CNN Announces First Exit Polls, Others Follow

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 04:01:41 PM EST
Tags: Barack Obama, John McCain, 2008 Exit Polls (all tags)

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Update 7:45pm: You can search the ABC exit polls here. CNN's are up for each state. Just go to their presidential page and click on the state you are interested in.

Update 6:45pm: 72% of white evangelicals voted for McCain. Bush got 78% of them, a six point drop for McCain. McCain is winning them in every state, with Mississippi at the top, Minnesota at the bottom.

Update: 6:30pm: Higher income voters (earning more than $100k) went for Obama nationally 52% to 47%. In Ohio, these voters preferred McCain but in Colorado, they preferred Obama. Translation: the tax issue isn't working nationally for McCain. [More below....]

Update: 6:22 pm: ABC has exit polls up .

Update 6:00 pm: 93% say the economy is really bad, but 47% say it will get better. On taxes, 70% say Obama will raise taxes, 61% say McCain will. (This matches a poll that was released earlier this week.) Update: 5:40 pm: New voters: In every state, they went to Obama. 72% of new voters voted for Obama.

Update: 5:30 pm: Terrorism, 9% of voters said it was their main issue. Of them, McCain led 86% to 13%. In PA, 88% of those voters chose McCain, 12% Obama. McCain led with these voters in all the states they showed. My view: Who in their right mind thinks terrorism is the top issue, over the economy? These are clearly fringe voters, happily, there are only 9% of them.

Update 5:14 pm: Iraq: Concern about the war helped Obama. Among the 10% who said they were most concerned about it, 63% voted for Obama, 36% for McCain. Obama won voters most concerned about Iraq in 48 states, the exceptions were Kentucky and one I couldn't read.

5pm ET, CNN is about to announce first exit polls. I'll update.

Top Issue: The Economy, 62% said it's the top issue on their minds. Iraq? 10%. Terrorism, health care: 9%.

The exit polls are done at the polling places. They get a questionnaire. Every sixth or so voter gets them.

What about those who mailed in their ballots or early voters? No exit polls, but they are telephoned, land line or cell, and asked the same questions.

CNN's exit polls will be available here.

First polls close at 6pm ET.

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CNN Announces First Exit Polls, Others Follow | 32 comments (32 topical)

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MSNBC (5.00 / 0) (#3)
by magster on Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 04:08:51 PM EST

and especially Buchanan seem to be tipping their hand that Obama is doing well. Talking about history, and Buchanan talking about why voters are voting for Democrats.

Just my tealeaf reading.

Also Drudge rumor.

And Lancaster PA exit poll for Obama when Bush won that are 2:1.

But Chris Matthews (none / 0) (#4)
by gyrfalcon on Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 04:10:12 PM EST

is looking very distraught and agitated and Olbermann is keeping a poker face...


On the other hand (5.00 / 1) (#6)
by robrecht on Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 04:14:17 PM EST

Rove looks pretty grim over on Fox. I plan on watching a lot of Fox tonight, savoring each and every grimace and sigh.


: Rove has been saying (5.00 / 0) (#11)
by gyrfalcon on Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 04:24:31 PM EST

Obama's going to win for some time now, much to the disappointment of his buddies at Fox. He's apparently got a pretty good Web site with state-by-state polls, maps, electoral votes, etc., adding up to pretty much the same thing as BTD and other reasonably rational people. :-)
Rove is evil but he's not stupid and he clearly values his credibility as a political soothsayer enough not to want to make a fool of himself.
The less tuned in Fox anchors/hosts have kept asking him, How come the national polls are so close but you have Obama way ahead? Whereupon he patiently explains over and over again about battleground states and electoral college numbers.

They just peckish ... (none / 0) (#10)
by Robot Porter on Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 04:23:38 PM EST

waiting for the caterers.

Those big heads require a lot of sustenance.

;)


GOP North Carolina guy (none / 0) (#12)
by gyrfalcon on Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 04:25:11 PM EST

is grinning from ear to ear.


Says big, big rural turn-out (none / 0) (#13)
by gyrfalcon on Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 04:26:08 PM EST

in NC, AAs not.

His eyes are just gleaming with happiness. Yuck.


Ew (5.00 / 0) (#14)
by lilburro on Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 04:28:29 PM EST

who is this d-bag?

I think AA turnout will be quite solid.


Based on what? (none / 0) (#20)
by Pepe on Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 04:39:57 PM EST

Why is your opinion better than the guy on TV?


I live in NC (5.00 / 0) (#22)
by lilburro on Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 04:47:15 PM EST

most AAs I have spoken to have voted early. I think people are pumped up. AA turnout isn't going to be depressed.


Well we don't know (none / 0) (#28)
by Pepe on Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 05:39:51 PM EST

if a few speak for all do we? I spoke to a few twenty somethings who work at the supermarket that are not voting. I guess that means most twenty soemthings are not voting in my entire state?

One thing that happens in every election is that as an election seem to be decided early a lot of voters just stay home because they feel it is a done deal and their one vote is not going to matter anyway. I'd be surprised if that doesn't happen this election also to some extent.


you seriously think AAs are not voting? nt (none / 0) (#31)
by sallywally on Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 06:40:35 PM EST

: Can you read? (none / 0) (#32)
by Pepe on Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 07:31:42 PM EST

I didn't come anywhere near saying what you are saying. You people who interject your own thoughts into other peoples posts are incredible. And it is not just me you do it to, you do it to others.

