Quinnepac PA Poll: Obama Gains But Clinton Still Ahead by Six

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 12:13:17 PM EST
Tags: Pennsylvania '08 (all tags)

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A new Quinnepac poll on Pennsylvania is out. It shows Barack Obama cutting into Hillary Clinton's lead there, but she's still ahead, 49 to 43%.

The increase for Obama is attributed to the youth vote.

This biggest movement is among younger voters who went from 52 - 41 percent for Clinton February 14 to 58 - 41 percent for Obama today, a shift of 28 points.

The other numbers show:

Among likely Democratic primary voters, women back Clinton 53 - 39 percent, while men back Obama 50 - 43 percent; white voters go with Clinton 56 - 37 percent while black voters support Obama 69 - 23 percent. Democrats with a college degree favor Obama 53 - 41 percent, while voters without a degree back Clinton 52 - 39 percent.

More...

I think the PA numbers will be affected by the March 4 results. If Hillary wins big in Ohio and even marginally in Texas, her support in PA may rise. If she doesn't, PA may be irrelevant. It's primary is not until late April.

On a McCain matchup, the two are similar:

n a general election matchup, Sen. Clinton has 44 percent to 42 percent of registered voters for Arizona Sen. John McCain, the Republican front-runner. Sen. Obama has 42 percent to Sen. McCain's 40 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.

Reuters on the poll is here.

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Quinnepac PA Poll: Obama Gains But Clinton Still Ahead by Six | 34 comments (34 topical)

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Ignore the polls (5.00 / 1) (#13)
by koshembos on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 12:55:09 PM EST

With their track record, most polls aren't even close. NJ, MA and CA are good examples. The pollsters have to make a living but we don't have to listen. Tweety can do it.

: Too much of a generalization (none / 0) (#19)
by RiderOnTheStorm on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 01:15:21 PM EST

Some of the polls have been wrong; some of them have been very wrong.
But it's also true that some of them have come very close to nailing it.
Take a look at Pollster and compare, state-by-state, the results from the polls with actual election results. And note the scatter plots as well as the composite averages -- oh, and the trends. (There is, by the way, an excellent column there discussing the poll mash-ups that they create.)
The results of any one poll always have a nonzero probability of turning out be outliers. But when the results of multiple polls indicate similar trends, then they may well be reflecting a common underlying phenomenon.

Jeralyn, were you a political (none / 0) (#1)
by oculus on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 12:16:29 PM EST

junkie in the run up to 2000 and 2004 Presidential elections, or is this a recent development?

: Yes I was an election junkie (5.00 / 1) (#2)
by Jeralyn on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 12:20:22 PM EST

not a political junkie.
Check my other wesite's page on Hillary's 2000 race for the Senate, which I titled, Run Hillary, Run!
Also, I was one of the credentialed bloggers for the 2004 DNC in Boston, my coverage is here.
I also covered the RNC from NY in 2004 (uncredentialed).

These results (none / 0) (#3)
by magster on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 12:21:56 PM EST

make it hard for Hillary to justify continuing if Obama wins either Ohio or Texas.

How (none / 0) (#4)
by Marvin42 on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 12:27:29 PM EST

What do you see that makes you say that?


Well (none / 0) (#6)
by cannondaddy on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 12:30:30 PM EST

He's made up a lot of ground in OH and TX in two weeks. PA is two months away.


Delegates (none / 0) (#8)
by magster on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 12:34:03 PM EST

pledged Obama +150

supers Obama + 30, Clinton -4 since Super Tuesday.

Assuming Obama wins either Ohio or Texas, a tie in PA means Clinton has no way to catch Obama in either pledged delegates or popular vote. The superdelegate trend toward Obama will be a flood.
It'll be over.


: Probably (none / 0) (#21)
by Marvin42 on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 01:30:05 PM EST

But not yet. A double win would change the narrative a lot.

National poll (none / 0) (#5)
by cmugirl on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 12:30:01 PM EST

While it's really too far out for national polls to be accurate, I found this interesting, since up until now, every national poll had Obama beating McCain. Not anymore necessarily.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/

: McCain (none / 0) (#7)
by cannondaddy on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 12:31:07 PM EST

got a boost from the NYT story.

