How New Hampshire Voted

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 10:36:51 PM EST
Tags: New Hampshire 08 (all tags)

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Update: Norah O'Donnell on MSNBC (12:45 am ET): Hillary won because of women and people over 40 and because Obama didn't get the amount of youth vote he expected. Obama fell in the "empathy" category and Hillary doubled her numbers there. Women preferred Hillary to Obama by double-digit numbers.

Update: Washington Post:

Clinton also picked up 28 percent of voters younger than 30, after getting only 11 percent of young caucusgoers in Iowa. In another big switch, Clinton got 29 percent of voters prioritizing "change," up 10 percentage points from Iowa.

More...

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The number that sticks out to me, from Norah O'Donnell at MSNBC : Of the Democratic voters who thought experience was more important than change, 71% thought Hillary was the most experienced to 5% for Obama.

Chris Matthews says he'll never underestimate Hillary Clinton again.

Update: Tomorrow morning, McCain, Hillary and Obama will all be on the Today show. Oh, to be a fly on the green room wall.

Chris Matthews: 84% of Democrats who didn't like Obama voted for Hillary (vs. Edwards or Richardson.) The age cut-off for Obama's supporters appears to be 40. Over 40 and they went to Hillary. The college educated went more for Obama.

Andrea Mitchell: Hillary did better with the young in N.H. than she did in Iowa.

Why did fewer women and young people go for Hillary in Iowa? My thought: The difference is Iowa's high evangelical population.

More Mitchell: She says the Clinton people think John McCain will be the ultimate Republican nominee.

< Hillary Clinton's Speech | Why The NH Result Is Good For Dem Values >

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How New Hampshire Voted | 29 comments (29 topical)

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Excuse me J. (none / 0) (#1)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 10:38:27 PM EST

the number that should stick out to you is 47% women for Hillary.

That is the number tonight.

Women were the larger bloc (none / 0) (#2)
by BlueLakeMichigan on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 10:45:44 PM EST

And they voted for Hillary. The college towns and cities didn't break the way Obama would've wanted. Manchester was a complete loss.

Interesting, Jeralyn, (none / 0) (#3)
by MarkL on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 10:45:45 PM EST

As i've said in a few comments, I thought Hillary argued very well in the stupid "change" part of Saturday's debate. If she actually won that argument, in the minds of voters, then Obama is finished.

Chris (none / 0) (#4)
by RalphB on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 10:45:57 PM EST

Mathews should IRON HER SHIRT! Jeez I hope he gets lost. What a loser.

The Joe Scarborough, Eugene Robinson, etc. panel (none / 0) (#5)
by andgarden on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 10:47:44 PM EST

raised and dismissed the Wilder effect.

They agree with BTD: the media savaged HIllary and women came to her defense.

don't count chris matthews (none / 0) (#6)
by cpinva on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 10:51:44 PM EST

out, he'll continue his unabashedly sexist rants against sen. clinton, until they pry the beer mug and phallic symbols from his cold, dead hands.

happy as i am for sen. clinton, NH is about as representative of the rest of the country as iowa, possibly less so. as such, i wouldn't read all that much into it, regardless of what the self-appointed mavens of the MSM natter on about.

the real test comes with SC, and super tuesday.

: We won't really know until (none / 0) (#7)
by DA in LA on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 10:53:14 PM EST

big cities get involved.

That's why I'm so glad about tonight's results (none / 0) (#8)
by Jeralyn on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 10:55:31 PM EST

Because it means the rest of us still have a voice on Super Duper Tuesday. Two states should not decide the presidential nominee.

Well, that and (none / 0) (#9)
by DA in LA on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 10:57:11 PM EST

because you support Hillary.


I'd be happy with Edwards too (none / 0) (#11)
by Jeralyn on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 11:02:50 PM EST

I've never endorsed anyone. I've said Hillary and Edwards are my favorites.


I know (none / 0) (#13)
by DA in LA on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 11:03:38 PM EST

but your posts are little more telling than maybe you understand.


When I convince J to endorse Obama (none / 0) (#16)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 11:18:30 PM EST

with me boy are you going to be shocked.


: Shocked is an understatement. (none / 0) (#18)
by DA in LA on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 11:21:19 PM EST

: Just spin out the suspense will you? (none / 0) (#26)
by oculus on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 01:38:20 AM EST

Aren't you neutral at present? Or back to being a tepid Obama supporter?