Let's just wait and see the numbers, yeah? (5.00 / 1) (#15)
by andgarden on Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 04:28:30 PM EST

Obama banked lots of votes there last week.


Like you're waiting, Andgarden! (none / 0) (#17)
by Robot Porter on Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 04:34:50 PM EST

LOL!


: heh, yeah, I know (5.00 / 0) (#19)
by andgarden on Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 04:39:55 PM EST

But I'm not interested in what some Republican party hack says.

After Bush said there were WMDs in Iraq, (5.00 / 1) (#23)
by steviez314 on Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 04:47:38 PM EST

why would you believe anything a Republican said on TV?

Do you think he'd get on TV and say "the ship is sinking, everyone for themselves"?

I watch TV with the mute button pressed. Much better!


: After Obama was on TV and said (1.00 / 0) (#29)
by Pepe on Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 05:43:17 PM EST

that he'd never vote for FISA why would anyone believe anything a Democrat said on TV?
After Obama was on TV and said he would start pulling troops out of Iraq immediately why would anyone believe anything a Democrat said on TV?

What Drudge rumor? (none / 0) (#16)
by gyrfalcon on Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 04:28:41 PM EST

Exit polls may not matter in VA (5.00 / 1) (#9)
by Cream City on Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 04:21:22 PM EST

owing to the ruling just handed down by the judge re the military ballots -- they are to be "preserved," with a hearing on Nov. 10.

So if it's close countrywide, and VA matters, and if it's close in VA -- it could have to be decided in the courts.

Btw, based on some evidence discussed, it does sound like -- i.e., the ruling seems to say the judge sees grounds -- the VA voting officials screwed up in not meeting federal requirements to get absentee ballots in the mail to military on time. Whether that screwup will matter, see paragraph 2.

Critical info not available? (5.00 / 1) (#24)
by LarryInNYC on Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 05:01:55 PM EST

Candidate preference breakdown of the 62% who believe the economy is most important.
What percentage of voters are "new voters".

: Hm (none / 0) (#25)
by Steve M on Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 05:06:37 PM EST

I saw new voters were 11%, about the same as 2004.

: mydd (none / 0) (#26)
by WS on Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 05:07:39 PM EST

says 10% of voters are new voters.

If Fox exit polling is correct (5.00 / 0) (#30)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 05:45:33 PM EST

Obama won Indiana - 44% of the white men voted for Obama?

Obama wins Indiana by 5 or 6 if that is correct.

The exit polls probably won't tell us (none / 0) (#1)
by andgarden on Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 04:08:07 PM EST

anything that the phone polls from last weekend didn't. But yes, just like everyone else, I am lapping up every detail I can get.

Exit polls.. (none / 0) (#2)
by TheRealFrank on Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 04:08:34 PM EST

They are pretty useless, especially with generic info like this. They're basically just a national poll with lots of caveats.

: Exit Polls are also known (none / 0) (#18)
by Pepe on Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 04:36:49 PM EST

to lie. What is said in the voting booth is what matters. Not what is said after voting when a person can lie at will.

pay no attention... (none / 0) (#5)
by white n az on Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 04:12:16 PM EST

to the man behind the curtain.

How can exit polls tell us anything if 35-60% have already voted in early voting?

: According to CNN (none / 0) (#8)
by Lil on Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 04:19:43 PM EST

they were called on the phone and added to the data. Right now the exit polls look great!

Exit Poll Reliability (none / 0) (#7)
by Key on Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 04:14:25 PM EST

I was exit polled this morning. (I also happened to be exit polled during the primary). The poll was a joint poll from the nets, and cable outlets.

Here's some information on the polling, and why I think the exit polls won't be that accurate this time around, even given that they call early voters....

Met a neighbor working the polling place (she is a big Obama supporter) who told me 59% of people in our precinct who self-identified themselves as Obama supporters, voted early. I went to early vote last week - it was more than a 4 hour wait. Today, no wait at all (although she told me at 7am there was a small wait).

On my way out was a person conducting an exit poll for the Nets (NBC, ABC, CBS....). My neighbor informed me that ours was one of just three precincts in the area that was being exit polled (although I'm not clear how broad an area we're talking about, although I suspect it was either city or district wide).

Since 59% of self-described Obama supporters voted early, the exit polls coming out of here are going to be pretty unreliable. Unless of course McCain had a similar early voter turnout, which I have a hard time seeing.

People really need be very cautious of exit poll results this year. Early voting may have done away with their usefulness. Guess we'll see tonight.

drudge (none / 0) (#21)
by txpublicdefender on Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 04:47:14 PM EST

Drudge's latest screaming red headline says exit polls show Obama "Big"

He also says exits show Obama +15 in PA

BTD, any noticeable (none / 0) (#27)
by mg7505 on Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 05:17:19 PM EST

effect from Biden and/or Palin? I sincerely hope that wasn't the top issue for anyone, but given that 1 in 10 people think terrorism is the biggest issue, you never know.