: In addition (none / 0) (#30)
by TeresaInSnow2 on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 04:51:29 PM EST

I swear they put a 'vocal filter' on Republicans so that they all sound just a little like Reagan. It's spooky.

The PA trend -- and TX revisited (none / 0) (#9)
by RiderOnTheStorm on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 12:48:10 PM EST

I'm not sure about those PA numbers -- not saying they're wrong, not saying they're right, but I'd like to see a second or third opinion from other polls before I assign them too much credibility. It seems rather odd to me that Senator Obama could make up that much ground that quickly without campaigning in the state.

Oh, and about Texas -- early voter turnout is through the roof. Early voter numbers are already pushing past previous total counts in places like Dallas County. For example, read this

And it can't be attributed to crossover voting by Republicans -- as noted in that page:

Dallas County broke the '06 total vote yesterday, with over 57,000 early votes (not counting the mail ballots). We've looked at about 55,000 of those, and as best we can tell, virtually half have no '02, '04 or '06 primary history. Less than 3,000 have previous R primary history over the same period.

BTD, you expressed some skepticism yesterday over my comments about Texas in November -- I'll reiterate that I think McCain will have a fight on his hands there if this kind of turnout can be sustained. This is the year for Democrats to contest every state, and force the Republicans to either play defense or give them up.

No one called me to ask (none / 0) (#16)
by BarnBabe on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 01:06:33 PM EST

I am in Penna. Guess I must fall in that category of hanging out with the white women. Maybe that is because the majority in NE PENNA are European decent like Polish, Welsh, Italian, Irish, and German all melted together. The Democratic ladies like Hillary and that includes the Catholic ladies. The Central part of the state is like that also but more Republican. Then you have Philly and Pittsburgh. But again, I don't screen my calls and no one has asked me who my choice is. But it is a closed Primary so we shall see. Hopefully it will still matter.


I am also (none / 0) (#31)
by sas on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 09:05:55 PM EST

in PA.

Most Democrats I know are for Hillary, with an occasional Obama.

As James Carville said, we have Phila, and Pittsburgh - and Alabama in between. The middle of the state is very Republican (some people joke that it is Pennsyltucky), with the Pittsburgh and Philadelphia areas much more Democratic. Of course thst's where most of the people are.

I expect Phila to be heavier toward Obama with the huge black population, and the Pittsburgh area to be heavily Clinton.

It will be interesting.


: I am in Wayne County (none / 0) (#34)
by BarnBabe on Thu Feb 28, 2008 at 10:35:43 PM EST

Which is Republican, but the Dems I think are for Hillary. At least all the ones I know. Wayne is next to Lackawanna which is Scranton and I think that would be Hillary too for the Dems. I could be wrong but I will know in April if she holds tough and does not quit.

Are you saying (none / 0) (#27)
by RalphB on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 03:33:50 PM EST

as "Dallas County" goes, so goes Texas? If so, you really need to rethink that position. A good start would be to take a look at the demographics of Dallas County.


You'd (none / 0) (#10)
by tek on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 12:49:43 PM EST

never think this is the case if you only read the MSM headlines. According to the media, Obama has already won the nomination.

PA news (none / 0) (#11)
by cannondaddy on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 12:51:14 PM EST

is going to be bad for her financial backers. Bad news cycle overall with John Lewis officially off the fence and other underclared supers joining him.

Polls and superelegate support (none / 0) (#14)
by cmugirl on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 12:55:53 PM EST

Link please! Last I saw yesterday was that Congressman Lewis was holding steady with HRC, despite JJ Jr's attempt to threaten his seat.


Here (none / 0) (#15)
by cannondaddy on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 01:04:46 PM EST

: More (none / 0) (#18)
by cannondaddy on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 01:09:51 PM EST

here on Dorgan.

Link as requested (none / 0) (#17)
by RiderOnTheStorm on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 01:06:36 PM EST

It's in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.


