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NBC Oregon Exit Poll: White Men for Obama Around 2-1

Chris Matthews just violated his network rules by letting us know that NBC's exit polls show Barack Obama winning white men by around 2-1 in Oregon. Of course the Oregon polls are open until 11 pm EST. But how did he do with white women? This is rather interesting. Tweety did not tell us. Why? I am curious because SUSA projected all men going for Obama around 2-1 but women splitting evenly. Based on that, SUSA predicted an Obama 13 point win in Oregon. The question now is how did women go? And the 6% of the voters who are Asians and Latino? How did they vote? It becomes rather interesting.

By Big Tent Democrat

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  • Display: Sort:
    What the hell? Why didn't he tell us about (5.00 / 1) (#1)
    by bjorn on Tue May 20, 2008 at 06:26:40 PM EST
    the white women vote then?  What a jerk.

    you can't really do anything about white women (5.00 / 2) (#2)
    by Kathy on Tue May 20, 2008 at 06:28:39 PM EST
    they're just gonna do...whatever it is they do. It's like they are uncontrollable children.  I'm sure they'll come around in the end, but they are really irritating a lot of people right now trying to flex their teeny muscles.

    Parent
    He he...he... (5.00 / 1) (#10)
    by Stellaaa on Tue May 20, 2008 at 06:31:38 PM EST
    Attention everyone: (none / 0) (#82)
    by ghost2 on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:35:51 PM EST
    Is it possible that Chris got this number from Politico, in which case it was just a cute comment?

    Ben Smith posted this at 1:36pm

    Scenes from Oregon and Kentucky: The mailman's exit poll

    Some great anecdotes from the comments section on voting in Kentucky and Oregon, with the usual caveats that these are unconfirmed and that this sample of Politico readers does not include all Americans (though we're getting there) and leans Obama.

    Oregon:

    My mailman said he did an exit poll of those on his route and reports that it is running 2 to 1 for Obama, and he is hearing similar results from mail carriers through out the state.

    It seems silly, but then we are talking about MSM, so I wouldn't be too surprised.

    Parent

    Dog bites man (none / 0) (#4)
    by riddlerandy on Tue May 20, 2008 at 06:29:11 PM EST
    he should be fired (5.00 / 4) (#3)
    by Robert Oak on Tue May 20, 2008 at 06:28:48 PM EST
    I'm sorry, Oregon is still voting and it's all about those undecided and believe there are many and why they hung onto their ballots.  I talked to two people yesterday who voted for Obama when they first got their ballots and now regret it and wished they hadn't.

    So, here comes a pundit, influencing the vote on TV while it's still going on and frankly the other news networks are too, they are literally saying "Obama will win" Oregon since the polls say ....

    and this is just uncool due to voting going on....

    Checked out your blog-interesting stuff (5.00 / 1) (#18)
    by jawbone on Tue May 20, 2008 at 06:37:17 PM EST
    Coverage of issues, over and over and over, would be so nice.

    It's not like people can't deal with numbers and details if they care about something. Just look at the sports talk shows....

    Parent

    TY (none / 0) (#74)
    by Robert Oak on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:16:09 PM EST
    I'm venting my general voter frustrations on the major blogs but EP is for very detailed analysis on trade, economics and so on with no spin (hopefully).

    Parent
    Something needs to be done about this. (5.00 / 3) (#19)
    by magisterludi on Tue May 20, 2008 at 06:37:43 PM EST
    Seriously, doesn't anyone remember the FL Panhandle debacle of 2000?

    Absolutely malevolent.

    Parent

    How does vote by mail (none / 0) (#5)
    by riddlerandy on Tue May 20, 2008 at 06:30:26 PM EST
    work on election day?  I assume you can still hand in your voted ballot at the election office?

    Parent
    there are drop off places, like mailboxes (5.00 / 1) (#7)
    by bjorn on Tue May 20, 2008 at 06:31:08 PM EST
    there are drop off places, like mailboxes (none / 0) (#9)
    by bjorn on Tue May 20, 2008 at 06:31:16 PM EST
    WV KY OR (none / 0) (#22)
    by Rashomon66 on Tue May 20, 2008 at 06:40:31 PM EST
    The pundits said the same thing about Kentucky and WV for Hillary. How could they sacrifice the voting by telling us who would win before it the votes were even cast?
    Kidding, of course.
    Everyone knows Obama will win Oregon. What's the argument?

