Demography In Virginia

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 11:39:39 AM EST
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SUSA's Virginia poll gives us a perfect opportunity to do the type of demographic analysis we used to good effect during the primaries.

SUSA has Obama winning Virginia by 9 points. In the poll, Obama leads among A-As (18% of the electorate) by 86-13 and trails among whites (74% of the electorate) 42-53. The other 8% of the electorate is divided among Latinos (4% of the electorate) and Other (4%.) Compare this potential result with the 2004 race in Virginia -- Kerry won A-As by 87-12 and they were 21% of the Virginia electorate. SUSA predicts Obama will do worse with A-As than Kerry did and turn out in lesser numbers. Not happening. As in the primaries, SUSA simply does not poll A-As well. Obama will win 95% of the A-A vote in Virginia and it may reach 25% of the vote. Thus, even if SUSA is overreporting Obama's white support, and that seems unlikely as it never did so during the primaries, Obama seems a shoo-in in Virginia. More . . .

Can McCain get 65% of the white vote in Virginia? That's what it will take for him to win Virginia. George W. Bush won 68% of the white vote (and 12% of the A-A vote) in Virginia in 2004 and won by 8. In the 2006 VA Senate race, when only 16% of the electorate was A-A, Jim Webb had to win 42% of the white vote (and just 38% of white men) to squeak by Allen.

Let's split the difference between Bush's 2004 68% and George Allen's 2006 58%. Call it 63% of the white vote for McCain in Virginia. Let's assume a 2004 turnout in Virginia - with no increased A-A voters (a 21% A-A share of the electorate) but let's adjust McCain to 5% of African American votes. That gets McCain 46% of the vote. To win then, he needs half of the Latino and Asian vote in Virginia to get to 50. Not very likely.

Thus, giving McCain very favorable assumptions with white voters and A-A turnout, he still can't win in Virginia.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

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Demography In Virginia | 31 comments (31 topical)

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If you'd asked me a year ago (5.00 / 0) (#1)
by andgarden on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 11:46:56 AM EST

whether the Democratic nominee would have a 6-9 point lead in Virginia across several different polls a week before election day, I'd have laughed.

And yet. . .

Of reference: SUSA VA 10/30/2004.

Also, (none / 0) (#2)
by andgarden on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 11:49:40 AM EST

their final Virginia poll in 2006 And in 2005.


All their polls overstated white votes (none / 0) (#3)
by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 11:51:45 AM EST

for Dems and A-A votes for the GOP.

I use them for turnout demos and they were pretty accurate there.


Indeed (5.00 / 1) (#5)
by andgarden on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 11:54:16 AM EST

The poll that gives me pause is their last one from '06. They overstated Webb's lead.


Because they overstated white support for him (5.00 / 1) (#6)
by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 11:55:25 AM EST

I adjusted it down for Obama here.

I also adjusted up the A-A numbers for Obama.


I would warn about treating (none / 0) (#7)
by andgarden on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 11:59:30 AM EST

the exit polls as gospel. Tom Jensen at PPP found pretty convincing evidence that the exit poll for NC in 2004 way overstated black turnout.


See (none / 0) (#8)
by andgarden on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 12:00:07 PM EST

here.


Cept (5.00 / 0) (#9)
by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 12:02:16 PM EST

SUSA was wrong. A-A turnout was huge in the NC primary.


NC should have bigger turnout (none / 0) (#11)
by andgarden on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 12:03:37 PM EST

than it's ever had for any election. Probably VA too.

Question is, will turnout rise evenly. Tom Schaller says that it tends to across the south, which is why he says to forget Georgia.


: Ed Kilgore (none / 0) (#15)
by andgarden on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 12:25:43 PM EST

backs up Schaller on that point.
Just anecdotes now. . .

21% A-A vote in 2004 (none / 0) (#4)
by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 11:54:14 AM EST

16% A-A vote in 2006.

They are predicting 18% this year but they have underpredicted black turnout this year.


Asians? (none / 0) (#16)
by BrassTacks on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 12:32:09 PM EST

Northern Virginia is 16% Asian. Where are they in the stats and in the voting? I am assuming that most of them are voting for Obama. Is that correct?


Asians are in "other" (none / 0) (#21)
by andgarden on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 12:42:42 PM EST

which Obama is winning 64/16 (with a high MOE).


Great! thanks! (none / 0) (#23)
by BrassTacks on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 12:44:49 PM EST

Asians really care about education, perhaps that's why Obama does so well with them. Many in NOVA have money, but they want to continue to send their kids to public schools.


: "They"? (5.00 / 0) (#26)
by MKS on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 02:16:31 PM EST

Asian voting patterns (none / 0) (#28)
by bigbay on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 03:42:39 PM EST

are usually pretty disparate, with so many cultures involved, hence the lack of polling on 'them'. You know what killed even more conservative blocks, towards Mc Cain ? The 'g-k' rant from 2000 got around really fast. I think that is a big factor in his losing the entire Asian vote. An unreported story in this election, and it might cost him the White House.


