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Pennsylvania Primary Results: Live Blog One

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:44:49 PM EST
Tags: Pennsylvania '08, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton (all tags)
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Big Tent Democrat and I will live blog the election results. We'll begin when the polls close and start new threads when comments reach 200 or so.

The live blog stays below the fold so that it can be a bit wider than the front page allows. Just click on the "There's More" button or bookmark the permalink to go directly to it.

If you experience scrolling issues, toggle the scroll button at the bottom of your screen.

Comment as with any other thread, in the space below.

< Obama Leaves Pennsylvania, Heads to Indiana | Pennsylvania Primary Results: Live Blog Two >

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    Pennsylvania Primary Results: Live Blog One | 234 comments (234 topical)

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    I'll be spending the night (5.00 / 3) (#1)
    by andgarden on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:48:15 PM EST
    at the CNN results page. Personally, I love their map--it makes me feel a bit like John King with the big board.

    My first big question of the night: who wins Montgomery County, and by how much?

    I'm going to say Clinton. (none / 0) (#27)
    by lilburro on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:56:18 PM EST
    Montgomery Co. has plenty of democrats, but the area itself is somewhat conservative, not huge activists.  Older, settled people.  I used to canvass there.  KOP, Pottstown, Norristown, Lafayette Hill, Upper Dublin...I see these as being more Clinton than Obama.  

    Parent
    I wonder about Jenkintown (none / 0) (#36)
    by andgarden on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:58:47 PM EST


    Parent
    Jenkintown... (none / 0) (#55)
    by lilburro on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:02:08 PM EST
    what I find weird about Montgomery County, is that it does have Democrats with money, but I don't think they are the typical "creative class" monied Democrats on the whole.  More of the professional type.  That's why I think Clinton might do better in Montgomery County.  But maybe I'm wrong.

    Parent
    canvassing in Montgomery Cty (none / 0) (#95)
    by Kensdad on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:11:52 PM EST
    i just canvassed for 4 straight weekends in montgomery county.  i don't see any way that obama can win there.

    Parent
    Per some guy at Kos who used gender extrapolation (none / 0) (#90)
    by magster on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:11:14 PM EST
    51 C 47 O

    He said this method was spot on in TX and OH.

    Parent

    Turnout (5.00 / 1) (#2)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:49:21 PM EST
    81% White, 14% A-A, 5% Other.

    58% Women (5.00 / 1) (#3)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:50:22 PM EST
    42% Men.

    Parent
    No undecideds? (none / 0) (#15)
    by frankly0 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:53:05 PM EST


    Parent
    Heh (none / 0) (#19)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:53:58 PM EST


    Parent
    demographically (none / 0) (#150)
    by boredmpa on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:29:17 PM EST
    Undecideds tend to cluster in CA...

    But anyway, the scientific term is Intersex.  And accepted definitions suggest 1% are intersex at birth, with .1-.2% attracting medical attention (altering/correction into a normative male/female category).

    Gender wise, undecideds prefer to be called gender queer or genderless as "undecided" implies a dichotomy they most don't believe in.

    And that's my story for today from SF.

    Parent

    sexuality is so fluid (none / 0) (#181)
    by Kathy on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:36:32 PM EST
    I prefer to just call us all human beings!

    (except for some republicans)

    Parent

    heh (none / 0) (#209)
    by boredmpa on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:47:47 PM EST
    but but we can't be polled easily if aren't categorized!  And how can we maintain group cohesion without groups!

    Parent
    fluids? (none / 0) (#229)
    by Salo on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 08:07:36 PM EST
    oh misread.

    Parent
    oh and (none / 0) (#183)
    by boredmpa on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:36:43 PM EST
    having done questionnaires in the queer community...these things come up as part of the survey process. Though I forget what we've gone with (depends on if you want to identify trans folk, intersex, etc)

    terminology soup.  and mine may not be accurate. im too lazy to keep up on PC terms.


    Parent

    27% of PA Voters ... (none / 0) (#22)
    by Robot Porter on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:55:14 PM EST
    over 65, according to CNN.

    Parent
    SUSA got race correct (none / 0) (#32)
    by phat on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:57:54 PM EST
    But age and Gender, not so much.

    Parent
    I mean, really close (none / 0) (#50)
    by phat on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:00:20 PM EST
    but not as close as race.

    Parent
    and according to fox 61 to Clinton (none / 0) (#108)
    by Salt on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:15:23 PM EST


    Parent
    same as ohio (none / 0) (#48)
    by Salt on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:00:09 PM EST


    Parent
    Fox saying Obama 92 of AA vote (none / 0) (#58)
    by Salt on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:02:52 PM EST


    Parent
    Big surprise. (5.00 / 1) (#160)
    by BrandingIron on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:32:15 PM EST

    And yet it's somehow "racist" for anyone to say that blacks are voting for Obama.  eyeroll

    Parent
    Is that a prediction or data? (none / 0) (#5)
    by andgarden on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:50:55 PM EST
    If it's the latter, SUSA gets its first gold star of the night.

    Parent
    Data (none / 0) (#9)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:51:58 PM EST
    Saw it scroll on MSNBC

    Parent
    Thanks (none / 0) (#12)
    by andgarden on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:52:27 PM EST


    Parent
    NO! (none / 0) (#6)
    by Kathy on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:50:57 PM EST
    14???  Wasn't it 17 for Kerry?  Wtfrack?

    Parent
    Maybe it means (none / 0) (#169)
    by BrandingIron on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:34:56 PM EST
    they got really p oed about the whole Wright issue exposing the way "black churches" are.  Maybe some of that "hope and change" was lost when they saw how the Wright thing exploded, or how Obama p oed the white voters with the whole clinging to guns and religion thing.

    Or maybe they didn't see any point int turning out for a losing cause (in the state).

    Parent

    Is that AA number (none / 0) (#14)
    by americanincanada on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:52:54 PM EST
    accurate?! That can't be right can it? What will that mean?

    Parent
    That's just how many they asked (5.00 / 1) (#42)
    by Cream City on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:59:34 PM EST
    and still to be adjusted by turnout data, I bet.

    Parent
    Exit poll number (none / 0) (#18)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:53:43 PM EST


    Parent
    what are the main (none / 0) (#17)
    by Turkana on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:53:39 PM EST
    "others" in pennsylvania?

    Parent
    I didn't know there were that many others (none / 0) (#23)
    by andgarden on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:55:27 PM EST
    but my best guess is hispanics in Philly and Reading.

    Parent
    how large (none / 0) (#26)
    by Turkana on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:56:10 PM EST
    is the asian population?