: Link (none / 0) (#20)
by cmugirl on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 01:20:22 PM EST

Thank you.

The bigger (none / 0) (#12)
by fladem1 on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 12:52:04 PM EST

news in that poll is the trial heats, which show PA, an absolute must have, essentially a dead heat.

People are seriously understating the difficulty we will have in beating McCain.

Obama will do to McCain (none / 0) (#22)
by Tano on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 01:41:14 PM EST

what he has done to Hillary.
The more he campaigns, the better he will do. Especially amongst indies, who are the ones who will decide the race.

Anectdotally, I do know of a group of a dozen or so people in Central Ohio, very hard line Republicans, who will not be voting this Nov. given their animosity toward McCain - at least so long as it is Obama on our ticket.

Their expressed opinion (hey, I was shocked) - Obama - a nice young man, maybe he would be alright.


Either Senator would shred McCain in debate (none / 0) (#23)
by RiderOnTheStorm on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 01:50:44 PM EST

McCain is a very poor off-the-cuff speaker -- as we saw just the other day when he took ownership of the war in Iraq, then repudiated it seconds later. He has absolutely no chance of standing up to Senator Obama or Senator Clinton (or the other Democratic candidates, for that matter) in a one-on-one debate, even if the moderators are inept.

Watch. His team will do everything they possibly can to prevent him from being in that situation. He's not even remotely intelligent enough to keep up with our candidates, and his staff knows it. (I think he knows it too, if his non-disavowal disavowal yesterday is any indicator. "Shucks, folks, how was I to know that an established racist wingnut would...talk like a racist wingnut?" I think we'll see more of this kind of not-my-fault I-didn't-know tactic.)


Its troubling (none / 0) (#26)
by thereyougo on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 02:33:30 PM EST

to see this type of candidate represent the opposition when compared to our sharp democrats vying for the nomination that McLame has had the good fortune to accomplish doing next to nothing.It insults my intelligence.

He's the weakest candidate, and either HIllary or Barack would sweep the floor with him. I mean, are the repulicans THAT out of touch with folks? Either that or the MSM is so partisan they forgive ANYTHING as long as its a republican doing it.But let it be Hillary to be accused of some the same transgressions as McCain and it would make their jaws drop to the floor.


Actually (none / 0) (#28)
by cannondaddy on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 03:43:10 PM EST

he was their stongest GE candidate. But there is much about him that doesn't sit well with their base. I think a key to winning will be reminding them of everything they hate about him: Gang of 14, the "amnesty" bill, McCain-Lieberman, votes against Bush tax cuts, etc.


: His base will love him (none / 0) (#29)
by RalphB on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 04:00:18 PM EST

compared with either Clinton or Obama. They'e coming together now, it's what they do :-)

Agreed. Midwest moderates (none / 0) (#25)
by Cream City on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 02:10:53 PM EST

cannot be counted on yet, and that's a swing number in several of those states.


The last (none / 0) (#32)
by sas on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 09:09:14 PM EST

polls I saw from Pa had Hillary beating McCain by about 6 , and Obama losing to McCain by about 4.

I do not think Obama can beat McCain in PA . Of course things change.

Obama has to have a good VP to get this state I think.


Intrade has Obama to win PA at around 80% (none / 0) (#24)
by Maggie on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 01:55:06 PM EST

Though, I think what the market is betting there is not based on the trend suggested by this one poll, but rather the expectation that HRC will have withdrawn by then. It's a thin market, so I suppose you could write it off on that basis.

But it seems right to me. She needed solid wins in both TX and OH. Right now, the smart money has her losing TX. OH will be close, though I suspect it will stay in her column. But that's not enough. Nothing in what happened last night changes that dynamic. I expect there will be a tide of superdelegates declaring for her after 3/4. And I expect her to withdraw by the end of that week. To continue beyond that point risks having her compared to Huckabee.

: She (none / 0) (#33)
by sas on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 09:11:07 PM EST

can stay in the race as long as she wants.
She doesn't have to win both just because Bill said it, or anyone said it for that matter.
Why not stay in?
Look at Huckabee - he's in, but has no chance.