PPP NC Poll: Obama By 10
PPP's Final NC poll has Obama up 10, 53-43. The key data: Clinton wins whites 62-35 (61% of the vote). Obama win African Americans 84-11 (35% of the vote).
PPP has an interesting discussion about their turnout model:
Obviously how you choose to nail down that figure can have a pretty significant effect on your Presidential numbers when the electorate is so polarized along racial lines. We settled on 35%. We asked folks who were polled if they had voted early. Taking all of the respondents in our poll, if 40% of those who voted early were black then 35% of the population as a whole was.
In other words, they threw a dart. Keep this in mind when you hear about "scientific polling." That said, the poll feels right to me.
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