    Parent
    Very limited (5.00 / 1) (#28)
    by andgarden on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:56:58 PM EST
    A few here and there, mostly in Philly.

    Parent
    would that there were (none / 0) (#46)
    by Kathy on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:00:04 PM EST
    stealth asians scattered in key areas...

    Parent
    Not sure (5.00 / 2) (#39)
    by nell on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:59:00 PM EST
    but I talked to a volunteer who was covering Chinatown in Philadelphia and he said the turnout for Clinton in Chinatown was big and people were very enthusiastic about supporting her. That being said, I don't think the population is big enough to really make a dent.

    Parent
    Yay Chinatown! (none / 0) (#205)
    by Redstar on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:45:43 PM EST
    Love that Chinatown bus.  :)

    Parent
    All is black and white (5.00 / 2) (#69)
    by andrys on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:06:04 PM EST
    We golden ones don't exist in political minds  :-)

    Parent
    hey! (none / 0) (#88)
    by Turkana on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:10:59 PM EST
    great to see you! hope you got some traffic when i linked your takedown of the drudge rumor!

    Parent
    Yes, that did help (5.00 / 1) (#232)
    by andrys on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 08:31:45 PM EST
    Turkana, there was quite a bit of traffic on the photo in native garb, from your link and jawbone's.  Many thanks for all the eyes that got to see it wouldn't have been 'leaked' by Clinton, as Obama again told his audiences in Mississippi on March 10, in order to rile them up against her (while media calls him St. Francis or "too decent to go negative."  )

    (He did this after the debate in which he said he took her at her word and they were going put it in the past and go forward.)

      He also complained to the same crowds that she didn't defend him on 60 minutes and quoted that one clause that came after a question asked 3 times and which she followed by saying how she just did not like seeing anyone smeared by rumors because she knew what that was like.   It helped him with his crowds though to leave out her defenses, and that was all that mattered.  More unsettling is that this encouraged his crowds to hate her for what she was doing to him.  Mr. Unity struck again.

      I'm so happy about tonight's results.  

      - A forgotten golden  :-)   Even finely aged!

    Parent

    Golden ones....... (none / 0) (#118)
    by AnninCA on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:18:28 PM EST
    May I plagarize?

    That's classic.  Very good.

    Isn't that the truth?

    I bet you do feel pushed out this year,  Talk about irrelevant!

    Parent

    HRC loves gold.... (none / 0) (#152)
    by Shainzona on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:29:30 PM EST
    and black and brown and white and every color in the rainbow!

    Parent
    A Foucaultian construct. (none / 0) (#230)
    by Salo on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 08:08:35 PM EST
    The homosexual dystopian utopia?

    Parent
    Bar is lower than I thought (5.00 / 1) (#4)
    by ineedalife on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:50:23 PM EST
    Harold Ford just said an 8 point Hillary win should cause all the SDs to re-think. Joe Scarborough said 5-6.

    Nice to hear. (none / 0) (#10)
    by lansing quaker on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:52:13 PM EST
    It should, given the discrepencies of campaign spending between the two.

    Parent
    re-think (none / 0) (#13)
    by Turkana on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:52:29 PM EST
    what?

    Parent
    Their position (5.00 / 1) (#49)
    by ineedalife on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:00:15 PM EST
    Harold Ford, while stressing his neutrality, said that with that margin some Obama delegates may begin to re-think.

    Parent
    CNN: Decided Last Week - 58 C/42 O (5.00 / 2) (#8)
    by Lysis on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:51:36 PM EST
    CNN just flashed an exit poll:

    Voters Who Decided in the Last Week

    Clinton  58%
    Obama    42%

    yes...but were they bowlers? (none / 0) (#11)
    by Kathy on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:52:17 PM EST


    Parent
    bitter bowlers? (none / 0) (#25)
    by white n az on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:55:55 PM EST
    alliteration just glides off the tongue...

    Actually, CNN showed that gun owners and people who attend church regularly exit polled at 58/59% respectively in favor of Hillary...but sorry to say, they apparently didn't exit poll either bowlers or arugula lovers.

    Parent

    40% of PA voters are gun owners (none / 0) (#35)
    by Cream City on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:58:19 PM EST
    per an AP exit bowl.  I hope the bowlers are not the same people.  It could really destroy the ambience of the bowling alleys, if they start totin' guns along with their shoes, and if someone blows a natural strike. :-)

    Parent
    Russert is taking (none / 0) (#16)
    by bjorn on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:53:16 PM EST
    this one on and then adds women are what keep Obama from closing the deal!

    Parent
    pesky voters! (5.00 / 1) (#61)
    by Kathy on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:03:44 PM EST
    Why won't they let him win?!

    Parent
    now he is implying if (none / 0) (#20)
    by bjorn on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:54:10 PM EST
    Obama were white the white women would not have been as loyal to Clinton. What kind of crap is that?

    Parent
    Even worse, Russert and Olbermann (5.00 / 2) (#60)
    by andrys on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:03:34 PM EST
    ... they actually said that perhaps Obama should choose another WOMAN for running mate and would that satisfy the white (hmmmm, I'm not white) women who so strongly support her.

      What an incredibly dense thought -- that the support is because or only because she's a woman, and that any other woman might be able to do the trick and get Clinton's base of supporters!  It was stunning to me that they are quite this thick.  

      It doesn't occur to them that her support comes because she is so extremely smart, fluent about the issues because she CARES about the problems that much and has a zillion ideas on how to fix them and is ready to go.  

      Her experience as a senator has shown someone who can turn her enemies around and work with them on joint projects.  Something Obama only says he would be able to do.

      Night of New Hampshire I was hoping Edwards and Obama would knock Clinton out of the race as I never wanted to hear the dramas of the Clintons again, but when I heard her speak about many issues, that turned me around completely - and it was helped by Obama NOT talking about the issues but making the same slick stump speech for all these months.

      He stumbles and halts when asked about issues because, really, he has not thought much about them.  He can talk well if it's on something he cares about, but they're not issues, only on wanting to make change -- or to promise a list of about 21 costly things for all of us while saying he would never pander as other politicans do ( ! )

    Parent

    Maybe (5.00 / 3) (#67)
    by chrisvee on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:05:53 PM EST
    They could just transplant someone else's head on Senator Clinton's body. Would that solve the 'obstinate older white woman' problem?

    Parent
    Women (none / 0) (#188)
    by AnninCA on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:38:24 PM EST
    aren't Obama's biggest problem.

    It is the older Dems.  Wave bye!  And pray those college kids remember next Fall when election day is.  :)

    Parent

    Class, more than race or gender (none / 0) (#214)
    by Cream City on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:50:37 PM EST
    decided early primaries, per a pollster.com analysis -- perhaps primaries since, too, since the analysis.

