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The Polls - 10/28

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 08:46:25 AM EST
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A week to go. DKos/R2000 has Obama by 7, 50-43. The last two days of tracking has Obama at +5 and +6. Expect a 6 point race in that poll tomorrow. Ras has it a steady 5 point lead for Obama, 51-46. Hotline still has Obama +8, 50-42. ABC/WaPo has Obama + 7, 52-45. Gallup Expanded has Obama by 10, 52-42.

Only 2 polls (I do not consider Zogby a pollster) have Obama below 50 - Battleground (the problem with Battleground is it has data from a 6 day period), which has Obama winning 49-46, and IBD/TIPP, which has Obama winning 47-44, signalling a high undecided, not likely a week out.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

< Why McCain Doesn't Have the Numbers to Win | Political Demography: Ohio >

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    The Polls - 10/28 | 29 comments (29 topical)

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    What is (5.00 / 1) (#10)
    by lilburro on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 09:16:13 AM EST
    a nice little network like CSPAN doing with the likes of Zogby anyway??

    SUSA Ohio (none / 0) (#1)
    by andgarden on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 09:00:02 AM EST
    Obama 49, McCain 45.

    A little close for comfort, but Ohio isn't essential this year.

    hell with the GOP (none / 0) (#4)
    by TruthMatters on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 09:08:20 AM EST
    quietly conceding VA, even PA isn't a must win anymore!

    Ohio, FL, PA, a Democrat can hit 270 without those 3 states!

    it feels good not having to worry about FL for once.

    Parent

    you said it!!! (none / 0) (#21)
    by coigue on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 11:19:21 AM EST


    Parent
    Essentially (none / 0) (#8)
    by zvs888 on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 09:13:32 AM EST
    Unchanged though from the last SurveyUSA poll (50-45) of Ohio, which is very good news since that was taken 3 weeks ago, when Obama's numbers were peaking off the steam of the financial crisis jump.

    Parent
    Well, it's not the best news (none / 0) (#11)
    by andgarden on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 09:16:55 AM EST
    Look at the headline and tracking graph here (PDF).

    Parent
    That was an external event though? (none / 0) (#14)
    by zvs888 on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 09:23:18 AM EST
    The Bin Laden tape?

    Parent
    Yeah, that mattered (none / 0) (#15)
    by andgarden on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 09:25:37 AM EST
    But think about it this way: there's again no margin for a tape in Ohio.

    Parent
    Just a thought (none / 0) (#22)
    by coigue on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 11:23:52 AM EST
    probably a naiive one.

    Obama has focussed his fp talk on getting bin Laden in Afghanistan/Pakistan

    McCain is focussed on Iraq and Georgia.

    Pretty easy argument for Obama, and for once I think he may be able to effectively make that argument. His campaign is much more disciplined than Kerry's or Gore's.

    Parent

    And here's a fun one (none / 0) (#2)
    by andgarden on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 09:04:38 AM EST
    Jim Marshall is in another tight race.

    This is the second time. . . (none / 0) (#3)
    by LarryInNYC on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 09:05:24 AM EST
    that R2K poll has suddenly cut Obama's lead almost in half.  One day, he's polling at 12%, then he spends three days or so at 6 or 7%, then back up to 12%.

    Odd results.

    This really is a 6-7 point race (none / 0) (#5)
    by TruthMatters on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 09:09:37 AM EST
    and the up and downs are statistical noise.

    Parent
    Well (none / 0) (#6)
    by zvs888 on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 09:10:59 AM EST
    Rasmussen also had an extraordinarily strong McCain day of polling on Sunday.

    Obama's lead went from 52-44 to 51-46 on Monday.

    Those numbers will probably cycle out by Thursday though...

    Parent

    Did you really think (none / 0) (#7)
    by andgarden on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 09:11:07 AM EST
    that McCain was actually going to get 40 or 42 % of the vote at the end of the day? Nah, he'll get at least 45, and probably 47%.

    Parent
    Regardless. . . (none / 0) (#13)
    by LarryInNYC on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 09:22:13 AM EST
    the bimodality of the polling is odd.

