Tag: North Carolina '08

Public Policy Polling has a new North Carolina poll out. It's Obama 47, McCain 45 and Bob Barr 2. Full poll results are here.

Independents are moving toward Obama in droves. Where last week he had a 42-39 advantage with them, now he is up 48-37. He also now receives 36% of the white vote, up from 33%. He will likely need 35-38% in that demographic to win the state, depending on how high turnout from black voters is.

TwinMom at MyDD has an interesting diary up comparing Obama's win in Virginia to North Carolina:

Obama won Virginia by 28 points and North Carolina by 14. What's different, given the similar voter demographics?

Using exit poll data here and here from the NY Times, TwinMom shows the percentages of white men, white women, black men and black women voters were very similar but the results were not:

• In Virginia, Obama won 67% of White Men. In North Carolina only 40%

• In Virginia, Obama won 45% of White Women , in North Carolina only 33%.

• In Virginia, Obama won 93% of Black Men and 85% of Black Women. In North Carolina, he won 91% of Black Men and Black Women.

The conclusion: [More...]

Of course, he said her "apparent" win, but I think it was a concession.

Is anyone watching Obama? He's speakng now.

9:41 pm: Indiana vote: Almost 950,000 votes in, Hillary has 52%, Obama 48%. Fox and CNN still have not called it.

Comments now closed, new threads are up.

Our servers crashed for a half hour or so. We're back now.

Update: 830,000 votes are in and Fox and CNN are still not calling it. Hillary now has 53% of the vote. Gary (Lake County) is not in. I don't agree that Gary, Indiana makes the difference between a win and a loss. We'll see.

Let's continue. In Indiana, more than 650,000 votes are in and Hillary is holding her 54%, 8 point lead.

CBS has called Indiana for Hillary Clinton. The media and Obama's campaign are focused on North Carolina, the outcome of which was never in doubt. They are trying to make it sound like Hillary's votes are Rush Limbaugh generated.

Hillary got 59% of the white vote in North Carolina according to the exit polls. David Axlerod claims Obama got 65% of the white voters under age 65. Can both of those be correct? [Comments now closed.]

CNN calls North Carolina for Obama as soon as the polls closed. I'm still following Indiana, as i think that's the more important state for Hillary Clinton, but I'll post results here. You can keep each other updated in comments.

BTD will do a separate thread with new exit poll data from N.C.

Update: First polls in Indiana close in 4 minutes. I'll start a new thread.

Update: CNN exit polls: Liberal Dems are going for Obama, conservative for Dems for Hillary.

Update: 200,000 new voters in Indiana. No voting problems. Economy is most important issue, 54% of them going for Clinton. North Carolina: No voting problems. Dem. Party Chair Jerry Meek says Obama will win by single digits.

Update: CNN: Hillary's support among African American voters in both states in single digits. She's getting 8% in Indiana and 6% in North Carolina. ABC report on early exit polls here.

Fox has the exit polls in hand. I'll live blog: Working class vote: In both states they are going for Hillary. Indiana, 65% white voters no college for Hillary, 34% for Obama. NC 67% of this group for Hillary.

More....

I asked this morning how our expectations will change throughout the day as we hear from anchors, surrogates and pundits. Your early predictions are here. What do you say now? Let's hear your afternoon predictions for both states, with point spreads.

One winner from each prediction thread will get a present from TalkLeft (I'll have to figure out a fair way to choose if there's a tie.)

An Indiana poll is below, you can still vote here in the North Carolina poll. [More...]

As we're following the news, I wonder how our expectations will change throughout the day as we hear from anchors, surrogates and pundits. Let's hear your early predictions for both states, with point spreads, and then we'll do another this mid-afternoon and this evening.

One winner from each prediction thread will get a present from TalkLeft (I'll have to figure out a fair way to choose if there's a tie.)

I'm also putting a poll below.

Update (9:50 am MT): George Stephanopoulous on the campaigns' predictions:

Obama's supporters suggested to Stephanopoulos that Clinton would win in Indiana by as much as eight points, and Clinton's camp hinted that Obama would win by as much as 10 points in North Carolina. If either of those margins are trimmed, the loser will likely claim some sort of upset victory.

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Terry McCauliffe was on Fox News this morning with Bill Hemmer. Hemmer said word is from Drudge that Clinton advisors say Obama will take N.C. by 15 points. He asked Terry if he's hearing those numbers and if he thinks Hillary can win that state. McCauliffe said he's never spoken to Drudge in his life and he hasn't heard those numbers.

A new Insider Advantage poll from North Carolina was released this afternoon. It was taken yesterday and shows Hillary and Barack Obama in a statistical dead heat: Obama 48%, Hillary 45%. Undecided: 7%.

Actual poll results are here.

InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery: “Really interesting dynamics at play here. Clinton has increased her lead among white voters to 58% - very close to the 60% plus level needed to pull off a victory. She now leads among those who say they are Democrats but has started to trail among Unaffiliated voters, who are allowed to participate in Tuesday’s election. Additionally, African-American voters are not quite as solid with Obama as they have been, at least based on previous exit polls. Clinton has remained in the upper teens (17%) of African-American support in our recent surveys. African-American turnout will be the key to this race. Our poll is based on a turnout model of 35% African-American vote. Anything under that number could give Clinton a shocking upset. But Indiana has become a true horserace that should concern the Clinton camp."

Update: The new SUSA poll out today confirms that delegate-wise, North Carolina is pretty meaningless:

There is no foreseeable outcome in North Carolina, regardless of which candidate wins the popular vote, where one candidate collects significantly more convention delegates than the other.

Therefore, the exact final vote totals have much more symbolic importance than real importance.

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Congressional Quarterly (CQ Politics) says even if Obama wins North Carolina, he is likely only to gain 3 more delegates than Hillary at the District level. Of North Carolina's 134 delegates to the national convention, 77 are district delegates.

Despite Obama's eight-point advantage in recent North Carolina polls, CQ Politics forecasts a gain of only three district-level delegates in tomorrow's primary.

More...

A tv reporter tonight said Hillary Clinton is heading back to North Carolina tonight. Bill Clinton will make 11 stops there tomorrow and Hillary will make 2. (Here's how hard Bill's been working --3,500 came out to see him in Morganton today.)

The Obamas will also be in North Carolina, campaigning in Durham and Fayetteville.

What does it mean that both candidates are spending the day before the NC and IN primaries in NC?

There are 72 pledged delegates at stake in Indiana and 115 in North Carolina. Indiana hasn't voted for a Democratic president since Lyndon Johnson in 1964. North Carolina voted for Bush in 2000 and 2004 (by 13% and 12%). Even native son John Edwards on the ticket didn't matter. Since 1964, the Democratic Presidential ticket has carried N.C. only for Carter-Mondale in 1976..

Here are the latest voter stats, as of May 3, for North Carolina. As for Indiana, the New York Times explains it's very complicated. Maybe that's why the polls are so divergent.

Update: Comments now closed, new thread is here.