    Parent
    Yes, we're just interchangeable body parts (5.00 / 5) (#70)
    by Cream City on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:06:51 PM EST
    as I noted on another thread about this.  It was an astonishingly stoopid discussion, but that's KO and the Boiz.

    I dated guys like this.  Once.  So as noted on the other thread, sing along with me: Mothers, don't let your daughters date MSNBC commentators.  The creeps.

    Parent

    As I said before, I think Hillary should just (5.00 / 2) (#151)
    by derridog on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:29:28 PM EST
    choose another black man as her VP.  That should work just as well, right?

    Parent
    Saw that, loved it, and how I wish (none / 0) (#159)
    by Cream City on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:32:05 PM EST
    I could send it from your magic typing fingers to their insensitive ears!

    Parent
    I'd love Harold Ford as running mate BUT (none / 0) (#233)
    by andrys on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 08:57:55 PM EST
    he's short of experience, alas.  SO sensible though and rational and totally natural, unlike most politicians...

    Parent
    Obama supporters often say (none / 0) (#77)
    by Josey on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:08:32 PM EST
    they want Obama to choose a woman VP to appease angry Hillary supporters.
    Crass and divisive remark!

    Parent
    Yeah (5.00 / 1) (#93)
    by chrisvee on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:11:41 PM EST
    That's a winning strategy, I'm sure.  MSNBC is striking out tonight (again).

    Parent
    like women are (5.00 / 1) (#97)
    by bjorn on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:12:36 PM EST
    completely interchangeable, and women will support any woman????

    Parent
    As if that's why (5.00 / 1) (#123)
    by pie on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:22:16 PM EST
    I would vote for her.

    SHE'S THE MORE QUALIFIED CANDIDATE!!!

    Sorry for shouting.  :-)

    Parent

    Well that settles it (none / 0) (#112)
    by phat on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:16:49 PM EST
    He should pick Condoleeza Rice.

    Parent
    oh... (none / 0) (#224)
    by Oje on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:55:24 PM EST
    I can't wait to sign the American Progress / Eschaton / DailyKos / TPM media criticism petition for the unabashedly racist and sexist coverage of the Pennsylvania results!

    And, great capture of Obama network / blog punditry.

    Parent

    Tim is an a-hole. (none / 0) (#29)
    by Marco21 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:57:06 PM EST
    I stand by that. Not implying a thing.

    Parent
    I heard that and changed the channel (none / 0) (#33)
    by TalkRight on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:57:57 PM EST
    I wonder if he asks, AA is the one that are keep HIllary from closing the deal... if she was an AA she would not had a problem and would had closed the deal long time back..

    Parent
    Also (none / 0) (#63)
    by chrisvee on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:04:45 PM EST
    Russert says that if Clinton were a man, Obama would be the nominee already.

    I don't get how with these exit polls how it's too close to call.

    Parent

    Exit polls aren't turnout data (5.00 / 2) (#79)
    by Cream City on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:08:36 PM EST
    and have to be adjusted when that hard data starts to come in . . . and exit polls will keep being adjusted as more data comes in . . . and that's why we went nuts, not knowing this, in 2000 when the exit polls were adjusted after the fact.

    They're always adjusted after the facts.:-)

    Parent

    Huh. (5.00 / 1) (#103)
    by Iphie on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:14:28 PM EST
    Well that's an interesting thought from Russert -- I wonder if this means he thinks that if Obama were white that Hillary would be the nominee already. That he could say that after the Ferraro contretemps is just astonishing. Complete and total lack of self-awareness.

    Parent
    if Clinton were a man (none / 0) (#116)
    by kimsaw on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:17:39 PM EST
    Obama wouldn't stand a chance.

    Parent
    if Clinton were a man (none / 0) (#119)
    by Kathy on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:19:59 PM EST
    Obama would have waited eight years for his turn.

    Parent
    I'm SO glad I'm not watching this (none / 0) (#132)
    by nycstray on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:24:49 PM EST
    is it REALLY 2008 and this is all the farther we've come?

    Parent
    Ouch. (none / 0) (#193)
    by pie on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:40:53 PM EST
    You're right, of course.

    Parent
    You hit that nail on the head (none / 0) (#206)
    by ruffian on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:46:12 PM EST


    Parent
    That's because we white women are racists. (none / 0) (#147)
    by derridog on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:28:11 PM EST


    Parent
    Damn Us! (none / 0) (#135)
    by goldberry on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:24:58 PM EST
    Why won't we just go away and leave them to their own games?  

    Parent
    Yeah. Well I hope we can keep on doing that. (none / 0) (#143)
    by derridog on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:27:19 PM EST
    I live in NC.

    Parent
    They really shouldn't (none / 0) (#162)
    by leis on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:32:43 PM EST
    have given us the right to vote. Who would have believed we'd actually use it the way we see fit?

    Parent
    Those women voters (none / 0) (#154)
    by litigatormom on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:30:36 PM EST
    They are so loyal, so dedicated, there is nothing that can peel them away.

    I'm not sure whether I heard Tweety or Timmeh utter these words, with a tone of absolute disgust in his voice.

    Parent

    They noticed... (5.00 / 7) (#21)
    by Stellaaa on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:54:19 PM EST
    women, matter.  Imagine that.  

    that's just crazy talk (5.00 / 2) (#38)
    by Kathy on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:58:56 PM EST
    would someone please shoot Roland Martin?  Thank you.

    Parent
    Thanks for live blogging. (5.00 / 4) (#30)
    by Maria Garcia on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:57:10 PM EST
    Can't watch. Obama supporting spouse sitting next to me on the couch watching basketball. We are pretending not to care. Shhhh.

    LOL* (5.00 / 1) (#41)
    by AnninCA on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:59:17 PM EST
    Marcia......I think TOU should write about how this has affected your life personally.

    What a great story.

    Obama versus Clinton in a marriage.

    I love it.

    Parent

    We only had one fight about it... (5.00 / 1) (#54)
    by Maria Garcia on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:02:05 PM EST
    ...it helps he's not a Clinton hater.

    Parent
    Ha...I'll only say that (none / 0) (#44)
    by Teresa on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:59:52 PM EST
    personally, I divorced my Republican husband. :)

    I'd have to whop this one on the head but he loves Hillary.

    Parent

    My Republican Husband (5.00 / 1) (#133)
    by honora on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:24:54 PM EST
    In Maryland, being a Republican during the primaries is no fun so my Republican husband (he really does have other redeeming traits) is registered as a Democrat.  He happily voted for Hillary in the primary.  He honestly believes that she is better. Now, in the general he will vote for McCain, but Hillary will not need his vote then.  So it may be better to have a Republican husband than a Democratic husband that likes Obama.

