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Pennsylvania Exit Polls: Thread Three

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 05:32:18 PM EST
Tags: Pennsylvania '08, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama (all tags)
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CBS has posted its exit polling from Pennsylvania.

  • Most decided before this week
  • The economy was the dominant issue by 2 to 1 over Iraq (54% to 28%).Only 14% chose health care.
  • Change was more important to voters than experience by 49% to 26%.
  • 54% said campaign ads that aired in the past week was important.

CNN exit polling: (via TV)

  • 37% said they have a gun. 58% of them voted for Hillary
  • 39% attend church weekly. 59% voted for Clinton.

So, according to CNN, Obama didn't carry the gun or religious voters.

CNN also says there are a lot of first time voters among those newly registered. Wolf Blitzer says this is a big deal.

< More Exit Polls : Thread Two | Tonight's Media Coverage of the Pennsylvania Primary >

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    Pennsylvania Exit Polls: Thread Three | 66 comments (66 topical)

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    I think the first time voters (5.00 / 1) (#1)
    by rooge04 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 05:34:26 PM EST
    will not be as big of an issue as CNN wants it to be.  

    And some of those first time voters (none / 0) (#6)
    by diplomatic on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 05:41:33 PM EST
    Could very easily split for Clinton to keep her in the race.  The media sees everything through Obama brand rose-colored glasses.

    Parent
    Not to mention that (none / 0) (#9)
    by rooge04 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 05:42:37 PM EST
    I believe his support amongst youngsters isn't nearly as all-encompassing as the news outlets would lead us to believe. I'm only 28 and most of my friends are Hillary supporters. MEN and women.  All under 35.

    Parent
    My son (none / 0) (#28)
    by AnninCA on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 05:57:02 PM EST
    is super-liberal and voted for Hillary.  He does regularly flip out that the negativity will harm the party.  He's like a born-again Dem.  (Voted Green.  Now has converted.)

    His girlfriend......also Hillary.

    I was so proud.  :)

    Parent

    My hubby too. (none / 0) (#42)
    by rooge04 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:14:43 PM EST
    He's as much of a feminist as I am!

    Parent
    Wha's more interesting (none / 0) (#66)
    by fkperiera on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:49:07 PM EST
    to me is this:

    "Change was more important to voters than experience by 49% to 26%."

    Given that Hillary won outright, it seems to me the underlying sentiment amongst voters is that it is Hillary, not Obama, who represents change.  Her experience is thus just a corollary.

    Probably not the effect the Obama camp was hoping for...

    Parent

    It sounds like a big night for Hillary (5.00 / 1) (#2)
    by myiq2xu on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 05:34:31 PM EST
    The only question is how big.

    Yup. (5.00 / 1) (#3)
    by rooge04 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 05:35:17 PM EST
    She will rout him. They will not call it until it's ridiculously over.  She'll be winning immediately IMO no matter how they try to spin it.

    Parent
    Tweety has gotten (5.00 / 2) (#8)
    by litigatormom on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 05:42:30 PM EST
    Chuck Todd to say that a 6 percent Clinton margin was a reasonable expectation.

    Tweety just called her "the local girl" twice within 30 seconds. As if to say that this gives her a home court advantage that makes a small spread an Obama win.

    Tweety just called Clinton's remarks to KO last night on Iran as "militant." Is that better or worse than "bellicose"?  

    Parent

    Well they were quite forceful (5.00 / 1) (#27)
    by diplomatic on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 05:54:42 PM EST
    When she said "we will obliterate them" that was pretty strong language.

    The latte liberals wince at that, while the more centrist amongst us say "right on."

    Parent

    Ohio (5.00 / 1) (#4)
    by DaveOinSF on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 05:37:15 PM EST
    In Ohio, Hillary only won weekly church goers 51-47

    Churchgoers (5.00 / 1) (#16)
    by Stellaaa on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 05:48:07 PM EST
    I thought all the pandering to the right and religions was to woo the churchgoers, I guess that worked out really well.  Another left idiocy about the electorate.  

