home

What Edwards Did In Iowa

I have avoided like the plague the discussion of John Edwards' private life. But I am interested in the argument about the effect of John Edwards' campaign in Iowa. Howard Wolfson argued that if Edwards had not been in the race, Hillary would have won Iowa. Chris Bowers and Clinton hater Poblano say it would not have made a difference. I have no idea what would have happened the night of January 3, 2008 if Edwards had not been in the race, but to ignore the fact that John Edwards served as Obama's attack dog in Iowa, as Bowers and the Clinton hating Poblano do, when discussing his effect on the race, is absurd.

I always argued that the most important night of the campaign came on October 30, 2007, when Jack Welch's NBC boys Tim Russert and Brian Williams teed it up against Hillary Clinton. To wonder what would have happened in the campaign if Edwards had been out is like wondering what would have happened if Russert had not been at the October 30, 2007 debate. They both were there. Silly to pretend that we would have known what would have happened otherwise. But we are nothing if not silly sometimes.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

< The Public Figure | More On The Russia-Georgia Conflict >
  • The Online Magazine with Liberal coverage of crime-related political and injustice news

  • Contribute To TalkLeft


  • Display: Sort:
    Iowa just wasn't a good state for Hillary (5.00 / 3) (#1)
    by andgarden on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 01:46:54 PM EST
    I have absolutely no idea what would have happened there without Edwards in the race. Perhaps Biden or Dodd would have been the white male alternative. Or maybe Obama would have won anyway.

    that's the part I don't get about all the Iowa (5.00 / 1) (#2)
    by TimNCGuy on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 01:50:24 PM EST
    talk,  Hillary was never expected to win in Iowa.  There was talk of her not even running in Iowa.  But, once Obama did win there, the media acted like it was some kind of HUGE upset over Clinton.  No one ever predicted she was going to winin Iowa anyway.  If anything, Edwards should have won it.  He campaigned there for four years.

    Parent
    What Wolfson can't say (5.00 / 3) (#6)
    by andgarden on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 01:54:57 PM EST
    but which is clearly true is that it would have been better for HIllary if Edwards had won Iowa.

    People are saying that his political career ended with the mistress revelation, but actually I think it ended in Iowa in January. The guy hasn't won a significant election since 1998.  

    Parent

    I agree with you on that (none / 0) (#12)
    by TimNCGuy on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 01:58:20 PM EST
    It would have stopped Obama from gaining momentum.  It was caucuses.  Clinton could have instructed her supporters to shift to Edwards if they realized she wasn't going to win.  Pull the same stunt on Obama that McCain did to Romney by having his supporters go to Huckabee in one of the early caucus states.

    Parent
    More or less. (5.00 / 1) (#15)
    by andgarden on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:00:23 PM EST
    The best order for Hillary in Iowa other than winning herself would have been Edwards-->Clinton-->Obama.

    Parent
    But at that point her campaign was (5.00 / 2) (#44)
    by inclusiveheart on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:11:57 PM EST
    not nearly as responsive as they ultimately became later in the nomination contest.  I just don't think they understood the full scope of the momentum that the Obama camp had and would never have seen the need to engage in a maneuver like that one.  

    Parent
    that's true (5.00 / 2) (#54)
    by TimNCGuy on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:15:48 PM EST
    I'm sure Clinton never expected Obama to take 90% of the black vote.  If she could have even maintained 40% of the black vote, it would have been over after Super Tuesday.  I'm sure that is why she wasn't worried about caucuses either.

    They were essentailly tied after Super Tueday.  But, think of all the states she won that night that should would have won bigger and had earned more delegates if she had taken 40% of the black vote.

    Even if it hadn't ended that night, Obama would not have won 11 contests in a row without 90% of the black vote.

    Parent

    We are forgetting the Michigan (5.00 / 1) (#52)
    by hairspray on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:15:42 PM EST
    stunt in all of this. Both obama and Edwards were gleeful about their stopping her momentum in Michigan which I understand slowed her Iowa march.  Had it only been Obama I think Hillary would have come in a very close second in Iowa and made obama look weak.

    Parent
    Hillary coming in a close (5.00 / 2) (#84)
    by gyrfalcon on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:29:54 PM EST
    second in Iowa would in no way have made Obama look weak.  Nobody knew at that point whether when it came right down to it, white folks were going to be willing to vote for him, caucus or primary.  WHen it became clear after Iowa that he was a real candidate is when the floodgates let loose.  It would have happened even if he came in a close second.  The only way it wouldn't have is if she'd creamed him, which wasn't going to happen with or without Edwards.


    Parent
    Exactly. Edwards gave Obama cover (5.00 / 5) (#97)
    by Cream City on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:42:11 PM EST
    in Michigan, where Obama would not have gone alone in getting his name off the ballot.

    And Edwards gave Obama cover in some Iowa caucuses, from what I've read (local accounts there) -- and some here seem to forget that Iowa had caucuses.  And considerable confusion about the shifts after the first ballot.  And . . . well, anyone can find the accounts online and figure out that the more candidates in real competition, the more confusion.

    And to look only at the start of the campaign also ignores that Edwards gave Obama considerable momentum when he endorsed -- not only tossing a couple dozen more delegates to Obama, at a time when it had been so close, but also undercutting Clinton on health care.  That was crucial.

    It's all what-ifs, sure.  But that's most of political analysis.

    Parent

    Since Edwards has gone into full disclosure (5.00 / 3) (#155)
    by JavaCityPal on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 04:00:58 PM EST
    mode, maybe he will share with the country anything that was happening behind the scenes to pair up strategies in order to push Hillary out at the request/command of the DNC.

    Parent
    Edwards really began campaigning there before ... (5.00 / 2) (#177)
    by Robot Porter on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 04:28:15 PM EST
    the '04 election.  So it was more like 9+ years.

    Or as I put it at the time:  "He's been campaigning there since some time in the Jurassic."

    Parent

    Nobody knows (5.00 / 3) (#3)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 01:51:13 PM EST
    except Bowers and Poblano.

    I suggest people read those two with huge grains of salt about EVERYTHING. Well, do that with everyone actually, but those two guys, well, just carry your salt shaker with you.

    Parent

    Now now now (5.00 / 0) (#10)
    by Militarytracy on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 01:57:02 PM EST
    If only you were a scientologist BTD and knew how to know.  I myself have a Ouija and I haven't asked it yet.

    Parent
    Stupid question (5.00 / 1) (#21)
    by ruffian on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:02:58 PM EST
    who is Poblano?

    Parent
    Mr. 538 (5.00 / 1) (#25)
    by andgarden on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:04:50 PM EST
    AKA Nate Silver. Baseball stats guy who suddenly has all of the answers about politics.

    Parent
    Ha! thanks! (5.00 / 3) (#31)
    by ruffian on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:07:13 PM EST
    In that case I'll just ask my little nephew for his opinion instead.

    Parent
    ruffian (none / 0) (#187)
    by cal1942 on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 04:48:45 PM EST
    best comment yet.

    Parent
    Nate is a good numbers geek (5.00 / 2) (#118)
    by RonK Seattle on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 03:14:21 PM EST
    ... who sometimes models his way to best-of-field predictions. (His political/analytical naivete probably serve him well in keeping him close to the numbers, leaving less room for self-decpetion.)

    Bowers is an English major who thinks he's a numbers geek, and ... hilarity ensues.

    Parent

    STAY STUPID :) (none / 0) (#37)
    by Militarytracy on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:09:09 PM EST
    It's going to take you all day to get smart on this Poblano thing because he's sort of all day guy and he likes an all day sucker :)

    Parent
    LOL (none / 0) (#65)
    by ruffian on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:20:20 PM EST
    I have all the information I need.  All curiosity satisfied.  I have all I can do deciphering Bowers, usually an all day task right there.  He was pretty coherent on this one though, even if wrong.

    Parent
    Wolfson says he knows (2.33 / 3) (#14)
    by PaulDem on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 01:59:39 PM EST
    And that Clinton would have won Iowa but for Edwards.

    But it guess it's ok if you're a Clinton insider to spout bs like this to give everybody's Clinton-was-robbed emotions one more stir before the convention.

    Parent

    the assumption isn't that outlandish (5.00 / 3) (#27)
    by Edgar08 on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:05:41 PM EST
    The idea that working class Edwards supporters would go to Clinton and that creative class edwards supporters would go to Obama doesn't seem crazy talk to me.

    Parent
    Except that (5.00 / 3) (#70)
    by gyrfalcon on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:23:05 PM EST
    hasn't there been polling in various places that showed most Edwards voters went to Obama when he dropped out?

    Seems to me by Iowa, Obama hadn't shown any of his ugly side, and Hillary hadn't become the Hillary we all went nuts over (ok, most of us here, not all) until after NH.

    And as a caucus state, Obama went all out, and Hillary almost didn't contest it at all.

    My guess is that if Edwards hadn't been in it, Obama would still have won, or come a close enough second that everything else would have proceeded from that in exactly the same way, including the massive switch of the AA vote that was with Hillary over to Obama.  The only dff I can see is that Hillary's NH win wouldn't have been such a shock.

    IOW, my guess is Edwards made no difference at all in the eventual outcome, or even the near-term unfolding of events.

    The only thing that would have changed what happened is if Hillary had swamped Obama in Iowa, and that wasn't going to happen, Edwards or no Edwards.

    Parent

    Not sure how that fits in (5.00 / 1) (#157)
    by JavaCityPal on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 04:03:49 PM EST
    I started out Obama (2006), went to Edwards (2007) then quickly switched to Hillary after Iowa. I know others who took the same path.

    Can't really put all Edwards supporters into one bucket like that.


    Parent

    Probably, yeah (none / 0) (#75)
    by andgarden on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:26:25 PM EST
    It's hard to remember the pre-New Hampshire Hillary campaign, but it wasn't the same. If she had been able to run her PA campaign in Iowa, we'd probably have a different nominee. But that's not how it happened.

