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Zogby Poll

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 07:56:46 AM EST
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I told anyone who would listen I do not trust Zogby. Today we see why:

Democrat Barack Obama pulled even with Hillary Clinton in Iowa, with John Edwards close behind, in a tightening three-way race one day before the first presidential nominating contest, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Wednesday. Obama gained two points overnight and Clinton lost two points to deadlock at 28 percent among Democrats in Iowa, with Edwards in a statistical dead heat behind them at 26 percent.

Is that so Mr. Zogby? Heck of a polling night January 1 ay? You would not be aligning yourself with the DMR poll now would you?

Obama, an Illinois senator, made small gains among independents and solidified his strength among younger voters . . .

Sure. Whatever you say Zogby. I do not trust the Zogby poll.

Update [2008-1-2 9:7:53 by Big Tent Democrat]: I am finding that pollsters are aligning their results to the DMR turnout model. A Strategic Vision poll that finished polling on December 30, the day before the DMR poll was released (thus no DMR bump), was released TODAY, 3 days later and shows Obama up and Clinton down. What are these pollsters doing? Does this just reflect what the DMR poll captured? In a word, NO. They juked their stats by changing their turnout model is what happened. What we have now is everyone adjusting to the DMR poll. Forget polls now. They are all just parroting the DMR poll. In essence it is the FINAL poll until the caucus.

< My Conversation With Hillary Clinton's Mother | Did Obama Build It? Will The Non-Dems Come? Who Decides Iowa >

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    Zogby Poll | 19 comments (19 topical)

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    Remember (none / 0) (#1)
    by andgarden on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 08:05:26 AM EST
    this?

    Zogby is the biggest regurgitator of conventional wisdom in polling land that I know of.

    No polls can be trustede now (none / 0) (#2)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 08:09:13 AM EST
    They are all just adjusting their turnout models to make them closer to DMR.

    Polls shut down.

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    You might be right (none / 0) (#3)
    by andgarden on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 08:12:08 AM EST
    The Insider Advantage poll from earlier in the week still feels most right to me.

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    I do not know who is right (none / 0) (#4)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 08:14:53 AM EST
    I do know that in essence these latest polls are parroting a different poll's turnout assumptions.

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    We'll see (none / 0) (#5)
    by andgarden on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 08:22:59 AM EST
    The question is whether Republicans and Republican leaning Is are so disinterested in the Mitt/Huckabee race and hate Hillary so much that they'll go caucus for Obama.

    In that circumstance, I think a good Obama night would also indicate a good Huckabee night.

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    Well actusally I see now (none / 0) (#6)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 08:29:37 AM EST
    that these pollsters are parroting the DMR turnout assumptions.

    Whether the DMR poll is right is a different question.

    That these pollsters are just folowing seems indisputable.

    In essence these are NOT new polls.

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    Right (none / 0) (#7)
    by andgarden on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 08:30:44 AM EST


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    Predictions (none / 0) (#8)
    by Jlvngstn on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 08:44:48 AM EST
    Are you going to have an open posting for predictions of the Iowa race results?  Of course there would be no gambling, just bragging rights..

    Sure (none / 0) (#9)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 08:55:35 AM EST
    But tomorrow morning

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    Thank you. (none / 0) (#10)
    by Jlvngstn on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 09:11:49 AM EST


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    Question (none / 0) (#11)
    by Any D Over Any R on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 09:54:08 AM EST
    Big Tent:

    Is there evidence the other polling firms are changing their turnout models to align with the DMR poll?

    The movement in Zogby and other recent polls would look the same if:

    -1- there is real movement toward Obama that is being captured, and

    -2- the turnout models are being changed.

    You are making the case, quite strongly, that what we are seeing is #2 rather than #1. Do the internals of the newest polls indicate that the turnout models have changed since the DMR was released, or is it just a hunch/guess/expectation?

    Thanks

    Good question (none / 0) (#12)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 09:58:37 AM EST
    None of these polls will release that information. MORE reason to believe they are in fact doing that.

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    Good Question (none / 0) (#13)
    by Any D Over Any R on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 10:06:21 AM EST
    So, to be clear, there isn't actually any evidence that the turnout models have been changed?

    No data on internals as an indication of a change in methodology is a pretty thin reed. Have Zogby and Strategic Vision been releasing all such internals and just stopped doing so since the DMR was published?

    Thanks

    I am offering my opinion (none / 0) (#14)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 10:19:12 AM EST
    on it.

    A study of John Zogby's career is instructive on this.

    SV's release of the poll 3 days after is suspicious to me.

    I beieve it is cooked. My opinion.

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    Do you think these pollsters were reliable (none / 0) (#16)
    by illissius on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 12:10:12 PM EST
    before the DMR? It's striking how much of the recent polling data from Iowa is from the bottom half of the respectedness order from Pollster.com's survey -- SV, ARG, and Zogby, plus Insider Advantage which got a whole article about their questionable practices. CNN wasn't included, so I'm not sure where they'd fall.

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    All polls stink (5.00 / 1) (#19)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 05:21:39 PM EST


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    re Strategic Vision (none / 0) (#17)
    by along on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 01:38:04 PM EST
    Pollster.com reported their latest poll yesterday, Jan. 1. But even that doesn't rule out the possibility that they reweighted their numbers beforehand.

    But in December, Strategic Vision has consistently shown Obama up. It may be a house effect. Or they may have been using a DMR-like model all along. Or both.

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    I agree (none / 0) (#15)
    by TheRealFrank on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 11:29:45 AM EST
    The general trend in the polls before the DMR poll was that Clinton was back to an upward trend, Edwards was trending upward, and Obama seemed to have peaked and was now trending downward.

    Out comes the DMR poll, and all of a sudden polls are converging towards the DMR results. That's more than a little weird, since there were no major campaign-related incidents that would have turned things around.

    Unless, of course, the DMR poll itself generated enough headlines to create a bandwagon effect, but i don't know how it was reported in the local Iowa media.

    Nothing Weird (none / 0) (#18)
    by Any D Over Any R on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 01:51:43 PM EST
    There doesn't have to be anything "weird" about these movements. They are relatively small shifts in a close race. The "event" that may be driving changes at this point is the end of the Iowa campaign; in the last few days of the campaign all those undecideds and soft supporters do ultimately have to make a choice. If they break a little disproportionately toward one candidate (not by a lot, just a little), you will easily see the types of movements reported.

    The alternative, of course, is that there is no actual movement, and the numbers are being manipulated. This is the point with which Big Tent started the thread. I posed my original question because of the declarative statements that manipulation of data was occurring, in the absence of any evidence.

    In the post and update, Big Tent made the following declarative statements:

    "I am finding that pollsters are aligning their results to the DMR turnout model."

    "They juked their stats by changing their turnout model is what happened."

    "What we have now is everyone adjusting to the DMR poll. Forget polls now. They are all just parroting the DMR poll."

    From the comments, though, it is clear there is no evidence to support these statements (at this point, anyway). That the models are being manipulated is Big Tent's hunch or opinion. S/he certainly has every right to hold and express this opinion, but it is a long way from "I am finding" and "They juked their stats."

    There are perfectly plausible explanations for these types of minor poll movements without manipulation. I don't think multiple organizations ought to be accused/dismissed as unprofessional (and maybe unethical) without some actual evidence that they are engaged in manipulation.


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    Zogby Poll | 19 comments (19 topical)

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