The RCP OR and KY polling info. Tell me what it means.
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no doubt in my mind a great KY victory over Obama would help Hillary in Oregon
people do watch TV and the WV 41 pt media coverage was pretty sensational for Hillary and embarrassing for Obama. Parent
Perhaps, West Virgina helped in giving some momentum in Oregon. The polls are all taken before W. Virginia. Parent
Clinton supporters seem to be very loyal to her, Obama followers continue to support him.
KY is more working class, OR has more high-end, intellectuals.
It tells me OR will go Blue in November and KY will to Red.
Nothing has changed.
Oregon has been strongly for Obama all campaign season. He will do well there. I just don't see Clinton getting a lot of gains in OR, per the WV win. Parent
It's just a label that flatters the needy doofuses who pounce on such things, but I've seen very little to determine where teh Awesome S/he Who Must Be Obeyed is, or in how many numbers.
It's not an economic group. Enterntainmet, arts and media (and hangers on who thing they're part of the group) encompass all earning levels, classes, education levels, etc. So do techs and whatever other "types" that get swept into the category.
Sure it's fun to speculate about this BogeyThing at the poli-watering hole, but I'd have to have a decent sippable in front of me (and in me) before I'd get into it. Parent
All I am saying is that I believe that Kentucky will go Republican in November if Obama is the nominee because there is still a large Republican voter population.
I would to hope that the Republican voters will abandon their party, but I don't see that happening.
I'm just talking about income and industries, not social standing. Parent
But know, I don't see any of those states (including Kansas) going to Obama.
The Democratic Party- grasping failure from the jaws of victory Parent
Vote by Income in West Virginia Parent
The demographics are very favorable to Obama. If he gets less than 10, I would be surprised. Obama projected 5, and the voters have solidified. Parent
It's about class, not race. Parent
West Virginia is the only state of the 13 states the Federal government says is Appalachian to have all its counties are constituent parts of Appalachia. Parent
There is a large rural population, much of which is hurting. Parent
I don't know any details, like who would ask the questions, but I think this is kind of a bold idea.
[lays down head, weeps softly] Parent
If his party weren't out to kill the planet and line the pockets of rich folk with the blood and sweat of poor folk, I'd actually consider supporting him for that reason alone. Parent
I'll support the Democratic nominee (when we have one) wholeheartedly. Nothing can compare to the damage of any Republican in that office. Parent
I live in a pro choice state no matter what party is in charge and I am no longer willing to be blackmailed by Democrats who demand that I vote for their candidate based on the court. If members of congress actually did their jobs, they wouldn't be there in the first place.
I also happen care about foreign policy, tax issues, social security, the environment, etc and Obama does not reflect my values there.
Is McCain good? No. But Obama will be a disaster for the democratic party for two generations. Parent
I will not be blackmailed either. I care about many issues. Roe v. Wade is NOT one of them. I will take a flawed McCain to a disasterous Obama.
Also, the Democrats had 56 Senate seats when Clarence Thomas was appointed. What was the Democratic party's excuse in 1990 when they had 56 SEATS?!? Parent
That being said, I tend to go with BTDs media darling theory. There is no way they will let Obama fail, Obama's has the demographic they want.... he's not only money... he's their shiny new toy and they will prop him up all the way to Nov. Parent
He has far more money and power than Obama could grab on his best day.
Watch and learn, my friend. Bush fired the first salvo today. The attack machine is oiled and ready.
The media will crush Obama like a bug if he is the nominee. Parent
Bwahaahaa...
It's going to be fun to watch. :) Parent
Clock has struck midnight. Parent
You still have to get the electoral votes and I don't see a map that gets Obama over the top - even if Kennedy came back from the dead to help him. Parent
are you trying to fool people? Parent
Obama's in love with one of them and openly courting right wing Unity to give us more.
Don't you dare put this on people who don't support Obama. (And pre-emptively, don't pull any of that sudden, ex rectum Roe v Wade concern to guilt and shame women your way either.)
Of all the tactics TeamObama has used, this one is the most perfidious and disgusting to me as it not only trivializes past suffering from persecution and impediments to inalienable constitutional rights, but falsely and needlessly puts additoonal burdens on those persecuted for continuing abuses.