    Parent
    PA was a primary right (5.00 / 1) (#78)
    by Edgar08 on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:28:30 PM EST
    this discussion really is pointless.

    Parent
    Sure, but the levels of demographic support (none / 0) (#83)
    by andgarden on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:29:52 PM EST
    are worth comparing.

    Parent
    In close elections (5.00 / 1) (#103)
    by Edgar08 on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:48:54 PM EST
    so are systemic limitations.

    You know I don't want to sit around all day saying "what if" but then all these things get said to refute the very possibility.

    And a lot of those things are just wrong, in my opinion.

    People should try to figure out how to argue their point of view without resorting to tautologies.

    Penn's an idiot.  How do we know that.  Well he is cause he is and everyone knows that.

    Clinton was different after new Hampshire?  How??

    She was cause she was and everyone knows it.  Yet no one's actually said something specific as an example.  

    They blew organization efforts in caucusses.  Yes. They underestimated that piece of the puzzle.  But as far as how Clinton represented herself, I don't know.  I think she did fine throughout.

    Let's make something up and see if people buy it.

    Parent

    She was different because (none / 0) (#186)
    by smott on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 04:48:19 PM EST
    She fired Solis Doyle and brought in Maggie Williams. Huge change in the campaign from then on. Huge.

    Parent
    But it's all parlor game speculation (1.00 / 1) (#38)
    by PaulDem on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:10:44 PM EST
    It's just parlor game speculation on both sides as to what might have happened. CNN's polling suggests that Obama had took a bigger slice of Edwards second-choice voters.  It's all alchemy.

    The point is that it appears suspiciously timed to rip the scabs off the healing wounds and get the PUMAs riled up with a couple weeks to go before the convention.  It doesn't seem like a helpful discussion to have at this juncture.

    Parent

    obama's gonna win anyway (5.00 / 1) (#53)
    by Edgar08 on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:15:46 PM EST
    the disunity is not wolfsons fault.

    Parent
    "not helpful" (5.00 / 7) (#61)
    by Capt Howdy on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:19:01 PM EST
    I dont really think its "helpful" to have people who think they have the insight to say what conversations are "helpful" and which are not.
    Obama supporters do that a lot.
    and
    its not helpful

    Parent
    Then explain how it is helpful (5.00 / 0) (#77)
    by PaulDem on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:26:58 PM EST
    That's a fair dispute.  So tell me how it is helpful to speculate about another way Clinton would be the nominee right now had history changed in another way.  

    It seems to me that that this will just dragging all the same resentments back to the surface.

    So hooray for Wolfson!  Let's have this debate one more time!  It should really help defeat McCain by getting Democrats to scream at each other for another week or so.

    So please, tell me. Here is your invitation.  I am curious to hear why you think it is helpful to have this conversation right now.

    Parent

    because it irritates you (5.00 / 6) (#85)
    by Capt Howdy on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:31:16 PM EST
    But the idea that Edwards had no effect on the (5.00 / 4) (#86)
    by Valhalla on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:31:32 PM EST
    race whatsoever in Iowa (or pulling his name from the MI ballot with Obama) is bizarre and silly.

    Just because you prefer not to discuss the consequences of Edwards actions doesn't mean they shouldn't be discussed.  There are arguments going both ways.  But please, just ignore the elephant in the room.

    Parent

    That s the very demographic split (none / 0) (#72)
    by gyrfalcon on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:24:26 PM EST
    that killed Hillary in the caucuses.


    Parent
    Wolfson also said (5.00 / 1) (#123)
    by waldenpond on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 03:16:35 PM EST
    in that same interview, that Obama could have gotten New Hampshire if Clinton hadn't teared up.  I'm sure some people (with Obama colored glasses) don't think that one is bullsh!t.

    Parent
    I'd like to see their pre-Iowa polling on this (none / 0) (#17)
    by andgarden on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:01:35 PM EST
    Of course, since it was all conducted by Mark Penn, it would be suspect. And IIRC, he doesn't let anyone see his crosstabs.

    Parent
    Is it ok? (none / 0) (#33)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:07:39 PM EST
    To me it is monumentally stupid.

    But I was not expecting objective analysis from Wolfson. Nor should we expect it from Bowers and Poblano either. OR perhaps you like their thoughts?

    If I understand you correctly, you are upset that I did not blast Wolfson in this post. Let me make up for it here - I join inclusive heart's thoughts on Wolfson.

    Feel better now?

    Parent

    Exactly (none / 0) (#11)
    by andgarden on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 01:57:52 PM EST
    I think Silver is getting a little big for his britches with all of this media attention. I don't trust him as an analyst. And he seems to be doing more and more "analysis" as he gets more attention. He's trying to be John Zogby.

    Bowers is hot and cold.

    Parent

    He is the new Zogby imo (5.00 / 3) (#43)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:11:41 PM EST
    The Zogby (none / 0) (#80)
    by standingup on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:29:01 PM EST
    of the Netroots.  

    Parent
    I agree it was not the Iowa result per se (5.00 / 3) (#5)
    by ruffian on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 01:52:36 PM EST
    that was affected, but the general popularity of Clinton going forward.

    Parent
    Well (5.00 / 3) (#4)
    by Steve M on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 01:51:59 PM EST
    My opinion is that Obama would have won anyway, but there's not a clearcut answer.  Not to get in the way of a good whine by Howard Wolfson or anything, but I frankly find it a pretty uninteresting counterfactual to speculate about.  I mean, maybe if a butterfly flaps its wings differently, Hitler doesn't get born.

    There's an awful lot of things that could have happened differently that would have made Hillary the winner over Obama.  Some of those things were within the control of the two campaigns, some were not.  But the same is true of most things that happen in the world - events just aren't as inevitable as they seem in hindsight.  Think of all the tiny details that could have made a difference in the outcome of the 2000 election, and how different the world would be as a result.

    Except for one thing (4.55 / 9) (#7)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 01:55:51 PM EST
    Edwards was Obama's attack dog on Hillary in Iowa.

    That is the one thing that makes it interesting.

    But the most important night was October 30, 2007.

    Parent

    not JUST in Iowa (5.00 / 6) (#13)
    by Capt Howdy on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 01:59:38 PM EST
    check out the loooooong list of Edwards attacks on Hillary at NoQuarter.  
    then there is the endorsment.

    Parent
    Maybe, but back then... (5.00 / 1) (#16)
    by LatinoDC on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:01:07 PM EST
    Edwards was still running for president, and even though it was not likely, he still had a chance of becoming the nominee.  Do you think there was actually some cooperation between the campaigns (which is what I understand when you say "Obama's dog")? or was it just that Edwards was running his own campaign with his own strategy?

    Parent
    Edwards and Hillary (5.00 / 2) (#20)
    by Capt Howdy on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:02:04 PM EST
    were splitting the anti Obama vote.

    Parent
    anti-obama vote? (5.00 / 2) (#28)
    by LatinoDC on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:06:07 PM EST
    I would say HRC had her own votes with no need for an anti-obama feeling...

    Parent
    I guess that is why she won (5.00 / 1) (#32)
    by Capt Howdy on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:07:37 PM EST
    Hillary had a base long before (5.00 / 2) (#132)
    by LatinoVoter on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 03:35:56 PM EST
    anyone knew or hated Obama. Latinos and older women for example. Her supporters didn't hate Obama because nobody knew who the hell the was.

    Parent
    Beg to differ (5.00 / 3) (#87)
    by gyrfalcon on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:31:52 PM EST
    Obama wasn't well known enough to have much of an "anti" vote.  Edwards and Obama were splitting the anti-Hillary vote, IMHO.

    Parent
    You're right (none / 0) (#160)
    by JavaCityPal on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 04:07:22 PM EST
    he should have been an easy early elimination for how little he brings to the ticket.


    Parent
    A bad job of runing for President (5.00 / 7) (#24)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:04:31 PM EST
    Edwards never had a chance because he chose to be OBAMA's attack dog in Iowa.

    He was never a serious contender after that.

    He had no chance in Iowa because his attacks brought him and  Hillary down and raised Obama. And once Obama won Iowa, it was over for Edwards.

    It is funny that no one bothers to postmortem the Edwards campaign, especially now, because that was truly the worst run campaign of all.

    Parent

    Indeed (5.00 / 3) (#35)
    by andgarden on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:08:21 PM EST
    Edwards hasn't run a good race since 1998.

    Parent
    How do you keep all this stuff (none / 0) (#41)
    by Militarytracy on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:11:19 PM EST
    cataloged in your noodle.  I read this and compared 1998 to 2004 and 2007.....how does your mind file stuff with this much cross refrence?

    Parent
    Oh, it's not that hard (5.00 / 1) (#51)
    by andgarden on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:15:42 PM EST
    And anyway, different people focus on different things. Ask me who won the world series last year, and I'll have to look it up.

    Parent
    It's a fair point that JE (5.00 / 1) (#74)
    by brodie on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:26:01 PM EST
    may have gotten some backlash against him, but my sense of it is that, once O established in the first half of 07 that he was going to be a major player -- big-time fundraising plus no gaffes/airtight campaign -- that this one was always going to come down to the 2 historic candidates, with the Usual White Southern Guy Suspect, someone who'd barely held office anyway, being the odd man out.

    So imo it really wouldn't have mattered how well JE did in IA, even had he won it would have been largely relegated by later primary/caucus voters to one of those quirky IA things.

    As to Wolfson's theory, it's not unworthy of speculating about.

    And I agree the October Hillary Bash Fest was the major political event prior to the crucial IA contest.  And with her last unfortunate waffling answer, which reinforced the night's antagonistic theme of her being a fence-straddler who refused to take a position, it allowed enough decent-minded IA voters (and women) not to give her the sympathy backlash vote and instead buy into the meme that she was just another scheming pol -- unlike that new guy on the block Barack.

    Parent

    Someone who'd barely held office? (5.00 / 2) (#89)
    by Teresa on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:33:08 PM EST
    Edwards...six years and VP candidate. Obama 2 years national experience when he started running. I agree he stood no chance against the two historical candidates but I wouldn't bring experience into it.