    Parent
    Look for (none / 0) (#153)
    by AnninCA on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:30:23 PM EST
    Redbook articles about how the primary affected the sex lives of couples this year.  :)

    Parent
    Democrats... (none / 0) (#164)
    by white n az on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:33:37 PM EST
    have sex lives?

    Who knew?

    Parent

    remember when Coulter said (5.00 / 1) (#192)
    by Kathy on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:39:46 PM EST
    dems have joyless sex?  And all I could think was, "maybe when they have it with you, lady."

    Speaking of crazy things...blink-blink-blink...does CNN have a pie chart showing how close Clinton and Obama really are?

    Parent

    Dems (none / 0) (#197)
    by AnninCA on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:43:47 PM EST
    have great sex lives even when they aren't married. Big Wink

    Parent
    Look for (none / 0) (#155)
    by AnninCA on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:30:52 PM EST
    Redbook articles about how the primary affected the sex lives of couples this year.  :)

    Parent
    Rush Limbaugh... (none / 0) (#158)
    by white n az on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:32:03 PM EST
    would be oh so proud of him...

    Parent
    Me either- (none / 0) (#84)
    by magisterludi on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:09:40 PM EST
    Click and Clack from Car Talk are on PBS about cars of the future.


    Parent
    they're not (none / 0) (#122)
    by Nasarius on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:22:05 PM EST
    Covering the election? Because that would be worth watching.

    Parent
    Yes. I would love to hear Click and Clack's views (none / 0) (#172)
    by derridog on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:35:14 PM EST
    on the election. It would cheer us all up to laugh a little bit right now.

    Parent
    The CNN exits show Hillary a couple of points (5.00 / 2) (#53)
    by andgarden on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:01:57 PM EST
    above 50%. This is closer than I expected.

    52-48 per CNN exits (5.00 / 2) (#56)
    by DaveOinSF on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:02:15 PM EST
    CNN exits also had Rhode Island tied....FWIW

    Thank God BTD knows (5.00 / 1) (#71)
    by bjorn on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:07:24 PM EST
    all the facts of previous calls. They need you on MSNBC for commentary.  

    i just calculated and posted that gender result (5.00 / 2) (#75)
    by Turkana on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:08:07 PM EST
    clinton by 51.6-47.8, which would not be good for her. but big grain of salt, as btd indicates.

    Did anyone (5.00 / 2) (#76)
    by Iphie on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:08:29 PM EST
    catch Donna Brazile on CNN awhile ago saying that she was still undecided? She sees no reason to get off the sidelines and make a choice at this point. She says that she's pretty sure in her heart of hearts, but is still conflicted.

    If this is what she's like when she's conflicted, imagine what she'll be like when she chooses a side.

    Hmmm... (5.00 / 2) (#91)
    by Kathy on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:11:26 PM EST
    CNN asking why he can't close the deal.

    I just saw that! (none / 0) (#102)
    by eleanora on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:14:17 PM EST
    If we get some actual fair commentary on this tonight, I'll be happy. Doesn't have to be HRC slanted, just even-handed.

    Parent
    I am getting the least (5.00 / 1) (#189)
    by rooge04 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:38:28 PM EST
    upset watching Fox.  It's BIZARRE. They're honestly talking about them BOTH fairly.  

    Parent
    I've never watched Fox (none / 0) (#196)
    by eleanora on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:43:21 PM EST
    in my life, but I'm desperate :)

    Parent
    exit polls are wrong (5.00 / 1) (#104)
    by tnjen on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:14:41 PM EST
    These exit polls are way off.

    There's no way that 69% of the electorate is college educated.

    Well, yeah, it can be.. (none / 0) (#228)
    by FlaDemFem on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 08:02:53 PM EST
    in PA there are lots of community colleges as well as private colleges and of course the state universities. If someone is asked if they are college educated and they have ever taken a single course in anything at any college or university, they can legitimately say yes, they are college educated. And after the "bitter and clinging" remarks, I am pretty sure than anyone in PA who has any claim on any sort of higher education is saying YES!! to that question. College-educated doesn't mean a degree to many people. It means some education at a college. And yes, lots of Pennsylvanians have that.

    Parent
    Sidebar. (5.00 / 1) (#111)
    by lansing quaker on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:16:29 PM EST
    I love CNN.com's Reggie Aqui and Melissa Long.  I hope they make the bigtimes.

    I just think my gay bias is making me love Reggie.

    I need results, in other news.

    How many think (5.00 / 1) (#120)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:20:00 PM EST
    They 're saying the race is too close to call just for ratings....

    KO doesn't even consider that Hillary (5.00 / 1) (#124)
    by Teresa on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:22:30 PM EST
    might be change, too?

    MSNBC had a discussion of what (5.00 / 2) (#146)
    by ruffian on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:28:02 PM EST
    Obama has to do to win over white women over 50.  They think another female VP selection (not Hillary) might do it.  Does anyone else find that really insulting?  How much of it is about her being a woman?  For me, you can't slot in Kathleen Sibelius and expect me to get excited.

    Ridiculous (none / 0) (#157)
    by stillife on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:31:39 PM EST
    We white women over 50 will not be appeased!

    Parent
    Unappeasable (5.00 / 1) (#211)
    by AnninCA on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:49:07 PM EST
    Your post made me chuckle.

    Want to locate the group in America who cannot be spun?

    It's women in their 50's.

    We have sooooooooooo heard every line, had every guilt trip put on us, and it just won't work anymore.

    Suit up and show up, buddy...or kiss it goodbye.  

    grrrr

    LOL

    Parent

    Maybe they can rub up against (none / 0) (#161)
    by Kathy on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:32:39 PM EST
    the cell phone he keeps in his pocket?

    Did anyone see Newsweek quoted that?  There's no way they thought it'd be interpreted as a "Jesus, what a creep!" moment, but I had two different friends call me and independently say, "BLEH."

    Parent

    They'd better not even think about it. (none / 0) (#165)
    by Teresa on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:33:41 PM EST
    A women VP to make up for Hillary would be the last slap to my face that I'll take.

    Parent
    holy crap (5.00 / 1) (#149)
    by Kathy on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:28:58 PM EST
    CNN nailing the Wright thing!  Wow, there's some real anger there.

    Brazile saying that about Hagee is just laughable.  And that, "we shouldn't look at who they're friends with crap"--gimme a break.