    If the race tightens you expect 1) to see it happen over at least a few days of polling and 2) you expect it to remain that way, at least until there's a change in dynamic of the campaign.

    That's not what's happening here, according to the R2K numbers.  There seem to be two different races -- one a 12 point race and one a 6 point race.  Things seem to switch suddenly from one race to another and then back again.

    Parent

    Well, when you're polling every day (none / 0) (#16)
    by andgarden on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 09:26:47 AM EST
    there's inevitably going to be some fluctuation.

    I personally do think the race is tightening, and don't expect to see any more +12 days. But you don't need to be a +12 to win.

    Parent

    Republican coming home to the GOP candidate (none / 0) (#17)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 09:33:17 AM EST
    Inevitable.

    I say Obama by 6 on election day.

    Parent

    It's either 52/47 or 53/46 (none / 0) (#18)
    by andgarden on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 09:36:35 AM EST
    I'm expecting the former, but will take either.

    Parent
    Jesus. I'll take it. (none / 0) (#24)
    by coigue on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 11:25:36 AM EST
    After the last few elections, I am not greedy.

    Parent
    This doesn't appear to be. . . (none / 0) (#19)
    by LarryInNYC on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 09:37:45 AM EST
    random statistical fluctuation.  You would expect that to be more random -- days of six, eight, twelve, or fourteen point leads occasionally mixed in with general polling of nine or ten points.

    These fluctuations aren't random, they're bimodal 11/12 points and 6/7 points.  And their not occasional.  They occur in units of at least three days -- the rolling period determined by the pollsters to give the best true picture of where the race is.

    Parent

    Well, go figure (none / 0) (#20)
    by andgarden on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 09:39:50 AM EST
    I think what you're seeing isn't so meaningful. It's not like we're fluctuating from +6 to -6.

    Parent
    The undecideds? (none / 0) (#23)
    by coigue on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 11:25:00 AM EST
    Are they deciding then changing their minds?

    Parent
    BTD (none / 0) (#9)
    by Jlvngstn on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 09:15:33 AM EST
    Do you have any thoughts on fall out after the election and the paid staffers who will lose their jobs on the O campaign?  I wonder if 4-6 months into the presidency people will start to feel abandoned once the jobs are gone and a stimulus jobs package takes 9-12 months to create jobs.  

    THose staffers are being paid (none / 0) (#25)
    by coigue on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 11:27:26 AM EST
    22K per year (for the most part) to work 80 hour weeks. They will probably collapse in relief and get jobs where they are paid at more than an interns salary.

    Parent
    that's a republican wage! (none / 0) (#26)
    by Jlvngstn on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 01:39:07 PM EST
    thanks coigue.  Worried about backlash after the first of the year when layoffs really start hitting and the supporters can't get jobs.  My guess is they will be grateful for the experience and wage considering there isn't much work out there anyway but I am paranoid...

    Parent
    heh. actually, it's a (none / 0) (#27)
    by coigue on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 02:30:29 PM EST
    committed non profit wage! I think, however, the experience is probably a good thing, as I am thinking that people who are either 1) fresh out of college or 2) really interested in politics as the people who take these jobs.

    I thought about it myself, but I have two kids and there is no way I can work 80-100 hours per week (it would have been fun, though)

    Parent

    I do think it's a shame (5.00 / 1) (#28)
    by lilburro on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 03:16:18 PM EST
    that with all the money in politics, the lower level organizers get paid that little.  I hope they have healthcare.  Some grassroots non-profit workers do not.

    Parent
    the ad in the paper offered full benefits (none / 0) (#29)
    by coigue on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 04:01:56 PM EST
    but it's a very short term job.

    Parent
    national polls (none / 0) (#12)
    by Jlvngstn on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 09:20:29 AM EST
    mean nothing to me any more. I saw a chart this morning that showed a tremendous spike in southern voters for McCain, yet the swing states or battleground states remain pro-Obama.  

    When I see a drop in Pa, OH, FL, VA, CO, NM etc I will be concerned but methinks at this point the -race is a 7-8 spread and more importantly, McCain simply does not have the electorals even at a 3 pt spread.

    The Polls - 10/28 | 29 comments (29 topical)

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