year and the following spring. . . .

President Clinton was aware of the Balkans crisis when he entered office. Similarly, George W. Bush SHOULD HAVE considered the issues of Al Qaida's presence in Afghanistan:

American cruise missiles pounded sites in Afghanistan and Sudan Thursday in retaliation for the deadly bombings of U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania on August 7. "Let our actions today send this message loud and clear -- there are no expendable American targets," U.S. President Clinton said in a televised address to the American people Thursday evening. "There will be no sanctuary for terrorists. We will defend our people, our interests and our values."

It is surprising how much we should know about what our Presidents think about foreign policy issues they will likely face. Ms. Applebaum has unwittingly provided us with wonderful recent examples.

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  • Display: Sort:
    Some learn on the job but some don't. (5.00 / 3) (#4)
    by oculus on Tue Aug 21, 2007 at 04:48:55 PM EST
    Jimmy Carter comes immediately to mind. (1.00 / 1) (#21)
    by jimakaPPJ on Tue Aug 21, 2007 at 06:47:55 PM EST
    Doubtless. (5.00 / 1) (#23)
    by oculus on Tue Aug 21, 2007 at 07:12:02 PM EST
    Time for some EXPERT foreign policy (5.00 / 4) (#5)
    by Sailor on Tue Aug 21, 2007 at 05:03:17 PM EST
    A poll of 100 foreign policy heavyweights Monday showed most believe we're losing the war on terror, we're less safe because of Iraq, and that Islamic fanatics will mount another U.S. strike.

    The bipartisan panel including Madeleine Albright and Lawrence Eagleburger, secretaries of state for former Presidents Bill Clinton and George H.W. Bush, also defied views held by leading presidential candidates such as Sen. Hillary Clinton.

    Nine out of 10 of the former top government, military and intelligence leaders surveyed warn that Americans now face greater danger and anticipate a new spectacular attack in the next decade, Foreign Policy magazine and the liberal-leaning Center for American Progress found.

    That contradicts statements by both President Bush and Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., who jarred liberals at a presidential debate in June when she said, "I believe we are safer than we were."

    Most of those surveyed - including prominent conservatives - blamed the Iraq war for increasing perils at home and its negative impact worldwide.



    In related news (1.00 / 1) (#16)
    by jimakaPPJ on Tue Aug 21, 2007 at 06:35:45 PM EST
    Chicken Little has revised her "Sky is Falling" date from 8/28 until the 12th of never...

    Parent
    The WOT was just (5.00 / 1) (#18)
    by Edger on Tue Aug 21, 2007 at 06:39:25 PM EST
    your fantasy you mean, CL?

    Parent
    Facing The "Dark Assessment" (5.00 / 0) (#12)
    by Edger on Tue Aug 21, 2007 at 06:01:17 PM EST
    Scarecrow @ FDL
    Friday, July 13th, 2007
    We've had an extraordinary week of leaked candor about the catastrophic state of US foreign policy under the Bush/Cheney regime, predictably followed by Presidential denials that al Qaeda is back and blatant propaganda that we're making "satisfactory" progress on the few Iraq benchmarks that are virtually meaningless. The White House, which has always confused inflexible standards and testing with genuine education and wisdom, has been reduced to giving out report cards on itself that translate to "improvement needed" on everything that really matters.  


    But the reality based assessments dominated the news.  First it was the intelligence community's pre-denial assessment that al Qaeda has been allowed to regroup along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border to become as threatening as ever, both for Europe and possibly the US. The obvious conclusion is that the President's six year global war on terror is not only an abject failure but a growing threat to our security.
    ...
    I fear we will stay in Iraq, not because it makes any sense, not because there is even a remote connection between staying and the furtherance of any justifiable US strategic objective in that region, and certainly not because it helps deal with radical terrorism when it so plainly exacerbates it.  No, we will stay because to do otherwise would require our leaders and the media to acknowledge their collective responsibility for the suffering we have unleashed on the Iraqis and our own soldiers.  Has any nation ever managed in its own time such painful self recognition?

    Staying the course, even under the dishonest guise that it represents a "consensus" rather than a moral quagmire is not a defensible policy. Rather, it is an implicit punishment imposed on the hundreds or perhaps thousands of US soldiers who will yet die or be maimed to atone for the errors of everyone who first authorized or still promotes and sanctions this war.

    Now we wait for September for General Petraeus to Secretary Rice, report to Secretary Gates, report to the joint staff... and then report to Congress, and say publicly to Congress what the Bush WH wants them to say, and then report to the American people on what they see on the ground there, and say publicly to the American people what the Bush WH wants them to say...