    Parent
    Yeah, six yrs, four of which (5.00 / 0) (#93)
    by brodie on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:38:09 PM EST
    he spent campaigning for president.  And absolutely no other political office before that.  

    At least O had those years in the state lege to go with his one (partial) senate term.

    But I think I might have been suggesting also that JE, with his political shape-shifting from the 04 to the 08 cycle, seemed to be a pol that people were having difficulty getting to know well.

    By comparison, Obama seemed much more straight-forward and politically understandable -- not much chameleon activity there.

    Parent

    The worst? (5.00 / 0) (#99)
    by Nevart on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:44:53 PM EST
    Well, considering that uber-experienced Biden and Dodd got nowhere, theirs might be considered the "worst-run" campaigns of all.  At least Edwards bagged some delegates.

    Parent
    I get that he chose to attack HRC.. (none / 0) (#36)
    by LatinoDC on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:08:58 PM EST
    but again, do you think he did it because he thought that was the right strategy to win, or was he really trying to help Obama?I'm jut curious about the term "Obama's dog"...

    Parent
    He thought it was the best strategy.... (5.00 / 0) (#114)
    by p lukasiak on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 03:01:35 PM EST
    but in truth, Edwards had no real strategy once Obama entered the race.  His strategy was based on demonstrating that Clinton was not inevitable by winning in Iowa, Nevada (where he expected to get the SIEU endorsement), and South Carolina (where Clintonophobia was strong), but it was a 'two-person race' strategy.  The Edwards campaign never adjusted to Obama's entry into the race, and grossly under-estimated Obama's potential.  

    what is interesting if you look at the trends is that everyone's numbers were going up through the first five months of 2007, when Edwards loss of support looks like it went to Clinton, while Obama's increase in support seems to come at Richardson's expense beginning in August.  

    This may well explain Wolfson's rationale for saying that if Edwards had been out, that Clinton would have won.

    What is most interesting about these polls is how wrong they were in terms of Obama's support -- and it suggests that Obama's 'gaming' of the caucuses was a key part of his strategy even then.  The data suggests that the "likely voter" models were dead wrong.

    Parent

    Someone needs to write a book (5.00 / 4) (#18)
    by ruffian on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:01:40 PM EST
    about that debate. (Bob Somerby, I'm talking to you!)  I think it was the most important one ever, and it does not get the attention it deserves, probably because the press did not exactly cloak themselves in glory.

    Parent
    The biggest problem with the debate... (5.00 / 0) (#116)
    by p lukasiak on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 03:08:51 PM EST
    Was Tim Russerts deliberate mistatement of Clinton's position on drivers licenses.  

    Basically, after hounding Clinton for an hour, they went into the 'lightning round' where candidates only got 30 seconds to answer a question.  Russert brought up what Clinton had said about the drivers license thing to an editorial board, then deliberately lied about what she'd said.

    If you listen to Clinton's answer, its obvious that she is responding to a question that was based on what she'd actually told the editorial board (that she supported the 'intent' behind the Spitzer proposal, which was to get people out of the shadows) without ever endorsing the proposal itself.   She made the mistake of not listening closely to the question -- and you can even see her consternation when other candidates claimed that she she was flip-flopping.  

    Parent

    It's reasonable to expect a candidate ... (5.00 / 4) (#126)
    by RonK Seattle on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 03:19:57 PM EST
    ... to master sound-bite defenses of her positions.

    It's less reasonable to take a candidate to task for failing to improvise sound-bite responses to moderator insistence that she does, too, hold positions she does not hold.

    In this case it was - what - three moderators and seven rivals against the frontrunner?

    Parent

    Kinda sorta (5.00 / 1) (#34)
    by Steve M on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:08:20 PM EST
    Lots of variables.  We don't know, without Edwards, if someone else like Biden would have become a viable 3rd option.  We don't know if any of the other candidates would have stepped into the attack-dog role.  (Dodd, for one, was always very nasty towards Hillary.)  And we don't know if Obama would have done the attacking himself if no one else stepped up, or if he would have been content to stand by passively.

    I think you can make reasonable arguments for either outcome, when it all comes down to it.  But it's all completely academic.  Over the years, so many nominations have been determined not by manifest destiny but simply by fortuitous events outside of anyone's control.  It's just the way of the world.

    Parent

    Sure (5.00 / 4) (#49)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:13:56 PM EST
    But I do know one thing - Edwards went viciously negative on Hillary and no one else did.

    Parent
    Yes (5.00 / 4) (#76)
    by Steve M on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:26:52 PM EST
    I recall being upset by that because I was an Edwards supporter who had a favorable opinion of Hillary.  I wanted the primary to be about the issues, not about destroying Hillary Clinton's character.

    I mean, the guy created a "Plants for Hillary" website in Iowa, complete with little cartoon figures of potted plants talking about how Hillary just loves to plant questions in the audience.  And then in South Carolina he decides to call himself "the grownup wing of the Democratic Party."  An awful lot of my time as an Edwards supporter was spent rolling my eyes.

    Parent

    JE did embarrass himself that night, (5.00 / 1) (#98)
    by brodie on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:43:19 PM EST
    imo.  

    But in 2000, Hillary faced similar hostility from one Rick Lazio and NBC's Tim Russert who pulled out that bizarre and unfair question about Hillary "misleading" the public about Bill's affair.  She stayed steady, answered with solid responses, and got the sympathy backlash and Lazio was clocked in the election.

    Whereas, under not too dissimilar hostile circumstances this cycle, HRC unfortunately got that very late Q in the Oct 07 debate about the undocumenteds in NY -- and badly fumbled her response, somewhat nullifying what had been up to then the night's big news about the big-time Gang Bang and leaving the opening for voters in IA to draw their own conclusions about whether she was indeed, as charged, just another waffling pol.  

    Parent

    I think Hillary would have won if (5.00 / 0) (#8)
    by inclusiveheart on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 01:56:10 PM EST
    her inner circle had taken their jobs a little more seriously at the front end of the campaign rather than resting on their laurels until it became apparent that the only people who bought into thei "inevitability" line were they themselves.

    Wolfson's licking his wounds and not doing his candidate any favors either.

    it wasn't just the Clinton camp (5.00 / 4) (#22)
    by TimNCGuy on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:03:00 PM EST
    that bought into "inevitability".  The media bought into it as well.  Hillary won every debate until the one in Philly.  Every night on MSNBC (back when I used to watch it) they'd call it inevitable.  They were the ones that kept calling for Obama and Edwards to attack Clinton.  They were bored and wanted a more interesting campaign to cover.  And gee, it just happened that their network went out and did the attack job on her at that debate for Obama and Edwards.  Hmmmm..   funny how that works, huh?

    Parent
    What bothered me - like a lot of (5.00 / 1) (#71)
    by inclusiveheart on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:24:20 PM EST
    other people - was that the people speaking on behalf of the campaign actually said it themselves publicly which might have seemed like the smart thing to do in their minds, but it created in me and others a sense of resentment because they came off looking like they really thought they were entitled to the nomination.  That bothered me a lot at the time and it provoked my inner rebel to reject her/them completely for a long, long time.

    It was not until they ate some humble pie and started working for votes that I started to like her - never liked her entourage - but I did really warm to her in a way that I never thought I would early on.  It also happens that she started offering what Edwards had given all along which was detailed policy which had a lot to do with my opening up to her as a candidate and a lot to do with my never really being engaged by the Obama camp which chose to withhold detail whenever possible.

    Parent

    I have said many times (5.00 / 1) (#23)
    by Capt Howdy on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:03:50 PM EST
    it was the fault of Hillarys organization.  
    but to think her NOT splitting the anti Obama vote would have had no effect makes no sense.

    Parent
    I was an Edwards supporter at that (5.00 / 1) (#81)
    by inclusiveheart on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:29:19 PM EST
    point and she would never have gotten my vote with how she was running her campaign in January.  She would have gotten it in April after she started asking for votes and providing more thoughts on policy though.  Had I been an Iowa resident, I am not sure I would have even gone to caucus if Edwards had not been in the race.  I never had a warm and fuzzy feeling about Obama and at the time I really resented her campaign's inevitability gig.  I am just one out of many people and by no means an indicator of what would have happened, but since this discussion is about what Edwards supporters would have done I think I have a small right to say what this Edwards supporter would have done.

    Parent
    I put the turn much earlier, in March (none / 0) (#100)
    by Valhalla on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:45:16 PM EST
    I never got the sense that Hillary was pushing the inevitability meme, or even her staff, but that her staff was trying to leverage the media's pushing of it.  That was was jettisoned after Super Tues and the small red state caucuses wins streak for Obama.  But that was prior to Ohio.

    Parent
    Again, the turn I recounted was my (none / 0) (#117)
    by inclusiveheart on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 03:09:25 PM EST
    personal turn.  It took a while for me to believe that she was serious about asking for votes based on policy rather than expecting that they would come to her no strings attached.

    And for the record, I saw Terry McAuliffe among others push that inevitability meme plenty - if she had kept him off my TV screen - she would have had my attention much earlier.

    Parent

    there were mistakes (5.00 / 1) (#45)
    by Edgar08 on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:12:50 PM EST
    I would hesitate to talk about the inevitability thing, because that was a media driven thing as much as anything else.

    Parent
    not true (5.00 / 1) (#50)
    by Capt Howdy on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:14:04 PM EST
    it was rampant in the campaign.  all the way up to Hillary.

    Parent
    if you think Clinton took winning for granted (5.00 / 2) (#59)
    by Edgar08 on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:17:52 PM EST
    then I guess I disagree.

    Parent
    I think she was inside a tightly (5.00 / 1) (#88)
    by inclusiveheart on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:32:35 PM EST
    controlled bubble managed by her handlers up until the Iowa loss when their inevitability gig was sorely tested.

    Parent
    but she was travelling throughout iowa (5.00 / 2) (#107)
    by Edgar08 on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:55:03 PM EST
    and doing what candidates do.

