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Afternoon Predictions: Thread Two

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:53:26 PM EST
Tags: Indiana '08, North Carolina '08 (all tags)
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I asked this morning how our expectations will change throughout the day as we hear from anchors, surrogates and pundits. Your early predictions are here. What do you say now? Let's hear your afternoon predictions for both states, with point spreads.

One winner from each prediction thread will get a present from TalkLeft (I'll have to figure out a fair way to choose if there's a tie.)

An Indiana poll is below, you can still vote here in the North Carolina poll. [More...]

< Tonight is Not Just About Delegates | Exit Polls: Thread One >

Poll

Who Wins Indiana?
♦ Hillary by more than 10 35%
♦ Hillary by 5 to 10 60%
♦ Hillary by 1 to 5 1%
♦ Obama 2%

Votes: 79
Results | Other Polls

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    Afternoon Predictions: Thread Two | 38 comments (38 topical)

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    For Donna Brazile (5.00 / 1) (#11)
    by bjorn on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:02:14 PM EST
    Hillary by 10 in NC and by 2 in NC!

    oops (none / 0) (#12)
    by bjorn on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:02:36 PM EST
    got too excited, by 10 in IN

    Parent
    Out on a limb here (5.00 / 1) (#14)
    by americanincanada on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:03:45 PM EST
    Indiana - Clinton by 9-10%
    NC - Clinton by 2%

    Man I hope it would be that good (none / 0) (#16)
    by Mrwirez on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:06:42 PM EST
    GOOOOO HILLARY!

    Parent
    faith (5.00 / 1) (#15)
    by jedimom on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:05:45 PM EST
    on faith in Hill Bill and the voters

    I am going for

    Hillary by 10 in IN
    and Hillary by 1 in NC

    Crystal Ball Speaks (5.00 / 1) (#19)
    by View from a broad on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:08:57 PM EST
    Indiana:  Hillary wins by 10 pts.

    N. Carolina:  Hillary wins by 5 pts.

    KUSA holds (4.75 / 4) (#2)
    by Kathy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:55:51 PM EST
    though Certain Elements have tried to influence-unduly, I feel-the turn-out model:

    Clinton by 9% in IN and by 3-4% in NC.

    Our girl is a fighter, and she's just getting started.  Next stop, the White House!

    I like your predictions! (none / 0) (#8)
    by Shainzona on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:59:56 PM EST
    Hope they come true!!!!

    Parent
    yes (none / 0) (#23)
    by Capt Howdy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:32:45 PM EST


    Parent
    sorry (none / 0) (#26)
    by Capt Howdy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:44:46 PM EST
    I will take this opportunity to modify my earlier rosy predictions.
    Hillary by 9 in IN
    Hillary by 1 on NC

    Parent
    I predict indecisive victory (4.00 / 1) (#4)
    by catfish on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:57:27 PM EST
    for one of the two candidates. And an indecisive loss for his or her opponent.

    Also: much spinning in the fallout.

    I'll agree with the spinning part. (5.00 / 1) (#17)
    by madamab on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:06:47 PM EST
    But that's the easiest prediction of all!

    Parent
    Slight revision-IN Hillary +8 : NC Obama +1 (4.00 / 1) (#30)
    by DeborahNC on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:01:02 PM EST


    yeah (none / 0) (#31)
    by Capt Howdy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:03:24 PM EST
    have to admit
    he may take it by a hair.
    but that will be losing.

    Parent
    Absolutely! She could still pull out a .5-1% win. (none / 0) (#36)
    by DeborahNC on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:17:12 PM EST


    Parent
    clinton by 7 (none / 0) (#1)
    by Turkana on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:55:38 PM EST
    and obama by 12

    In IN, Clinton by 10 (none / 0) (#3)
    by andgarden on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:56:23 PM EST
    in NC, Obama by 11.

    Clinton by 9 in Indiana and (none / 0) (#6)
    by Shainzona on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:58:46 PM EST
    BO by 8 in NC.

