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More On The Russia-Georgia Conflict

Glenn Greenwald interviews Georgetown professor Charles King. A highlight:

GG: One of the things that's a little difficult to understand is this idea that Georgia miscalculated what would be Russia's response. . . . It is really a surprise that Russia reacted the way that it did?

CK: Well, it's not a terrible surprise, but I think you also have to look at things from the Georgian perspective. Over the last several years, Georgia has become increasingly convinced that it's a real partner of the United States, that the US would defend Georgia - practically regardless of what Georgia did - that Georgia was simply reasserting control over bits of territory that are still internationally recognized as Georgia's own. And so I think the Georgians' political elite, particularly the president and the people very close to him, probably convinced themselves of two things. One, that they could do this quickly and successfully, that is, re-take South Ossetia, and secondly, that if there were a Russian response . . . that the United States would somehow step in to defend them, and in fact both of those calculations have turned out to be wrong.

(Emphasis supplied.) Read the whole thing.

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    Interesting that every MCM report I've seen/heard (5.00 / 3) (#3)
    by jawbone on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 06:28:17 PM EST
    on the Georgia situation has been about the Georgian side, their soldiers, their president. Yes, there has been some video and written reports of things Medvedev and Putin have said, but the explanations and human interest stories have been about Georgia. Reporters can't get into Russia? Can't get to the Russian front? Whassup?

    The MCM being fed by the administration? The MCM developing The Georgia Narrative?

    Also, tonight on NPR, Kagin (must check name) was interviewed and during the interview both his NPR questioner and he himself used comparisons from the Nazis invasions of Czechoslovakia and Poland. The burning question for me was what was the influence on this whole mess of the US invasion of Iraq? Never mentioned. Seems to be the comparison that dare not be made by the MCM.... Not good for The Narrative.

    Then, on CBS, Andrew Wyatt stated as fact certain that the invasion had nothing to with South Ossetia, but was simply Russia's desire to control the nighborhood. Possible, surely. But, what about the attack by Georgian military on Ossetia? Killing and wounding both civilians and Russian peacekeeper troops stationed there?

    Then, Wyatt continued to state as fact certain that Putin had been planning this invasion for seven years. Proof? One minute he was in Beijing, shown speaking with Bush, and then he was at a military hospital visiting wounded Russian soldiers. What further proof does one need?

    Some experts came on to support this MCM Narrative.

    Of course, one minute Bush was in Beijing as well, and then, OMG!, he was in DC, speaking to the press about how last century Russia's actions were! (If you think this is proof of air travel making it possible to move with relative speed from one continent to another, go to the head of the class, but do not apply for an MCM job.)
    In this century, Bush invaded Iraq, but, hey.

    What was the BushCo role in Georgia's decision to attack Ossetia on Friday? Unknown at this point.

    There's probably going to be a huge backstory to this.

    MCM--Mainstream Corporate Media

    I was wondering the same thing listening to NPR (5.00 / 2) (#6)
    by samtaylor2 on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 06:31:13 PM EST
    I was so angry that he ignored the return to 19th century style nation as actually starting with our little invasion

    Parent
    If people weren't being killed (5.00 / 0) (#35)
    by litigatormom on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 07:14:19 PM EST
    Bush's whinge in the Rose Garden that Russia has damaged its standing in the international community would be funny.

    How on Earth could the Georgians have thought the US would intervene militarily on their behalf?  We can't even manage Iraq and Afghanistan. Did Dubya tell the Georgian president that he'd looked in Putin's soul and he could get Pootie-toot to back down after a little bro' to bro' chat?

    Parent

    I just don't get these people (5.00 / 1) (#39)
    by Steve M on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 07:20:42 PM EST
    Do they think worrying about one's standing in the international community is just for other people?

    The GOP couldn't be clearer about the notion that worrying about what other countries think of us is for wussy liberals.  But they expect other nations to engage in the very same mode of analysis that they disdain!  Do you think they understand the contradiction?

    Parent

    Yes, they think (none / 0) (#63)
    by weltec2 on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 10:20:55 PM EST
    it is just for other people. And it isn't a question of whether they understand the contradiction or not... they arrogantly and belligerently do not care.