    I didn't see her in a bubble.

    Parent

    I've Asked This Before (5.00 / 4) (#142)
    by BDB on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 03:44:05 PM EST
    But show me one quote or any other evidence that Clinton thought she was inevitable.  At the time I believed it because the media said so, but in retrospect I can find no evidence for this trope other than what the pundits say and we know what that's worth.

    And Clinton worked her butt off in Iowa.  It was never going to be her state - caucus, borders Illinois, lots of college kids.  

    She should've skipped Iowa, IMO.  Like Obama pulled his name off the ballot in Michigan.  Then she could've argued not to count it.  An argument I would've laughed at previously, but seeing as how it worked in Michigan, perhaps Clinton could've picked a poll of her choice and reallocated the delegates (yes, I'm still a little bitter about votes for Clinton being counted as if they were for Obama).

    Parent

    indeed.. (none / 0) (#19)
    by LatinoDC on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:01:53 PM EST
    Can't wait to read the post-election (5.00 / 1) (#9)
    by oculus on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 01:56:39 PM EST
    analyses re Iowa.  5% minority, borders IL., Obama supported ethanol.  Who knows.

    to put it in personaly terms (5.00 / 5) (#26)
    by Capt Howdy on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:05:04 PM EST
    I would have voted for Hillary if Edwards had not been in the race.

    i would have voted for Hillary (5.00 / 1) (#113)
    by Little Fish on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 03:00:56 PM EST
    In a primary but I'm not sure I would have taken time to go to the caucus for her. That said she won me over hardcore after February. By April/May I was travelling to campaign for her. I NEVER expected to do that, but she became a different candidate in the post Feb races.

    So if she had won nomination in Februaru, there's no guarantee that I'd be more than a tepid supporter right now.

    Parent

    not me (none / 0) (#102)
    by Nevart on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:47:59 PM EST
    I would have voted for Dodd if Obama hadn't been in the race.  Or Biden.  Or Edwards.  Probably not Kucinich (I'm not stupid).

    Parent
    I'd think that Edwards at least... (5.00 / 2) (#29)
    by EL seattle on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:06:20 PM EST
    ..might owe some worthwhile media attention/minutes/time (as well as apologies) to the serious and sincere candidates who spent money on their effort in the early campaign.


    how about to people (5.00 / 5) (#30)
    by Capt Howdy on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:07:02 PM EST
    like me who wasted our votes on the stupid wanker

    Parent
    why do you think you wasted your vote? (none / 0) (#40)
    by LatinoDC on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:11:03 PM EST
    well lets see (5.00 / 3) (#46)
    by Capt Howdy on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:13:10 PM EST
    I guess because he lost, first of all and then because even if he had won he would have doomed the party.


    Parent
    I voted for his platform and I had (5.00 / 3) (#95)
    by inclusiveheart on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:38:58 PM EST
    no expectation that he would win.  I was pretty sure that he had zero chance of winning the minute Obama entered the race.  But I still voted for him because his platform meant something to me.  

    Honestly, I'd vote for Daffy Duck if he was running on the healthcare plan, economic fairness and the rural recovery plan that Edwards put forth.  I'd do it as I did in hopes that someone would pay attention to the fact that those issues are meaningful to me and others.

    Parent

    well, I think he had a chance.. (none / 0) (#63)
    by LatinoDC on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:19:49 PM EST
    secondly, right now we would be in a debate about personal life/public life....

    oh, just one more thing...if the fact that he lost makes it a "wasted" vote, would you say then that voting for Nader is wasting your vote?

    Parent

    when Nader gets caught (5.00 / 2) (#82)
    by Capt Howdy on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:29:23 PM EST
    in a hotel with his mistress I will let you know.

    Parent
    Whenever you vote for a candidate (none / 0) (#91)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:36:02 PM EST
    you risk "wasting your vote on a wanker".

    It is what it is, they do what they do.

    Parent

    now i can get a good case or irritation (5.00 / 2) (#39)
    by hellothere on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:10:56 PM EST
    going with edwards about the way this campaign turned out and his bad political judgment. i leave his private life alone also. i am deeply disappointed like many.

    I'll be writing a factual article on this (5.00 / 7) (#42)
    by Jeralyn on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:11:29 PM EST
    tonight for Pajamas Media, looking at the numbers and not giving an opinion. It should appear on their site late tomorrow or Weds.

    As for my opinion, I think it did matter. There were two votes at the caucuses. First was for all the candidates. Then the candidates with less than 15% got to choose between the big 3. Here's my first-hand report of how the voting went down at the Iowa caucus I attended. For example, the Richardson block went to Edwards en masse after he didn't make the cutoff. (The Biden group went to Obama.)

    So in addition to Edwards supporters who might have gone elsewhere, there were Dodd, Biden, Richardson, Kucinich, etc. supporters who might have gone to Hillary over Obama if Edwards wasn't in the race.

    As for what if, it's a big deal. It was the first primary and Hillary's coming in slightly behind Edwards was the talk of the nation. It was the beginning of the media focus on how she might not be "inevitable" even though she never said she was inevitable. It was perceived as a big loss.

    The "what if" that won't be known is how she would have fared in a 2 way race with Obama in Iowa. If Obama won big, the result would be the same. If they tied or she won, the whole race could have been different.

    Of course it doesn't matter to an Obama supporter, but to someone who supported Hillary or one who now believes they wasted their vote on Edwards, it 's a big deal.

    why was voting for Edwards wasting your vote? (5.00 / 1) (#56)
    by LatinoDC on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:16:09 PM EST
    because it prevented... (5.00 / 1) (#127)
    by p lukasiak on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 03:22:00 PM EST
    ...it was wasted because Edwards could not have been the nominee after having lied about the affair.  (if Edwards had fessed up in October, and carried on and won, it would be different).  

    more to the point, by lying and staying in the race, Edwards effectively prevented any other "third" candidate from gaining any traction.  What little media attention that wasn't concentrated on Hillbama wound up going to Edwards -- had Edwards not been in the race, more focus would have been put on the other potential "third" candidates.

    Parent

    I recall the polling (5.00 / 1) (#58)
    by Steve M on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:17:28 PM EST
    Hillary was always in a very clear third place whenever pollsters asked about second choices.  This didn't necessarily hold true in later states, but in Iowa it was pretty clear the dynamic was you were either for Hillary or you were against her.

    Parent
    Remember when the Obama boosters (none / 0) (#62)
    by andgarden on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:19:48 PM EST
    were yelling that Edwards had to get out?

    Parent
    I will be very interested in reading your (5.00 / 2) (#96)
    by Valhalla on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:41:38 PM EST
    piece.

    I wasn't paying all that much attention to Iowa, but I remember being astonished at the gigantic media "The Witch is Dead" celebration over her loss there.

    Truly astonished -- I was like 'It's Iowa for heaven's sake, it's one freakin' caucus?!?!'.

    I'm looking forward to the data.

    Parent

    As you said... (3.50 / 2) (#69)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:22:16 PM EST
    ..."These Iowans showed up on a cold winter night to register their beliefs and be counted. They did their part and their vote deserves our respect. Now it's our turn."  [Emphasis added]


    Parent
    Lots of voting theory involved here (none / 0) (#60)
    by andgarden on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:18:30 PM EST
    What's especially problematic is that Iowa wasn't an election, it was a caucus. It is not obvious that there was a Condorcet winner there.

    Parent
    That Debate (5.00 / 0) (#47)
    by Nevart on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:13:43 PM EST
    The important thing about that debate was not that the press "ganged up" on Hillary -- whom they had been treating as the inevitable candidate for months -- but that HRC answered a single question -- about driver's licenses for illegal aliens -- in three different ways in the space of one minute.  

    It revealed Hillary to a lot of folks as someone who would say anything -- or vote for anything, like a war in Iraq and throwing flag-burners in jail -- in order to get elected.  

    You obviously would disagree with that view, but it's what crystalized for many of us long before Iowa why we wanted an alternative to HRC.

    Edwards was, I would say, the "anti-Hillary alternative" for those not ready to vote for Obama.  So Wolfson's assertion is, to me, nonsense.  Dodd or Biden might have played that role if Edwards weren't in it.  Who knows?  

    The key point about Obama's victory in Iowa was how big it was, thus reassuring a lot of folks -- including many black folks -- that white people would vote for him.

    Anyway, it's ancient history now.  BO won, HRC and JE lost.  Someone had to win, someone had to lose.  That's life.  So, let's get on with trouncing McCain and taking our country back from the idiots now running it!

    Yeah, and Obama screwed the answer up (5.00 / 6) (#66)
    by Teresa on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:20:20 PM EST
    in the next debate...same question with plenty of time to prepare an answer.

    Parent
    Worse Than That (5.00 / 6) (#143)
    by BDB on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 03:45:42 PM EST
    He had spent the week hammering Clinton on her inability to say yes or no.  So the question comes, Hillary gives her one-word answer and Obama gave the same damned answer Hillary had given before.  Not that anyone cared.

    Parent
    But she didn't change her position (5.00 / 14) (#67)
    by Steve M on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:20:36 PM EST
    This is the power of narrative, basically, where things can reinforce the narrative even if they're not actually true in the first place.  Stories about Al Gore's exaggerations reinforce the narrative even when they're totally bogus stories.

    You can tell this is the case, because the same people who castigated Hillary for supposedly changing her position didn't have one word to say when both Edwards and Obama ended up being all over the map on the same issue.  These people didn't actually care whether Hillary changed her position on driver's licenses.  They were simply looking for confirmation of a narrative they were already convinced was true.

    Parent

    Not so (1.50 / 2) (#92)
    by Nevart on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:37:25 PM EST
    As I recall, Obama simply answered yes to the question of whether he approved of giving licenses to illegal aliens.  (I recall it because, though an Obama supporter, I happen to disagree with him on the issue.  I liked Dodd's answer better and would have supported him for Prez if I'd though he'd had any chance.)  Perhaps he screwed it up in the next debate, but I don't remember that.