    Parent
    Personally, I believe that if (5.00 / 1) (#29)
    by angie on Tue May 20, 2008 at 06:45:59 PM EST
    even ONE person doesn't drop of his/her ballot because of something some idiot said on tv, then I think that is a SERIOUS problem.

    Parent
    Don't worry -- no one is watching MSNBC (none / 0) (#25)
    by angie on Tue May 20, 2008 at 06:43:25 PM EST
    except for the few of us here in the blogosphere.

    Parent
    Obama News Network's rating (5.00 / 1) (#37)
    by stefystef on Tue May 20, 2008 at 06:52:11 PM EST
    has not improved during this primary season.

    I wonder why s

    Parent

    Jerk. Of the worst kind. (5.00 / 0) (#8)
    by Angel on Tue May 20, 2008 at 06:31:10 PM EST


    I hope half of them lied in the exit (5.00 / 0) (#11)
    by bjorn on Tue May 20, 2008 at 06:32:00 PM EST
    poll, just so I could watch Chris eat crow.

    Parent
    Passing Chris Hot Sauce For His Turd Taco... (none / 0) (#62)
    by PssttCmere08 on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:07:26 PM EST
    So Why Should Today Be Different...Tweety (none / 0) (#13)
    by PssttCmere08 on Tue May 20, 2008 at 06:33:15 PM EST
    is a moron everyday.  Let's see how many people are even paying attention to what he says.  And if he says it again, will be the test.  Hopefully, someone stops him in his tracks.

    Parent
    Pffft. (5.00 / 0) (#20)
    by lilburro on Tue May 20, 2008 at 06:39:18 PM EST
    WTF is wrong with Chris Matthews?  I hope he's off the air on Election night.

    IMO, CNN exit polls are the best anyway.  

    Another thing Chris won't be mentioning (5.00 / 4) (#21)
    by Nike on Tue May 20, 2008 at 06:40:13 PM EST
    from the exit polls is how extremely well Hilary did across ALL income levels in Kentucky.

    Income
    below $100,000   65% HRC
    above $100,000   67% HRC

    She won in every economic category they polled for, but notably she was EVEN stronger above $100,000, and higher, than she was below it. (They do not break out % for above $150,000, but the numbers for the 100-150 range make it clear that that bracket went for her at a rate of probably more than %70!)


    And Isn't That Supposed To Be A Stronghold (none / 0) (#66)
    by PssttCmere08 on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:10:22 PM EST
    for obama?

    Parent
    Here's the real question, BTD (5.00 / 0) (#30)
    by stefystef on Tue May 20, 2008 at 06:48:08 PM EST
    Are those white men in Oregon who voted for Obama in the primary going to vote for him in November?

    I always wonder if the male vote for Obama is really an anti-Hillary vote.

    And Chris Matthews only reports on news that supports Obama.  Don't bring me no bad news about Barack, Tweety proclaims!

    That's All It Is (none / 0) (#85)
    by aa incalif on Wed May 21, 2008 at 04:51:20 AM EST
    The OB vote has always been the anti hillary vote.  I refuse to vote in the GE, don't want to be responsible for the diaster that's about to take place.  This country doesn't need a Chi-Town Hustler as the President.

    Why would anyone give money to a guy that gave ONE SPEECH?  BO's handlers objective has always been to marginalize the AA vote.

    To the AA community that thinks BO is untouchable think about this, HRC doesn't need you,  McCain doesn't want you and Obama is going to ignore you.  Thanks Obama for marginaziling the AA vote.  Job well done BO.

    The AA vote is simply the "We finally got one of our own that has a legit chance to become President". Who needs the "I was the first to run"

    Anyone can say after the fact that they were against the Iraq War.  Where is the proof that Obama was against the war?  Where was OB when all of the Anti war protest were taking place?  There were millions of people marching in every major city world wide.  Joe Wilson was in the mix and he said he never heard of BO.