    Parent
    McCain wants to (none / 0) (#55)
    by coigue on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 08:49:39 PM EST
    NPR has the Robert Kagan interview up now-- (none / 0) (#9)
    by jawbone on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 06:35:21 PM EST
    The Georgians were insane... (5.00 / 2) (#13)
    by Jerrymcl89 on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 06:42:12 PM EST
    ... if they thought the US would go to war with Russia on their behalf. Although, obviously, the Bush administration, in it'a zeal to get Georgia's cooperation in Iraq and other matters, seemingly botched their responsibility to make sure Georgia understood that.

    I do fault the Russians more than the Georgians in all of this, but it really isn't an entirely one-side-is-wrong matter.

    Also the Georgian (none / 0) (#50)
    by MichaelGale on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 08:32:02 PM EST
    people asking "Where's Bush"? They are flummoxed truly expecting the US to come to the rescue.

    They turned out for him in 2005: Tens of thousands of Georgians filled Tbilisi's Freedom Square to welcome the US president on his first trip to the country that underwent a popular revolution 19 months ago.

    He added: "You've got a solid friend in America."...."He had earlier stopped short of offering help in securing a Russian military withdrawal."If the president were to call and want me to make a phone call or two, I'd be more than happy to do so," he added.

    Heh

    Parent

    Don't be so sure... (none / 0) (#64)
    by weltec2 on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 10:31:13 PM EST
    Rice, Cheney, and Bush were talking with the G8 minus Russia yesterday looking for a Coalition of the Stupid. The Big Seven have condemned Russia's actions. Puuuvedev has thumbed his two headed nose at them. This administration would love another war. And these people do not care how many people die as long as it isn't them.

    Parent
    Not gonna happen. (none / 0) (#71)
    by JoeA on Tue Aug 12, 2008 at 04:13:50 AM EST
    Whose army are they going to use?  The Bush administration can't get anyone to pony up soldiers for Afghanistan, never mind a hot war witha 1st World military and nuclear arsenal like Georgia.

    Georgia are on their own and the only leverage the West has against Russia is kicking them out of the G8 or holding up their WTO entry.  I'm sure Putin is quaking in his furry boots.

    Parent

    heh, for Georgia read Russia in above comment (none / 0) (#72)
    by JoeA on Tue Aug 12, 2008 at 04:14:19 AM EST
    the G8 is irrelevant (none / 0) (#73)
    by bigbay on Tue Aug 12, 2008 at 04:46:33 AM EST
    without China.

    China will have the 3rd largest economy after this year. The 2nd largest in 5 years. Putin can just sell his energy to them. He doesn't like Europe anyway.

    Parent

    Something interesting (5.00 / 1) (#15)
    by Steve M on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 06:47:22 PM EST
    I always felt Joe Biden really got short shrift in the primary, given his experience and wealth of knowledge on foreign policy.  I'm not saying he should have been the nominee, but I felt like he deserved a little more attention than 1% of the vote.

    Anyway, today I stumbled across this from the November 2007 Democratic debate in Las Vegas:

    BIDEN: But look, folks, let's get straight to it here. This is not about experience. It's not about change. It's about action.

    Who among us is going to be able to, on day one, step in and end the war? Who among us understands what to do about Pakistan? Who among us is going to pick up the phone and immediately interface with Putin and lay off Georgia because Saakashvili is in real trouble?

    Who among us knows what they're doing? I have 35 years of experience. While everyone's talking about their experience -- and Hillary has great experience and John and the rest of them, I was passing the Violence Against Women Act.

    BIDEN: I was passing the crime bill. I was passing...

    (UNKNOWN): You're right.

    (APPLAUSE)

    That Joe Biden, he knows his trouble spots!  Anyway, just caught my eye.

    Fine (5.00 / 1) (#28)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 07:03:46 PM EST
    But he voted for the Iraq War. I know he worked hard to change the IWR but, in the end, he voted for war with Iraq.