    Because for Petraeus to say otherwise would require our leaders and the media to acknowledge their collective responsibility for the suffering we have unleashed on the Iraqis and our own soldiers.

    Facing (none / 0) (#15)
    by Edger on Tue Aug 21, 2007 at 06:14:22 PM EST
    More spin and ass-covering today (5.00 / 0) (#50)
    by Edger on Wed Aug 22, 2007 at 10:42:37 AM EST
    Meanwhile, as Crocker was busy spewing his line of bullsh*t, a Black Hawk went down in northern Iraq killing all 14 U.S. soldiers aboard...

    How to talk of of both side of your mouth, by Ryan Crocker:

    The Sept. 15 deadline for Bush's next progress report to Congress is fast approaching, leaving the president little time to show that his U.S. troop buildup is succeeding in providing the enhanced security the Iraqi leaders need to forge a unified way forward.
    ...
    U.S. Ambassador Ryan Crocker, co-author of the highly anticipated report to Congress, also said Tuesday that Washington's blueprint for reconciliation was insufficient to win back control of Iraq. Congressional benchmarks such as laws to share oil revenue and reform security services don't tell the whole story, he said Tuesday.

    Crocker, who will present the report with military commander Gen. David Petraeus, called Iraq's problems difficult but fixable, arguing for more time for his diplomacy and operations by the bolstered American military force.

    "Failure to meet any of them (congressionally mandated benchmarks) does not mean the definitive failure of the state or the society," Crocker said. "Conversely, to make them all would not by any means mean that they've turned the corner and it's a sun-dappled upland from here on in with peace and harmony and background music. It's just a lot more complex than that."



    Wow (5.00 / 1) (#69)
    by squeaky on Thu Aug 23, 2007 at 10:34:52 PM EST
    Whatever....

    Maliki is not the problem.

    via digby

    He sure as hell... (1.00 / 1) (#75)
    by jr on Thu Aug 23, 2007 at 11:58:01 PM EST
    ...ain't a solution.

    Parent
    Well... (none / 0) (#70)
    by Edger on Thu Aug 23, 2007 at 10:56:54 PM EST
    He is the problem from where the neocons stand, I think.

    Parent
    Yes (5.00 / 1) (#71)
    by squeaky on Thu Aug 23, 2007 at 10:58:53 PM EST
    They want Allawi

    Parent
    Yes (none / 0) (#72)
    by Edger on Thu Aug 23, 2007 at 11:05:38 PM EST
    Allawi is much better at obsequious ingratiation and taking orders without questioning.

    Parent
    Not To Mention (5.00 / 1) (#73)
    by squeaky on Thu Aug 23, 2007 at 11:11:42 PM EST
    That he is CIA

    Parent
    Yeah, he's in their pocket. (none / 0) (#74)
    by Edger on Thu Aug 23, 2007 at 11:19:07 PM EST
    Knows the program, and wants to follow it.

    Parent
    Colonialism (5.00 / 1) (#78)
    by squeaky on Fri Aug 24, 2007 at 08:12:57 AM EST
    You sound like a colonist wanting control the ungrateful natives.
    Read Fisk on the issue.

    I want the ungrateful natives... (1.00 / 1) (#79)
    by jr on Fri Aug 24, 2007 at 09:06:41 PM EST
    ...to ask us to leave.  Colonialists, from my understanding, usually want to be in whatever country they're occupying.

    Parent
    Obviously (none / 0) (#80)
    by squeaky on Fri Aug 24, 2007 at 10:09:18 PM EST
    You are not a colonalist for the reason you point out. You just sound like one, which is my point.

    Parent
    Didn't you know?? (1.00 / 1) (#1)
    by jimakaPPJ on Tue Aug 21, 2007 at 04:28:48 PM EST
    President Clinton was aware of the Balkans crisis when he entered office. Similarly, George W. Bush SHOULD HAVE considered the issues of Al Qaida's presence in Afghanistan:

    This sounds like he did.

    RICHARD CLARKE: Actually, I've got about seven points, let me just go through them quickly. Um, the first point, I think the overall point is, there was no plan on Al Qaeda that was passed from the Clinton administration to the Bush administration.

    Second point is that the Clinton administration had a strategy in place, effectively dating from 1998. And there were a number of issues on the table since 1998. And they remained on the table when that administration went out of office -- issues like aiding the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan, changing our Pakistan policy -- uh, changing our policy toward Uzbekistan. And in January 2001, the incoming Bush administration was briefed on the existing strategy. They were also briefed on these series of issues that had not been decided on in a couple of years.

