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CNN Poll: Statistical Dead Heat

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 04:21:07 PM EST
Tags: Hillary Clinton, John McCain, Barack Obama (all tags)
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In a new CNN poll, it's a statistical dead heat between McCain-Hillary and McCain-Obama.

  • Hillary 49, McCain 47
  • Obama 47, McCain 46

According to CNN Polling Director Keating Holland:

"Clinton appears to do a little bit better than Obama among older voters, women, and self-identified Democrats against McCain; Obama's numbers may be slightly better among younger voters and those who describe themselves as Republicans and Independents."

Update: Gallup's daily tracking has Hillary ahead of Obama today.

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    CNN Poll: Statistical Dead Heat | 26 comments (26 topical)

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    Interesting (5.00 / 1) (#1)
    by Stellaaa on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 04:26:38 PM EST
    I read somewhere that at this stage Kerry, Gore and other Dems were poling way higher than the Republican candidate.  I have a feeling, this stuff does not mean a thing.  I still think we have not really heard from the "alleged swing voter" that will bring it home for Obama.  

    Same shot (none / 0) (#26)
    by Abdul Abulbul Amir on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 07:27:18 AM EST
    I have a feeling, this stuff does not mean a thing.

    Amen.  This far out, they don't mean much other than BHO and HRC have about the same shot at beating Johnny Mac.

    Parent

    Racism is Racism no Matter How Small . . . (5.00 / 1) (#25)
    by Doc Rock on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 06:11:53 AM EST
    I'll soon be 67.  I attended school in South Jersey as a child.  I had black teachers as well as black classmates. I was raised by a Jewish father and Catholic mother (with Quaker and Huguenot ancestry in addition to an Irish grandmother) both of whom were extremely liberal activist (having grown up in Brooklyn)in thought and action.  If we were raised with a prejudice, it was against southerners because of perceptions about how they viewed and treated blacks.

    I can readily appreciate and understand black anger about what their ancestors have endured and the burden yhey bear and attitudes they encounter.

    Nevertheless, I react to the racism of Wright's sermons because it rails against "whites."  To paint all with a monotone brush is purely racist.  If he railed against the nation overall, understandable, buit to single out one ethnicity is no different than those who focus hatred on blacks or Asians, or whatever.  

    I believe Mr. Obama when he says he repudiates these elements of Reverend Wright's preaching.  But, as my wife points out, she would not attend a church where the pastor's sermons so ruffled her sensibilities (and indeed, she has changed churches several times for just such reasons).  

    Racism is a two way street and if we don't confront it, but do tolerate it, it will continue to fester and grow.  

    I hope, as I believe Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton both have said, that the media and the candidates' surrogates will all change the focus of the remiander of the campaign to issues!

    PPP poll, (none / 0) (#2)
    by zyx on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 04:30:52 PM EST
    according to Slate ("Pennsylvania Domination") says Clinton is up by 26 in PA.  Other polls don't have her up by so much.  That would be a big win in a big state, if it sticks.

    Ah, polls.

    8 months is a long time (none / 0) (#3)
    by Deconstructionist on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 04:33:43 PM EST
     even in the absence of any bombshells the race will fluctuate up and down several times between now and November regardless of which candidate gets the nomination. Expect a bump up when it becomes clear which Democrat its going to be. then a settling. Then a bump followed by settling after each convention. What no one can say is how big the bumps and great the settlings will be and which of the candidates is truly more likely to engender bigger bumps and less settling.

    eh (none / 0) (#8)
    by Nasarius on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 04:44:23 PM EST
    Sure, those bumps will happen, but from my perspective this election is going to hinge on two things: the economy and Iraq. I think many many people still think of McCain as some kind of maverick, and don't fully realize he's no less committed to the occupation of Iraq than Bush. That's where Obama has the advantage of being able to say "I opposed this war from the start, and you can trust me not to nuke Iran." The vast majority of the public (about 2/3) now opposes the war, so this is a huge advantage for either Dem candidate.

    As for the economy, who can say. No obvious advantage right now, though I think the Dems score points for opposing NAFTA.

    But as with Kerry, image might trump all. I'm truly dreading the ugly onslaught that will inevitably come, again for either Obama or Clinton. Clinton's advantage here is that it's the same boring crap we heard nonstop in the 90s.

    Parent

    The Economy? Are you kidding me? (none / 0) (#10)
    by sar75 on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 04:48:02 PM EST
    The economy will be by far and away the biggest issue in November, and there is no way that it doesn't benefit the Democratic candidate enormously.  Have you see right track/wrong track numbers? Are you better off now numbers? Gas prices? Unemployment will go up. The credit crisis will persist.

    Folks, when it comes to the economy, advantage MASSIVELY Democrats.  In fact, the economy may make it impossible for any Republican candidate to win against any Democratic candidate, no matter how high her negatives. :)

    Parent

    yes (none / 0) (#11)
    by Capt Howdy on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 04:50:11 PM EST
    we democrats should want this to be about the economy.
    the war is far less certain ground for us.

    Parent
    by less certain (none / 0) (#13)
    by Capt Howdy on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 04:52:29 PM EST
    I mean less electorally certain.  sure people oppose the war, then we get into the details and well, you know.  the devil and all.