    Can anyone tell me if they heard Obama's Anti War speech?  Where did they find Michelle on MSNBC?  What a piece of work and What a Hillary Hater.

    I get angry just hearing the guy speak.

    Angry Black Man!

    Parent

    If Oregon was going the way Tweety wanted (5.00 / 0) (#31)
    by americanincanada on Tue May 20, 2008 at 06:48:37 PM EST
    he would not look like someone spit in his coffee and he chased it with a lemon.

    He is one unhappy man right now.

    Can anyone tell why he is in Iowa and not Oregon (5.00 / 1) (#32)
    by TalkRight on Tue May 20, 2008 at 06:48:40 PM EST
    Just why?? Shouldn't he thank Oregon that helped him reach the SAID milestone that he is going to proclaim in Iowa..

    And then what is he going to do in FL when it does not matter in Nov according to Axelrod's MATH.

    Time zone difference (5.00 / 0) (#38)
    by Kathy on Tue May 20, 2008 at 06:52:49 PM EST
    OR is three hours behind KY, so he'll need to do something to counter Clinton's crushing win.  I mean, other than have his tool b*tch Tweety throw out meaningless statistics.

    Parent
    Because OR polls don't close until 11:00 EST (5.00 / 0) (#43)
    by ineedalife on Tue May 20, 2008 at 06:55:39 PM EST
    He wants to address the East Coast and pre-empt Hillary before East Coasters go to bed, and giving a victory speech in OR while voting is still going on is beneath even Axelrod.

    Parent
    my theory (none / 0) (#39)
    by hlr on Tue May 20, 2008 at 06:53:16 PM EST
    [1] recent polls show the race b/t BO & McCain tightening in IA. IA was supposed to be a "win in a walk" for BO, remember?

    [2] trying to recapture The Speech moment.

    Parent

    Iowa first win (none / 0) (#40)
    by Rashomon66 on Tue May 20, 2008 at 06:53:34 PM EST
    Throughout most of this Primary the candidates move onto the next state they will campaign in. In the case of Iowa, Obama is working on the General Election now. He knows the Primary is basically over.
    He has gone back to Iowa to awknowledge that state for being the state where he first earned a victory.

    Parent
    We don't have a nominee, (none / 0) (#54)
    by pie on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:01:15 PM EST
    and that won't change after tonight.

    Parent
    Yeah but... (none / 0) (#60)
    by Rashomon66 on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:07:04 PM EST
    Do you really think Hillary can win at this stage? I mean let's be really honest here - not use legal or techincal jargon.


    Parent
    Until one of them gets enough (5.00 / 1) (#73)
    by pie on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:15:48 PM EST
    to win, either of them can.

    If we have to go to August, all the better.  Right now, I don't think Obama can go the distance.  I'd like to see what he's made of.

    She's already proven it.

    Parent

    CNN -- Obama cannot proclaim milestone based on KY (none / 0) (#52)
    by TalkRight on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:00:58 PM EST
    funny.. first he wanted to make a victory speech .. then he just wanted to proclaim reaching a milestone.. now CNN says he cannot based on just KY.. WILL HE WAIT TILL 11.00 EST?

    Parent
    He Can Wait Til The Cows Come Home.... (none / 0) (#68)
    by PssttCmere08 on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:11:54 PM EST
    who cares what obama has to say; he will probably change it tomorrow anyway.

    Parent
    I would expect nothing less from the... (5.00 / 0) (#36)
    by AX10 on Tue May 20, 2008 at 06:51:32 PM EST
    "G*D D**M America Network".
    That's what I call MSNBC, because that is what they believe.
    The mysgony from Matthews, Olbermann, Shuster, and Gregory is sickening.  Fox is "saintly" compared to these twits.

    When MSNBC makes FoxNews look fair (5.00 / 1) (#48)
    by stefystef on Tue May 20, 2008 at 06:58:18 PM EST
    you know it's the beginning of the end. LOL

    Parent
    Oh, now here it is (5.00 / 0) (#44)
    by gyrfalcon on Tue May 20, 2008 at 06:56:15 PM EST
    Chuck Todd on MSNBC just went through that whole thing about how Obama has trouble with states that have a history of "racial tension"-- ie, the people who won't vote for Obama are racists.

