Latest North Carolina Voter Registration Stats

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 02:48:09 PM EST
Tags: North Carolina '08 (all tags)

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One stop voter registration and voting is already underway in North Carolina which holds its primary May 6.

Here are the latest voter registration stats for the state. They are broken down by county, but here are the totals as of April 26:

Total Voters 5,791,221
Democrats 2,616,995
Republicans 1,933,929
Unaffiliated 1,240,297
White 4,368,780
African Amer. 1,192,950
Hispanic 49,835
American Indian 44,170
Women 3,163,294
Men 2,603,775

Since people can register and vote on the same day during one stop voting which doesn't end until May 3, these won't be the final numbers.

Here's what the numbers were at the start of 2008. The number of registered Dems has increased by about 105,000 since January. The number of African American voters for both parties and unaffiliated has increased about 65,000, from 1,128,082 to 1,192,950 (the 4/26 numbers aren't broken down by party.) [More...]

Republican voter registration hasn't changed much since January: it's increased by about 14,000 voters. Unaffiliated has grown by about 65,000 voters.

So there are about 170,000 new Democrat and unaffiliated voters in N.C. since January, and 65,000 new African American voters (including Republicans, but there likely aren't many of those.) Also, I can't tell how many of the newly registered voters are women, but currently they outnumber male voters by 500,000. The 2007 voter by age report is here.

Do these numbers tell us anything one way or the other about the size of the predicted Obama win in North Carolina? A county map is here. State and county demographic numbers are here.

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Latest North Carolina Voter Registration Stats | 38 comments (38 topical)

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Single digits will be a victory (5.00 / 0) (#3)
by ajain on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 02:59:01 PM EST

It will in fact be a huge victory considering that AAs will make up about 40% of democratic electorate.

Um, I think more like 20%. (none / 0) (#26)
by derridog on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 04:44:34 PM EST

: Sorry.You're right. I was (none / 0) (#27)
by derridog on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 04:46:15 PM EST

looking at the total electorate.

For what it's worth I grew up in (5.00 / 1) (#8)
by athyrio on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 03:11:24 PM EST

Warren County (along the VA line) and at that point way back then it was 75% AA....That was the scene of my activism in helping register AA's to vote....way back in the 60's.....Last time I visited (about 20 yrs ago) the government had turned almost completely AA for obvious reasons at least in that county...

It will be close (5.00 / 0) (#9)
by ChuckieTomato on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 03:21:36 PM EST

First, not every one who is registered will vote, unless they do one stop. Second, expect 50 percent turnout which is roughly 600k AA and 1.3 mil. white. Second, Hillary will do very well in rural western and eastern NC.

If Hillary carries 70 percent of the white vote she will win, period. 970k to 930k. If she get 65 percent or less she will lose close.

I didn't even figure the Hispanic vote in which she will run away with. Hillary could win which is why there are contesting it so hard.

: Nevermind that this primary isn't a crossover (none / 0) (#10)
by ChuckieTomato on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 03:23:33 PM EST

primary. White numbers are all wrong

Don't forget demographics (5.00 / 1) (#20)
by Marvin42 on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 04:05:16 PM EST

I agree that Sen Clinton needs to minimize the popular vote hit, but I think that SDs will look at Sen Obama demographics. If he can do well with key demographics then he will have a true victory. If he gets a large win, but still loses the same demos he lost in PA (and may lose in IN) then it may be a pyrrhic victory.

: Good point, and by the same token (5.00 / 1) (#35)
by Cream City on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 05:58:32 PM EST

super-delegates (the savvy ones) may look at the atypically older, Catholic, etc., demographics of Pennsylvania -- and adjust percentages for Clinton dependent upon how super-delegates think those groups will turn out in the general election. (Older and Catholic voters usually do turn out well, of course -- but by as much as in Pennsylvania?)
The converse, of course, would be adjusting for the atypically young turnout in Iowa -- but internals would have to tell them whether younger voters will turn out as well for the general election. The turnout models for the primaries have not help up well, so whether they will return to norms of previous years is one of the unknown unknowns.

numbers tell me (1.00 / 0) (#7)
by nell on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 03:05:21 PM EST

that hill cannot win in nc and single digits would be a huge wn for her, but bad for the party because it will mean tremendous racial polarization. the numbers also look troublesome in terms of her popular vote...

