home

The Polls - 10/12

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 08:35:02 AM EST
Tags: (all tags)
Share This: Digg! StumbleUpon del.icio.us reddit reddit

Here's a funny line from a NYTimes story on the election - "The main thing [McCain] needs to do,” said Vin Weber, a former Republican congressman from Minnesota, “is focus on a single message . . . over the next 30 days[.]" The election of course is in 23 days. And the polling with 23 days to go says the Presidential contest is over.

DKos/R2000 has Obama up 13, 53-40. Gallup has Obama up 9, 51-42. Hotline has Obama up 10. Newsweek has Obama up 11, 52-41. Ras has Obama up 6. And so on. It's over.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

< Mandates And A New Hundred Days | Sunday Morning Open Thread >

  • The Online Magazine with Liberal coverage of crime-related political and injustice news

  • Contribute To TalkLeft


    • Display: Sort:
    The Polls - 10/12 | 9 comments (9 topical)

    Readers Must Login or Create an Account to Comment

    But that's the old Republican line (none / 0) (#1)
    by msobel on Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 10:00:00 AM EST
    special voting days for African Americans November  5th.

    That's worse than (none / 0) (#2)
    by oculus on Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 10:09:21 AM EST
    Mark Penn not knowing California is winner-take-all in the primary.  

    I think you misspoke: (none / 0) (#10)
    by Don in Seattle on Mon Oct 13, 2008 at 07:46:38 AM EST
    California was not winner-take-all in the primary. No state was winner-take-all in the primary.  

    Parent
    PPP: O + 10 in Colorado (none / 0) (#3)
    by magster on Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 10:35:34 AM EST
    Mail in voting just started here this last week.

    "It's over" (none / 0) (#4)
    by jpete on Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 10:48:12 AM EST
    strikes fear in my heart.  The Great Mischiefmaker gets called down here by just such expressions.

    McCain has a responsibility (none / 0) (#5)
    by white n az on Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 11:03:28 AM EST
    to the down ticket elections and that evidently guides everything that he is doing.

    It makes no sense for McCain to be be campaigning in Pennsylvania and Iowa because those are states where he has no chance except for down ticket races. Just witness the furor created when they abandoned Michigan.

    And that's registered voters (none / 0) (#7)
    by Cream City on Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 06:09:49 PM EST
    See its two takes on likely voters -- a far more significant measure now.  Gallup calculates LVs based on past models and a projected model -- both showing a narrower margin than the RV poll.

    In the first national election (ANYWHERE outside (none / 0) (#8)
    by Don in Seattle on Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 08:13:58 PM EST
    Africa, as far as I know) with a candidate of African descent, no one can have a solid idea of which voters are "likely" this time. It's reasonable to think that the electorate that actually turns out this year will be atypical. I think we can expect higher than usual turnout among Blacks. How much higher? Who knows?

    This weekend's news stories show Republican voters confused, concerned and depressed -- not what I would guess would be the ideal combination for their achieving their usual high turnout. But I could be wrong. Again, who knows?

    As basically optimistic as I am, and as much as I'd love to win an electoral college landslide, I do not expect Obama's final margin will be 10%, or even 7%. The almost-persuaded voters at the penumbra of Obama's popularity are extremely shaky ground -- I think most of them prefer to think of themselves as undecided, and many will go to the polls unsure themselves how they will vote. Since 1968, it has been very hard for any Democrat to actually poll 50% of the vote.

    I will go ahead and predict a 53-47 or 52-48 final margin. In the last week, the media will be full of stories about McCain's "surprise comeback," which will no doubt give me some nervous moments, and you the opportunity to get in a few last-minute I-told-you-so's. That's OK. By inauguration day, most of us will have forgotten about it.

    Parent

    I predict Obama will win Virginia (none / 0) (#9)
    by coigue on Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 10:42:54 PM EST
    and NH, and lose Colorado. He may win Nevada too.

    Parent
    The Polls - 10/12 | 9 comments (9 topical)

    Readers Must Login or Create an Account to Comment