Did Obama Build It? Will The Non-Dems Come? Who Decides Iowa
If the gold standard Des Moines Register poll is right, then a Barack Obama Field of Dreams depends on non-Democrats deciding who should win the Iowa Democratic caucus.
That is a fact, no matter how much Obama supporters do not like to hear it. The rules allow for this so that is that.
Clinton leads among registered Democrats who are likely caucus goers by 6 points in the DMR poll, 33-27. And if the turnout demographic is the same as in 2004, Clinton wins by 31-29. (This explains the discrepancy between the DMR poll and other polls, who are now scramblng to align themselves with the DMR turnout model.)
So it comes down to that - will the non-Dems come to decide the Iowa Democratic caucus. That is the question for tomorrow night. If they do, Obama wins. If they do not, he does not. The Ultimate Test for the Kumbaya Schtick.
I leave you with Jeralyn until tomorrow.
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