    Parent
    Why are you beating the dead horse? (none / 0) (#31)
    by pie on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 07:07:39 PM EST
    Dead horse? (5.00 / 1) (#40)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 07:24:27 PM EST
    Did I miss the end of the Iraq Debacle?

    That horse seems alive and kicking to me.

    Parent

    Beating the dead horse is (none / 0) (#45)
    by pie on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 07:35:14 PM EST
    beating those who voted for the AUMF.

    People need to move on.

    It's history.

    What are you going to do NOW?

    Parent

    Nothing else to whip? (none / 0) (#33)
    by RalphB on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 07:09:25 PM EST
    why are you? (none / 0) (#56)
    by coigue on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 08:57:44 PM EST
    Hillary can also see beyond the nose (5.00 / 2) (#32)
    by RalphB on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 07:07:41 PM EST
    on her face.  Maybe Biden should call Putin since he knows him so well, eh?  Being old experienced buddies and all.

    Statement by Hillary Clinton on Georgia and Ukraine 4/18/2008

    I am deeply disturbed by the latest Russian actions regarding Georgia, and Russia's broader policies towards its neighbors.

    Several weeks ago I called on NATO to extend a Membership Action Plan (MAP) to Georgia and Ukraine at the Bucharest Summit. I emphasized that this move would be a litmus test for the success of President Bush's leadership of the trans-Atlantic community. My support for MAP was based on the need to send a positive signal to Tbilisi and Kyiv to encourage them to stay on track with their positive reforms as well as to send a signal of our concern to Moscow about the future security of these countries.

    I deeply regret President Bush's inability to convince our NATO allies to take this action. This is the first time in memory a U.S. President has traveled to a NATO summit and failed to achieve his publicly proclaimed goals.

    Now the Russian government has taken advantage of the lack of unity coming out of the Bucharest Summit to further ratchet up the pressure on young democracies on its borders. Moscow's actions this week to strengthen ties with the separatist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia undermine the territorial integrity of the state of Georgia and are clearly designed to destabilize the government of President Mikheil Saakashvili.

    Georgia is a small democratic state in a turbulent region. It must not be allowed to be undermined. Two weeks ago President Bush sat with President Putin in Sochi just a few kilometers away from the Georgian border. He prided himself on his close working relationship with Vladimir Putin. President Bush should call on the Russian leadership to immediately rescind these steps.

    I also call on President Bush to immediately send a senior representative to Tbilisi to show our support for the government of Georgia. The United States should raise this matter in the United Nations Security Council, in a special 26+1 session of NATO's North Atlantic Council (NAC), and in the NATO-Russia Council. Russia needs to hear a unified message from the United States and our European partners about our shared commitment to Georgia's security and territorial integrity.

    These are not the only Russian moves that I have found troubling. Senior Russian officials have engaged in a pressure campaign to prevent Ukraine from seeking deeper ties with NATO. President Putin even raised the prospect of retargeting nuclear missiles against Ukraine.

    I am not advocating, nor do I envisage, a return to a new Cold War with Russia, which I believe ought to remain in the G-8, where the United States and its allies can together address our growing list of concerns with Moscow. But the current Administration's mishandling of Russian relations has contributed to Moscow's belief that it can do as it pleases. America and its allies can and must do better.

    Parent

    Negotiations (none / 0) (#68)
    by weltec2 on Tue Aug 12, 2008 at 12:20:54 AM EST
    have never been Bush's strong suit. What a bungler and in such a strategic region. And now we are about to elect another person without negotiation skills who avoided town hall meetings with McCain. I am not looking forward to the next four years.

    Parent
    It's not Obama. (none / 0) (#21)
    by pie on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 06:54:16 PM EST
    That's fer shure.

    Parent
    Iraq. (5.00 / 1) (#18)
    by pie on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 06:49:54 PM EST
    Yes.

    Misconceptions.

    Yes.

    Oil.

    Yes.

    I don't know a whole lot about this... (none / 0) (#1)
    by OrangeFur on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 06:21:26 PM EST
    But it seems to me that while Georgia may have "started" it by sending its military into South Ossetia, the Russian response has been very heavy-handed. South Ossetia is, after all, indisputably part of Georgia, and the Russian response has now extended itself to a second separatist province (?) of Georgia and into the main part of Georgia as well. Doesn't this smell a bit like an invasion, especially given what we've seen of Putin before?

