Morning Predictions: Thread One

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:13:47 AM EST
Tags: Indiana '08, North Carolina '08 (all tags)

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As we're following the news, I wonder how our expectations will change throughout the day as we hear from anchors, surrogates and pundits. Let's hear your early predictions for both states, with point spreads, and then we'll do another this mid-afternoon and this evening.

One winner from each prediction thread will get a present from TalkLeft (I'll have to figure out a fair way to choose if there's a tie.)

I'm also putting a poll below.

< Campaigns Temper Expectations | Today's Test For Obama >

Poll

Votes: 142
Results	\|	Other Polls

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Morning Predictions: Thread One | 129 comments (129 topical)

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I say she takes both (5.00 / 4) (#1)
by Capt Howdy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:15:31 AM EST

I like your spirit! (5.00 / 2) (#3)
by Shainzona on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:18:15 AM EST

Parent

were we supposed to do spreads? (5.00 / 2) (#6)
by Capt Howdy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:19:19 AM EST

Hillary in ID by 12
Hillary in NC by enough to win.

Parent

You rock, Capt Howdy! (5.00 / 1) (#8)
by madamab on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:20:20 AM EST

May it be so. :-)

Parent

: backatcha (none / 0) (#14)
by Capt Howdy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:23:13 AM EST

Parent

Yes, do spreads (none / 0) (#13)
by Jeralyn on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:23:10 AM EST

Parent

Split decision (none / 0) (#23)
by myiq2xu on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:25:50 AM EST

Obama takes NC +4

Hillary wins INdy +9

Parent

I might be in love with you. (none / 0) (#43)
by Lil on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:36:49 AM EST

Parent

Capt Howdy, that is. (none / 0) (#45)
by Lil on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:37:35 AM EST

Parent

: ha (5.00 / 1) (#74)
by Capt Howdy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:06:09 AM EST

maybe I should let you talk to my X

Parent

right on (none / 0) (#129)
by jedimom on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:01:40 PM EST

I like it

HRC takes IN by 10
HRC takes NC by 1

Parent

Ok jumping off the edge of the cliff... (5.00 / 1) (#2)
by Marvin42 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:16:24 AM EST

Hillary IN +11
Obama NC +7

Indiana: HRC +14 Nprth Car: HRC +1 (5.00 / 2) (#24)
by Exeter on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:26:52 AM EST

Prediction (5.00 / 2) (#29)
by Stellaaa on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:27:59 AM EST

Indiana: HIllary 10.4568906
NC: HIllary by 1.34566

Whatever SUSA says, but I don't like what they said about NC.

: this based on pi (5.00 / 1) (#38)
by Capt Howdy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:33:18 AM EST

or the fibonacci sequence?

Parent

My Predictions disappeared too (5.00 / 2) (#31)
by wasabi on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:28:52 AM EST

So let's see if I can remember them...

Hillary takes IN by 7.6352

Barack takes NC by 9.7834

: response (none / 0) (#48)
by adcatlett on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:40:23 AM EST

LOL ~ wow, 4 places out! Sounds like Huffpo when HRC won PA.

Parent

Prediction (5.00 / 3) (#36)
by dissenter on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:30:07 AM EST

I have to head back to Afghanistan next week so I am going to be very optimistic because nothing scares me more than BO in charge. So....

Indiana - Clinton 55 to 45 for BO
NC - Clinton 51 to 49 for BO

Stay safe (none / 0) (#82)
by wasabi on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:20:06 AM EST

My thoughts are with you.

Parent

: Thanks (5.00 / 1) (#85)
by dissenter on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:24:22 AM EST

I appreciate it. You know, I didn't post here when I was over there but just reading the blog got me through a lot of days. I will be thinking of all of you too. Hopefully I can post this time.

Parent

Best of luck (none / 0) (#107)
by Steve M on Tue May 06, 2008 at 11:31:19 AM EST

We all look forward to your safe return!

Parent

thank you (none / 0) (#130)
by jedimom on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:02:23 PM EST

and God Bless

Parent

Hillary takes NC by 2% (5.00 / 2) (#49)
by The Realist on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:40:24 AM EST

Hillary takes IN by 9.

I, truly believe, Hillary has turned NC.

prediction (5.00 / 1) (#50)
by candideinnc on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:41:20 AM EST

N.C Obama by 10 :(

Indiana Clinton by 8 :)

Prediction (5.00 / 1) (#60)
by lisadawn82 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:52:45 AM EST

Senator Clinton will win by 9.
Senator Obama will win NC by 8.