    And the third point is the Bush administration decided then, you know, in late January, to do two things. One, vigorously pursue the existing policy, including all of the lethal covert action findings, which we've now made public to some extent.

    And the point is, while this big review was going on, there were still in effect, the lethal findings were still in effect. The second thing the administration decided to do is to initiate a process to look at those issues which had been on the table for a couple of years and get them decided.

    So, point five, that process which was initiated in the first week in February, uh, decided in principle, uh in the spring to add to the existing Clinton strategy and to increase CIA resources, for example, for covert action, five-fold, to go after Al Qaeda

    Link

    Anne Applebaum (5.00 / 1) (#2)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Aug 21, 2007 at 04:41:51 PM EST
    seems to think otherwise.

    Parent
    Of course (5.00 / 2) (#3)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Aug 21, 2007 at 04:43:05 PM EST
    that was the famous coverup background briefing that Clarke was forced to do.

    Bad example from you Jim. Prove that Bush did not do it.

    Parent

    Prove that Bush did not do it. (1.00 / 1) (#9)
    by jimakaPPJ on Tue Aug 21, 2007 at 05:55:20 PM EST
    Prove what?? You made a claim, I provided a link. If you want to say that Clarke is lying, please provide proof.


    QUESTION: When was that presented to the president?

    CLARKE: Well, the president was briefed throughout this process.

    Let's face the music and dance. Heck, you can even lead.... You made a mistake.

    Parent

    Heh (5.00 / 1) (#27)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Aug 21, 2007 at 07:32:59 PM EST
    Have you never heard Clarke's testimony on it? Before the Congress?


    Parent
    BTD (1.00 / 1) (#30)
    by jimakaPPJ on Tue Aug 21, 2007 at 08:44:33 PM EST
    You can choose to believe Clarke before he was fired, or after he was fired and promoting his book.

    If he was spinning tales during the interview, how many tales did he spin in his testimony to the 9/11 Commission and the 60 Minutes interview?

    I believe this part of his story because it makes sense.

    Particularly this part.

    QUESTION: What is your response to the suggestion in the [Aug. 12, 2002] Time [magazine] article that the Bush administration was unwilling to take on board the suggestions made in the Clinton administration because of animus against the -- general animus against the foreign policy?

    CLARKE: I think if there was a general animus that clouded their vision, they might not have kept the same guy dealing with terrorism issue. This is the one issue where the National Security Council leadership decided continuity was important and kept the same guy around, the same team in place. That doesn't sound like animus against uh the previous team to me.

    JIM ANGLE: You're saying that the Bush administration did not stop anything that the Clinton administration was doing while it was making these decisions, and by the end of the summer had increased money for covert action five-fold. Is that correct?

    CLARKE: All of that's correct.

    That is a very straightforeward answer that follows a question that he could have slid a bit on. He didn't.

    Parent

    Clarke quit (5.00 / 4) (#31)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Aug 21, 2007 at 08:56:28 PM EST
    He was not fired.

    Lying again by Jim.

    Parent

    BTD - Your snark is expected. (1.00 / 1) (#33)
    by jimakaPPJ on Tue Aug 21, 2007 at 10:53:47 PM EST
    It is what you do when you find yourself over extended and in strange lands. You are not really responsible for your acts.

    I'm not an attorney, and I certainly am not as quick as you. Partly because of talent, partly because of desire. Partly because of age.

    But do not talk to me about such things. Because there you enter my world. The world I lived in for longer than you have been alive.

    He was fired.

    Sleep peacefully Big Tent. You have a ways yet to go.

    Parent

    HAhahhahaha (5.00 / 4) (#37)
    by squeaky on Tue Aug 21, 2007 at 11:09:28 PM EST
    Off your meds again ppj?
    He resigned in January 2003 as "anti-terrorism czar." after serving in the White House under three presidents (George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush). [1] [2] [3] In 2004, he published a book, Against All Enemies: Inside America's War on Terror--What Really Happened (ISBN 0743260244), which was highly critical of the Bush administration's handling of counterterrorism both before and after September 11.

    Rand Beers, the official who succeeded Clarke after he left the White House, resigned in protest just one month later--five days before the Iraqi war started--for precisely the same reason that Clarke quit.

    SourceWatch

    The only link that claims that Clarke was fired is PowerLie and not even in the main text but in a comment by someone just as wacked out as ppj.