    Again, I don't know a whole lot about this, so could be wrong.

    Ummm (none / 0) (#2)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 06:25:00 PM EST
    That South Ossetia is part of Georgia has very much been in dispute for 16 years.

    Georgia's actions were brutal, bloody and just plain stupid.

    Your comment is not well informed imo.

    That Russia, under the direction of the thug Putin is taking advantage of the situation hardly changes that.

    Parent

    Well... (none / 0) (#7)
    by Addison on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 06:32:03 PM EST
    That South Ossetia is part of Georgia has very much been in dispute for 16 years.

    By South Ossetians, yes. But not by the international community.

    Parent

    Disagree (none / 0) (#12)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 06:40:24 PM EST
    They accepted Russia as
    peacekeepers" for some time now.

    This was not a powderkeg waiting to explode.

    Parent

    I think that's true... (none / 0) (#22)
    by Addison on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 06:54:42 PM EST
    ...as long as you accept that Georgia should have accepted without response the Russian-enforced status quo that de facto stripped Georgia of one of it's provinces on fairly irredentist grounds.

    Now, I actually think they should have at least thought about just saying bye-bye to a region that absolutely didn't want to be a part of it. I think most states should think about that. So while the above may seem like sarcasm, it's not too far off what maybe should've been accepted.

    Parent

    those who think about the integrity of (none / 0) (#44)
    by Christy1947 on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 07:32:58 PM EST
    Georgia vs. ethnically distinct areas with a history of independence and a desire for autonomy need to review their views of Serbia and Kosovo at that time and what we did. We here don't have three or four distinct communities within a single boundary the way they often do in the Caucasus and the Balkans. And SO was not a part of Georgia but a separate autonomous region before Georgia started trying to eliminate that autonomy.  Hello, Kurds.

    This is a righteous mess, but one which has more resonance there where Russia and a lot of the indpedent former republics have this as a long-standing domestic problem.

    Parent

    Well... (none / 0) (#57)
    by OrangeFur on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 09:08:45 PM EST
    ... as far as I can tell, while South Ossetia has declared independence, no country in the world recognizes that, not even Russia.

    Further, even if Georgia was wrong to send troops into what every country in the world says is Georgian territory, does that give Russia the right to swarm into not only South Ossetia, but Abkhazia and the rest of Georgia? There's doesn't seem to be any dispute that Russian troops have advanced well past those territories.

    Maybe the Georgian government miscalculated. But the Russian response seems dramatically disproportionate, and rather preplanned as well.

    Parent

    Check the Wiki entry -- explains the attempts for (none / 0) (#8)
    by jawbone on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 06:32:31 PM EST
    independence since early 1990's.

    Quick read.

    In 2006, referendum for breaking away passed overwhelmingly and had huge turnout for the vote.

    Parent

    Suspiciously huge turnout... (none / 0) (#11)
    by Addison on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 06:39:47 PM EST
    ...IMO.

    Though fairly representative of the people they were counting (non-Georgians), I bet.

    Parent

    may I ask? (none / 0) (#14)
    by Florida Resident on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 06:44:08 PM EST
    are you an expert on South Ossetia?

    Parent
    If you disagree... (none / 0) (#26)
    by Addison on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 07:02:54 PM EST
    ...say so.

    Don't pull this sophomoric nonsense, please.


    Parent

    You sound knowledgeable about the subject (none / 0) (#34)
    by Florida Resident on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 07:13:13 PM EST
    so I was wondering if you have knowledge on the subject that I could draw from.  Me I know a lot about Ukraine cause as a child I was made to study our history.  As someone of Ukrainian descent I have no love for Russia.  Now I ask again are you knowledgeable on the subject?

    Parent
    Well... (5.00 / 1) (#38)
    by Addison on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 07:19:54 PM EST
    ...if you were asking me in good faith, and really wanted to know, I really apologize for my comment.