    Parent
    Well, okay (5.00 / 9) (#108)
    by Steve M on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:55:37 PM EST
    Actual debate transcript:

    BLITZER: All right. I want to just press you on this point, because it's a logical follow-up, and then I want to go and ask everyone.

    On the issue that apparently tripped up Senator Clinton earlier, the issue of driver's licenses for illegal immigrants, I take it, Senator Obama, you support giving driver's licenses to illegal immigrants.

    Is that right?

    OBAMA: When I was a state senator in Illinois, I voted to require that illegal aliens get trained, get a license, get insurance to protect public safety. That was my intention.

    (APPLAUSE)

    And -- but I have to make sure that people understand. The problem we have here is not driver's licenses. Undocumented workers do not come here to drive.

    (LAUGHTER)

    They don't go -- they're not coming here to go to the In-N-Out Burger. That's not the reason they're here. They're here to work. And so instead of being distracting by what has now become a wedge issue, let's focus on actually solving the problem that this administration, the Bush administration, had done nothing about it.

    BLITZER: Well, let's go through everybody because I want to be precise. I want to make sure the viewers and those of us who are here fully understand all of your positions on this barring -- avoiding, assuming -- there isn't going to be comprehensive immigration reform.

    Do you support or oppose driver's licenses for illegal immigrants?

    OBAMA: I am not proposing that that's what we do.

    What I'm saying is that we can't...

    (LAUGHTER)

    No, no, no, no. Look, I have already said, I support the notion that we have to deal with public safety and that driver's licenses at the same level can make that happen.

    But what I also know...

    BLITZER: All right...

    OBAMA: But what I also know, Wolf, is that if we keep on getting distracted by this problem, then we are not solving it.

    BLITZER: But -- because this is the kind of question that is sort of available for a yes or no answer.

    (LAUGHTER)

    Either you support it or you oppose it.



    Parent
    It's amazing how disingenuous Obama and Edwards (5.00 / 3) (#122)
    by rjarnold on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 03:16:11 PM EST
    were at that debate. Here are a couple of ridiculous quotes (the Edwards one is a bald-faced lie) in just the first 20% of the debate.

    OBAMA: ... the fact of the matter is that I do provide universal health care.

    The only difference between Senator Clinton's health care plan and mine is that she thinks the problem for people without health care is that nobody has mandated, forced them to get health care.

    ...

    EDWARDS: ... on the issue of Social Security, she said, standing beside me on the stage, that she would not do anything about the cap on Social Security taxes, and she has said privately to people, because it's been reported in the press, that in fact she would consider raising that cap.


    Parent

    JRE sold the 'Clinton waffled' narrative ... (5.00 / 1) (#129)
    by RonK Seattle on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 03:26:39 PM EST
    ... post-debate, and made it stick.

    Left everyone "remembering" a debate other than the one they actually watched.

    Parent

    And there was also (5.00 / 1) (#144)
    by rjarnold on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 03:47:24 PM EST
    this ad that contained a huge lie ("we still don't know the answer") and was very misleading.

    Parent
    Well, Edwards took a position (5.00 / 3) (#109)
    by rjarnold on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:57:06 PM EST
    that made no sense whatsoever.

    Immigration policy experts on both sides of the debate say they're puzzled by Edwards' stance, which appears to hinge on blurring the distinction between state and federal powers.

    "He supports licenses as part of a path to citizenship. He doesn't support the Spitzer plan because it doesn't include a path to citizenship," said Edwards' deputy campaign manager Jonathan Prince in an e-mail referring to the New York governor's plan that prompted the question that flummoxed Clinton.

    "That's not a rational position -- Eliot Spitzer couldn't ever offer somebody a path to citizenship," said Margie McHugh, the Co-Director of the National Center on Immigrant Integration Policy at the Migration Policy Institute, which favors immigration reform.

    "I don't know if they think you're stupid or what they think," said Frank Sharry, the executive director of the National Immigrantion Forum, another broadly pro-immigration policy shop.

    Hillary simply made a mistake in explaining herself at the debate, and gave an explanation the next day that made sense. However, Edwards had a day to clarify his position and took one that didn't even make sense, and flipped from a position he held in 2004.

    But because of the naratives, Hillary was assumed to be the "double-talker" while Edwards was being honest.

    Parent

    You are wrong (5.00 / 8) (#111)
    by nell on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:58:15 PM EST
    I don't have time to find the link, I hope some other generous person will have time to find the video clip, but he hemmed and hawed the same way Hillary did. He was just as bad as she was. I am positive about this because I had the same argument with my partner about a month ago and when he actually saw the clips, he agreed with me. He answered the question just as badly even after he saw her get the question during the last debate, and the press, as usual, gave him a pass. Meanwhile, Hillary was pilloried for her answer for weeks and weeks on end.

    The way Hillary was treated by the press is shameful and disgusting. Media bias in this country is bad, no matter which candidate they are for or against. It was bad when they favored Bush over Gore and/or Kerry and refused to provide the public with objective information, it was bad when they favored Obama over Hillary, and it is still bad now that they are favoring Obama over McCain. The public has a right to have just the facts without the irresponsible editorializing provided by journalists today.

    The difference in the way Hillary and Barack were treated over that question is a really good example of the disparity in the kind of coverage the candidates received.

    Parent

    Sorry, you seem cultish to me.

    Parent
    we can parse that quote (5.00 / 2) (#73)
    by Edgar08 on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:25:43 PM EST
    but I need to do a better job of treating Obama the same way.

    Your comment drives me further a way from Obama.

    I know what she said.

    Parent

    right, because (5.00 / 5) (#90)
    by TimNCGuy on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:34:34 PM EST
    in the very next debate Obama screwed up the very same question about driver's licenses.  But, the difference was that every other candidate and the moderators didn't spend the next 10 minutes attacking him for it.

    Parent
    They had a script written for any occasion (5.00 / 4) (#146)
    by goldberry on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 03:51:47 PM EST
    You didn't see that?  
    It was a question that was deliberately crafted to be used negatively no matter how she answered it.  Not only that but it was a tag team.  Russert set it up and Matthews, Fineman and Mitchell bashed her with it.  
    I wasn't at all confused by her answer because it is a complex problem that requires a lot of thought- which she did.  Out loud.  
    But if you are conditioned to require one dimensional answers to a multi-dimensional question, and if you are susceptible to peer group pressure where someone else has the power to make someone unpopular by their incessant criticism, then I can see why you ended up being an Obama supporter.  Fortunately, the buzz is starting to wear off many others.  

    Parent
    Wow (5.00 / 1) (#200)
    by Jjc2008 on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 05:06:04 PM EST
    Hard to believe anyone still buys that spin.

    Parent
    That is ridiculous imo (none / 0) (#138)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 03:42:36 PM EST
    You know Obama answered the question 3 different ways in 3 different debates so clearly that was not it.

    Cults are ugly things.

    Parent

    Hey! (5.00 / 1) (#48)
    by Ennis on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:13:50 PM EST
    If nobody but Clinton had run in Iowa, she would have won really big.  

    The fact is, Iowa is always a crowded field.  If Clinton had not run there, perhaps Edwards would have won, etc., etc.

    Sheesh (none / 0) (#137)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 03:41:20 PM EST
    These are the type of idiotic comments that pass for wit at some blogs I know, but please, not in my threads.

    Do better or do it elsewhere.


    Parent

    Bowers makes one interesting point (5.00 / 1) (#55)
    by ruffian on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:15:56 PM EST
    when he says that having Edwards in the race pushed the other candidates more to the left.

    Without Edwards pushing Obama a little leftward would Hillary have been seen as the more liberal candidate compared to Obama? (as I believe she is)  If so, we might have been able to isolate the relative effects of CDS and hero-worship (see BTD's earlier post) on the progressive blogosphere.

    Krugman's column (5.00 / 0) (#101)
    by Coral on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:46:34 PM EST
    today salutes Edwards for pushing the health care proposals as far toward universality as possible.

    Personally, I think the big problem in HRC's campaign was Mark Penn. And, the strategy of ignoring the threat in the caucus states. HRC became a better candidate as time went on, but by then, because of the caucuses, it was too late.

    Parent

    not Penn's fault... (5.00 / 4) (#131)
    by p lukasiak on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 03:29:15 PM EST
    Ultimately, the "fault" lies with Clinton -- it was she who chose to run a relentlessly issues-focussed, positive campaign in the face of attacks on her by Obama and Edwards.   And it was her decision to run a primary campaign that would leave her positioned to win the general election -- she'd spent seven years in the Senate positioning herself just left of center, and that left her vulnerable to someone like Obama -- the "blank slate" upon who people could project whatever they wanted in a candidate.

    Parent
    I would also point out (5.00 / 2) (#64)
    by Jeralyn on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:20:19 PM EST
    That Edwards campaigned in Iowa since 2006. He put all of his focus there because he won the state in 2004. He practically lived in Iowa during 2006 and 2007. He had a big following there. Had he abandoned his run at the end of 2006 after telling his wife about the affair, or even when the first media reports on it came out in 2007, Iowans would have had months to rethink their choice.

    Obama  trounced Hillary in the Iowa counties with  higher percentages of non-white voters and fewer older voters. Edwards and she split the votes in those other counties.

    The bright side (5.00 / 1) (#94)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:38:51 PM EST
    (I hope) is that if the Democrats lose the election because they nominated a weaker candidate, then Edwards will be blamed rather than Hillary?

    I can only hope.

    Not just John (5.00 / 2) (#105)
    by Missblu on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:52:47 PM EST
    I recall that Elizabeth Edwards early on was out there giving interviews to the press. She too was doing a good job at criticizing Hillary. Elizabeth had numerous problems with Hillary personally and otherwise. She didn't like her stated reason for running, felt Hillary didn't advocate hard enough for women's issues and ironically tore into her for seeming not to be happy. Calling herself more joyful in an article in a July 17, 07  NY Times edition, declared they were both lawyers married to lawyers, but Elizabeth had made better choices.