It's pure scum. Parent
Next! Parent
LINK Parent
Hope this isn't a drift or phish for gotcha's, but does anyone know what solid, recorded actions show Obama will liberalize the courts?
Did he do so in state politics?
(Also, what was Anti-War Obama doing in political office or in his personal life during the crest of the anti-war movement before Iraq? Was he organizing marches, volunteers? Did he go to DC? Parent
"There's one way to guarantee that the judges who are appointed to the Supreme Court are judges that reflect our values. And that's to win elections," Obama said.]
Again, he does things for political expediency not because of any particularly held position or belief. Parent
Last night I was watching Kerry render an FDA guy speechless. That was good TV. He kept asking the guy if he had anything to say and then would answer himself with a no. I almost expected him to say 'crickets', lol!~ Parent
"My friends, The press loves me babies, so you better get in line." Parent
Wouldn't that be fun? Parent
besides he would never subject himself to a process every prime minister goes thru in the brit. parliament. He is simply not up to it and he knows it. Parent
BTD - you are the expert. What's up with that? Obama's more favorable districts have not yet been counted?
As of May 13, only 22% of all ballots in the state had been returned. Many, many people will decide over the weekend and hand-deliver their ballots to one of the multiple statewide drop-off sites.
Hillary will appear at a live townhall tomorrow night in Portland. It will be televised at 7 pm(PDT) on Portland's NBC Affiliate, KGW-TV. Only undecided voters in the audience, I've been told.
This is a great time to call and campaign for Hill. Parent
The 40% figure above my comment is what I've seen but I can't seem to use teh Google correctly to find it.
I am kind of shy about phone banking but I am definitely considering it. :-) Parent
Yeah, I know me, no going to bed until results are final. Only way I could is if I did a media black out. Once I start paying attention, it's over :) Parent
I am hoping he is looking at these polls and thinking, "Hmmmm....maybe I should wait till May 31st." Parent
"well, you know, President Bush declared "Mission Accomplished" before the war is over..." Parent
column headings: gender/age/age/age/race/Already Voted?/Ideology....
SUSA has 43% already voted, split 49/48 and 57% likely voters, split 58-38
I am surprised there is such a large difference, frankly. Parent
She usually gets late deciders, right? OR will be interesting, hopefully Parent
Hillary has to just hope the loss, if it is that, whatever the percentage does not net him many votes.
She needs to be able to argue she's credibly won the popular vote when:
a) Florida is counted but not Michigan
and/or
b) Florida is counted, Michigan is counted while given Obama the benefit of all of the undecideds (which we know he didn't have) Parent
All the polls on Oregon are just polls asking respondents whether they have voted yet or not. Parent
The "already voted" numbers you are hearing come from SUSA, and possibly other polls, that presented their polling results to distinguish, among other things, responses from those who said they had voted from those who had not. Parent
KY will be interesting to watch now . . .
painted on walls and photographed frame by frame.
I hope this person had a grant or something. it is about 7 minutes long but you need to see the whole thing.
Thanks Parent
I think there are two things to watch for in the upcoming. One is if JE makes a difference for Obama in KY. Of course things could tighten just because of the presumptive nominee issue and people stay home. But there could be a reaction that the race isn't over, like in WV, which would be a major embarrassment to Obama. I don't think Clinton has the finances to really push KY, so who knows. I think KY is a big test though.
Similarly if OR tightens up that would be telling. If Obama is unifying, you should see his numbers get better. If he's divisive, you won't. If the Obama team disrespects KY like they have WV, then the message of exclusion will continue.
a) Obama seems to be making inroads among Clinton's base an therefore is going to be able to sure up the white working class in November.
b) John Edwards led to this and therefore "maybe John Edwards will make a a good VP."
Democrats continue to bury their heads in the sand about this issue, the narrative continues and the results will be used by Obama partisans to further alienate Cliton voters, and the media continues to misunderstand the nature of the support she drew this primary season...
Seriously though, I've given up hope that the press will wake up, but I do wonder if she gets the OR margin down to the mid or low single digits if that would have any effect on the coronation. I still think his self-coronation can only backfire in the court of public opinion. But that's just me. We are roughly two weeks away from the finish line and he's going to declare victory on a night where he got pasted in one state (the larger state by the way!)?
