The Polls- 9/17
Ras has no change, 48-47 McCain. DKos/R2000 has no change, 48-44 (but overnight sampling had Obama by 5. Ras does not report his overnights.
Two bits of data make me think Ras is haviong some trouble with his polling. First he says that in his poll, McCain leads on the economy over Obama by 49-45 (Hotline has Obama up 20 on the economy). There is no other poll that has anything close to that result. The second bit of data is translating how McCain could lead on the economy and still only have a 1 point lead. This result seems implausible to me. Remember Ras uses a secret LV model, this is not an RV poll.
The R2000 poll has an interesting geographic point - Obama leads everywhere but the South, where McCain leads by 18 points. Obama leads by 23 in the Northeast (Pennsylvania?), by 8 in the West (the West Coast accounts for that no doubt - the Mountain West looks like a tie at best for Obama now) and by 9 in the Midwest (take your guess on that, Illinois will be big for Obama, but how is he doing in the other states.)
By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only
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