    Parent

    Squeaky also has strawmen (1.00 / 1) (#39)
    by jimakaPPJ on Tue Aug 21, 2007 at 11:25:45 PM EST
    The issue really isn't whether he quit, or was fired. BTD made a sweeping statement and Clarke's interview proved him wrong.

    So your most excellent claim is of no value.

    Now that I have nailed that point down, I add that your claim that he quit proves your total lack of experience in such matters.

    What happened was quite simple. Clarke was finally faced with taking action, something he had not had to do in past adminitrations. It would not have politic to "fire" him, so he was shut off from more and more decisions. He became what the Japanese call the "Cat by the window." Finally he rose in high dungeon and said something like, "If you continue.... blah, blah... I can not support..."

    And the stunning words he heard went something like this. "Well, I am regretful that you are leaving us....be assured we have appreciated...your efforts have been.. let me know if I can... I am sure we will have a huge luncheon.. "

    There are firings and there are firings. Not all are done on the factory floor.

    Parent

    HAhahahahahAAHAHA (5.00 / 2) (#42)
    by squeaky on Tue Aug 21, 2007 at 11:54:48 PM EST
    Strawman has become your favorite word. A reflex at this point whenever you are shown to be making sh*t up.

    In case you have any braincells left to remember, I was responding to your smear of Clarke:

    He was fired. Sleep peacefully Big Tent. You have a ways yet to go.

    Hilarious

    Parent

    Aww, give the guy a break, Squeaky. (none / 0) (#44)
    by Edger on Wed Aug 22, 2007 at 06:58:42 AM EST
    He knows Clarke was fired. He has inside info. ;-)

    In his world Clarke's resignation letter was perfectly natural. Bowing and scraping and forelock tugging self abasing obsequiety out of sheer love for dear leader. Self-respect after all, in his world, is just a commodity to be traded away on a moments notice for a scratch behind the ears, or something else equally valuable. Pitiful.

    Parent

    To: The Twins (1.00 / 1) (#45)
    by jimakaPPJ on Wed Aug 22, 2007 at 07:27:01 AM EST
    Ah the twin fonts of knowledge, squeaky and edger.

    Both deny what the transcript says, and neither have the vaguest idea, according to them, of how people are "fired" when they get above certain levels.

    Parent

    You never felt a thing (5.00 / 2) (#47)
    by Edger on Wed Aug 22, 2007 at 07:34:11 AM EST
    during the operation, did you...

    Parent
    Not only a bad example (5.00 / 1) (#6)
    by Edger on Tue Aug 21, 2007 at 05:05:23 PM EST
    but a purposely misleading broken link. The only other place in Talkleft any of those quotes appear is in a comment by ppj, quoting from FoxNews here.

    This time he attempts to give the impression that his broken link is simply a mistake. But it is not a mistake. The quotes this time (above) are directly copied and pasted from the FoxNews spin, and are not quite the same quotes as in his prior comment.

    The disinigenuous trolling continues while he runs and hides from other conversations today on foreign policy.

    Parent

    Gasp! A link that doesn't work!! (1.00 / 1) (#10)
    by jimakaPPJ on Tue Aug 21, 2007 at 05:57:34 PM EST
    Try this one. It will satisfy. even the most dedicated complainers.

    Parent
    Here is another try (1.00 / 1) (#11)
    by jimakaPPJ on Tue Aug 21, 2007 at 06:00:32 PM EST
    Link

    It's true! It's true!!

    Parent

    but ppj defends faux news as not being journalists (5.00 / 2) (#13)
    by Sailor on Tue Aug 21, 2007 at 06:11:42 PM EST
    so of course he has links to actual journalists interviewing Clarke with those quotes ... right?

    Parent
    Sailor loves strawmen (1.00 / 1) (#19)
    by jimakaPPJ on Tue Aug 21, 2007 at 06:41:08 PM EST
    What does being or not being a journalist have anything to do with an interview that is a transcript?

    Do you claim that the transcript is wrong?

    Do you claim the interview never happened?

    It's giggle time...

    Parent

    You are a laff riot! (5.00 / 4) (#22)
    by tnthorpe on Tue Aug 21, 2007 at 07:05:28 PM EST
    Of course, when I posted from an article written by Ron Suskind, what did YOU have to say? Let's show the audience this exchange from the WMD Dodge thread.

    tnthorpe (1.00 / 2) (#82)
    by jimakaPPJ on Mon Aug 20, 2007 at 11:33:28 PM EST
    The aide said that guys like me were
    And since the writer didn't give us a name, how do we know this happened??

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