Hillary win is bad for the party? (none / 0) (#11)
by felizarte on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 03:30:24 PM EST

It means that the people who comprise the party think otherwise. Don't sell the AA short. They are individuals with individual minds. They can no longer be led like unthinking cattle. They too want the most qualified person for the presidency. They will not want to be blamed forever for letting loose an inexperienced representative of their people on the rest of the country.

This, "Clinton will alienate all of the AA voters from the democatic party," is not true now and it won't be true when she becomes the nominee and the president.


You are quite right.. (none / 0) (#21)
by FlaDemFem on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 04:05:29 PM EST

Some of my black friends were saying just a couple of days ago that if Obama got in and messed up, it would set back blacks in national politics for years. They remember Jesse Jackson and his Rainbow Coalition and how it said that it didn't matter what color you were or where you lived, you were SOMEBODY! That did more to give hope, inspire, uplift, and motivate people to make their lives better than Obama ever has. They know that the first black President has to be the BEST person for the job who will leave a shining legacy of accomplishment. They don't think Obama is that person. Neither do I.


: I think that argument (none / 0) (#22)
by pie on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 04:14:06 PM EST

makes a lot of sense if one looks at this pragmatically. But a lot of blacks are probably seeing "First Black President." Maybe it doesn't matter if he actually wins or not, but after Bush's treatment of New Orleans, NCLB, healthcare, the war, I sure wouldn't want another republican in the White House.
Hillary has to try to make her case to them that she can win and fight for all of us.

Hillary Needs To Keep It Close In NC... (none / 0) (#24)
by PssttCmere08 on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 04:35:55 PM EST

Does anyone think John Edwards might throw an endorsement out to Hillary?


: Opposite (none / 0) (#28)
by AnninCA on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 04:48:38 PM EST

Elizabeth is helping by drawing attention to the healthcare, but it's pretty clear that Edwards won't endorse.

: We can only wish. (none / 0) (#29)
by derridog on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 04:50:39 PM EST

Tells us Hillary will have a struggle with that (none / 0) (#1)
by athyrio on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 02:54:32 PM EST

many AA voters....I still think that is why Clyburn floated the new race card...Their inner polls told them that some of the AA's were becoming disillusioned...So now they have shored that weakness up I guess...Sad...

I Want To Think AA's Are Smarter Than That!! (none / 0) (#4)
by PssttCmere08 on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 03:00:11 PM EST

If they have become disillusioned with Obama; can't we suppose that Clyburn's clumsy attempt to brand the Clintons will not have much effect. I have to believe that some of them are starting to equate Sen. Clinton with the years of peace and prosperity they enjoyed under Bill's administration.


: please leave clyburn (none / 0) (#5)
by Jeralyn on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 03:00:54 PM EST

to other threads, this is about voter numbers and predictions.

Agree (none / 0) (#23)
by AnninCA on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 04:18:11 PM EST

but I am guessing it's because in Philly, Obama did not get the AA turn-out expected. A lot of registrations....and not enough turn-out. That's why a lot of the polls were off in PA.


: I was shocked at how few (none / 0) (#33)
by dotcommodity on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 05:45:09 PM EST

young Black voters there were - 4% or something. Older Black voters: plenty. Why did the young ones not turn out?
oh...I see, they don't show polling info for under 5% of any exitpoll demographic for some reason. Still would have liked to see how that 3% and 4% voted...

One thing about NC (none / 0) (#6)
by angie on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 03:04:41 PM EST

both Raleigh/Durham and Charlotte have a lot of influx of "new" people who move here because of jobs -- Heck, Charlotte is becoming a lot like Atlanta -- finding a person who is a native to the area is increasingly rare. I myself moved here two years ago and just registered to vote last October when I got my lazy butt down to the DMV to get a NC driver's license (yes, I know I should have done that in the first 90 days I was here -- sue me). While there is no way to determine how many of these "new voters" are people who are new to the area, the fact that a lot of people fall into category should not be discounted.