    Parent
    heh (none / 0) (#12)
    by Nasarius on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 04:51:31 PM EST
    Well, if it weren't for Bush's social security debacle, I would say never misunderstimate the power of Republican spin. But you're probably right. I doubt anyone's in the mood for more promises about the magical powers of tax cuts.

    Parent
    yeah (none / 0) (#14)
    by Capt Howdy on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 04:53:58 PM EST
    saw a bunch of rich republicans bashing the idea of more tax cuts on FOX over the weekend.
    it was weird.


    Parent
    They didn't give enough information (none / 0) (#4)
    by dianem on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 04:38:34 PM EST
    There is no information at that link about when the poll was taken, the polling methology, or even what the error is.

    the margin of error (none / 0) (#5)
    by Jeralyn on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 04:41:41 PM EST
    the poll had a 3 percentage point margin of error. It's in the beginning of the article.

    Parent
    Thank you (none / 0) (#22)
    by dianem on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 05:29:53 PM EST
    But I'd still like to see when the poll was conducted. It could represent a temporary decline for Obama because of the Wright mess, or it could be mostly pre-Wright data. It will be a few weeks before things sort out again. Polls right now are fairly meaningless. Actually, polls showing the results of the election in the fall are meaningless anyway, imo, but they are especially meaningless during times of rapid opinion changes.

    Parent
    never trust a cnn poll (none / 0) (#6)
    by lily15 on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 04:42:16 PM EST
    Obama is a disaster and the purpose of these polls is to further the nomination of Obama by totally clueless Democrats.  I am now convinced that if Obama is nominated it will devastate the Democratic party and affect down ticket races.  The fact that this is not obvious to Democrats is frightening.  Wasn't Al Gore down in the polls before the election? Only some polls are believable.  Others are pure propaganda and designed to manipulate.

    I don't (none / 0) (#7)
    by americanincanada on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 04:42:44 PM EST
    have much confidence that Obama's young voters or his indys will stay with hium through November.

    is somone watching cnn for me (none / 0) (#9)
    by Capt Howdy on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 04:44:46 PM EST
    I left a comment on Caffertys blog question "will Hillary do anything to win?" and I think it will be read since it was pretty much the only pro Hillary comment I could find.
    my answer was "I hope so"

    but the SUSA polls (none / 0) (#15)
    by myed2x on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 05:01:30 PM EST
    that you turned me on to when you were referencing them as the best polling outfit around over the last few weeks shows a different story....

    SurveyUSA. 2/26-2/28

    McCain 41
    Obama 50

    McCain 48
    Clinton 42
    --
    check it here

    that was a lifetime ago (none / 0) (#16)
    by Capt Howdy on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 05:05:48 PM EST


    Parent
    You do realize (none / 0) (#17)
    by tree on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 05:08:49 PM EST
    that the numbers you are citing are from over 2 and a half weeks ago, right?

    Parent
    drat (none / 0) (#19)
    by myed2x on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 05:13:29 PM EST
    I hate it when that happens...I try to be adversarial but in a polite way, but I should never post from work where I have to be lickety split on the post...

    advantage TL...heh :)

    Parent

    however (none / 0) (#20)
    by myed2x on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 05:16:26 PM EST
    i suppose my point was that you cite polls that are advantageous, and ignore those that are not...everyone is guilty of that, not just here, but I do remember a few weeks ago when polls were showing OB dominating that the consensus here was that polls were all BS etc etc...now however that seems not to be the way they're looked at?

    Parent
    no sweat! (none / 0) (#21)
    by tree on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 05:20:04 PM EST
    It happens. I might be wrong on this, but it also looks like the poll is specific to Colorado. It says Geography:Colorado and breaks the percentages out for Denver. The polls might be accurate at SurveyUSA but personally I find their website is hard to navigate.

    Parent
    Thanks, I thought it was just me (none / 0) (#23)
    by Cream City on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 06:03:15 PM EST
    getting the deer-caught-in-the-headlights look whenever I look at SUSA's site.  (Btw, I find it easier to follow it in summaries at pollster.com and realclearpolitics.com.)

    Parent
    Just read this on a local newspaper (none / 0) (#18)
    by BarnBabe on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 05:09:13 PM EST
    This appeared on the Wayne Independent and sounds very encouraging.
    Meanwhile, the election office has been very busy. It was stated after the  Commissioners' meeting that "many people" have been leaving the Republican Party and switching to Democrat before the April 22nd Primary. She said this was highly unusual, but this is an unusual election, she added. There was one instance so far of a Democrat who came in to switch to Republican.

    I say encouraging because it is saying that existing Republicans are changing. Not new voters and it fits the demographics of this area. NE Penna, other than the Scranton area, is rural with smaller towns. You can even see cows and farms and barns. I wonder who that one Dem was?

    I know of a few and they are not changing just to vote in the primary. They want Hillary to be the winner and they will vote for her in the GE.

    So What. (none / 0) (#24)
    by pluege on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 07:30:30 PM EST
    why do they waste our time with popularity contests that are close to meaningless. The only question that counts is: what is the the likely electoral college vote match-ups?

    CNN Poll: Statistical Dead Heat | 26 comments (26 topical)

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