Obama has generally done very well in the region, but I'm not sure how much of that is a caucus effect. There's a lingering animus towards Hillary since she is seen as a big-government type and the western states don't really have a big-government culture. Parent
Thanks! Parent
If super-D's voted based on how their constitutents votes, it changes a lot. Ted Kennedy and John Kerry, are you listening?
so this is why the Obama camp stopped it's narrative that SD's should "follow the will of the people" Parent
The narrative says that the SD's cannot use their own judgment if they are bound by any rules.
But, I think Obama dropped it because he would have had to give up too many existing and decline the support of those yet to come if someone were to hold him to it. Remember, all rules in this primary are designed to the favor of Obama. Parent
I understand the rules as written - my point was the Obama camp was screaming for a month or so (I'm looking at you Nancy Pelosi) that SD's should vote the way their districts voted (even though that's not in the rules). They haven't mentioned that theme lately since Obama would lose under those circumstances. Parent
"This little ditty was sent in by commenter Nana. It looks like the Obamaphiles have pushed the envelope:
WooHoo...................Wilk talk radio here in Scranton, PA is going wild this afternoon. Host Steve Corbett has had it with being called a racist for supporting Hillary Clinton and has stated he will not vote for Obama. The lines are going crazy with calls from people in NE PA who feel the same way. They will not vote for Obama and will vote for McCain if they have to to stop him. The mementum is starting against the Democratic Party. Keep it going all over the USA"
The party establishment better watch it. The rank and file Democrats are not going to take this nonsense. Parent
If Obama gets his delegates to come out, Begala agrees what? FL and MI are irrelevant?
Please tell me Obama is not going to do this. People need to be able to vote. I understand he looks bad if people don't consolidate behind him, but don't any Dems want to at least pretend to care about voters.
Hillary is ahead in the electoral votes.
Hillary won the big states.
Hillary is experienced and has a record of accomplishments. BO has neither.
Hillary's close friends don't include an anti-American terrorist bomber, crooked Iraqis, Chicago crooks, Farrakhan, and the Black Panthers. And, she didn't sit in front of an anti-American racist preacher for 20 years, who Oprah has sense enough to leave, but Obama is a bit slow.
Obama is a loser. If you can't see it now, you will when you congratulate McCain.
If we have to wait 4 years for a great president like Clinton, we will. We will not vote for a corrupt, lying, charlatan.
If you want to see more reasons why we won't vote for BO go to:
http://www.thepetitionsite.com/1/pledge-to-vote-against-obama-in-the-general-election
When the real motives are exposed, the endorsement becomes an insult to the intelligence of the people.
I'm betting we won't see much of Edwards again for awhile. At least not if he's reading his emails. He really let the country down with his self-serving 180 degree turn.
They are birds of a feather: Obama: I will not run in 2008, and Edwards: I will not endorse. Parent
I bet she wins Oregon (and maybe the nomination) over this. Parent
Can't make this stuff up.... Parent
I am surprised that Obama is doing as well as he is among women in Oregon, to be frank. It is possible that among those who have not voted, women will rally to Hillary due to the NARAL and Edwards double teaming after her big win. What is interesting is that we won't have Oregon exit polls since it is all vote by mail, right? I expect him to win there by 8-10, though I sincerely hope the polling showing them neck and neck among turned in ballots is correct and that she can pull it much closer.
Kentucky I think will come down to turnout. If he is able to drive the turnout of African Americans WAY up, as he did in Indiana (though AAs are about 9 percent of the population in Indiana, AAs accounted for 15-17 percent of Dem primary voters), it will be closer than people think.
Worth noting that there are two Vermonts, really, old and "new." We have quite a flood of ex-pats from NYC and Boston, etc., (of which I am one, sad to say), mostly that "creative class" type, and then there are the folks whose families have been here forever, mostly farmers.
Almost every town in the state went for Obama in the primary, but by varying margins, higher in the "cities" and lower in the farm towns like mine. I suspect, but I don't know, that the farm women here-- farm women being about the most practical people on the planet-- mostly voted for Hillary and the men for Obama.
Virtually all old and new Vermonters are open-minded and idealistic, and many of the farm folk in my town were just captivated by the idea of an African-American president and voted for him mostly because of that, bless their hearts. Parent
Still, it's like less than 10% of total. Parent
A lot of Washington's electoral problems can be connected to the aggressive insistence of its citizens refusing to register by party -- hence, the Dem party's rule that all delegates will be apportioned by caucus, not primary. And we have continually rejected a state income tax, which would actually solve a lot of problems with tax inequity and our vulnerable bi-annual budgets.
