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New Hampshire: Polls And Expectations

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 07:54:39 AM EST
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Here are the latest polls:

Suffolk:

Obama 39 (35)
Clinton 34 (34)
Edwards 15 (15)

ARG:

Obama 40 (39)
Clinton 31 (28)
Edwards 17 (22)

Zogby:

Obama 42 (39)
Clinton 29 (29)
Edwards 17 (19)

Rassmussen:

Obama 37 (38)
Clinton 30 (28)
Edwards 19 (18)

Clinton is closing in all but the Zogby poll. But the margin seems too large. So the spin is critical here. If Clinton can come within say 5, she has a fair chance of arguing she did decently in the face of Iowa Mo. Edwards is done it seems. Obama is the winner if he wins, but how big a win is subject to spin.

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    New Hampshire: Polls And Expectations | 12 comments (12 topical)

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    Disappointed (none / 0) (#1)
    by Angel on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 07:58:33 AM EST
    I'm disappointed that the media will declare the victor with only two states having voted/caucused.  But mark my words.  If it is Obama, the media and the republican slime machine will go into overdrive to tear him down as quickly as they built him up.

    EJ Dionne sums up the Obama Clinton race (none / 0) (#2)
    by Molly Bloom on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 08:28:51 AM EST
    In 1960, the articulate Adlai Stevenson compared his own oratory unfavorably with John F. Kennedy's. "Do you remember," Stevenson said, "that in classical times when Cicero had finished speaking, the people said, 'How well he spoke,' but when Demosthenes had finished speaking, the people said, 'Let us march.' " At this hour, Obama is the Democrats' Demosthenes.

    and

    Here again, the echoes of the past are eerie. It was Hubert Humphrey, on the aging side of the generational divide in 1968, who declared: "Some people talk about change, others cause it." Hubert Humphrey was a great man. He did not become president.

    you can read it here

    The Suffolk poll (none / 0) (#3)
    by commissar on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 08:54:18 AM EST
    How is Clinton closing in the Suffolk poll?

    Good point (5.00 / 1) (#4)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 09:01:01 AM EST
    she is down 5 in the Suffolk poll but was down 1 the day before.

    Parent
    I'm interested to see if he can (none / 0) (#5)
    by Jgarza on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 09:37:08 AM EST
    out perform polls as in Iowa, It will be a testament to his turnout operation if he does.  I personally would really like to see that proved true because they implications for dems are huge.

    This fast track (none / 0) (#6)
    by Maryb2004 on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 10:33:52 AM EST
    makes it hard to even see how a candidate is trending.  I'm assuming none of these polls take into account the press coverage from late afternoon yesterday because they were completed by yesterday morning?  So we don't know if she drops because of the press coverage of her emotion or she gains some votes in backlash against the press coverage.

    I don't think she'll finish within 5 but if she does she should count that as a big victory.  Coming so soon after Iowa with no time for any bounce to die down.

    Edwards (none / 0) (#7)
    by andreww on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 10:49:23 AM EST
    My guess is that the Edwards numbers appear higher than they actually are.  I think a number of people leaning Edwards will make last minute decisions to support Obama.  I also expect that some of his supporters just might not turn out - but maybe I just don't understand NH politics.
    Clinton closing in? (none / 0) (#8)
    by Ramo on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 10:57:53 AM EST
    Sufolk and Zogby show Obama up by a bit; Rasmussen and ARG down by a bit.  If you want to weigh the polls equally, Obama is up 0.75%, i.e. the situation is stabilizing.

    Excuse me... (none / 0) (#9)
    by Ramo on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 11:09:06 AM EST
    I mean 0.5%.

    Parent
    BREAKING: Kos and Jerome a Paris (none / 0) (#10)
    by oculus on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 02:04:39 PM EST
    opine the Dem. race won't end in NH.  

    Fools the both of them (none / 0) (#11)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 02:42:22 PM EST
    and it was Jerome Armstrong anyway.

    Parent
    Correction (read the link!): Jerome Armstrong. (none / 0) (#12)
    by oculus on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 02:45:27 PM EST


    Parent
    New Hampshire: Polls And Expectations | 12 comments (12 topical)

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