    MSNBC said late deciders went 60-40 for Hillary (5.00 / 1) (#163)
    by ruffian on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:32:54 PM EST
    but I don't remember if they said what % of total were late deciders

    17 percent... (5.00 / 1) (#176)
    by Dawn Davenport on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:35:34 PM EST
    ...decided in the last 3 days; 83 percent before that.

    Parent
    that was CNN (none / 0) (#182)
    by Dawn Davenport on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:36:39 PM EST
    that I cited, btw.

    Parent
    Late deciders (none / 0) (#186)
    by cymro on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:37:47 PM EST
    I think it was 17% in the last week, 10% today.

    Parent
    OK -- last 3 days, not the last week (none / 0) (#190)
    by cymro on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:38:59 PM EST


    Parent
    Late deciders 18% (none / 0) (#187)
    by caseyOR on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:38:20 PM EST
    George Stephanopolous just told me late deciders were 18%.

    Parent
    Fox called for Hillary (5.00 / 1) (#200)
    by Salt on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:45:23 PM EST


    I'm here with a big bottle of wine... (none / 0) (#7)
    by lansing quaker on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:51:03 PM EST
    ... ready for nothing but results!  Look forward to your commentary, BTD and Jeralyn! <3

    Ooh, good idea! (none / 0) (#81)
    by waldenpond on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:09:17 PM EST


    Parent
    Bourbon pours at 5:00 (none / 0) (#24)
    by caseyOR on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:55:31 PM EST
    It is now 5 pm in Oregon, so the bourbon has been poured. Let the results begin.

    Bourbon? (none / 0) (#34)
    by AnninCA on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:58:00 PM EST
    That's a Southern drink, girl.

    Parent
    Politics drink (5.00 / 1) (#47)
    by caseyOR on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:00:05 PM EST
    I was raised up in central Illinois. The drink of democratic politicos in the childhood was always bourbon. So, I bring it out for all political events.

    Parent
    Bourbon (none / 0) (#65)
    by AnninCA on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:05:09 PM EST
    That's interesting.  I have so enjoyed learning these little bits of information about various parts of the country.

    I was married to a guy from Gridley, Illinois.

    But....Bourbon was the drink of my parents who were raised in the mid-west and settled in Arkansas.

    (I can't even stand the smell, frankly.)

    I click my glass of Chardannay.......CA gal here......

    Here we go!

    Parent

    I started out drinking Scotch (none / 0) (#78)
    by gyrfalcon on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:08:33 PM EST
    then got involved in state politics and was firmly told Scotch was a Republican drink, and Bourbon (being American-made) was the Dem. drink, so I switched.  Is that silly or what!

    Parent
    easier... (5.00 / 1) (#87)
    by white n az on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:10:44 PM EST
    than changing political parties I would expect

    Parent
    Bourbon (none / 0) (#92)
    by AnninCA on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:11:35 PM EST
    Well, I'll be darned. My parents were most definitely Dems.

    I had no idea that their alcoholism was related to their politics.  LOL*

    Parent

    Works for me. Scotch tastes like medicine. (none / 0) (#98)
    by caseyOR on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:12:55 PM EST


    Parent
    mmm... (none / 0) (#113)
    by Kathy on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:17:08 PM EST
    my dad used to make cough medicine for us using scotch and sugar.  

    We got sick a LOT.

    Parent

    Usually, my dad and my uncles (none / 0) (#86)
    by caseyOR on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:10:29 PM EST
    drank beer, and my mom and my aunts drank whiskey. As a kid I thought I would grow up to be a whiskey drinker 'cause I'm a girl. And so I did. Although a nice Oregon pinot is almost always appropriate.

    For my political drinking, however, I draw the line at cigars.

    Parent

    Xanax works better (none / 0) (#43)
    by Stellaaa on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:59:46 PM EST
     

    Parent
    I decided to be multi-culti (none / 0) (#231)
    by echinopsia on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 08:23:18 PM EST
    and drink sake tonight. For the golden ones.

    Parent
    can't wait (none / 0) (#31)
    by tnjen on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:57:21 PM EST
    gah I'm nervous

    Sad (none / 0) (#37)
    by Sunshine on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:58:55 PM EST
    Just tuned in to MSNBC and it looks like they are attending a funeral....

    Heh (none / 0) (#40)
    by Steve M on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:59:07 PM EST
    I can't believe my wife hasn't mentioned the primary yet!  I'm going to refrain from reminding her until I see if the news is good or bad.

    BTW...Donna Brazille admitted... (none / 0) (#45)
    by white n az on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:59:57 PM EST
    that she made up her mind but won't say who she favors.

    oh, please! Won't she please please tell us?! (5.00 / 2) (#51)
    by Kathy on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:01:02 PM EST


    Parent
    Donna (5.00 / 1) (#85)
    by AnninCA on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:09:48 PM EST
    is a loose cannon. Someone should muzzle her or, better yet, make her travel with Bill.  :)

    Parent
    ya I heard that and I wondered why CNN would still (5.00 / 1) (#101)
    by TalkRight on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:13:59 PM EST
    keep her as unbiased analyst

    Parent
    yeah right (none / 0) (#52)
    by bjorn on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:01:30 PM EST
    She has dropped way down there for me.

    Parent
    Gee WhiZ! (none / 0) (#126)
    by wasabi on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:23:14 PM EST
    I'm wondering who Donna is going for?  

    The suspense is killing me.

    Parent

    Russert needs to shut up (none / 0) (#57)
    by bjorn on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:02:46 PM EST


    NBC is very happy.. you can see the cheers on (none / 0) (#59)
    by TalkRight on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:02:54 PM EST
    TIM RUssert, Keith, and Chris!!

    Yeah, they are way (5.00 / 1) (#62)
    by bjorn on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:04:07 PM EST
    to happy!

    Parent
    I am too nervous (5.00 / 1) (#68)
    by TalkRight on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:06:03 PM EST
    crossing my fingers :)

    Parent
    Complete CNN exit polls have been posted... (none / 0) (#64)
    by Dawn Davenport on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:04:58 PM EST
    here.

    she wins all the age group for White !! (none / 0) (#96)
    by TalkRight on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:12:06 PM EST
    that is big?

    Parent
    I'd think so... (5.00 / 1) (#115)
    by Dawn Davenport on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:17:36 PM EST
    ...she also sweeps the Catholic vote.

    Also interesting are the age breakdowns for voters:

    10 percent were 18-29
    17 percent were 30-44
    35 percent were 44-59
    38 percent were 60+

    Parent

    MSNBC-Big breaking news: Too close to call (none / 0) (#66)
    by jawbone on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:05:22 PM EST
    Tom Brokaw now saying Clinton adviser said they need 10%, TB asked if it was about money and adviser said yes.