    In retrospect (because hindsight is (5.00 / 2) (#150)
    by Grace on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 03:56:42 PM EST
    always 20/20), it appears Elizabeth may have been wrong about that last sentence.

    Calling herself more joyful in an article in a July 17, 07  NY Times edition, declared they were both lawyers married to lawyers, but Elizabeth had made better choices.
     

    Parent
    Hmmm.... (none / 0) (#189)
    by EL seattle on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 04:50:22 PM EST
    I must be missing something.  Elizabeth Edwards made her comments in a July 17, 2007 NYT.  The Enquirer ran their first story in October 2007.  In his public statement this week, John Edwards said:


    In 2006, I made a serious error in judgment and conducted myself in a way that was disloyal to my family and to my core beliefs. I recognized my mistake and I told my wife that I had a liaison with another woman, and I asked for her forgiveness. Although I was honest in every painful detail with my family, I did not tell the public. When a supermarket tabloid told a version of the story, I used the fact that the story contained many falsities to deny it. But being 99% honest is no longer enough.

    So did he "recognize his mistake" and tell his wife before July 2007 or after July 2007?  His statement seems to imply that his admission was closer the date of the 2006 "error in judgement" than the mid-2007 NYT story.

    It look like either he is lying about the details of the affair now, or she was lying about her husband's character then.

    Or I might just be misunderstanding the chronologies, I guess.

    Parent

    Wolfson doesn't want to go there (5.00 / 0) (#106)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:55:00 PM EST
    because had it not been for Bill Clinton's extracurriculars, it's very possible that Gore would have won in 2000 (and I mean won by big enough margins that the Repubs couldn't steal it).

    And (as I've said before), were it not for the Iraq War, this might not be a Democrat's year.  So should Democrats be thankful for Iraq?

    Alas and alack for what could have been.

    And for anyone who doesn't know, I'm NOT an Obama supporter, and wish like h*ll that Hillary won.

    But this is all unknowable territory.

    If Goe had run on the Clinton economic (5.00 / 2) (#154)
    by RalphB on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 03:59:10 PM EST
    record, instead of his own "people v the powerful" rhetoric, he would have won.  Can you seriously doubt if the Gore brain trust had let Bill campaign for him in Arkansas, he would have won there.  If Gore had won Arkansas, Florida would not have mattered.  Come on, get real.

    Parent
    there are clues (none / 0) (#136)
    by Edgar08 on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 03:40:08 PM EST
    for whatever reason, the example you brought up didn't impact clintons job performance numbers one bit.

    Some "what ifs" are more plausible than others.

    Parent

    Big Media never dissected the 'Parsing' spot (5.00 / 4) (#110)
    by RonK Seattle on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:57:11 PM EST
    ... to see if it gave an authentic portrayal of Clinton's statements. They were too busy celebrating it.

    Neither did the blogosphere.

    Yep (none / 0) (#134)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 03:38:22 PM EST
    Ron! Where have you been?! (none / 0) (#139)
    by goldberry on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 03:43:33 PM EST
    Haven't seen you for ages.  You don't call, you don't write.  Are you avoiding us?  

    Parent
    JRE and BO co-branded a Theory of Change (5.00 / 1) (#115)
    by RonK Seattle on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 03:08:49 PM EST
    ... holding that representative democracy is born in a state of innocence. The evils of division and self-interest enter the world only when our representatives reach D.C. and are contacted by lobbyists who ply them with TV money.

    Further, we can interdict this cycle of evil simply by hugging the grass roots and rejecting campaign contributions from lobbyists (even though this solution leaves 99.9% of federal lobbying expenditures unaffected).

    When they write the book about this primary (5.00 / 4) (#128)
    by athyrio on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 03:25:16 PM EST
    particularly from the Clinton standpoint, I will be first in line to buy it...But IMO, Hillary has quadrupled her respect out there in primary land and the next race should be a lot easier I hope for her sake.

    Hm (5.00 / 0) (#130)
    by Steve M on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 03:27:42 PM EST
    I never, ever caught a whiff of these rumors on the blogs before the first National Enquirer story ran.  Even the people who were very negative towards Edwards never said things like "plus, I hear he has a zipper problem."  So I dunno, I guess we all read different blogs.

    I Didn't Read Them Either (5.00 / 1) (#135)
    by BDB on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 03:40:05 PM EST
    But regardless of that, I think there is definitely more than a whiff of male privilege here.  I cannot imagine a woman thinking she could get away with this.  There are so many cultural structures in place to punish unfaithful women (because, of course, women are "naturally" faithful, heh).  Hell, how many people seem angrier at Hillary than they are at Bill for his infidelity and I'm not even going to go into the snide remarks about his screwing around being her fault.  

    There's just no way a woman would even try to get away with this, much less succeed.  And, yes, Edwards did succeed.  While the Enquirer story was published, nothing happened while he was in the race.

    Parent

    Well seriously (none / 0) (#199)
    by Jjc2008 on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 05:03:06 PM EST
    as I said below: Women tend not to think with, be led by their sexual organs.  Call it male privilege or physiology, but the fact is most women in their younger years are too busy working, raising children and still doing 90% of the household chores.  In our older years, we just don't need our egos stroked...8)

    Parent
    My husband does some work in DC and he told (none / 0) (#168)
    by Angel on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 04:18:43 PM EST
    me that there have been many rumors about JE for a long time.  He wasn't at all surprised about the latest revelations.  

    Parent
    I'd heard about them... (none / 0) (#172)
    by kredwyn on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 04:24:09 PM EST
    but I couldn't tell you where...or anything like that. Just that I'd heard something somewhere.

    Without a source, I didn't spread the gossip.

    Parent

    i hadnt heard about them either (none / 0) (#192)
    by Little Fish on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 04:53:44 PM EST
    And I've been all up in the Edward's campaign's business for a few years.

    Parent
    FOX news is talking about this now (5.00 / 0) (#145)
    by Grace on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 03:51:24 PM EST
    I think this is important since so many people donated to him.  

    While paying her to make videos would be considered a campaign expense (no matter how lousy the videos turned out), this $15K a month is something else.  I sure hope he was paying that out of personal funds, not campaign funds.  

    2 way race (5.00 / 3) (#147)
    by mmc9431 on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 03:51:57 PM EST
    I think the events would have been very different without Edwards. There were really only three candidates running in the primaries. Obama Clinton and Edwards. The others were auditioning for cabinet positions. So the primariess would have been a two person race where issues and positions were discussed more than personalities. Obama wouldn't have been able to hide behind the other candidates either. His support of the war would have hit home much sooner.

    At the very least we would have had a much clearer picture of who our nominee really is.

    Obama owes Edwards a bit of thanks (5.00 / 0) (#149)
    by flowergirlovesobama on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 03:54:39 PM EST
    for his contribution to his campaign in Iowa.  What gets me is HOW did the Clintons NOT know about this affair?  I doubt seriously this is something that the National Enquirer had their noses in and the political operatives for the opposition had no clue about.

    Someone in the Clinton camp should have gone to Edwards and threatened to expose him.  I sure as he11 would have!

    If Edwards hadn't run... (5.00 / 1) (#178)
    by kredwyn on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 04:31:02 PM EST
    one of the other down ticket candidates might've had a chance to move further up in the realm of media coverage. That would've been for the good since most of the other candidates had a chunk of experience behind them.

    As it is, I didn't expect her to win in IA. And the media coverage before the primary was that she wasn't expected to win.

    Indeed...the upset was in that Edwards came in 2nd after having lived there for most of the year doing his darnedest to come out on top in IA to gain the Big Mo going into NH.

    Parent

    The Edwards Effect... (5.00 / 3) (#152)
    by HonoraryClinton on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 03:58:32 PM EST
    I don't see any way Obama could have gained the traction he did without Edwards in play against Hillary. You subtract Edwards and you get Presidential Nominee Hillary Clinton.

    Now I need to go bang my head against a wall.

    Please (5.00 / 4) (#156)
    by Steve M on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 04:02:55 PM EST
    The primary is over.  You can stop telling lies like that "as far as I know" crap.  Trolls are not welcome here.

    actually... (5.00 / 2) (#158)
    by kredwyn on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 04:04:38 PM EST
    I think that interview came later. And the "as far as I know" was a tag to, I think, the 5th time she was asked the same question by the reporter who couldn't seem to figure out that she'd answered the question the first 4 times.

    Claims of sour grapes are not relevant.

    Had Edwards not run (and the distance wasn't that great between her and Edwards), it would've been a whole different primary.

    That was, like almost all her posts, (5.00 / 1) (#161)
    by RalphB on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 04:08:50 PM EST
    beautifully written and completely thought out.  She's just great!


    Anglachel (none / 0) (#176)
    by nemo52 on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 04:27:48 PM EST
    Is one of the best.

    Parent
    I'm confused? (5.00 / 1) (#171)
    by Jgarza on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 04:22:09 PM EST
    This is from you:
    I have no idea what would have happened the night of January 3, 2008 if Edwards had not been in the race, but to ignore the fact that John Edwards served as Obama's attack dog in Iowa, as Bowers and the Clinton hating Poblano do, when discussing his effect on the race, is absurd.

    This is from Nate:

    This is not to say that Edwards couldn't possibly have impacted the race in ways that were favorable to Barack Obama. He was probably useful to Obama, for example, in attacking Clinton early on, increasing her negatives without Obama having to pay the price. His endorsement of Obama in May was undoubtedly a big assist to Obama's endgame.

    Unless he added that later, which he may have, your criticism of nate silver seems a bit baseless.

    I believe in my heart if (5.00 / 4) (#179)
    by Jjc2008 on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 04:31:36 PM EST
    it had not been Edwards, Russert, and Matthews vs Hillary in an effort to trash her, things would have been different.  I lost a lot of respect for John that night, more so than upon hearing about his sexual life (which is none of my business anyway).  

    There is no doubt in my mind.  There was a concerted effort between the Edwards and Obama camps to crush Hillary and they knew they could count on the rest of the boys' club, from both MSNBC and the DNC to help them.  

