1.  The primary results in certain states had no bearing whatsoever on whether Obama would carry them in the general.

2.  The Jewish vote would go to Obama as usual, especially once Palin was selected (my mother was a poll sample of 1 on this).

3.  There would be no Bradley Effect--why would racists lie to pollsters when they have no problem being racists at public rallies and videos.

1.  I thought John McCain would run a honorable, centrist campaign.

2.  Hillary would not campaign all-out for Obama.  She did that and more, and my hat's off to her.

I thought McCain was going to be a better candidate than he was.  

I was sure that the media will support McCain over Obama. It wouldn't make much difference to the general voter, but does make a difference to the upper upper middle class that is the media and the people who are the bedrock of Obama supporters.

Anyone who was paying attention to reality knew that, so it's hardly a significant observation.

Surprised that McCain didn't go all out on Obama.  Doubt it would have worked either.

Thought that Sarah Palin would be able to go the distance without making major errors.  Also thought the Media would be more forgiving of her.  Not sure why the Media jumped on her so hard.

Not much Obama did surprised me.  He avoided the C-word almost completely.  He ran a solid campaign in a strategic sense, but continuously disappointed on substantial policy and vision.  This is why I keep saying that John Q Milquetoast (D) could have won with a good campaign - because I think Obama was John Q Milquetoast in terms of policy.

Obama did do a great job of fund raising, but can he do it again?

More than a year before the primaries, I predicted that Huckabee would be the sleeper candidate.  He wouldn't win the nomination, but he'd break out of the pack and win a number of primaries.

I predicted that McCain would pick Palin as VP.

The % results in a lot of Dem primaries.  Most notably OH/TX.  I think I was the only person on TL to call that night exactly.

That the economy would collapse due to the housing bubble bursting, and that the Dow would drop to eight thousand and something.

That Hillary wouldn't give up till the last primary, then (if she lost) she would campaign vigorously for Obama.

Things I was wrong about:

The major thing I was wrong about and it colored a lot of my predictions is I believed Hillary had more institutional support within the party than she did. Boy was I wrong!

That this campaign would allow the blogosphere to have a mature discussion of gender and race.  I laugh at myself now for thinking such a ridiculous thing.

The New Hampshire Primary results.  A lot of the Republican primary results.

Things that just flat out surprised me:

The massive support of Obama in the MSM.

The endless sexism of the MSM.

The rehabilitation of Teddy Kennedy.  Never thought I'd hear the MSM speak glowingly of him within his lifetime.  But after he endorsed Obama, they did.  

1. Hillary being a factor after the primaries. As much as the media tried, there was just no Hillary-related narrative that caught on.

2. Palin being a game-changer (in McCain's favor).

 2) misogyny was rampant only in small percentage of the population, ergo I was surprised to learn that it is so widespread and so near the surface, e.g., that MSM pundits would openly engage in it on teevee.

I was wrong about McCain retaining his media favored status.

And I was hoping that some Obama supporters who had predicted that Hillary would actively seek to undermine Obama's election would admit that they had been wrong. So far, nada.

But anyway, I was wrong in thinking that:

1. Obama couldn't win PA or would win it by a hair.

2. Obama couldn't win VA.

3. Obama couldn't win Indiana. (I'm still in shock over that one--and I bet so are a bunch of red state Indianans. :) )

4. Palin would be a smart choice for McCain. (Man, is my face red. Like McCain, I've learned the importance of vetting before making these pronouncements.)

 2) the racism in the country would be worse than the misogyny.

While I was right to vote for Hillary Clinton, I was obviously wrong about who survived the primaries.

And, I was wrong about the Democratic Party. Their leaders badly mishandled the candidacy of the first serious female contender for the presidency in their party by refusing to address blatant sexism.  The party of the big tent couldn't handle two giant leaps of amazing diversity at once?  Who'da'thunkit?  

I was right about McCain choosing Palin as VP. To be fair, it was a gut feeling about where McCain was going to go once Obama chose Biden.  I give a lot of credit to the data on this site, where she'd been mentioned as a possible VP candidate.  

1. That media would go back to their true love John McCain after the nominations

2. That McCain would moderate after the GOP convention

3. Said Obama wouldn't carry Florida and would have trouble with Michigan.

4. Said I'd be shocked if Obama carried NC and thought that Obama carrying Indiana was a fantasy

1. The media would decide which primary candidates would get major play

2. Media would pick the eventual nominees

3. Media would pick the President

I was really really really wrong about how well the ground game worked out - anyone remember how Jerry Brown was gonna get us college kids involved in '79 (or so?) --- YAWN ---

and, I'm really really glad I was wrong on that count.

Anyone hear want to cop to being wrong about their own prejudices?  I have a huge prejudice against the monied class, and I was convinced they would never let Obama get elected.

I was (thankfully) wrong in thinking that GOP dirty deeds would take the election away from Obama and give it to McCain.

The American people are who they are, and not who the media say they are.  I'm proud of us.

(2) I was correct in picking almost every demographic that would break heavily in favor of Obama (I expected white working class women and Hispanics who had voted overwhelmingly for HRC in the primaries to break strongly for Obama in the GE).

(3) I was correct in my assessment that the debates would make Obama and break McCain.

Wrongs

(1) Vice Presidential candidates:
Biden was not in my short list of 5-6 candidates that I expected Obama to pick from. My short list had Bayh, Kaine, Clark, Sebelius and even Sam Nunn or Bob Graham. When rumors started to fly around about the possible choices in the week before selections were made, I thought it was a toss-up between Bayh and Nunn.
I was almost certain that McCain would pick a women VP candidate or a Republican politician from the South or Romney (I did not think that Romney would be McCain's own choice, however I felt that the Republican establishment would force him on McCain because he was dependent on them to raise money). I expected the choice to narrow down to Kay Bailey Hutchinson, Romney and Palin. However, after the troopergate story emerged (a few weeks before the VP picks), I thought that Palin was no longer in contention. After I heard that Kay Bailey Hutchinson had ruled herself out, I thought that McCain had no other choice but to pick Romney.