    No, I'm not an expert. I know enough. I did study up a lot on Georgia in preparation for a trip there. And I saw tons and tons and tons of Russian news about the ongoing conflict during the last two-three years.

    I wish I had more time to study up on the Ukraine.

    Parent

    Well my knowledge of Ossetia is limited (none / 0) (#48)
    by Florida Resident on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 08:12:12 PM EST
    something I am trying to correct by reading up on the specific area. I do know that the whole area (the Caucasus) is full of small pockets of ethnically distinct populations since this area was part of what is sometimes referred to as the Silk Road.  

    Parent
    Right... (none / 0) (#60)
    by Addison on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 10:02:30 PM EST
    ...the Silk Road was made up of ethnically distinct peoples. Many nomadic peoples.

    This was exploited by the USSR by placing many different groups in the same "country" (actually just a separate Russian colony) in order to play one group against the other. In order to make sure a nation was never united against Moscow.

    Not to mention the active killings of the dissidents who wanted to assert their own culture and voice.

    A tragedy which the Ukraine is sadly familiar with.

    Again, I'm sorry about insulting you earlier. I thought you were saying something different.

    Parent

    Addison is to be trusted (5.00 / 1) (#42)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 07:27:40 PM EST
    Here's not always right, but he is always earnest and honest.

    If he says something is a fact and not his opinion, it is my inclination to trust him.

    He is a commenter we strongly welcome here.


    Parent

    Honestly... (none / 0) (#62)
    by Addison on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 10:11:08 PM EST
    ...unless I'm being messed with I think I screwed up here. I was way too quick on the draw with that response to him, and I feel really bad about it.

    Thank you for what you said. You already know that I respect you for almost the exact same thing. It's always nice to read things that are (a) not the "side's" common wisdom and also not (b) simply an inversion of it. You and Somerby are who I trust most, even when I disagree.

    Parent

    Another Bush Screw Up (none / 0) (#4)
    by samtaylor2 on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 06:28:38 PM EST
    The lack of consistent foreign "policy" (or lack there of since there is not consitent message) has led to states either acting in ways we don't want (rushing to build or reconstitute nuclear weapon programs) or thinking there is support when there isn't any.  

    This is the problem with a McCain presidency.  He has endorsed this type of hapazard foreign policy, which will only continue to lead this world into chaos.  

    Obama has no foreign policy (none / 0) (#27)
    by pie on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 07:03:03 PM EST
    experience.

    Other than his "trip."

    Parent

    Given McCain's mumblings (5.00 / 1) (#37)
    by litigatormom on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 07:17:38 PM EST
    about confronting Russia militarily over the Georgia conflict makes being neophyte in foreign policy look good.

    In the course of his mumblings, btw, he mentioned that it now appeared that there was an effort afoot to depose the RUSSIAN president.

    Unless the Georgians just got a lot more musclepower, I think its their president who is on the verge of being deposed.

    Parent

    I trust that he will do the right thing (5.00 / 1) (#41)
    by samtaylor2 on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 07:27:03 PM EST
    His comments about negotiation, diplomacy lead me to trust him in his foreign dealings.  

    Obama understands the importance of consistency.  That is something that the McCain does not.  

    P.S.
    I get it you don't like Obama- However the comment was about McCain and Bush

    Parent

    Consistent stupidity is never good. (none / 0) (#46)
    by Christy1947 on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 07:41:58 PM EST
    It sounds like Bush made some mutual defense commitments of some kind to Saashkivili in exchange for Georgian troops in Iraq, including military exercises and trainers on the ground there, that he didn't bother to tell us about. Or get approved by the Senate so we would have the slightest idea what it was that somebody else was relying on our doing if he picked a fight with the eight hundred pound gorilla next door by attacking a town where they were present as internationally recognized peace keepers. And then his highly whatever Secretary of State was not on top of the situation, and she's supposed to be a Russia expert. How did she miss this one and let him find out about it when he was  on the beach with the  womens' beach volleyball team at the Olympics.Sheesh. Georgia is NOT a member of NATO or the EU, but apparently the political leadership thought the US would send in troops to help him. How in hell did that happen?