    Parent
    Good golly...... (5.00 / 1) (#20)
    by AnninCA on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 05:50:35 PM EST
    Now you've made me nervous!  I find myself clinging to Zolgby.  :)

    Need to tie healthcare to the economic (5.00 / 4) (#33)
    by jawbone on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:05:59 PM EST
    wellbeing of every person. It undermines when lost or never had; and having it without fear of employment tie would be an immense relief for everyone. Well, who's not uber-wealthy.

    For a Lot of Folks (5.00 / 2) (#34)
    by BDB on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:07:10 PM EST
    Healthcare is part of the economy - it's tied to their jobs, it affects their finances.

    Those 54% that said the (5.00 / 1) (#37)
    by rooge04 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:10:23 PM EST
    ads were important broke for Clinton. Sweet.

    Oh - better news! (5.00 / 2) (#39)
    by cmugirl on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:11:44 PM EST
    Late deciders break for Clinton

    HERE

    58 percent chose Clinton (none / 0) (#43)
    by Dawn Davenport on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:15:30 PM EST
    "58 percent of those who decided in last week chose Clinton, exit polls show"

    Parent
    That 55% of White Male Number (5.00 / 2) (#40)
    by BDB on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:13:02 PM EST
    If that turns out to be true, a big if as far as I'm concerned, it will be a huge night for Clinton.  The last SUSA poll that had her with that level of white male support was the one that had her up by 18.   Personally, that seems too good to be true to me.  I'll be thrilled with anything over 10 and happy with anything over 5.  If she wins by more than 15, it's big trouble for Obama, IMO.

    Good point. (none / 0) (#44)
    by andgarden on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:18:24 PM EST


    Parent
    Survey USA today on NC... (5.00 / 1) (#41)
    by white n az on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:14:27 PM EST
    Survey USA on NC

    Obama   50
    Clinton 41

    looks like it's tightening...

    NC (5.00 / 1) (#60)
    by AnninCA on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:45:55 PM EST
    tightening......

    Can we beat up on him for losing his 26 point lead?

    LOL*

    Parent

    within striking distance (none / 0) (#47)
    by diplomatic on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:26:22 PM EST
    If someone gets a bounce out of Pennsylvania, those NC numbers are close enough that it can matter.

    Parent
    Oh and almost forgot: Edwards (none / 0) (#48)
    by diplomatic on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:26:57 PM EST
    Edwards will have some clout again.

    Parent
    NO it's not. Are you confusing this poll with (none / 0) (#51)
    by IndiDemGirl on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:29:53 PM EST
    one that showed him up 18 or so? Different one.  Here are the comments regarding the 50 - 41 from today.

    Obama's advantage has fluctuated imperceptibly, or not at all, in four tracking polls conducted over the past 90 days. With 14-days until N.C. votes are counted, Obama leads by 9 points. In five previous tracking polls, going back to before the Michigan Primary, Obama's lead has been 4 points, 10 points, 8 points, 10 points.
    41% Clinton
    50% Obama
    5% Other
    5% Undecided


    Parent

    I must be... (none / 0) (#56)
    by white n az on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:34:38 PM EST
    I was of the opinion that Obama had a double digit lead in NC

    Parent
    Depends on which poll you look at. (none / 0) (#58)
    by IndiDemGirl on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:39:28 PM EST
    There are one or even two that show a double digit lead which has been fairly stable for a time.  Then there's this one which shows him with less of a lead, but still not much change.  

    Parent
    ABC News exit poll: Women voters huge? (none / 0) (#5)
    by diplomatic on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 05:40:29 PM EST
    http://tinyurl.com/59ardg

    Perhaps 60% turnout of Democratic women, if ABC is to be believed.

    and the voters say (5.00 / 2) (#22)
    by Josey on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 05:51:08 PM EST
    Hillary has been the most negative campaigner.
    Probably has nothing to do with media pundits repeating that lie nonstop.


    Parent
    That's because O camp has been drumming (5.00 / 1) (#24)
    by nycstray on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 05:52:26 PM EST
    that into them. I bet if you asked them, they couldn't give specifics . . .  

    Parent
    Here in Indiana (none / 0) (#61)
    by IndiDemGirl on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:47:08 PM EST
    I've received 3 pieces of literature from Hillary -- all slamming Obama. Nothing yet from Obama, yet.  Keep in mind that though people claim they hate negative campaigning, it often works.  