And then the press will tell us what a great loss it was for Senator Clinton today because she didn't pick up any more delegates against Senator Obama.

: IN by 9. Sorry (none / 0) (#61)
by lisadawn82 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:53:15 AM EST

nt

Parent

IN Clinton +10: NC Obama +3 (5.00 / 2) (#75)
by Leisa on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:07:13 AM EST

I a praying for her to take both! I think at the end of the day, we may be surprised to see the tide is turning and that the honeymoon may be almost over for Obama and the AA community.

We will see.

Okay Here Goes.... (5.00 / 1) (#78)
by PssttCmere08 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:09:15 AM EST

Indiana.....Hillary by 9.5%

North Carolina....Hillary by 2.3%

I don't care if HIllary wins by 7 votes, as long as she wins NC!!!

: If Hillary wins NC by 7 votes... (none / 0) (#113)
by stefystef on Tue May 06, 2008 at 11:47:52 AM EST

I think folks will go crazy... and I would be laughing like a nut.
It would be crazy, just crazy!

Parent

Predictions (5.00 / 1) (#93)
by Nadai on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:43:03 AM EST

Hillary by 11 in IN
Obama by 6 in NC

But I'm hoping the KUSA poll results are accurate.

Here's what I'm hoping for (5.00 / 1) (#122)
by cymro on Tue May 06, 2008 at 01:07:17 PM EST

I use this calculator:

North Carolina
-- Black Turnout 35% (BTD's estimate)
-- Clinton 20% of AA
-- Clinton 66.66% of other
Clinton Wins by 0.6% (50.3% to 49.7%)

Indiana
-- Black Turnout 11% (BTD's estimate)
-- Clinton 20% of AA
-- Clinton 62.5% of other
Clinton wins by 15.6% (57.8% to 42.2%)

Since BO has been telling us that this is a time for Hope and Change, I figure it's OK to hope for a big change in the media's perception of Hillary, beginning today.

I'm also hoping to watch the Obama Fans on CNN and MSNBC spluttering in confusion.

I Don't Have Access To The News (none / 0) (#4)
by flashman on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:18:25 AM EST

during the day. I fear that Hillary will win a slimmer victory in IN than Obama wins in NC. This is her ( yet again ) last stand. BTW, I heard that after today, there are fewer delagates at stake than there are SD's. It seems that the candidates will be expending more efforts inside the beltway than on the campaign trail.

I think I'll start drinking heavily.

Not having the News during the day (5.00 / 2) (#32)
by Militarytracy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:28:54 AM EST

A way to remain rational for eight hours.

Parent

That's pundit talk (none / 0) (#16)
by AnninCA on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:23:23 AM EST

I dunno about Obama, because I don't track him. But Hillary worked her tail off in both NC and IN.

However she does, I'm content. She gave it 100% and more. And Bill hit his stride, too. So whatever happens, happens....but it won't be because she didn't put the effort into it.

Parent

I Don't Discount Hillary's Efforts (none / 0) (#22)
by flashman on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:25:38 AM EST

I was talking about AFTER the elections today.

Parent

: Oh......gotcha now (none / 0) (#37)
by AnninCA on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:33:16 AM EST

Parent

Presents! (none / 0) (#5)
by liminal on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:19:00 AM EST

Prediction:

Indiana: HRC +6
North Carolina: BHO +8

Hope:

Indiana: HRC +11
North Carolina: BHO +2

My comments keep disappearing...test (none / 0) (#7)
by madamab on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:19:34 AM EST

if this comes through:

HRC wins IN by 10+
Obama wins NC by 2-5%

Oh.....mine disappeared, too. (none / 0) (#9)
by AnninCA on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:21:03 AM EST

Obama by 6 in NC.
Hillary by 10 in NC.

(I suggest a "I'm not bitter" T-shirt for the winner. :) )

Correction (none / 0) (#19)
by AnninCA on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:24:31 AM EST

Hillary by 10 in Indiana.

Parent

I haven't deleted any comments (none / 0) (#20)
by Jeralyn on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:24:56 AM EST

if your's disappears, repost and say so here, I'll have Colin our webmaster check it out. He's voting this morning in N.C., but will be available if we need him the rest of today and tonight

Parent

: Weirdness going on today (none / 0) (#27)
by flashman on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:27:41 AM EST

I've had to make multiple attempts to post this morning. Could be any number of things going on, but might also just be heavy traffic.