    Parent
    Good source of information. From CK that is... (none / 0) (#5)
    by Addison on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 06:29:19 PM EST
    I don't necessarily like GG's too-obvious, non-stop focus on the American side of this (especially after numerous evasive answers from CK, where he sought to move the discussion toward less boilerplate Salon material) over a more detailed interview about the domestic situation (which, as I said, CK kept trying to get back to). But in spite of the annoying interviewer this is a really good interview because of CK's knowledgeable, empathetic, and even-handed answers.

    This is noteworthy:

    From the US perspective, this is of course an illegal operation, it wasn't sanctioned by the United Nations, it doesn't fall under any kind of UN Security Council mandate, but so far, in fact the Russians have exercised a degree of restraint - that is to say, you haven't see, at least as of this morning, bombing of major Georgian cities. A few pieces of munitions seem to have gone astray, the city of Gori was hit...

    If you begin to see Russian troops moving farther into Georgia proper, if you begin to see large-scale attacks on Tbilisi, the Georgian capital, then we are in a new stage of this conflict, and then it really does look like Russia's trying to do something other than go back to the status quo and protect South Ossetians and Abkhaz.

    Unless today's news is wrong, Russia has indeed gone further than a few stray munitions in Gori.

    Today's news (none / 0) (#10)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 06:38:00 PM EST
    has been pretty inaccurate so far.

    But let's assume Russia is doing that. Now what?

    Parent

    A friend's son (5.00 / 1) (#16)
    by Jjc2008 on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 06:47:26 PM EST
    just got out of Georgia this weekend.  He works for a international pr company and was working with the president of Georgia and his people this past week.  It was pretty scary and the mood in the city was that the Russians were heading for the capital.  My friend was so scared she called the American Embassy.  They had plans for an envoy evacuation "when they deemed it necessary."  Luckily my friend's son had a friend who was able to get him a airline ticket through friends in Vienna.

    Sadly, thanks to W, regardless of who is right or wrong on this, the USA has no moral ground to be criticizing any "invasion"; and we have no military to do anything even if we had the moral ground.

    Parent

    Has happened also (none / 0) (#30)
    by pie on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 07:05:49 PM EST
    during the Olympics media blitz.

    Worst Ever Administration.

    Oil.

    Parent

    Right... (5.00 / 1) (#17)
    by Addison on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 06:49:06 PM EST
    ...I think the fog of war (or, more bluntly, operational lies) have made breaking news relatively unreliable. I don't really think that Gori getting taken over is a small enough lie to get way with for long, however, given that it's on the main highway between Tbilisi and the Black Sea/Batumi. We'll see.

    Aside from the fog of war, even though I'm relatively on the side of Georgia here, the idiocy of pairing -- in a news headline -- dead civilians in South Ossetia and the Russian attack (things like, "Thousands killed in S. Ossetia -- Russian continues attacks") is mind-blowingly deceptive. It's propaganda. And it's as annoying as anti-Georgian articles that pretend this all started last week when Georgia killed a few Russian hippies camping in the Caucusus.

    But right, what now? Nothing. There is nothing to be done. The only thing that would stop Russia would be a US attack on Russian forces in Georgia. And while that might potentially stop Russia in Georgia, it would certainly start them everywhere else.

    America has no realpolitik credibility on this topic, and this is a realpolitik issue. And, to make it worse (as you and others note), there are loud voices who think they matter and have credibility that are distorting the situation on both sides, which is adding stupidity to the powerlessness of American citizens.

    Parent

    US attack Russia? (5.00 / 1) (#20)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 06:53:19 PM EST
    You wrote some of the most frightening words written in quite some time.

    Parent
    Yes I did... (5.00 / 1) (#23)
    by Addison on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 06:55:57 PM EST
    ...and then I, myself, stated how frightening that response would be by noting that Russia would then start EVERYWHERE. Undesirable. Unthinkable. Unwanted.

    Parent
    We have no options (5.00 / 2) (#29)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 07:05:39 PM EST
    Georgia needs to make its peace with Russia.

    That's all there is.

    The Bush Administration needs to tell Georgia this.