    Parent
    Negative (5.00 / 1) (#64)
    by AnninCA on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:52:04 PM EST
    has been Obama from Day 1.

    That's his true unifying message.

    Frankly, I think Michael Moore's endorsement message is the epitomy of Obama.

    Read it.

    Let it sink in.

    It's absolutely filled with negativity.  There's hardly a nod to Obama.

    I love Michael's works, too, but his endorsement message was the "essence of Obamamania" to me.

    Parent

    We call them cornfed... (5.00 / 1) (#53)
    by goldberry on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:32:01 PM EST
    ...not huge.  
    It's mostly muscle anyway.The large number of females does not surprise me.  Clinton volunteers told me they registered a LOT of Republican women for Clinton before the deadline in March.  And they were not switching parties to screw with the system.  The volunteers said they were grateful and relieved that they still had an opportunity to switch for her.
    My theory is that a lot of moderate suburban type Republican women got scared when they saw McCain as the nominee and realized that Obama is toast against him in the fall.  Hillary is the only one who stands a chance of beating him and preventing him from making the next Supreme Court nomination.


    Parent
    Pollsters live-blogging exit polls (none / 0) (#45)
    by Cream City on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:23:06 PM EST
    at pollster.com, always fascinating.  (Commenters split to about half of them as smart as pollster, half of them shilling for candidates, so skim them for the good ones -- and stick to the live-blogging pollsters as best.)

    Parent
    Is it safe to turn the tv on? (none / 0) (#7)
    by Stellaaa on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 05:42:16 PM EST


    It depends (5.00 / 3) (#10)
    by litigatormom on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 05:43:02 PM EST
    Have you injected yourself with the Tweety vaccine?

    Parent
    It never is Stella...never! (5.00 / 2) (#11)
    by rooge04 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 05:43:16 PM EST
    Do what I do. Keep CNN on mute and only read Talk Left.

    Parent
    Er, that's what I'm doing (none / 0) (#55)
    by goldberry on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:33:30 PM EST
    Actually, it's msnbc and I put it on pause.  So, Ed Rendell is just sitting there with his mouth open.

    Parent
    Not yet (none / 0) (#12)
    by Teresa on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 05:43:42 PM EST


    Parent
    I swept the sidewalk... (5.00 / 2) (#13)
    by Stellaaa on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 05:46:15 PM EST
    there is nothing else to do.  

    Parent
    I am watching Judge Judy...:-) (none / 0) (#14)
    by athyrio on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 05:46:33 PM EST
    plus praying alot for Hillary....

    I think (none / 0) (#15)
    by Josey on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 05:46:53 PM EST
    Obama may win tonight.  BAWAAAAAA!
    are you crying or laughing? (5.00 / 1) (#21)
    by diplomatic on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 05:50:45 PM EST
    BwaAAAaa indeed!

    Parent
    I'm crying! (none / 0) (#26)
    by Josey on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 05:53:43 PM EST
    lol

    Parent
    It seems to me (5.00 / 2) (#30)
    by Steve M on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 05:59:16 PM EST
    that if his internal polls showed even a faint chance of victory, there's no way he would have left the state tonight.  We'll see.

    Parent
    What is wrong with you? (none / 0) (#17)
    by Stellaaa on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 05:48:45 PM EST


    Parent
    Heh (none / 0) (#19)
    by Lahdee on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 05:50:17 PM EST
    ::looks to Ouija board for news::

    Parent
    Don't give Zogby any ideas (5.00 / 2) (#25)
    by diplomatic on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 05:52:51 PM EST


    Parent
    How truly sad (none / 0) (#18)
    by Lahdee on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 05:49:20 PM EST
    "54% said campaign ads that aired in the past week was important."
    Oye. I hope it's not moron America all over again.

    Depends which ads they liked (5.00 / 1) (#23)
    by diplomatic on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 05:52:26 PM EST
    Apparently Hillary's 3 a.m. ad, although widely paned by pundits and bloggers, helped move voters in her direction before Texas.  So I don't think we should assume too much about what that statistic means.  It could also be "important" in a negative way , as in the ad made them change their mind against a candidate and not for them.