    I stick by my earlier predictions. (none / 0) (#7)
    by madamab on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:59:26 PM EST
    HRC wins IN by 10+
    Obama wins NC by 2-5

    Of course, I'm usually wrong about percentages and stuff. But I refuse to change my ideas based on such silly things as facts. ;-)

    Clinton by 11 (none / 0) (#9)
    by DJ on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:00:32 PM EST
    and Clinton by 1

    Yeah that's right! n/t (none / 0) (#13)
    by DJ on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:02:45 PM EST


    Parent
    one out of two (none / 0) (#10)
    by dugan49 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:01:33 PM EST
    the poll consensus is always right. Clinton wins Indiana by 3 or 4 pts .    Obama wins N.C. by 8 or 9.

    Wish I had better news.

    If that hapens, it is over and (none / 0) (#21)
    by kenosharick on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:21:07 PM EST
    Indiana & N.C. just gave the general election to mccain.

    Parent
    Looking At The Daily Tracking Polls: (none / 0) (#18)
    by flashman on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:07:47 PM EST
    I'm picking;

    Hillary by 11 in IN

    Obamam by 8 in NC

    here goes nothin' (none / 0) (#20)
    by tworivers on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:14:00 PM EST
    Obama by 6 in NC, Hillary by 8 in IN
    I had a different prediction earlier (none / 0) (#22)
    by tree on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:31:45 PM EST
    but here's one pulled out my posterior.

    IN-Clinton by 4%
    NC-Obama by 6%

    My "Chatter Poll" prediction (none / 0) (#24)
    by FLVoter on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:34:47 PM EST
    NC - Obama by 5 to 7
    IN - Clinton 8 to 10

    I see (none / 0) (#25)
    by jen on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:41:43 PM EST
    Clinton by 12 in Indiana
    Clinton by 5 in North Carolina

    Light a candle for Hillary at the HRC group:

    HERE.

    Still holding on (none / 0) (#27)
    by Anne on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:46:30 PM EST
    for Hillary +9 in Indiana
    Obama by <3 in NC

    Willing to go +12 and Obama by <1 as my margin of error always works in Hill's favor.

    Here's hoping :) (none / 0) (#28)
    by nashville on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:51:28 PM EST
    IN - Hillary by 11
    NC - Hillary by 2

    How About . . . (none / 0) (#29)
    by marirebel on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:57:57 PM EST
    Hillary wins both!

    IN:  Hillary by 8
    NC:  Hillary by 1

    OK- I'm out there (none / 0) (#32)
    by PlayInPeoria on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:07:02 PM EST
    Indiana - Clinton by 13%
    NC - Clinton by 4%

    NC close of delegates

    Here Goes (none / 0) (#33)
    by MO Blue on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:07:06 PM EST
    IN Clinton by 8
    NC Obama by 12

    There are still alot of people voting here in (none / 0) (#34)
    by DeborahNC on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:14:32 PM EST
    Orange Co., NC. There was a very long line winding around a church in northern Orange county (via husband) just a few minutes ago.

    Not Wavering (none / 0) (#35)
    by CoralGables on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:15:40 PM EST
    from this morning's prediction but will bump each candidate's margin of victory up a bit.

    Indiana - Clinton by 9.2%
    North Carolina - Obama by 4.4%

    I say (none / 0) (#37)
    by g8grl on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:04:01 PM EST
    Hillary +8 in IN, +2 in NC.

    Everyone exits saying they voted for the messiah to avoid thuggery

    As I said in the morning thread: (none / 0) (#38)
    by g8grl on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:11:34 PM EST
    Explanation:  People have been telling the pollsters that their vote won't be affected by Wright but they think other peoples will not vote for Obama because of Wright.  This is the same as people asking their doctor for a "friend" that has a rash.  Maybe people would like to think they are enlightened enough not to be offended by Wright, but when picking a President, they will not choose someone who has ? marks where his values should be.  I think it's likely that Obama won't get 90% of the 35% of the AA vote, or that the AA vote won't come out for someone who has made them look bad by exposing some of their extremists.  

    Parent
    To make this a horse race ... (none / 0) (#39)
    by Tortmaster on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:42:13 PM EST
    ... Hillary Clinton needs to win by 100% of the vote in North Carolina and by 50% of the vote in Indiana. My real predictions:

    NC:

    Obama 54%
    Clinton 46%

    IN:

    Obama 47%
    Clinton 42%
    Operation Chaos 11%  

    Afternoon Predictions: Thread Two | 38 comments (38 topical)

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