    Parent

    True... (none / 0) (#36)
    by Addison on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 07:17:00 PM EST
    I agree. Unless peace can only be bought via Russia taking over Georgia. In which case I think the other option is that Georgia settles in for yet another nation-leveling conflict. But without any expectation of salvation on eagle's wings swooping into save them. If that happened Georgia could only hope for a wholesale revolt of the former Soviet satellite states against all Russian influence. And given the unlikeliness of that Georgia would be a hollowed out dictatorial wasteland for years.

    Certainly UN resolutions, EU resolutions, or the opinion editorials of US newspapers would save them. And I say that as a person who thinks Russian must be stopped, it's just that I realize they can't be, and that's because of the US's very real choices with very real consequences. So.

    Obviously peace with Russia under any price would result in Georgia being preserved (under that still unlikely Russian takeover scenario). Whereas war with Russia would result in unilateral destruction. But things get illogical and suicidally irrational when people see chains meant for them coming in by the truckload, so who knows what choice would be made.

    Hopefully it doesn't get to that.

    Parent

    Surely, you are being sarcastic here (none / 0) (#43)
    by Grace on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 07:30:52 PM EST
    Certainly UN resolutions, EU resolutions, or the opinion editorials of US newspapers would save them.

    Like UN resolutions, EU resolutions and opinion editorials in newspapers have solved the situation between Israel and the Palestinians?  

    Parent

    Yes... (none / 0) (#47)
    by Addison on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 07:42:54 PM EST
    ...in fact I was being sarcastic.

    Parent
    On Democracy Now! tonight (none / 0) (#19)
    by Makarov on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 06:52:17 PM EST
    they did a long segment on the conflict. Apparently, Russia has moved a couple mobile intermediate range missiles into South Ossetia. These could be equipped with either conventional (in which case they are less of a threat than conventional aerial bombing) or tactical nuclear warheads.

    The guest on the show, Ret. Col. Sam Gardiner theorized they want the US and NATO to believe that Russia is prepared to use tactical nukes in response to conventional air strikes.

    Apparently (none / 0) (#24)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 06:56:01 PM EST
    Apparent to whom?

    Parent
    Sounds like sensationalism... (none / 0) (#25)
    by Addison on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 06:58:11 PM EST
    ...my Nissan could be fitted with a nuclear device, too. Putin's a smart guy. Deploying nuclear weapons over Georgia would not be smart.


    Parent
    Ah madness (none / 0) (#49)
    by Dadler on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 08:17:14 PM EST
    What's really amazing to me is how, with all our freedom and supposed brains, we haven't even figured out HOW to talk to these other nations whose systems we tend to despise.  Humility is the key, and we have none.  Not an ounce.  If we once started a conversation with Russia, or China, or Iran by saying "Here's how we, the USA have fallen short, here is how were have f*cked up, and here is how we think you have and what we both need to do to get better..."  Not that miracles would occur overnight, not that nukes would disappear, or rainbows burst out in the sky, but at least we would evidence a certain type of intelligence that spy agencies, snoops, drones, whatever, can never substitute for.  And we would be showing the world the side of a superpower NEVER seen before.  The self-critical one, not waiting fifty years to apologize for something that needs to be acknowledge yesterday.

    Peace to all, goodwill toward women.

    Just a random thought in this sh*tty time.

    Parent

    Bush proposed a humble foreign policy... (none / 0) (#53)
    by Addison on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 08:48:40 PM EST
    ...not a weak one. But a humble one.

    If only.

    Parent

    Cheney has said we can't just sit by (none / 0) (#51)
    by weltec2 on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 08:41:45 PM EST
    and do nothing and Bush has just demanded that Russia withdraw their troops. I'm wondering if these crazy hawks think entering Georgia would help them get out of Iraq with out military confrontation with Russia.

    Options (none / 0) (#75)
    by lousy1 on Tue Aug 12, 2008 at 11:41:33 AM EST
    There are a number of Military options available shot of direct US intervention. Remember Afganistan?

    BO Rodney King moment is a platitude not a policy.