    Timmeh had some lines about one scenario was blow out by Clinton, but not yet! It was dumb.

    TB still talking about need for money by Clinton--no money, no going forward.

    But the Locker Room Boys do not look happy, esply Tweets.

    HRC has three times as much for the GE (5.00 / 1) (#109)
    by Cream City on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:15:49 PM EST
    with $24 million to BO's $8 million, but they never say that, do they?

    I think the party officials have to think about how much it costs for BO to win -- can he keep coming up with enough for what it would take to win a GE?

    Parent

    Some pundit said money is a renewable (none / 0) (#130)
    by jawbone on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:24:08 PM EST
    resource for Obama. Will just keep rolling in.

    (Except when it doesn't.)

    Parent

    Tweets looks either unhappy or just very tired-- (none / 0) (#72)
    by jawbone on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:07:45 PM EST
    What is it? They're happy? Timmy looking pretty up...and they're talking about her exiting graciously--unless she wins big.

    Sheesh. Time to leave them alone until more results are in.

    Also talking about how Obama can't be too nasty. Huh?

    Bloviating.

    Parent

    Kkkarl Rove (none / 0) (#73)
    by stillife on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:07:46 PM EST
    on Fox says that Clinton may end up with fewer delegates from PA even if she wins.

    How can one exit poll say she won men (none / 0) (#74)
    by Teresa on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:07:59 PM EST
    and a new one say she lost them? New data added since one hour ago?

    People lie. (5.00 / 1) (#83)
    by Kathy on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:09:35 PM EST


    Parent
    Nevermind. The first one was white men only (none / 0) (#80)
    by Teresa on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:08:59 PM EST


    Parent
    after (none / 0) (#82)
    by telaensarto on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:09:35 PM EST
    seeing much of the data coming from the exit polls, i guess that we can say that Hillary is gonna be on double digits,opinions?

    Jerome at mydd-- (none / 0) (#106)
    by jawbone on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:15:01 PM EST
    Given the CNN exit poll numbers on white voters (55-45 for Clinton) and Older voters, we can conclude that Clinton is not going to get a double-digit blowout victory. CNN has just announced that it is not projecting a winner based on the exit polls.

    Drat, drat, drat, drat.

    Parent

    92% AA 45% white (none / 0) (#191)
    by waldenpond on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:39:39 PM EST
    ummm I would need to check my math, but if Obama gets 92% of the AA vote and 45% of the white vote, he wins.  I think the 45% is the white MALE vote.  She should have a larger split for wimmin'

    Parent
    My husband switched to (none / 0) (#89)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:11:13 PM EST
    CNBC, saw Twitty, Doh!Berman and the gang, and was laughing his bodypart off.  I said, WHAT!?.

    He said, "someone must have seriously p**sed THEIR cheerios!"

    Gotta love it.

    92% of the Black vote... (none / 0) (#94)
    by citizen53 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:11:51 PM EST
    and we are supposed to believe that this is anything but voting with the sole criteria of race?

    I find this very troubling.

    Identity politics (5.00 / 0) (#105)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:15:00 PM EST
    is a big deal in this race.  You can't blame people for that.

    It's part of my reason for supporting Hillary....not a HUGE part, but part.  So if AA's want an AA pres, well, I can relate.

    Parent

    As you said, it is a PART... (none / 0) (#121)
    by citizen53 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:20:39 PM EST
    for you, as it should be, but 92% indicates much more than a part.

    I saw this comment in Black Agenda Report:

    The thing that bothers a lot of us older black people about this campaign is that there seems to be this attitude among a lot of blacks but especially younger black people that any black man is better than any white man/person.
    That may or may not be true, but the problem is that to choose a candidate using only that criteria is to give that black man the power to screw you with no grease, if he so chooses.

    I'm no fan of Tavis Smiley, but no one should face threats and insults because of their stated preference for president.

    Black people fought for and won the right to vote for their choice like any other American, not to vote for the guy everybody else is voting for.
    To lose sight of that is to diminish the legacy of those who stuggled and suffered so long and hard to bring us to the point where our votes matter.



    Parent
    Reverse Bradley effect (none / 0) (#110)
    by Kensdad on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:16:11 PM EST
    i've been in PA for 4 weekends in a row and i want to say that there is no possible way that the african american vote was 92-8...  there is absolutely a reverse Bradley effect here.  African americans who support Hillary are telling people that they support Obama (and that includes exit pollers)...  i guarantee this!

    Parent
    What makes you think so? (none / 0) (#131)
    by nell on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:24:14 PM EST


    Parent
    Probably both that (none / 0) (#114)
    by eleanora on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:17:28 PM EST
    they like him better and that he would be breaking an amazing barrier for AA's in this country. I understand how they feel. I'd vote Hillary anyway, because I like her positions, like her record, and trust her on the issues that matter most to me and my family, but breaking that glass ceiling would be amazing for women in the US and around the world. Maybe race or gender just tips the balance.

    Parent
    They were almost as much Dem as that (none / 0) (#117)
    by Cream City on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:17:50 PM EST
    in earlier elections, well above 80% and even 90%, from what I've seen.  So it's as much about being Dems as it is about being AA, it seems.

    Parent
    This is a Democratic election... (none / 0) (#142)
    by citizen53 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:27:04 PM EST
    and I could understand if it was against a Republican.  Then they would be voting their interests, which cannot necessarily be said here with any certainty.

    Parent
    Lou Dobs (none / 0) (#99)
    by hopeyfix on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:13:04 PM EST
    Am I being naive, delirious, or that single sip I took of my themed beer for tonight (Rolling Rock) hit me hard... I am under the impression Lou Dobs outed Gloria Borger as a Hillary supporter about 20 minutes ago. He also joked about Rolland Marting being a Obama supporter (no surprise, after his passionate defense during the Wright gate).

    Roland yes (none / 0) (#198)
    by waldenpond on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:43:49 PM EST
    Borger absolutely not.  Watch her.  She gets very adamant about her issues with Clinton... she grimaces and eyebrows go up.  NOT a Clinton supporter.

    Parent
    Republican shenanigans (none / 0) (#100)
    by DaveOinSF on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:13:35 PM EST
    6% of the electorate was Republicans who reregistered.  Obam won that group 55-40.  Once again, Republicans trying to game the Democratic primary.

    It doesn't matter (5.00 / 5) (#107)
    by Steve M on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:15:09 PM EST
    We still will never hear the end of "Hillary only wins because of Limbaugh crossovers!" arguments.

    As TL regulars know, when Republicans vote for Obama it's because they genuinely believe he's the right candidate for America, but when Republicans vote for Clinton it's because they want to screw with the election.  No other conclusion is worth considering.