Politico is talking about betting odds... (5.00 / 0) (#25)
by FoxholeAtheist on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 01:14:31 PM EST

LINK: Bettors give McCain bid long odds.

I was wondering whether any blogs were writing about the subject of betting. I figured, well if it's anybody, it's Politico. This is the first time I've seen any blog seriously address political betting. Are there any precedents for this?

I was struck by this line, in particular:

Ladbrokes spokesman Seth Woods warned against overvaluing the predictive value of betting lines, recalling that in 2004, "Bush was the favorite for the vast majority of the campaign until 24 hours before Election Day, when Kerry became a marginal favorite. Kerry was as short as 1-3 on the day of the election."

This was also interesting, and was reported elsewhere:

An InTrade investigation found that one trader made repeated countercyclical buys of McCain futures large enough to raise their price -- thus purchasing the options for considerably more than the same product would have cost on another market.

Does anybody know what all of this means?

: pump and dump (none / 0) (#29)
by bigbay on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 03:43:56 PM EST

it's done on stocks as well

WTF? (none / 0) (#10)
by gyrfalcon on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 12:02:42 PM EST

"SUSA predicts Obama will do worse with A-As than Kerry did and turn out in lesser numbers."

What possible rationale could they have for that? That seems completely whacko.

My guess: (none / 0) (#12)
by andgarden on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 12:04:19 PM EST

Some racist whites think it's funny to "press three for black."


: Yep (none / 0) (#13)
by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 12:10:59 PM EST

: You really think (none / 0) (#20)
by BrassTacks on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 12:42:35 PM EST

Those few folks in southside and SW Virginia are answering phone surveys? Not a chance. Those folks wouldn't tell anyone anything. Ditto most older republicans. They don't trust anyone and they hate pollsters. They don't even answer their phone if it rings when they aren't expecting it to ring. I am not kidding. They are the most paranoid people on earth. Or maybe it's just the old republicans I know in Virginia. But they would never, ever, answer a poll of any kind. Well, maybe it meant free food at the Piggly Wiggly. <JK>

WTF indeed (none / 0) (#17)
by BrassTacks on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 12:32:54 PM EST

For me, that negates this poll. It's absurd.


I agree (none / 0) (#19)
by cal1942 on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 12:41:24 PM EST

Absolutely ridiculous.


Yes, completely wacko (none / 0) (#22)
by BrassTacks on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 12:43:27 PM EST

It must be a typo, written backwards.


Any impact of tossing out military ballots (none / 0) (#14)
by Cream City on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 12:23:55 PM EST

by the thousands in Virginia? Some 3500 tossed out last week, per a report, on some technicality or other. Military are a sizeable voting bloc in that state.

Don't know if there was some presumption as to whom those military voters had picked. I can't imagine it's that easy to call, with a former POW but with so many AAs in the military.

Is that you , Joe Lieberman? (5.00 / 0) (#27)
by MKS on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 02:17:54 PM EST

"per a report".....I haven't heard that....Care to provide a link?


Yes, the military is huge in Hampton Roads, (none / 0) (#18)
by BrassTacks on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 12:39:33 PM EST

Where the AA population is also quite large. There is a huge Navy presence in Norfolk and they are fired up to elect one of their own. Parts of NOVA have large retired military populations. But they are also democratic areas.

I would also like to know where the Asians stand because they are 16% in NOVA. Hispanics are about 15% there, but they vote in fewer numbers than Asians. Asians always seem to be under the radar screen in these polls but they are a sizable voting block in many areas. Unlike Hampton Roads which is pretty much all Black and White, NOVA is very mixed.

I am expecting Obama to win VA, but by a smaller percentage than this poll shows. Older White people in Virginia ALWAYS turn out, and they are all over the state, from Nova, right through Tidewater/Hampton Roads/southside. The republicans have their last minute, 72 hour blitz, and GOTV, and the military is fired up for McCain. Obama will win Virginia, but it won't be by 7%.


: Thanks -- I have an in-law (none / 0) (#24)
by Cream City on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 01:09:10 PM EST

in McLean, from her family nearby, and they are solid military, too -- from father to sisters, brothers, cousins, etc. (a couple of them were in the Pentagon on 9/11, a difficult day for her and many in McLean). They're not AA, but I recently met many relatives who came here for an AA friend, and many of them were in or working for military, too. And some were pretty conservative, as much as my in-law's family, so it may not be as predictable by identity politics as other areas.

Hmmmm (none / 0) (#30)
by DancingOpossum on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 09:04:42 AM EST

Going out on a limb here but I STILL say Obama doesn't win VA. I make no such claims on other states (well, except that he'll win my state, Maryland, by a landslide) or even on the GE itself (I predict he will win), but not Virginia. Never.

And yes... (none / 0) (#31)
by DancingOpossum on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 09:06:01 AM EST

I'd be willing to bet on it. I liked FoxholeAtheist's post about betting; my bf and two close friends are avid betters, the type who will bet you how long it takes an ant to cross the kitchen floor. I rarely indulge but love to talk betting.