    This is getting crazy (5.00 / 1) (#58)
    by stefystef on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:06:22 PM EST
    People who don't vote for Obama aren't all racists.
    Perhaps voters are looking at issues and feel experience is more important.

    Calling everyone who doesn't support Obama a "racist" is no way to unite a party.

    Parent

    Ha, no history of racial tension (5.00 / 1) (#70)
    by zyx on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:12:31 PM EST
    Oregon is partly so lily-white cos it is one of those states that had a STATE CONSTITUTION that forbade black persons to come here to live until, oh, the twenties or something.  Well into the twentieth century.

    Parent
    Props for knowing that (none / 0) (#76)
    by spit on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:19:22 PM EST
    the first former sundown town I ever drove through was in OR.

    Which is not to cap on OR, generally -- heck, there's some uncomfortable history in most places. But there's a lot more to the place than Portland and Eugene, and to say it has no history of "racial tension" is absolutely laughable.

    Parent

    Yes (none / 0) (#79)
    by zyx on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:31:00 PM EST
    they had exclusion law, as per the state constitution until 1926 (just looked it up, I was right--the twennies).

    I work (p-t) at an academic library here, and a grad student came in once who wanted to find an old photo of a restaurant--I don't remember the name of the place, but it's up in or just outside of Portland.  I kicked around Google Images and stuff, and he had tried those ideas, and I asked if he'd asked the restaurant, and he said "oh no, they won't let me have a copy of the picture!"  Turns out it was a picture of a "Whites Only" sign they used to display, and it was in a film he had seen, and he decided to go to the film itself for the image.  Hmm.  There is a book about race problems in Oregon, "A hundred little Hitlers : the death of a black man, the trial of a white racist, and the rise of the neo-Nazi movement in America" / Elinor Langer.

    Yuk.

    Parent

    Heh (none / 0) (#80)
    by Steve M on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:47:22 PM EST
    It's true.  Obama has a problem with white voters in anyplace that has a history of racially polarized politics, because those voters are highly sensitized to bogus accusations of racism and other tactics that have been employed in this campaign.

    White voters from more homogeneous places either aren't as sensitized to the dog whistles or aren't as bothered by them.

    Parent

    All the way to (5.00 / 1) (#45)
    by pie on Tue May 20, 2008 at 06:56:21 PM EST
    the convention.

    Go Hillary!

    WTF? (5.00 / 0) (#46)
    by kaleidescope on Tue May 20, 2008 at 06:57:45 PM EST
    How can the polls be open in Oregon until 8:00?  There aren't even polls in Oregon, everything is mailed-in.  Are there post offices still open at 8:00 p.m. in Oregon?

    You can (none / 0) (#55)
    by Ga6thDem on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:01:22 PM EST
    drop off your ballot until 8 pm is what I understand.

    Parent
    Ballots can be dropped off until 8 pm (none / 0) (#63)
    by caseyOR on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:07:29 PM EST
    There are dropboxes all over the place. And many people are taking ballots directly to the county election office. Local news on now. Lots of people lining up at election office to drop off their ballots. As of about 3:30 pm today, 48% of ballots returned. Everyone expects that number to increase.

    Lots of people return ballots on election day. Here in Portland folks are standing outside at the county election office to collect ballots from people driving up.

    This will be a big turnout, but probably not as big as 1968 (RFK/McCarthy) when turnout hit more than 70%.

    Parent

    Late deciders historically choose Clinton... (5.00 / 0) (#67)
    by Kathy on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:11:11 PM EST
    What kind of exit poll (none / 0) (#6)
    by americanincanada on Tue May 20, 2008 at 06:30:54 PM EST
    info could they possibly have that could be remotely reliable?!? Oregon is a mail in/drop off vote.

    Hey, he HAD to say something (5.00 / 5) (#14)
    by Kathy on Tue May 20, 2008 at 06:33:18 PM EST
    to take the spotlight off Clinton stomping Obama into the dirt in KY.

    Come on, folks--that's exactly what he's doing.  This is about trying to take away Clinton's win barely 30 minutes into it.