Parent
: I lost my first 4 tries (none / 0) (#30)
by myiq2xu on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:28:18 AM EST

at posting a comment on the this thread.
It finally went thru when I replied to one instead of making a new "parent"

Parent

Awwww, so they both are winning (none / 0) (#21)
by BarnBabe on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:25:00 AM EST

But she is winning more? Ha. I will go with Hillary in Indiana by 6, and NC to BHO buy 4.

Parent

Before A Site Moderator Gets All Upset (none / 0) (#33)
by flashman on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:28:57 AM EST

You're not allowed to use Obama's initials on here. I give you this advise in a much kinder way than the site 'officials' will.

Parent

Thanks, but I think the full initials are ok (none / 0) (#81)
by BarnBabe on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:18:43 AM EST

I have been using BHO (rather than the shorter version which I find offensive to even Obama) and HRC for some time now. I believe their full initials are quite respectful and acceptable. BTD will slap me in place if not so. Heh.

Parent

I was trying to avoid you getting the smackdown (none / 0) (#83)
by flashman on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:20:33 AM EST

that I got for doing the same thing. Of course, I happened to be disagreeing with BTD when that occured.

Parent

Where you using BHO (none / 0) (#121)
by BarnBabe on Tue May 06, 2008 at 12:48:50 PM EST

or the shorter version which is disrespectful? I might not like Obama, but I am not going to call him names or put him down. OK, he has no substance. Ha.

Parent

: Yes, I was using BHO (none / 0) (#126)
by flashman on Tue May 06, 2008 at 01:57:09 PM EST

Evidently, we are children.
What IS out of bounds at this site is reference to Obama's middle name. Do not do it again.

Parent

To be fair (none / 0) (#90)
by cmugirl on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:37:06 AM EST

you could write HDRC (her middle name is Diane)

:)

Parent

Predictions. (none / 0) (#10)
by LarryInNYC on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:22:26 AM EST

NC: Obama by 11.
IN: Clinton by 6.

(Sorry y'all -- as I see it).

Hillary wins (none / 0) (#11)
by mikeyleigh on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:22:37 AM EST

Indiana by 12, loses NC by 3.

Hey, no fair copycat (none / 0) (#17)
by Militarytracy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:23:52 AM EST

Parent

: I forgot to add the (5.00 / 2) (#92)
by mikeyleigh on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:41:18 AM EST

most important part of my predictions for tonight. Two minutes after the polls close in NC, MSNBC calls it for Obama and Hillary lose by 3. On the other hand, MSNBC will say that Indiana remains too close to call and will wait until 95% of the vote is in before acknowledging that Hillary wins by 12.

Parent

Can we have a prediction contest.... (none / 0) (#12)
by kdog on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:22:58 AM EST

about something important...like when oil will hit 200 a barrel, or where the first all-out gas riot will take place?

Whoever wins....Clinton/Obama or McCain...we're still on the road to tyranny and a world of economic hurt...this election barely rates as newsworthy to me anymore. We've got real problems to worry about, who cares about the illusion of choice?

let me guess kdog: (5.00 / 1) (#47)
by cpinva on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:38:09 AM EST

black helicopters have been spotted hovering just above your house? j/k!

IN - sen. clinton 10+
NC - sen. obama 2

i like the "i'm bitter" t-shirt idea as present for the winner. might i add: "give me my gun, bible and a glass of chardonnay too!"?

Parent

Not hovering.... (none / 0) (#53)
by kdog on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:44:37 AM EST

luckily, they just cruise by with their heat sensors and god knows what other instruments of tyranny:)

And I want my "I'm bitter" T-shirt to read "Give me my OTB voucher, a copy of Exile on Main St., and a spliff":)

Parent

lol* (none / 0) (#56)
by AnninCA on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:50:16 AM EST

OK, you get the I'm Bitter T-shirt, and we'll take the I'm NOT Bitter one. :)

Cheer up. Politics is sort of fun stuff. Admit now. You're enjoying us.

Parent

I'm here everyday.... (none / 0) (#86)
by kdog on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:27:00 AM EST

so yeah, I get a kick out of everybody:)

Still pining for the old TL where we mostly discussed issues, and only occasionally got into election politics. I wonder, will all the newcomers still be here after the popularity contest is over?

Only a few more months till November...I can't wait till this circus is over.