I won't, not in Texas (none / 0) (#10)
by Jgarza on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 10:59:40 PM EST

She has a much better message tonight. I like her more now.

Bernstein still: 52% of democrats voted against Hillary Clinton. If you slap him I won't tell.


That is a problem. (none / 0) (#12)
by DA in LA on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 11:03:02 PM EST

It is what I have been saying all along. Many Dems will not vote for Hillary.


Well if wants to make that case (none / 0) (#17)
by Jgarza on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 11:19:50 PM EST

and has evidence that is fine. It is demeaning to both Barack Obama and John Edwards, to say if someone votes for them, they are voting against her and of course naturally it insults her.


: It is the truth (none / 0) (#24)
by BlueLakeMichigan on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 01:15:08 AM EST

The demeaning truth. A prominent reason to vote FOR one person often is to vote AGAINST someone else. Why else are negative ads so effective in cutting leads and helping candidates come back in elections?

That's why I'm so glad about tonight's results (none / 0) (#14)
by Angel on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 11:04:04 PM EST

I am so happy HRC won tonight. She is by far the best candidate in the race. I hope she continues to win with these same margins. I like Obama but he is a second rate JFK/MLK. He has copied from their speaches and is NOT an origianal. Hillary, when she speaks from the heart, is a true original - a woman who is seeking the highest office in the US, thus the world. My husband supports her. And a very prominent African-American (married to a white woman) who was at dinner at my home last night supports her. I wish we as a society could get past all the mysoginyst and racist ills of our society. And I wish we could get rid of the shrill and imcompetent media who daily rail against the true mainstraim of our society. Hillary Clinton, if given the chance, could be one of the best presidents ever.

Well, everybody copies (none / 0) (#19)
by MarkL on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 11:31:01 PM EST

The problem I have with Obama is that he hasn't done enough in the Senate.


same here (none / 0) (#20)
by Jeralyn on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 11:36:01 PM EST

he hasn't done enough period.


: my thought exactly. (none / 0) (#22)
by cpinva on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 12:39:13 AM EST

Jeralyn, BTD (none / 0) (#15)
by Jgarza on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 11:08:31 PM EST

So i was depressed for like 15 minutes. Then i thought of all the ways it could go down from here, and how many people get to vote. NO DAMN POLLS for a few days, no CW, no inevitable, no stupid MO, NO John Kerry all over again. I read a lot of your stuff and I'm really excited now.

Thanks you guys picked up my spirits.

Any Given Tuesday. (none / 0) (#21)
by sarcastic unnamed one on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 11:36:34 PM EST

: is al pacino running too? lol (none / 0) (#23)
by cpinva on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 12:40:00 AM EST

I wonder (none / 0) (#25)
by BlueLakeMichigan on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 01:17:17 AM EST

How many here were saying they were happy that there were no coronations when the "inevitable" candidate Hillary Clinton lost in Iowa?

What was that? I couldn't hear you.

Still couldn't hear you.

flip side (none / 0) (#27)
by Jgarza on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 02:17:36 AM EST

Of course the flip side of that is that people said they would vote for him in a poll, but won't because he is black. When in a voting both no one is there to see like in a caucus. SO maybe racism won it for Hillary. Since we are sure Sexism won Iowa for Obams.

actually, i alluded to (none / 0) (#28)
by cpinva on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 06:56:10 AM EST

this very issue, in a post on an earlier thread. i like sen. obama; he's intelligent, well spoken, well read, well educated, energetic, etc. i think, with more seasoning, he might possibly make a successful run for the presidency.

i don't think that time is now. for me, the issue is completely one of his lack of experience. however, being realistic, while there may be some population centers ready to elect a black man to the white house, the country as a whole is not, in my opinion.

as you noted, people say in polls what they think they should; in the privacy of the voting booth, they tend to vote their prejudices.

on the positive side, his campaign has been taken deadly seriously. i'm not sure this would have been the case even 10 years ago.


: sexism (none / 0) (#29)
by Judith on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 10:40:56 AM EST

did not win Obama Iowa. The nature of the caucus itself and all the buzz did.
on another note, I dont want to believe Obama's heritage would keep him from the WH - just his experience...IF there is a more experiencesd Dem. for the job running too.
But him over and GOP stooge.