    Parent
    Ad (none / 0) (#29)
    by AnninCA on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 05:58:45 PM EST
    I agree.  It doesn't tell us which ads were impressive.

    I'm too much in the tank for Hillary to judge that one.

    I LOVED her closing ad.

    Parent

    uh oh (none / 0) (#31)
    by cmugirl on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:01:03 PM EST
     Exit polls: New Dems break for Obama, late deciders for Clinton

    On CNN.com

    That's not really a surprise. (5.00 / 2) (#36)
    by rooge04 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:07:43 PM EST
    Dems for a Day are usually behind Obama. Hillary wins with registered and historical democrats.

    Parent
    On negative adds... (none / 0) (#35)
    by Stellaaa on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:07:26 PM EST
    Negative campaigns work!!...people complain but they love them.  

    Healthcare voters (none / 0) (#46)
    by allpeopleunite on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:25:01 PM EST
    14% voted on Healthcare, close to the 16% uninsured

    Unless there is a huge late-night swing (none / 0) (#49)
    by halstoon on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:27:54 PM EST
    from the "T" section of the state--and should those people count since it's the red part of PA?? /snark--it's looking like Obama blunted her momentum in PA. 52-48 would be a huge disappointment for Sen. Clinton, though unfortunately not enough to end the campaign.

    It'll be interesting to see what happens to her money situation in the next 2 weeks.

    The current exit poll info is suspect (none / 0) (#52)
    by andgarden on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:31:40 PM EST
    we'll know more in 30 minutes, and much more in a couple of hours.

    Parent
    Congrats to your camp on a big win. (none / 0) (#68)
    by halstoon on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 12:00:55 AM EST
    Now it's on to Indiana. Let's hope Obama gets his sh!t together.

    Parent
    Where Do You Get (none / 0) (#54)
    by BDB on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:32:50 PM EST
    52-48?

    I'm not saying it's wrong, it's certainly possible, but the exit polls seem all over the place.  Everything from an Obama win (which I'm not buying), to a close Clinton win, to a Clinton blowout.  So how do you get 52-48?

    Parent

    Drudge (none / 0) (#57)
    by Dave B on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:36:16 PM EST


    Parent
    also known as (none / 0) (#62)
    by echinopsia on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:49:16 PM EST
    pulledouttamy*ss.com

    Parent
    That would mean (none / 0) (#63)
    by badger on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:51:29 PM EST
    that after working the state hard for 6 weeks, outspending Hillary by 3 or 4 to 1, lots of ads, a debate, excessively favorable media treatment and front-runner status, Obama still loses.

    That should be an even bigger disappointment for Obama and his prospects.

    Even at that margin, it's still a loss - there is no "margin of error" to fall back on in an election.

    Parent

    Spoken like a true believer. (none / 0) (#67)
    by halstoon on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:59:23 PM EST
    Now we move on to Indiana. Enjoy the ride.


    Parent
    Don't Discount Healthcare So Fast (none / 0) (#50)
    by BackFromOhio on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:29:49 PM EST
    Since most polls require that you pick a single most important issue when you may think several issues are equally pressing, results to me are misleading.  In my mind, how do you separate Iraq War from the economy as an important issue -- hasn't our spending on Iraq contributed in a major way to economic woes?  And can't healthcare be viewed as a subcategory of the economy as an issue?  I get polled regularly, and there's never a way to say:  Iraq War, economy, healthcare, illegal wiretapping and tortune, e.g., are all very important issues -- one must pick.  

    20 minutes left. (none / 0) (#59)
    by eleanora on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:41:29 PM EST
    I took a break yesterday from blogs and polls and news because this whole thing was just getting to me. Six weeks is too long between primaries, argh. I've been praying hard all day, but it doesn't make the clock go faster :(

    I feel your pain (none / 0) (#65)
    by AnninCA on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:55:39 PM EST
    I'm now losing lunch buddies because they really aren't that interested in the "ins" and "outs" of this primary.  LOL*

    I swear.  After tonight, I vow to go back to normal.

    Parent

    Pennsylvania Exit Polls: Thread Three | 66 comments (66 topical)

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