    This primary was stolen by a lot of people and they know it.  Perhaps the American people need to start thinking about this.  Don't want to take a chance on someone who might think with his sexual parts, elect a woman.

    I would say that w/out Edwards in Iowa (5.00 / 1) (#184)
    by Exeter on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 04:47:06 PM EST
    The two-person race between Obama and Hillary would have congealed earlier. The anti-Obama sentiment and pro-Hillary excitement would have probably happened before Iowa instead of after Super Tuesday.  

    Speechless. (5.00 / 1) (#205)
    by pie on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 05:20:24 PM EST
    I love the way the Democrats have picked up the old Republican whine about the media.

    How long have you been reading about the Bush administration and media coverage?  You know, the worst administration ever?

    As to your other points, how's the air in that bubble?

    Good grief.

    7 months later, Iowa's still popular (5.00 / 1) (#206)
    by Farmboy on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 05:23:43 PM EST
    Hooray for us!

    The results from our caucus were Edwards 40+%, Obama 37+%, and Clinton at the minimum 15%.  These results aren't out of line for most rural precincts (Obama did best in the urban areas).  Without Edwards in the race I'd say the results from Iowa could've been different - probably no clear winner.

    Obviously, she would have won. All you have to do (5.00 / 1) (#207)
    by masslib on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 05:30:01 PM EST
    is look at the break-down of county cuacus votes.  

    If John Edwards (5.00 / 4) (#209)
    by Bluesage on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 06:31:39 PM EST
    Had been an honorable man he would never have entered the race but to think his run had no effect is not being realistic.  Of course it had an effect and when he tag teamed with Obama in the debates it had an effect.  But, it is also an effect that cannot be definatively known.  He took a risk for his own ego and narcissicism and the result was he tampered with our election.  He should be shunned in the political world for all time.  I don't care about the affair, that is unfortunately Elizabeth's and the kids problem but I do care that he took that risk for his own selfish reasons.

    Edwards is one person, and had only so much (4.00 / 1) (#182)
    by WillBFair on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 04:43:17 PM EST
    effect, even as a candidate.
    More important to me was the media's smear campaign against Hillary. That took many many people, and resouces, and coordination, and had much worse effect.
    I don't think it's wise to keep rehashing Edwards' role. It makes the dems and Obama look bad, which, except on policy issues, we shouldn't do right now.  

    Its all the evil media's fault. (1.00 / 2) (#204)
    by John Locke on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 05:14:12 PM EST
    I love the way the Democrats have picked up the old Republican whine about the media.  The media hyped Hillary for a year going into the primaries as the unbeatable candidate.  They practically coronated her.  Meanwhile, every attack against Obama, from Reverend Wright to the so-called madrassa to Obama and William Ayers (flogged again and again by Howard Wolfson and Phil Singer) to Obama in Somali garb was first distributed by the Clinton campaign and was then run 24/7 on the various cable news channels and the networks' Sunday Morning Sabbath Gasbags.  Even Clinton friend George Stephanopolis was taking advice from Sean Hannity on smear questions to ask Obama.

    The media did not cost Hillary her campaign.  They may well have turned on her when she and her staff started self-destructing, but the media are basically rabid wolves who will turn on anybody (except, apparently, their buddy John McCain) when they smell blood in the water.

    Leave the scapegoating of the media to the wackaloon ravers on the reactionary Right.  If there is one thing we don't need if we are to restore the reputation and respect for Liberals, Progressives, and Leftists, it is to develop our own corps of wackaloon ravers on the Left.

    Parent

    Primary vs Caucus (3.66 / 3) (#68)
    by StevenT on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:21:31 PM EST
    If Iowa were to hold primary instead of a caucus, Hillary would have clearly won. So revamping to make our nomination system fair and democratic should be the priority. No point crying over what had happened. But i'm convince that if Edwards is not on the ballot, Hillary would have won because the unions would have been for Hillary and unions understand caucus best as their game the system every election. This is the reason why Edwards stood no chance in primaries because only active union members are for him.

    leadership....It was not NBC's fault (2.00 / 0) (#141)
    by Jlvngstn on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 03:43:50 PM EST
    perhaps this might lend some insight:

    "In the Atlantic article, which is based on internal Clinton campaign memos and e-mail messages, Green highlighted bitter fighting among Clinton's staff, writing that her advisers "couldn't execute strategy; they routinely attacked and undermined each other, and Clinton never forced a resolution."

    The internal communication also suggests that the lack of clear lines of authority within the campaign meant that issues that ultimately led to Clinton's defeat -- her lack of support in the Iowa caucuses, the absence of a strategy to capture delegates after the Super Tuesday primaries and her failure to prepare for a protracted primary fight -- went unaddressed for months, Green wrote.

    "What is clear from the internal documents is that Clinton's loss derived not from specific decisions she made but rather from the preponderance of the many she did not make," Green wrote. "Her hesitancy and habit of avoiding hard choices exacted a price that eventually sank her chances at the presidency."

    Not sure what that does to excuse the NBC (5.00 / 1) (#164)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 04:10:51 PM EST
    behavior.

    Parent
    tipping point (1.00 / 1) (#165)
    by Jlvngstn on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 04:17:22 PM EST
    it goes to argue your tipping point.  Sounds like you are looking for someone else to blame and frankly the campaign as I saw it was a disaster. And we both know that I have had buyers remorse for several weeks. the campaign was awful and if you believe that story, it was rife with poor leadership which is scary considering the job at stake.  Maybe no one is to blame but her....

    Parent
    The Campaign Was Not Awful (5.00 / 6) (#169)
    by BDB on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 04:21:06 PM EST
    I was in NH where Clinton out organized Obama.  The Obama folks were going into neighborhoods for the first time on election day, ones that Clinton had already hit repeatedly.

    I was also out here in California where Clinton's drive to get absentee ballots and organize latinos and asians made the difference on February 5.

    Clinton won every big state.  If she did that with a lousy campaign, then I don't know what that says about Obama.

    Parent

    It says (5.00 / 0) (#175)
    by Jlvngstn on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 04:26:41 PM EST
    a freshman senator beat one of the most recognizable names in the WORLD.  It should come as no surprise she won CA and TX and NY, so what?  One of the most recognizable names in politics, printing presses printing money and one of the most popular "economy presidents" in this century and they couldn't knock off a jr senator from illinois.  It is a story book american tale about underdogs and crappy campaigning...

    Parent
    for anyone who is interested (none / 0) (#180)
    by Jlvngstn on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 04:35:52 PM EST
    Whether the campaign was a (5.00 / 3) (#201)
    by Jjc2008 on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 05:09:37 PM EST
    disaster (in your point of view) or not has nothing whatsoever to do with the blatant, nasty  and in my point of view (we all get one you know), person anti Clinton bias of NBC.  Add that to their blatant and obnoxious sexism, I will never get why any progressive or democrat or liberal would excuse them.

    Parent
    The blame DOES (2.00 / 1) (#170)
    by flowergirlovesobama on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 04:21:29 PM EST
    lie with Clinton.  For all the talk of the legendary Clinton political machine, someone forgot to greeze the wheels.  

    Obama won because he gamed the caucuses better.  And considering the amount of money that Clinton spent/wasted there, makes me wonder how good their operation was, or, how badly it was.  

    Just like people like to say that Obama outspent her in PA, well she outspent him and look what happened.

    Parent

    NBC (none / 0) (#174)
    by flowergirlovesobama on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 04:25:49 PM EST
    is it in for the money and the demographic that Senator Obama brings with him.  It's a cache advertisers vie for.

    I fault management at NBC by not reigning in some of their anchors with their obvious dislike for Clinton. But Obama got his message out, people liked it, responded to it, and with a little help from the media, he is where he is today.

    Parent

    Well... (5.00 / 1) (#185)
    by pie on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 04:47:19 PM EST
    Obama got his message out, people liked it, responded to it,

    suddenly they started really listening to both candidates, and things changed.

    Parent

    Please define "little," as in (none / 0) (#190)
    by Angel on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 04:51:49 PM EST
    "with a little help from the media..."

    Parent
    Heh. (none / 0) (#197)
    by pie on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 05:02:13 PM EST
    I'm Sure Whoever Leaked Those Emails (5.00 / 6) (#166)
    by BDB on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 04:18:00 PM EST
    had absolutely no ulterior motive and did no cherry picking at all.  I'm not even going to get into The Atlantic, which seems determined to join TNR on its way down in terms of quality (although I do like James Fallows).

    If you had told anyone before this race began that Clinton would win California, NY, Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Texas and would not be the nominee, no one would've believed you.  Her campaign would've won in any other year.  It was only because Obama found a way to leverage the caucuses (whether legitimately or not) and the proportional allocation of delegates that he was able to "win."  And even then he didn't win, the SDs decided it.

    Which is not to say that Clinton ran a perfect campaign, but nobody runs a perfect campaign.  And for all the talk of how great Obama's ground game was, in the states where Clinton really competed, she won nearly all of them (New Hampshire, Indiana, Texas, etc.).  The important exception being Iowa.  Most of Obama's vaunted ground game occurred in states where Clinton either didn't compete or had demographics that made it almost impossible for her to win (Maryland, the Carolinas).

    Parent

    Carville did a good defensive interview on it (5.00 / 2) (#173)
    by JavaCityPal on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 04:24:36 PM EST
    this morning. He said all campaigns banter every idea that they think of and then make decisions based on the candidate's choice, and the reality of what will fly. Most ideas go nowhere. Anyone who's ever been part of planning a strategy should be smart enough to know just how this goes.

    Patty S-D may well have been the one who took those along with her, or a staffer who needed to make more money than the campaign was paying.

    Who knows? Who cares? Hillary isn't the nominee, and it's just another great big fat distraction from the questions that still need to be asked of Obama.