Parent

I second and third that Kdog (none / 0) (#116)
by Jlvngstn on Tue May 06, 2008 at 12:24:35 PM EST

this election has hijacked the real issues! I have not been to NY in months, need to make the trip, I need my pie....

Parent

: Better hurry J.... (none / 0) (#119)
by kdog on Tue May 06, 2008 at 12:34:12 PM EST

with the price of bread and cheese, the NY staple slice of pizza may soon be out of my budget, and I'm supposed to treat:)
This rapid inflation is making me feel old, I was telling my nephew about when you could get a slice and a coke for a buck...I only just turned 30 last year for christ sake, I shouldn't sound like a grandfather talking about the "good old days" yet...lol

Parent

Oil will hit $200 a barrel (none / 0) (#91)
by cmugirl on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:39:41 AM EST

The day after John McCain wins against Obama in the fall. Prices will stay high until inauguration day (Bush and Cheney have to make some investment money since they will be losing paychecks, and their cronies will have to make as much money as possible until a new government is in place and a new Congress that actually might do some work after the election silly season is over).

The first gas riot will take place around Christmas time - instead of new sweaters for Uncle Joe, he'll get a can of gas.

Parent

: I think.... (none / 0) (#94)
by kdog on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:46:13 AM EST

200 a barrell hits around Thanksgiving, as heating oil demand kicks in and people travel for the holiday. Hopefully after Steve Kissing pulls off the mega-upset!
I think we'll see a gas station burn down before then...I say Labor Day.
Thanks for playing!

Parent

My prediction (none / 0) (#15)
by Militarytracy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:23:19 AM EST

Indiana: HRC +12
North Carolina: Obama +3

Just pulling momentum out of my posterior.

Heh. (5.00 / 2) (#25)
by madamab on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:27:06 AM EST

Feel the PennsylMentum!

Parent

ID is the new PN (5.00 / 1) (#28)
by Capt Howdy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:27:57 AM EST

NC is the new TX

;-)

Parent

That's IN (where they need IDs) :-) (none / 0) (#46)
by Cream City on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:37:55 AM EST

Parent

: And PA (none / 0) (#52)
by madamab on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:42:06 AM EST

not PN.
But we loves ya anyway! ;-)

Parent

I am so bad at this, but here goes: (none / 0) (#18)
by Anne on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:23:56 AM EST

Indiana: Hillary +9

North Carolina: Obama +4

My margin of error is always in Hillary's favor, so it could be Hillary by 12 in Indiana, and Obama by such a slim margin in NC that it really is a win for Hillary.

I think one thing is certain (none / 0) (#26)
by Capt Howdy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:27:14 AM EST

tomorrow we will have a much better lay of the land.

predictions (none / 0) (#34)
by seesdifferent on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:29:01 AM EST

Indiana: HRC by 6
NC: BO by 9

Here's Mine (none / 0) (#35)
by Saul on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:29:07 AM EST

Indiana Hilary +10 with a 3 point spread

North Carolina Obama +6 with a 2 point spread

I'll show my work (none / 0) (#39)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:33:34 AM EST

Indiana -

Clinton gets 60% of the white and other vote (89% of the electorate) for 53.4% plus 10% of the African American vote (11% of the electorate) for 1.1% for a total of 54.5% to Obama's 45.5%.

Thus Clinton by 9 in Indiana.

North Carolina -

Clinton gets 62% of the white and "other" vote (65% of the electorate) for 40.3% plus 10% of the African American vote (35% of the electorate) for 3.5% for a total of 43.8% to Obama's 56.2%.

Obama by 12.4% in North Carolina.

: Super achievers... (none / 0) (#40)
by Stellaaa on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:34:47 AM EST

always showing off.

Parent
: Where were u BTD? (none / 0) (#58)
by txpolitico67 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:51:28 AM EST

when I needed a tutor for my Probable Statistics class in college?

Parent
: you do work tirelessly here (none / 0) (#118)
by Jlvngstn on Tue May 06, 2008 at 12:26:09 PM EST

it is appreciated, most of the time.

Parent
: I'll riff off of this a bit... (none / 0) (#127)
by tree on Tue May 06, 2008 at 02:11:25 PM EST

In Indiana, I'll give Clinton 62% of the non-black vote(using all your electorate % numbers) and 12% of the black vote for a 56.5 to 43.5 total, giving Clinton a 13 point win.
In North Carolina, I'll use your electorate percentages again, and give Clinton 63% of the non-black vote and 11% of the black vote for a 44.9 total to Obama's 55.1 total, giving Obama a 10.2 percent win.
I also predict that the usual suspects will round 44.9 down to 44 and 55.1 up to 56 and declare that Obama got an 12 point win, thus "almost completely offsetting Clinton's Indiana win, proving once again that she can't possibly win the nomination, and WWTSBQ."