    Parent

    I once saw a basketball team (1.00 / 1) (#17)
    by riddlerandy on Tue May 20, 2008 at 06:36:00 PM EST
    score 20 straight points at the end of the game.

    Of course, they were down by 35 at the time, so it really didnt matter

    Parent

    Why are you comparing this election (5.00 / 1) (#27)
    by ChuckieTomato on Tue May 20, 2008 at 06:45:43 PM EST
    to a bball game when this election is practically even and clearly is not over?

    Remember the supers?

    Parent

    BB game - sort of (1.00 / 0) (#33)
    by Rashomon66 on Tue May 20, 2008 at 06:49:18 PM EST
    Umm, the Super Delegates won't give it to Hillary. Although someone might try to pay them off it just won't work.
    It's good to see her fight - but she's only trying to go out with good standing.

    Parent
    For Sale Unity Pony. Cheap. A bit lame on the Left (5.00 / 1) (#59)
    by FLVoter on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:06:56 PM EST
    Of course, they have (none / 0) (#51)
    by seeker on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:00:26 PM EST
    already been paid off.  You certainly remember the many large campaign contributions spread around by Obama.

    Parent
    The Supers have broken (none / 0) (#34)
    by riddlerandy on Tue May 20, 2008 at 06:49:37 PM EST
    about 15-1 Obama since WV

    Parent
    Why bless your heart, (5.00 / 1) (#42)
    by Stellaaa on Tue May 20, 2008 at 06:54:57 PM EST
    Moveon and the others told us that was stealing.  Now, how is that for new politics.  

    They can always change their minds.  She has money now and they are for sale.  Except for Byrd who wanted absolution for his youthful indiscretions with bedding and such.  

    Parent

    Now Stellaaa (none / 0) (#50)
    by riddlerandy on Tue May 20, 2008 at 06:59:50 PM EST
    my point was that big Clinton wins were not having an effect on who Supers were choosing.  

    I agree that they can always change their minds.  I just think that most of the mind-changing in the coming days and weeks will be in a direction you don't like.  

    Parent

    Money talks. (none / 0) (#56)
    by pie on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:03:33 PM EST
    If the super dees stay with him, it will prove that they were never concerned about electability.

    Parent
    I am sure that will get heat for this (none / 0) (#61)
    by riddlerandy on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:07:13 PM EST
    but my guess is that if Hillary had been the front-runner for the past couple of months and had been the target of the GOP and RW deathray machine instead of Obama, hewould be beating McCain and she would be losing to him.  JMHO

    Parent
    You will get heat. (none / 0) (#69)
    by pie on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:12:18 PM EST
    Obama brings a whole new juiciness to the GOP slime machine.

    She's been vetted.  Her biggest sin?

    Married to Bill.

    Can't wait to hear what they've dug up about him.  You know that money I talked about?   As far as republicans go,  there's plenty enough to go around.

    Heh heh.

    Parent

    If it was there to be dug up, she would have. (none / 0) (#77)
    by Christy1947 on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:23:42 PM EST
    She is that competent at that. What makes you think the Repubs can do better.

    Parent
    What teaches us? (none / 0) (#83)
    by denise on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:52:03 PM EST
    History.

    Parent
    Facts talk (none / 0) (#71)
    by Rashomon66 on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:12:40 PM EST
    If the Supers stay with Obama it will be because he has won the Primary and has the most delegates. The Supers know the rules. The rules are not about electability. If they were there would be no need for the Primary system and we would just hand the nomination to whomever is the favorite at the beginning of the election year.

    Parent
    The rulez? (none / 0) (#75)
    by pie on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:17:15 PM EST
    They change from one day to the next.

    Yawn.

    Parent

    Based on the new politics (none / 0) (#57)
    by Stellaaa on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:05:12 PM EST
    and change, Obama should reject the SDs, cause as it was told my Move-on and Obama, that was not right.  So, I think he should stand his ground that he started with and give up the SDs, it's not right, like he said and move on said.  

    Parent
    The more apt comparison is (5.00 / 2) (#49)
    by Evie on Tue May 20, 2008 at 06:58:18 PM EST
    the 2001 Nebraska football team that was undefeated until their last game of the regular season where they were demolished by Colorado 62-36.