    Parent

    10 pt spread with white men (none / 0) (#125)
    by waldenpond on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:23:01 PM EST
    won't make a huge difference? If O is getting 92% of the AA vote and a 20 pt spread on the white vote means C/O 60/40.... split the others, doesn't that equal....

    81/5/14 White/other/aa  .4/.5/.92....... 3 pts?

    Doesn't Obama's white support need to drop to 35% for Clinton to get close to 10 pts?

    Why are raw vote totals ... (none / 0) (#127)
    by Robot Porter on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:23:32 PM EST
    taking so long to come in?

    How long did it take them to call Ohio? (none / 0) (#128)
    by Faust on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:23:32 PM EST


    atrios (none / 0) (#129)
    by disappointed on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:23:55 PM EST
    Does anyone know why eschaton/atrios came out for Obama.  He said it could have been different at the outset of their campaigning.  Or, perhaps he is another who was just pretending to give Clinton a chance.????  

    you should cut him slack (5.00 / 1) (#148)
    by white n az on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:28:37 PM EST
    he hasn't turned his site into a 527 like HuffPo or DailyKos

    He's been eminently fair

    I feel fine about him telling us this morning that he voted for Obama - what's the big deal here?

    Parent

    I suspect (none / 0) (#168)
    by Steve M on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:34:43 PM EST
    that he is like BTD, not real thrilled about either candidate, and more interested in Democrats winning in November.

    Parent
    Amen! (none / 0) (#194)
    by AnninCA on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:41:00 PM EST
    Talk about blowing a good deal.

    I was a Hillary supporter who still gave the Huff site it's headlines.  Who cares....so long as the articles linked were the legitimate deal.

    Since she blew it for Obama with bittergate?

    Omigod......

    That is a trashed site.

    Parent

    Your second choice (none / 0) (#138)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:26:05 PM EST
    is spot on.  He's been for Obama since the beginning of the year.  He thought he was sneaky about it, but really wasn't at all.

    Parent
    Didn't see any reasons--just that at one point (none / 0) (#141)
    by jawbone on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:26:34 PM EST
    Atrios could have gone either way.

    Seemed pretty obvious for quite awhile where he was heading.  And he was in the right demographic.

    Parent

    Atrios was fair (none / 0) (#178)
    by pie on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:35:43 PM EST
    about this.

    Other bloggers, not so much.

    It was some of the commenters that made it vile over there.

    Parent

    The Why can't he close is an excellent bot bite (none / 0) (#134)
    by Salt on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:24:58 PM EST
    what happened did she hire her own former newspaper editor finally?

    Isn't this big? from exit poll (none / 0) (#136)
    by TalkRight on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:25:23 PM EST
    Clinton won every white demographic, including whites aged 18-29 -- a group Obama won in Ohio -- for an overall 60% to 40% edge among whites. Obama won African-Americans 92% to 8%.

    Catholic/Weekly (18%) wins by 75%-25%      
    Catholic/Less Often (17%) wins by 63%-37

    BTD sez (none / 0) (#137)
    by andgarden on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:25:53 PM EST
    24 minutes in and not a single vote counted. Hard to believe.
    We're old, stuff moves slowly in PA!

    Blecch (none / 0) (#139)
    by stillife on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:26:23 PM EST
    Donna Brazile says Barack "just came down from the stratosphere" but everybody still loves him.  Nobody cares about issues of past associations.

    Cnn should give an option so that I can mute (none / 0) (#140)
    by TalkRight on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:26:31 PM EST
    Donna Brazile

    We have the technology (none / 0) (#213)
    by ruffian on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:50:11 PM EST


    Parent
    Useful info from pollster.com re data now (none / 0) (#144)
    by Cream City on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:27:38 PM EST
    The stoopid Drudge, et al., data of a 52% Clinton, 48% Obama breakdown simply is based on interviews received just before the polls closed -- who they asked, not how many of each turned out.  

    And why exit poll data keeps changing until, voila!, it's remarkably accurate at the end:  "It's worth remembering that this initial update is almost always based on what exit pollsters call the 'composite' estimate (an average of the exit poll tallies and pre-election polls. Subsequent updates will add in more exit poll interviews being phoned in now, constantly improving estimates of the turnout by the exit poll 'geostrata' and, gradually actual vote for the sampled precincts. Also very important to keep in mind: The as-the-polls-close estimate for Ohio also had Clinton leading by four points."

    Pollster.com is live-blogging exit polling, a fun read whilst we wait. . . .

    BTD, for once, I hope FOX is right. (none / 0) (#145)
    by Teresa on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:28:01 PM EST


    Well, (none / 0) (#156)
    by andgarden on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:31:16 PM EST
    my recollection is that the first posted results out of Ohio (after the polls closed) showed Hillary with a comfortable lead, though a little bit lower than the actual result.

    Your memory is faulty (none / 0) (#166)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:33:51 PM EST
    Ohio was not called until 80% of the precincts had reported.

    Parent
    I remember doing the math (none / 0) (#170)
    by andgarden on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:35:01 PM EST
    on the gender numbers just after the exit poll closed. They showed Hillary ahead.

    Parent
    But (none / 0) (#173)
    by nell on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:35:18 PM EST
    Ohio was a little bit different because the results from cities did not come in until the end since Obama's campaign got the polling places there kept open...in contrast, we are expecting numbers first from Philadelphia...

    Parent
    Does anybody else think (none / 0) (#167)
    by stillife on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:34:26 PM EST
    they're holding back on the results b/c Hillary is winning?

    Too early to call (none / 0) (#171)
    by ruffian on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:35:04 PM EST
    Msnbc is not saying 'too early to call' as opposed to 'too close to call'

    which makes a lot more sense to me

    MSNBC now too early (none / 0) (#174)
    by bjorn on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:35:22 PM EST
    to call, not to close to call.

    Too early to call (none / 0) (#175)
    by ruffian on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:35:30 PM EST
    Msnbc is now saying 'too early to call' as opposed to 'too close to call'

    which makes a lot more sense to me

    MSNBC grudgingly admits, after half an hour (none / 0) (#177)
    by Cream City on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:35:40 PM EST
    that Clinton may have won -- no longer "too close to call" but now "too early to call."  Switching channels. . . .   Oh, wait, Buchanan is up -- he's so wrong on so much but very savvy on nights like tonight.

    Finally talk about popular vote is getting popular (none / 0) (#179)
    by TalkRight on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:35:58 PM EST
    on cable.. right now CNN/wolf with King.

    Philly is sky blue on CNN's map (none / 0) (#180)
    by andgarden on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:36:31 PM EST
    that will last for about five seconds, and I assume that the white wards are coming in first.