Parent

Obama by 6.25 in NC, Clinton by 8.5 in IN (none / 0) (#41)
by thomphool on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:35:32 AM EST

Obama puts up a big lead in the NC early vote, which will end up being about 30% of the overall vote. Clinton, through Ace Smith's organization keeps the margin on election day proper close leading to the unweighted exit polls being wildly off (again). In Indiana, Obama's organization in Lake and Monroe counties turn out more votes than expected, cutting into Clinton's margin a bit.

The media is confused by "Who won?"

O + 15 in NC, O + 3 in IN (none / 0) (#42)
by magster on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:36:01 AM EST

and send some help to Myanmar

Prediction (none / 0) (#44)
by adcatlett on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:37:19 AM EST

IN:

HRC ~ by 7

NC:

BHO ~ by 3

I will guess (none / 0) (#51)
by txpolitico67 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:41:38 AM EST

IN: HRC +7
NC: BHO +8

I think that with the Chicago media market so close to IN and the crush of campaigning done in NC by WJC, this is going to be a nail-biter.

voting in NC (none / 0) (#54)
by candideinnc on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:45:28 AM EST

Despite my sad prediction, I was at my small town voting center this a.m. It is the biggest turnout I have ever seen here. To my surprise, there were very, very few blacks voting. They constitute about 25 percent of the population here. It may be that they couldn't get out of work to vote at that hour, but my partner says at 7:30, the situation was the same. I do think the white voter is highly motivated at this point.

Way cool...... (none / 0) (#59)
by AnninCA on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:51:53 AM EST

They say look at the turn-out at 6-2-8. (or something like that.)

Peak voting times, I take it.

Parent

: 8? I read polls close earlier than that (none / 0) (#84)
by Cream City on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:20:49 AM EST

in NC. Or maybe that was in part of IN, since it's in two time zones. I did see that there will be several different poll closing times tonight across two states and several time zones. So that means my prediction is this: I will be maddest at the networks for again "leaking" exit polls before real polls close, trying to mess with democracy in every way that the media can do right through to the end.

Parent

I think some AAs are sitting out (none / 0) (#67)
by Leisa on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:59:35 AM EST

Parent

40% early voters AA... (none / 0) (#73)
by ineedalife on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:05:39 AM EST

according to the pollsters. Perhaps that explains it.

Parent

They split (none / 0) (#55)
by jameslove on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:46:55 AM EST

Obama by 10 in NC, Hillary by < 5 in Indiana.

I'm not greedy. (none / 0) (#57)
by pie on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:50:18 AM EST

Hillary will win Indiana by 10, but she doesn't have to win NC by more than 3.

My predictions (none / 0) (#62)
by riddlerandy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:54:12 AM EST

NC: BO 55.5 HC 45.5 (or O)bama by 11, if other candidates are on the ballot)

IN: BO 49.5 HC: 50.5 (or Hillary by 1 if other candidates on the ballot)

BTW, is Edwards still on the ballot in NC?

wow.. (none / 0) (#106)
by p lukasiak on Tue May 06, 2008 at 11:30:44 AM EST

Is diebold doing your predictions for North Carolina? ;-)

Parent

: Diebold doesnt like me (none / 0) (#115)
by riddlerandy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 12:14:36 PM EST

Parent

Clinton went about the Wright (none / 0) (#63)
by Danbury on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:56:43 AM EST

thing the wrong way.

She should have framed it that Obama was abandoning the AA community and one of its churches for political expediency (which would have been true, actually).

In other words, Obama divorced himself from a church the black community LIKED. Why?

AAs should feel that Obama dissed them over this issue, something he's done before as well.

Dems are about to pick the wrong person, IMO. And the only reasons I've seen given by SDs for supporting Obama are 1) they spoke to their 12 yr. old; 2) "Obama can unite the country.

Really? Have they taken a stroll through even the liberal blogs? Try being a Clinton supporter at HuffPo or FDL. Ain't pretty. Ain't no unity. Ironically, Hillary's supporters are far more civil.