Clinton would be lucky to lose only by 10 (none / 0) (#12)
by Davidson on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 03:32:36 PM EST

That's a massive haul of new black voters. They make up nearly half of all Democratic voters (right) and they'll obviously come out in droves for Obama. Remember what he did in MS. Huge numbers.

I predict Clinton will lose by 15, but I wouldn't be absolutely shocked if she lost by more (even 20). Those numbers are just too big.

it all comes down to the districts (5.00 / 0) (#16)
by Kathy on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 03:42:52 PM EST

have repubs gerrymandered the districts to blunt the AA vote? They certainly have in other states. Alabama is a classic example of how to win the popular vote but lose the delegate numbers.

But, not specifically with aa voters, but it seems some are assuming all the new voters are registering to vote for Obama, and that simply is not a proven theory.


Popular vote (5.00 / 0) (#17)
by Davidson on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 03:59:10 PM EST

It'll be about the popular vote, not the delegates. For Clinton, at least. I fear that a big NC Obama win (most likely) will make it difficult for Clinton with regards to the popular vote count. And it'll change boost the whole "Obama is inevitable!" narrative.

I hope superdelegates will take into consideration this is a red state and how unlikely such a demographic gimme will be for Obama in the GE (if he's the nominee). I doubt they will though.


Delegates don't really matter now Kathy. (none / 0) (#18)
by Teresa on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 03:59:25 PM EST

It's the popular vote she needs and she'll take a huge hit here.


Democrats control the state government here and a (none / 0) (#30)
by derridog on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 04:52:28 PM EST

lot of the party leaders and activists are pro Obama.


I read somewhere that the day after PA (none / 0) (#36)
by hairspray on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 06:05:56 PM EST

Hillary's campaign opened 20 new offices in NC. I also know that Ace Smith, who engineered her win in TX and CA is there and has been since TX. We can pray that she keeps the loss in low numbers.


: Yeah. I hope so. A lot of my friends are pro- (5.00 / 1) (#37)
by derridog on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 06:10:14 PM EST

Hillary (college professors), but I also know a great many who are for Obama. I just wish that Hillary had more money to compete with him.

It would be helpful (none / 0) (#13)
by standingup on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 03:36:54 PM EST

to have a breakdown of the ages of the voters to make a good guess. I checked and found the NC Board of Elections has a North Carolina Age Statistics Report 2007.

: thanks I will add that (none / 0) (#15)
by Jeralyn on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 03:39:17 PM EST

link to the age report to the post.

Anything else on the ballot? (none / 0) (#19)
by Cream City on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 04:00:10 PM EST

Including to bring out Republicans? How does it work there -- semi-open primary, straight ticket, etc.?

semi-open primary (none / 0) (#32)
by angie on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 05:02:22 PM EST

only Dems can vote in the Dem primary and only Repubs. can vote in the Repub. primary. Is have to choose one or the other. There is a race for governor going on, so people will be coming out to vote for the governor too and I seriously doubt any Repubs or Is who lean Repubs. will give voting for the Repub. candidate for governor to vote in the Dem. primary.


: Very helpful; thanks (nt) (none / 0) (#34)
by Cream City on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 05:50:34 PM EST

advanced degree older voters for Clinton IIRC (none / 0) (#25)
by jedimom on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 04:35:55 PM EST

IIRC Clinton does better with 'advanced degree older voters', so maybe this wont be a blowout on the educational side..

Yes. Western NC same thing. College kids (none / 0) (#31)
by derridog on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 04:54:50 PM EST

are pro Obama. Obama has an office in my little town and Hillary has nothing. Hardly any signs.

Doesn't anyone think the commercials (none / 0) (#38)
by kenosharick on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 08:41:40 PM EST

being run in the senate(or is it gov?)race will hurt Obama? How much play are they getting there,or were they pulled?

: Yeah, (none / 0) (#39)
by cannondaddy on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 09:07:07 PM EST

the five or six people who haven't heard about Rev. Wright might change their mind.

Another sign (none / 0) (#40)
by cannondaddy on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 09:14:45 PM EST

Of Obama's strength in NC. God bless the Tar Heel State.

The Gubernatorial race there is going to be the most fascinating one to watch this year. I believe it may follow VA's lead in trending purple.