    CNN is counting Florida in (none / 0) (#184)
    by bjorn on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:37:09 PM EST
    total vote, cool!

    I guess I'm sticking with Fox (none / 0) (#185)
    by stillife on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:37:40 PM EST
    They say they don't trust their exit poll figures - they don't say why.  But based on that, they're talking 6% Hillary lead but they don't seem to rule out a higher lead.

    Oh, finally some real figures 1% of the vote, Hillary 67, Obama 33.

    Clinton does very well (none / 0) (#195)
    by lilburro on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:41:55 PM EST
    with Catholics again.  Trying to see if it's comparable with her RI margin.

    Looks like it (none / 0) (#210)
    by lilburro on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:48:39 PM EST
    best sources I could find were articles, including this:

    "Clinton received 63 percent of the Catholic vote in Ohio and more than 60 percent in Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New York and California"

    and this:

    "Catholics could make up more than one-third of the vote in the Keystone State on April 22, and Mrs. Clinton's victories in Ohio, Texas, and Rhode Island on Tuesday made clear that despite a stepped-up effort in recent weeks, Mr. Obama has failed to narrow her edge with that demographic."

    Catholics are my favorite voting bloc.  I'm not Catholic but I really find Catholics fascinating!

    PA Catholic vote:
    Clinton/Obama

    Catholic/Weekly (17%) 71% 28%              
    Catholic/Less Often (18%) 65% 35%


    Parent

    "Too early to call" (none / 0) (#199)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:44:02 PM EST
    Translated that means "we want you to keep watching".

    If Hillary wins I have the same question for Obama (none / 0) (#201)
    by TalkRight on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:45:24 PM EST
    Jake Tapper asks a very provocative question, especially since it comes well before Pennsylvania is settled:

        ... .. But what's so crazy about the idea that the Democratic frontrunner -- flush with cash and outspending Clinton 3-to-1, running against a candidate with such high unfavorable ratings -- should be able to win a blue state primary?
    Great question (none / 0) (#216)
    by pie on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:51:08 PM EST
    But what's so crazy about the idea that the Democratic frontrunner -- flush with cash and outspending Clinton 3-to-1, running against a candidate with such high unfavorable ratings -- should be able to win a blue state primary?

    Look, the SD's have heard both and seen the results of money, campaigning, debates and qualifications.  She's been out there taking on all the bad guys.  He's been less forthcoming.

    The choice should be easy.

    Parent

    Yes (none / 0) (#223)
    by Steve M on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:55:15 PM EST
    Obama has overcome Clinton leads in all these other states, but somehow in Pennsylvania it's just so goshdarned impossible.  Because apparently you never lose the state where your father was born, or something.

    Parent
    Fox called it (none / 0) (#202)
    by Stellaaa on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:45:31 PM EST


    Stupid question (none / 0) (#203)
    by stillife on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:45:32 PM EST
    On Fox they're talking about how much of the white vote for Clinton is based on race.  How about the fact that 90% of the AA's vote for Obama?  

    Fox just projected Hillary as the winner.

    Fox news (none / 0) (#204)
    by eleanora on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:45:36 PM EST
    just projected Hillary as the winner!

    Sorry if someone already mentioned (none / 0) (#207)
    by BlueMerlin on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:46:59 PM EST
    this, but Fox stated earlier that exit polls in past primaries have tended to favor Obama.

    I think some proportion of Hillary supporters are hesitant to admit they've voted for Hillary.  I can imagine a woman being hesitant if a pro-Obama husband/boyfriend is standing there listening.  It could also be that the Obama 'vibe' is very strong around the polling station.  Or because Hillary has been 'tarred' so badly by the media that it's kind of embarassing to admit that you are for her.    Or ... ????

    There's always the "Bradley Effect" (not wanting to admit you didn't vote for an African-American) but I have trouble seeing that in this case where his opponent was projected to win.  

    Embarrassed Voter Theory, it's called (none / 0) (#222)
    by Cream City on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:54:55 PM EST
    and there's an analysis of it, some time ago, on pollster.com.  Frankly, it sounds a lot more valid than the much-discounted Bradley Effect Theory.

    Parent
    Luzerne is WilkesBerra. (none / 0) (#208)
    by BarnBabe on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:47:05 PM EST
    Wayne is on their board too and that is my county. And that is rural and country and small town. I am amazed that the numbers are getting there so fast. We changed to paper this time. Maybe that makes it faster.

    Philly (none / 0) (#212)
    by DaveOinSF on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:49:08 PM EST
    Most of the jump was from Philly.  Hillary still leads 12K to 11K, or 53-47, in that county.

    MSNBC calls for HRC! (none / 0) (#215)
    by ruffian on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:50:52 PM EST


    Sheesh! (none / 0) (#219)
    by lilburro on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:53:26 PM EST
    They've only been counting for 30 minutes.  Does that gesture to a big win?

    Parent
    Si, if it is like Fox says; less than 10% (none / 0) (#217)
    by Andy08 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:52:28 PM EST
    will the media, the DNC (Brazile and company) + Obama camp burn HRC at the stake? Will they be sooo
    ugly?

    Better question: what do you think does this mean in the Super-Delegates minds?

    Casey agrees on FOX you cannot win in the fall if (none / 0) (#218)
    by TalkRight on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:52:44 PM EST
    you don't win PA

    KO thinks the threshold number (none / 0) (#220)
    by ruffian on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:54:26 PM EST
    for "big victory" should change according to how fast his network decided to call the result.  Idiot.

    I'm waiting for margin...? (none / 0) (#221)
    by smott on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:54:29 PM EST
    I believe I promised earlier today to down a shot for every percentage point HRC wins by....!!

    6 pts :( with 3% in. (none / 0) (#225)
    by waldenpond on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:57:31 PM EST
    boo.... I want more pts.  :(

    Look now (none / 0) (#227)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 08:00:08 PM EST
    You'll be happier.

    Parent
    I have now seen 56-44 at 3% from several sources (none / 0) (#226)
    by smott on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:59:50 PM EST
    ...however someone said Philly reports early and that favors BO?

    I understood it to be the opposite, the higher pop'd areas take longer to tally and so report later. The sparse areas, i.e. middle of the state should come in first, favoring HRC....

    Thoughts?

    Hi (none / 0) (#234)
    by sam1900 on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:02:33 AM EST
    Thanks for the information. Actually I was looking for a website for online share trading using credit card. Can anyone help me?

    ==
    sam
    Pennsylvania Treatment Centers

    Pennsylvania Primary Results: Live Blog One | 234 comments (234 topical)

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