: Clinton did the smart thing by ignoring... (none / 0) (#110)
by p lukasiak on Tue May 06, 2008 at 11:33:59 AM EST

the second coming of the Wright controversy.
Nobody needed to be told what the Wright controversy meant, and had she gone the way you suggest, she would have lost votes in the AA community because that community doesn't want to be told what to think about the Wright debacle.

Parent

Not reading any of your predictions yet (none / 0) (#64)
by hitchhiker on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:58:04 AM EST

I say she takes Indiana by 8 and he takes NC by 3.

I WANT her to take NC by 2 votes and Indiana by 12.

Hillary "wins" (none / 0) (#65)
by gandy007 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:58:07 AM EST

A decisive win in Indiana and a courageous comeback
in NC highlighted by the genius of Hillary's closer and Bill's marathon work in the small towns will be the storyline.

Bill also made a difference in Indiana, but simply couldn't go to as many places as in NC.

Indiana - Hillary by 8

NC - Obama by 3

I'm really wanting to say Hillary by 10 in Indiana, but I'll stick to 8 so I can jump for joy when she wins by double digits there.

Hmm. (none / 0) (#66)
by Iphie on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:58:23 AM EST

I've no idea, but I see this as sort of an OH/TX kind of day. I see NC as a squeaker, with Hillary prevailing, and IN going solidly for her, but not as big as OH, due to Barack's nearby hometown advantage.

IN - HRC +7 NC - HRC +.5

: I should add (none / 0) (#69)
by Iphie on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:01:59 AM EST

that whatever happens in NC, I think it will be close enough that it will not give either of them an appreciable boost in the popular vote, and that Hillary's win in IN will be where we see the margins change.

Parent

IN-Clinton by 7%, NC-Obama by 5% (none / 0) (#68)
by Doc Rock on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:59:46 AM EST

I guessed (none / 0) (#70)
by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:02:23 AM EST

Penn almost to a tee (said Hillary by 9.5%). My rationale was that it would give both sides something to argue.

Now I'm trying to figure out what would be the most mutually-arguable point in NC/IN. And I think I'm back to that 9.5 number, given that each has to argue that they took double digits and held the other to below double digits.

NC: Obama by 9.5
IN: Hillary by 9.5

: BTW: (none / 0) (#77)
by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:08:10 AM EST

I'm not basing my predictions on demographics or anything scientific like that. Instead, they are based purely on the irony of indecisive victories that have been the norm in this election.

Parent

IN:HRC 54-BO 46, NC:HRC 50.5-BO 49.5 (none / 0) (#71)
by ineedalife on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:03:07 AM EST

This is why I always lose NCAA bracket pools. I go with my heart, not my head.

Prediction: (none / 0) (#72)
by mg7505 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:05:03 AM EST

NC: Obama by 7.5

ID: Clinton by 5.5

Mine (none / 0) (#76)
by MaryGM on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:07:35 AM EST

IN: Hillary by 10
NC: Obama by 8, at least (I want to paint a happier picture than that, but unlike James Brown and Claire McCaskill, I do not feel good.)

Posted but it didn't show up (none / 0) (#79)
by jen on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:15:05 AM EST

Try again:

Hillary wins Indiana by 12
Hillary wins North Carolina by 5

+4 for Obama in NC, +15 for Hillary in IN. (none / 0) (#80)
by MarkL on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:15:07 AM EST

Predictions (none / 0) (#87)
by ding7777 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:30:27 AM EST

IN: Hillary +8

NC: Obama +6

Real predictive value (none / 0) (#88)
by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:36:12 AM EST

will come from how thin Olbermann's lips are and how much spittle Tweety generates, once the first exit polls come in.

: Haha! (none / 0) (#95)
by Lady in Blue on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:46:55 AM EST

Awesome comment. I agree.

Parent
: its venom not spittle (none / 0) (#104)
by Capt Howdy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 11:20:03 AM EST

and yes
I wish I wish I wish I was at home to watch the body language.

Parent

predictions (none / 0) (#89)
by Jlvngstn on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:36:52 AM EST

Hillary by 5 in Ind
Obama by 7 in NC

My predictions, Hillary by 12 in Indy... (none / 0) (#96)
by Maria Garcia on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:47:54 AM EST

..Obama by 3 in North Carolina. Although I'd be ecstatic if Hillary took both.