It's just part of the blazing-the-trail mindset from the 19th century. It takes many different forms here. Some positive, some not. We are leaders in recycling and green energy programs. We are leaders in technology and medicine. And... we have A LOT of voters who consider themselves political independents. West of the Cascades is very different from East of the Cascades, in both states. The divides between the mountains are like two different countries. Parent
Luckily NARAL in OR can see through Obama. Parent
The biggest question for me is the accuracy of the already voted number reported by SUSA, which show the candidates in a statistical dead heat. For those who hadn't voted, Obama was winning by 20%. This would tend to make me think Clinton's supporters were more motivated than Obama's. I can't think of an explanation why those who haven't voted tilt so heavily in favor of Obama.
KY looks like a blowout, probably around 30% in favor of Clinton.
http://www.politico.com/superdelegates/ Parent
Lori Drew of suburban St. Louis was charged with one count of conspiracy and three counts of accessing protected computers without authorization to obtain information to inflict emotional distress on the girl.
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gg5xCtQtLBF6vJqWXStItGEOsJfwD90M8KA00
In other legal news, the California Supreme Court has overturned the law banning same sex marriage in the state.
The number of agencies this went through before it finally found a voice in the legal system is really sad. Parent
In the years since, OR has added more suburbanites from SoCal as well as your liberal organic farmily fammers, environmentalists and artisan types. Far fewer working class whites and the vast majority of them are your basic Goopers.
Yes, there may have been some anti-inner city white flight, but that's a non-issue since Obama would be considered a "safe" unthreatening, even ideal, black guy, someone who looks well "assimilated" in the dominant establishement white culture. Parent
Did you see Berman's reasons for endorsing Obama today [rather Edwardian, IMO]:
-
Representative Howard Berman of California: The chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Mr. Berman's endorsement seems well timed given the furor over President Bush's comments in Israel today: Barack Obama has laid out a foreign policy vision driven by principle and conviction, and he understands that our moral authority and our safety as a nation go hand in hand. I spoke with him about a number of foreign policy issues that most concern me. He assured me that he shares my views. The moment President Obama takes office, we'll send a powerful message to the world that America is back and ready to lead again--that we haven't abandoned the values that made us the light of the world, and neither should anyone else.
I wish Berman would share the content of his conversation with Obama about "a number of foreign policy issues that most concern me." Parent
LATIMES Parent
She could only hope to make things interesting enough to force the Rs to spend some money/time there if she were the nominee. Her being VP would be almost meaningless.
OR is definitely blue and regardless of who BHO puts on the ticket.
Of course, there's always troublemaker Ralf Nadir to have to worry about when it comes to calculating OR. Parent
I'd like to think HRC at the top of the ticket could work, at least in this very anti-Repub year -- it's certainly not impossible, but I suspect KY would fairly comfortably remain red in Nov in that scenario. She definitely, as I say, would have a greater chance to force the Repubs to spend money there to ensure a win. Parent
Many very conservative OR voters refer to their various GOoPer elected officials as "RINOs."
There's a form of independent party switching just to indicate some folks' sense of "independence."
The Clinton name is a negative. To some extent, the logging industry was gutted by decisions made when the Big Dog was president. Logging was not just an economic/financial entity; it was a way of life & it has been eliminated. The industry dropped from about 6.1 billion board feet in 1991 to about 3.8 bbf in 2000.
OR has a "great divide" between blue collar & pink or white collar. Most of the blue collars register GOoPer. The so-called "Cascade Divide" isn't quite accurate since the logging & fishing businesses tend to be on the Pacific Coast & the agriculture in the East-side drylands.
There is a North-South tunnel, the I-5 Corridor, that concentrates the more up-scale voters in Portland, Corvallis, Salem (capital), Eugene & (to a minor extent) Grants Pass / Medford.
It is not Clinton country on income, job type, or political allegiance.
Currently Ron Wyden (D) is a somewhat liberal US Senator; Gordon Smith (R) is wingnut trying to move toward the middle for this election.
but hey, that's just me.