home

Political Demography: Ohio

The SUSA Ohio poll, which has Obama up 4, 49-45, gives us another chance to do a demographic analysis.

SUSA has Obama winning African Americans (projected to be 11% of the electorate, up 1% from 2004) by 84-12. As usual, SUSA seems to understate Obama's A-A support. At worst, Obama will win 90% of the A-A vote. (Yes, I know Bush is said to have won 16% of the A-A vote in 2004, that is meaningless imo.) More . . .

Among whites (projected to be 86% of the Ohio electorate by SUSA, same as in 2004), Obama wins 44% according to SUSA to McCain's 50. In 2004, Kerry won 44% of the white vote. In the 2008 Ohio Dem primary, Obama won 34% of the white vote. I think McCain's best case scenario is he wins 55% of the white vote in Ohio. So what's the result if that happens? The white vote would get McCain to 47.3% of the vote. 10% of the A-A vote gets him 1.1% for 48.4% Latinos, Asians and other make up the other 5% of the electorate. McCain needs 32% of that total. In 2004, Kerry beat Bush by 2-1 among Latinos in Ohio. If that projects to the final 5% here, we are looking at a virtual tie.

In my view, this is McCain's BEST possible result. But it is not the likely result. I expect A-A turnout to be higher than SUSA projects and I suspect Obama will do better with Latinos and Asians in Ohio than Kerry did. I also expect Obama to do better among whites than Kerry did. Why? Because Obama will do much better with white women than Kerry did. Kerry lost white women by 10 to Bush. Obama will do no worse than split white women with McCain.

In short, I expect Ohio to be in Obama's column. and by a 4-5 point margin.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

< The Polls - 10/28 | Poll Pron:* Obama By 16 >
  • The Online Magazine with Liberal coverage of crime-related political and injustice news

  • Contribute To TalkLeft


  • Display: Sort:
    I think we're going to be (5.00 / 3) (#1)
    by andgarden on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 09:23:57 AM EST
    staying up late for Ohio again. I'm glad it isn't necessary this year.

    Yeah (none / 0) (#2)
    by zvs888 on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 09:25:30 AM EST
    Best case scenario is Indiana goes purple and Virginia blue early, so we know it's a lock.

    Parent
    For the record (5.00 / 4) (#4)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 09:31:11 AM EST
    Ohio is the state where NOT picking Clinton as his running mate most hurt Obama. I think it would not be close in Ohio if Obama had picked Clinton.

    Florida I think is a close second as far (5.00 / 2) (#8)
    by CaptainAmerica08 on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 10:49:24 AM EST
    as the Clinton effect. But it should also be pointed out that Ohio and Florida were obviously not in O's plans and they evidently thought these two states were long shots at best. Florida and Ohio's surge for Obama I believe are due exclusively to the economic recession. I hope you're right about the 4-5 pt win for Obama in Ohio BTD. I'm still calling it a 1 to 2 pt race in that state either way.

    Parent
    Can you imagine if Obama had said publicly (5.00 / 1) (#9)
    by andgarden on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 10:52:13 AM EST
    last winter that he thought Ohio and Florida were long shots?

    Parent
    Yeah but I think the whole Democratic Party (5.00 / 1) (#10)
    by CaptainAmerica08 on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 11:01:11 AM EST
    essentially said exactly that about Florida when they scr*wed the state during the primaries. It's my belief they never would have done that if they thought Florida would seriously be in play come Nov. But maybe I'm just being crazy again.

    Parent
    We are supposed to be beyond the (5.00 / 2) (#11)
    by oculus on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 11:02:42 AM EST
    primary battles now!  

    Parent
    It's okay, (none / 0) (#15)
    by Amiss on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 02:18:20 PM EST
    as a Democratic Floridian, we are used to being scr**ed when it comes to elections. My area of Florida is the only area of Florida that has been consistently Democratic, we even have a Democratis US Representative, which is rare here in the Sunshine State.


    Parent
    *Democratic (none / 0) (#16)
    by Amiss on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 02:18:50 PM EST
    Indeed (5.00 / 0) (#12)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 11:08:30 AM EST
    But Palin really hurt McCain in Florida.

    The one state she did.

    Parent

    OH seems to be ground zero (5.00 / 0) (#13)
    by Demi Moaned on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 11:30:15 AM EST
    ... for GOP voter suppression efforts. So far, the Supreme Court has stopped any action on the 200,000 contested voters. But there are noises that the DOJ is prepared to intervene.

    And will we have underfunded polling places in urban areas. All this stuff could be worth a few percentage points for McCain.

    great analysis (none / 0) (#3)
    by Jlvngstn on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 09:26:05 AM EST
    where else can you get this coverage!!!!!!!!!!!

    I am just glad that (none / 0) (#5)
    by eric on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 09:50:30 AM EST
    unlike previous years, we aren't being held hostage by this state.

    Bradley Effect (none / 0) (#6)
    by Semanticleo on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 10:24:06 AM EST
    I know it would be anecdotal, but would you mind extrapolating the non-AA voters who SAY they are for Obama, but in the privacy of the booth, reflect the socially unacceptable bigot?

    Thats been covered here... (5.00 / 1) (#7)
    by Thanin on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 10:27:42 AM EST
    and on fivethirtyeight quite a bit.  The general consensus is that its bunk.

    Parent
    sigh. (none / 0) (#14)
    by coigue on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 11:34:43 AM EST