    Parent

    that's a fair statement (none / 0) (#151)
    by flowergirlovesobama on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 03:57:40 PM EST
    I heard from a lot of people who volunteered for the Clinton campaign in and around the Virginia/Baltimore/DC area that her operatives acted like complete amateurs.  Maybe the Clintons thought that their brand/name was good enough.

    Parent
    Here'a another (5.00 / 1) (#183)
    by pie on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 04:44:54 PM EST
    helpful comment.

    /rolls eyes

    And I have a friend, a lawyer, who lives in VA, who actually worked for Clinton, and tells the exact opposite story that you do.

    Hmmmmm.  Whom to believe...

    Parent

    What Edwards Did in Iowa (1.50 / 2) (#188)
    by John Locke on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 04:49:54 PM EST
    First of all, Edwards was attacking the candidate that, until after Iowa, was considered the frontrunner. That is what all trailing candidates do to advance themselves against a frontrunner.

    That doesn't make him the Obama campaign's attack dog, just the Edwards campaign's attack dog - that's politics.  When Obama became the frontrunner, everybody (including Hillary and her supporters) turned into attack dogs against Obama for exactly the same reason.

    Secondly, there is the implication in your post that if Edwards had been unmasked as an adulterer before Iowa and forced out of the campaign, then Hillary would have done better and might even be the putative nominee right now.

    Of course, if Bill Clinton had been unmasked as an adulterer in 1992 and forced to withdraw from his first presidential campaign, Hillary Clinton would by now be (un)known on this website as "Hillary who?" just the barest footnote in history - the wife (or ex-wife) of one more failed campaigner for office, brought down by his private indiscretions becoming public.

    Be careful before going about casting stones...


    Heh (5.00 / 1) (#191)
    by Steve M on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 04:52:24 PM EST
    Bill Clinton's adultery was, of course, unmasked in the 1992 campaign.  You might recall a 60 Minutes appearance on the subject.

    Personally, I find the suggestion that Hillary Clinton never would have gotten anywhere career-wise if her husband hadn't been elected President to be more than just a little bit sexist, but your mileage may vary.

    Parent

    You do not know the facts. Go study up on the (5.00 / 1) (#194)
    by Angel on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 04:57:15 PM EST
    history of Bill and Hillary, both as a couple and as seperate individuals, and come back for a proper discussion.  

    Parent
    You need to read more history (4.50 / 2) (#202)
    by Cream City on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 05:10:54 PM EST
    and then you can worry about the footnotes later.  Focus on the front of the book first.

    That's what I tell the frosh.  When you get to graduate-student level of knowledge, we'll talk some more.

    Parent

    I think you need (none / 0) (#196)
    by pie on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 05:01:23 PM EST
    a nice, cold shower of reality.

    Parent
    Worked like a charm (none / 0) (#203)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 05:12:12 PM EST
    Great strategy Edwards employed. Led to a smashing victory in Iowa.

    Yep. You are 100% correct.

    Parent

    I have to admit, (1.00 / 0) (#79)
    by lizpolaris on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:28:31 PM EST
    that's a thought that crossed my mind also.

    If only Russert had passed away a few months earlier, say mid Oct, where would we be right now?

    And the fact that we even ask that question, is  the twisted crap we accept as 'journalism' evidently out of control?  Biased newsreaders continue to influence elections in the US...I recall Peter Jennings grinning his way through Reagan coverage.

    rather than blaming Edwards, (none / 0) (#57)
    by Little Fish on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:17:04 PM EST
    wouldn't a more effective strategy for the Clinton campaign have been to bail on Iowa and pour the warchest into ST states and beyond? I always shake my head when I think about how much money they poured into that state.

    Speculation (none / 0) (#104)
    by Coral on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:50:20 PM EST
    How does the revelation about Edwards affect Obama's VP choice? I bet everyone involved on both Republican and Democratic sides is suddenly doing even more research.


    Or at least having (5.00 / 1) (#112)
    by ruffian on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 03:00:22 PM EST
    'come to jesus' meetings with their short list.

    Hope Dean is having one with Obama re: Rezko too.

    Parent

    nahhh (none / 0) (#121)
    by Capt Howdy on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 03:15:43 PM EST
    they have other things to worry about.  what, you say?  Hillary of course.  this is from a Moonie Times piece on the fact that independents are turning to McCain:

    " . . . after the Democratic convention and there will be much more interest [in Mr. Obama] generated among people who are watching it," said Democratic media strategist Bud Jackson.
    Still, Mr. Jackson expressed concern about his party's upcoming convention because of the strained relations between Mrs. Clinton and the Obama campaign.
    Presumptive Republican presidential nominee Sen. John McCain dines with former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge, as well as Mr. Ridge's wife, Michelle, (left) and his daughter Lesley, in Pennsylvania on Sunday. Enthusiasm has grown for the senator from Arizona as his campaign becomes more aggressive. (Associated Press)
    "You never know. Bad things can happen at conventions and Democrats need to be careful [that] Hillary doesn't somehow ultimately cause some sort of acrimony at the convention among her supporters or makes Obama look like a weaker nominee," Mr. Jackson said.

    Moonie Times

    Centrist voters are tilting from Obama

    Parent

    sorry (none / 0) (#124)
    by Capt Howdy on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 03:17:45 PM EST
    heres the quote:

    " . . . after the Democratic convention and there will be much more interest [in Mr. Obama] generated among people who are watching it," said Democratic media strategist Bud Jackson.
    Still, Mr. Jackson expressed concern about his party's upcoming convention because of the strained relations between Mrs. Clinton and the Obama campaign.
    "You never know. Bad things can happen at conventions and Democrats need to be careful [that] Hillary doesn't somehow ultimately cause some sort of acrimony at the convention among her supporters or makes Obama look like a weaker nominee," Mr. Jackson said.

    Parent

    Bowers didn't ignore Edwards attacks (none / 0) (#120)
    by mindfulmission on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 03:14:44 PM EST
    but to ignore the fact that John Edwards served as Obama's attack dog in Iowa, as Bowers and the Clinton hating Poblano do, when discussing his effect on the race, is absurd.

    Umm... Bowers did NOT ignore this fact.  Bowers mentioned Edwards attacks:
    Third, it would have been one less voice attacking Clinton on her ties to the establishment, which undoubtedly hurt her.


    "One less voice" (none / 0) (#133)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 03:37:42 PM EST
    is such an understatement as to make the reference seem deceitful frankly.

    Parent
    anything coming out of Poblano's fingers, (none / 0) (#148)
    by kredwyn on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 03:54:26 PM EST
    I take with one...maybe two...of these.

    all the same (none / 0) (#159)
    by lilburro on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 04:05:14 PM EST
    a lot more money went to Mark Penn...and I don't feel so good about that.  I still donated.  Goes with the territory.

    Lies are not tolerated here (none / 0) (#162)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 04:09:20 PM EST
    Do them again and you will be banned from my threads.

    State your opinions, as silly as they may be, but keep the lying to yourself.  

    Now wait a minute (none / 0) (#167)
    by flowergirlovesobama on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 04:18:23 PM EST
    I read all the time that "if Obama loses the election it's HIS fault.  So why isn't to his credit if he wins?  Edwards was a losing proposition, even Kerry knew it, hence his defection to Obama.  OR maybe Kerry knew about the affair.

    I think that to pin Edwards for Clintons loss or a contribution to her loss is suspect.  Clinton lost because she failed to campaign there in the way she probably should have.

    Why Hillary Lost (5.00 / 0) (#193)
    by John Locke on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 04:55:54 PM EST
    In the end, I suspect that the major reason Hillary lost was that her campaign staff were constantly at each others' throats, trying to undermine each other, doing end-runs around each other.  Hillary showed that she lacked even the executive ability to manage her own relatively small campaign staff, let alone a national government - a weakness that is even more glaring in John McCain's campaign.

    Obama has a reputation going back to the day he first entered the Senate for selecting the right people and managing them well.  His presidential campaign staff was unified and worked well together toward the common goal - and basically outmaneuvered Hillary's staff time after time.

    Neither Hillary Clinton nor John McCain has demonstrated the innate executive ability to select quality people and manage them effectively.  Whatever his political experience or lack of same, you can't say that about Obama.  

    Parent

    Rah! Rah! Rah! (5.00 / 3) (#195)
    by pie on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 05:00:01 PM EST
    I can say plenty about Obama's experience and qualifications and have, actually.

    Doesn't compare to either of the other two candidates.

    Obama lost track of his campaign in March, April, May, and June.  I guess it's because he had nothing else to offer.

    Parent

    Then why can't Obama close the deal??? (5.00 / 5) (#198)
    by Angel on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 05:02:25 PM EST
    He should be ahead by double digits in the polls right now but he isn't.  I guess maybe he needs to manage his staff a little better, huh?  

    Parent
    Speaking of Teeing Up Against Hillary (none / 0) (#211)
    by fctchekr on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 11:09:19 PM EST
    The new attack is that she was told to paint Obama as un-American. I've seen it at several media outlets. Originally in an Atlantic piece out today?. CNN's piece: "Memos show Clinton line of attack." There not putting this out there without a very good reason. It's news, but it's news to make Clinton look bad. Once he picks someone else for VP it will inevitably stop, till she comes into the spotlight again, running for something.  

    Edwards more guilty than Bill... (none / 0) (#212)
    by fctchekr on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 11:35:40 PM EST
    Our ethical code of acceptability as predicated by law shouldn't supercede our own ethical moral compass.

    Bill deceived and lied to protect his position and his family from an immoral act; however that act played no part in the political actions at the time.

    Edwards, knowing that his past conduct could bring him down, as well as others,his party, ran for office under a false perception, allowed both Obama and Clinton to seek his endorsement, both not knowing about his actions, and then he went on to accept interviews and appearances based on this false perception, and finally he had the audacity to endorse Obama in front of millions of Americans, still hiding his true moral compass.

    This is as bad as lying under oath. IMO it's worse. He deceived everyone for how long?? A long time; and the press, instead of investigating him, had absolutely no intention of using it because it didn't serve their purposes.

    There is after all no one to indict the media, but us.