    Parent

    Timeline as I understand it (none / 0) (#52)
    by D Jessup on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 08:43:28 PM EST
    The United States has been building up and training the Georgian military since they joined our coalition in Iraq.

    We have been pressuring NATO to invite Georgia as a member, but NATO European partners have refused becuase of the uncertainies in South Ossetia and Abkhazia and because of President Saakashvili suppression of opposition rallies.

    On July 15th 1000 U.S. troops began a training exercies named  "Immediate Response 2008" in Georgia supossibly to train troops for Iraq despite a growing tension between Georgia and Russia.  The exercises lasted 2 weeks or until about Aug.  1.

    On Aug. 8  while both Bush and Putin were in China for the Olympics, Russia warned NATO and the EU that Georgia was preparing for War.  There had been skirmishes between fighters in South Ossetia and Georgia for several days prior to this warning.  EU diplomat Javier Solana telephoned President Saakashvili about the allegation, Saakashvili assured him that he wanted a cease fire.  That evening Georgia attacked South Ossetia and destroyed the capital Tskhinvali and killed between 1000 to 2000 civilians.

    Now the Neocons want us to believe that everything is Russia fault and we should get ready for another war, because they are part of the our "Coalition of the Willing".  My initial thought is how dumb do they think we are, but after reading comments and MSM headlines, I think they do know how dumb we are.


    That would be the Russian side (none / 0) (#65)
    by RalphB on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 11:27:06 PM EST
    of the argument all right.  Now, if we combine it with the other and subtract 99%, we'll have our fact level about right.


    Parent
    Is it just the Russian side? Links? T/U (none / 0) (#67)
    by jawbone on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 11:56:24 PM EST
    Your comment has some info I was unaware of--I didn't know Russia had warned the EU of Georgia preparing for war. And Bush had no idea? Or what?

    Parent
    Just a reminder that anitwar.com has nicely (none / 0) (#69)
    by jawbone on Tue Aug 12, 2008 at 12:24:07 AM EST
    organized aggregations of articles on all war areas, some on peace, and lots of stuff on Georgia-Ossetia.

    I find myself wondering if BushCo is behind Georgia's president's actions against Ossetia--get some "creative chaos" going close to Russia?

    Cheney, et al, are not so hot on peacemaking, but do know how to whack hornets' nests.  As long as they're far enough away to not get stung.

    BushCo foreign policy sometimes seems like organized chaos.

    What a mess.

    Parent

    Cheney's words are particularly (none / 0) (#54)
    by weltec2 on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 08:48:59 PM EST
    threatening. See here and here.

    Uh, is the (none / 0) (#66)
    by RalphB on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 11:30:59 PM EST
    6th Fleet headed for the Black Sea yet?  :-)

    Parent
    What did Condi promise? (none / 0) (#58)
    by wasabi on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 09:31:57 PM EST
    Just what did Condi promise on her visit to Tbilisi on July 10th?

    "TBILISI (Reuters) - Russia blamed Georgia for a surge of violence in two breakaway regions on Wednesday as U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice headed to the tiny Caucasus mountain state with a message of support."

    Only seven years? (none / 0) (#59)
    by Abdul Abulbul Amir on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 09:45:11 PM EST
    Then, Wyatt continued to state as fact certain that Putin had been planning this invasion for seven years. Proof?

    Militaries plan for just about everything all the time.  It would be a suprise if it were only seven years.  However, the fact that military planners are making plans for just about every possibility does not mean that there is any intention of carrying out any of those plans.  Perhaps Putin has read "The Grave of the Hundred Head."

    The last answer to the last (none / 0) (#61)
    by Maryb2004 on Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 10:06:29 PM EST
    question, especially the last two paragraphs, should be read by everyone.  In a way, it summarizes everything important about our foreign policy - what's wrong with it, why most Americans simply could not understand what a disaster it was (some still don't) and why even our allies won't trust us.

    Thanks for pointing it out.

    I have a question (none / 0) (#74)
    by Florida Resident on Tue Aug 12, 2008 at 06:56:06 AM EST
    When and who made the decision of using Russian troops as peacekeeping forces in South Ossetia?