    Despite that shameful loss, Nebraska was still picked by the BCS to go the championship game, where Miami pasted them so hard that Nebraska football hasn't made it back into the conversation yet.

    That's what happens when you ignore things like growth and momentum. Or lack thereof.

    Parent

    Being a NOtre Dame fan (none / 0) (#53)
    by riddlerandy on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:00:59 PM EST
    I am averse to football analogies at this point

    Parent
    Ouch. (none / 0) (#64)
    by pie on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:09:01 PM EST
    Too bad they didn't give Willingham
    a longer tenure.  Yet, they're sticking with Charlie Weis.

    Ugh.

    Parent

    I agree on Willingham (none / 0) (#81)
    by riddlerandy on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:21:13 PM EST
    and they handled without much class

    I'm from the Montana era

    Parent

    Heh (none / 0) (#72)
    by Evie on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:15:13 PM EST
    USC alum here.

    I actually really like the college football analogy, because the teams that play in the BCS championship game are picked by an arcane system that often has little relation to actual likelihood of winning.

    I think Hillary has the momentum, the growth, and the better strength of schedule (primaries, big states, swing states).

    Parent

    Telephone (none / 0) (#24)
    by andgarden on Tue May 20, 2008 at 06:42:22 PM EST
    It's just a standard poll.

    Parent
    Is this the same (none / 0) (#12)
    by americanincanada on Tue May 20, 2008 at 06:32:14 PM EST
    Tweety who lied on MSNBC just a few minutes ago?

    Lied About What.....Chris Matthews Did? (none / 0) (#15)
    by PssttCmere08 on Tue May 20, 2008 at 06:33:37 PM EST
    Lovely. White men for Obama 2-1. (none / 0) (#16)
    by masslib on Tue May 20, 2008 at 06:34:08 PM EST
    This brings up the point I made earlier.

    This white man supports Clinton, (5.00 / 0) (#23)
    by eric on Tue May 20, 2008 at 06:40:38 PM EST
    what was your earlier point?  If it was about Hillary hate, I agree.  People are very suprised about my preference when I tell them.  I just like her better.

    Parent
    No, I aprreciate that. I was really (none / 0) (#26)
    by masslib on Tue May 20, 2008 at 06:43:51 PM EST
    just kidding.  

    Parent
    Oregon is working class white (none / 0) (#28)
    by Rashomon66 on Tue May 20, 2008 at 06:45:47 PM EST
    Another thing no one in the media is telling us.

    Oregon is 81% white and by per-capita income it is ranked 23rd in the nation. Ohio is 22nd and Pennsylvania is 24th.
    They are also more progressive but no less working class.

    You are wrong (none / 0) (#35)
    by Kathy on Tue May 20, 2008 at 06:51:12 PM EST
    Oregon was 90.5% white as of 2006.  I doubt it's changed drastically since then.  Or are you referring to white/non hispanic?

    Parent
    OR whites cited (none / 0) (#47)
    by Rashomon66 on Tue May 20, 2008 at 06:57:52 PM EST
    Got info on Oregon here. The Census Bureau web site.

    Parent
    When did the voting by mail start in Oregon? (none / 0) (#41)
    by Saul on Tue May 20, 2008 at 06:54:08 PM EST
    Looks like the majority would have already voted if it started a week ago.  If it just started then you would have to wait till tomorrow or the following day to get all the mail in ballots.

    Ballots went out to voters on May 2. (none / 0) (#65)
    by caseyOR on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:09:42 PM EST
    Postmarks don't count (none / 0) (#78)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:28:59 PM EST
    in Oregon.  Gotta have the ballot in by 8:00pm.


    Parent
    Chris Dodd was just on my TV (none / 0) (#84)
    by wasabi on Tue May 20, 2008 at 09:26:08 PM EST
    saying that he's not sure that the meeting on the 31st may not come to a decision.  He thinks they will not seat delegates if it changes the outcome at all and he thinks i'll come down to an offer to Clinton of both states being split 50-50.  If she doesn't take it, he said this could get ugly.

    50-50?