The magic 8-ball says (none / 0) (#98)
by NotThatStupid on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:53:13 AM EST

INDIANA:

Clinton: 56%
Obama: 44%

NORTH CAROLINA

Obama: 53%
Clinton: 47%

Prediction (none / 0) (#100)
by kaffied on Tue May 06, 2008 at 11:02:30 AM EST

Hillary by 12 in IN
HIllary by 3 in NC

I'm late! (none / 0) (#101)
by andgarden on Tue May 06, 2008 at 11:03:31 AM EST

My prediction: IN: Hillary by 10, North Carolina: Obama by 7.

: Yes, you certainly are. (none / 0) (#109)
by oculus on Tue May 06, 2008 at 11:33:42 AM EST

I had to "search" for you!!

Parent

Sweep(barely) (none / 0) (#102)
by CA JAY on Tue May 06, 2008 at 11:04:28 AM EST

IN= Obama +1
NC= Obama +15

2nd try to post... (none / 0) (#103)
by oldpro on Tue May 06, 2008 at 11:10:29 AM EST

Ind...Clinton by 9
SC....Obama by 6

Hope I'm wrong and she blasts him out of the water in both states...doubt it though...

try again (none / 0) (#105)
by p lukasiak on Tue May 06, 2008 at 11:29:05 AM EST

IN Clinton +9.3%
NC Obama +3.6%

: That is bold. (none / 0) (#111)
by oculus on Tue May 06, 2008 at 11:34:22 AM EST

Parent

Hmm (none / 0) (#108)
by Steve M on Tue May 06, 2008 at 11:32:57 AM EST

I will predict Hillary by 6 in Indiana and Obama by 8 in NC.

Okay, I'll try again..Hillary will win BOTH (none / 0) (#112)
by vicsan on Tue May 06, 2008 at 11:40:52 AM EST

My first prediction post disappeared.

Hillary will win Indiana by 7 and NC by 3. I think the pollsters are underestimating the tiny towns in NC where Bill Clinton has pulled HUGE crowds and has been vigorously campaigning. They, like in PA, have not taken those NC voters into account. Hillary will win NC just like she did PA.

My post got disappeared by the TL Ghost (none / 0) (#114)
by shoephone on Tue May 06, 2008 at 12:12:07 PM EST

Indiana:

Hillary 56
Barack 44
(HRC +12)

North Carolina:
Barack 54
Hillary 46
(BHO +8)

Sneaking in for the prize (none / 0) (#117)
by CoralGables on Tue May 06, 2008 at 12:25:03 PM EST

Indiana - Clinton by 8.8
North Carolina - Obama by 4.2

Prediction for tonight... (none / 0) (#120)
by Liberty4 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 12:47:21 PM EST

IN: HRC 55%, BHO 45%

NC: HRC 51%, BHO 49%

I think she wins BOTH and tomorrow morning gets verrrrrrry interesting indeed.

my guestimate (none / 0) (#123)
by otherlisa on Tue May 06, 2008 at 01:13:44 PM EST

HRC - Indiana by 7%
BHO - NC by 4%

I got PA for Clinton by 10 right... (none / 0) (#124)
by Fultron on Tue May 06, 2008 at 01:21:20 PM EST

so for two more wild guesses:

IN - Clinton by 6%
NC - Obama by 6%

O.K. Here Goes (none / 0) (#125)
by MO Blue on Tue May 06, 2008 at 01:26:12 PM EST

I'm so bad at this

IN Clinton by 8

NC Obama by 9

Since I'm always wrong I hope it is more like

IN Clinton by 11

NC Obama by 3

My predictions (none / 0) (#128)
by g8grl on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:13:25 PM EST

Clinton in Indiana by 10
Clinton in NC by 4

Explanation: People have been telling the pollsters that their vote won't be affected by Wright but they think other peoples will not vote for Obama because of Wright. This is the same as people asking their doctor for a "friend" that has a rash. Maybe people would like to think they are enlightened enough not to be offended by Wright, but when picking a President, they will not choose someone who has ? marks where his values should be. I think it's likely that Obama won't get 90% of the 35% of the AA vote, or that the AA vote won't come out for someone who has made them look bad by exposing some of their extremists.

NC-Obama +2 : IN-Hillary +6 (none / 0) (#131)
by DeborahNC on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:45:08 PM EST

Morning Predictions: Thread One | 129 comments (129 topical)

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♦	NC: Obama by More Than 10	8%
♦	NC: Obama by 5-10	25%
♦	NC: Obama by 1-5	35%
♦	Hillary Wins	26%