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Ras Post -Convention Poll: McCain By 1

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 08:53:04 AM EST
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Ras' first full post GOP convention poll is out:

In the first national polling results based entirely on interviews conducted after the Republican National Convention, McCain attracts 47% of the vote while Obama earns 46%. When "leaners" are included, it’s McCain 48% and Obama 47%.

Ras weights his polls by party ID so he takes out the "voter enthusiasm" variable that Gallup LV polls are plagued with (Gallup polls swing as wildly as any you will find.) McCain by 1 seems about right to me right now. By midweek, Obama will push in front narrowly imo.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

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    Ras Post -Convention Poll: McCain By 1 | 55 comments (55 topical)

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    Obama cannot win a close election here (5.00 / 1) (#1)
    by Dadler on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 08:57:39 AM EST
    Too much fraud will go McCain's way, too much computer code will drop or flip votes, too many will be dropped from the rolls.  Obama better wake up and quickly, and start being a loud, passionate, take no prisoners voice.  Or it is over.  

    I agree, too bad Obama didn't (5.00 / 3) (#2)
    by nulee on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 09:14:00 AM EST
    take BTD's advice and pick HRC as VP, so that it would not be so close.  I cannot help but conclude that Obama did not have the interests of the party in mind, just his own struggle with Clinton.  In the end, those of us on the left suffer.

    Parent
    Can Obama's failure to pick Hillary (5.00 / 6) (#12)
    by Roz on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 09:50:43 AM EST
    for his VP be fairly considered a major failure in judgment and open his decision-making to criticism?

    Certainly the media and the pundits were holding McCain's judgment to account regarding his "first major decision."

    If you agree that Obama has unnecessarily put the election at risk by refusing to pick Hillary Clinton, are you willing to question his "judgment." What does it say about his decision-making? Should voters be giving Obama a passing grade for judgment (since he doesn't have the experience), after screwing up his first big decision?

    I direct this question to BTD, Jeralyn, and other Obama supporters who insist Obama's judgment is superior and his main qualification for the presidency.

    Parent

    imo yes (5.00 / 2) (#16)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 09:58:07 AM EST
    If he loses the election, that decision will be the reason.

    Parent
    Stupid Decision (5.00 / 5) (#22)
    by WS on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 10:08:47 AM EST
    He spent all week teasing the media and the public about his VP decision only to find out that its Biden.  Had it been Clinton, the rally at Springfield would have been a lot more meaningful.  

    And if he had picked Hillary, McCain might not have picked Palin as his VP.  

    Obama needlessly endangered his electoral prospects with his VP pick.

    Parent

    I've not certain the people here (4.00 / 1) (#33)
    by oculus on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 10:33:38 AM EST
    who you term "Obama-supporters" are supporting him because they've concluded he has superior judgment.  What I read is:  "media-darling," and his speech against invading Iraq, and not a dime's worth of difference on issues (X cares about).  

    Parent
    Judgment? (none / 0) (#19)
    by davnee on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 10:03:51 AM EST
    Have any of the major Obama supporters here really pointed to his judgment as a major qualification for the presidency?  That he holds (especially comparatively) the correct issue positions and can be trusted (more or less) to promote them in office, yes.  But I don't recall anyone here cheerleading for Obama because he had such terrific judgment.  Maybe I'm wrong.

    Parent
    Saw Rick Davis this weekend.... (5.00 / 2) (#28)
    by jeffhas on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 10:23:59 AM EST
    Saying basically that Obama puts Obama first, while McCain puts country first.

    He stated they have noticed this throughout the primaries and GE, and that he doesn't even put party first.

    I thought it was quite an alarming attack point that no one else from McCain's camp has even brought up... but it made all the bells and whistles go off in my head.

    Parent

    Palin alluded (5.00 / 3) (#39)
    by frenly on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 11:13:43 AM EST
    to this impression of Obama in her speech when she said that the presidency was not supposed to be a journey of self discovery.  As much as it displeases me to say it, Obama's campaign does seem to be a lot about him and not really about the country.  His history of running for higher office (after he himself said he wasn't experienced enough) and the lack of any significant legislation that he has shepherded or any significant work on his committee, his perceived weakness in not picking Clinton and his pre-convention Europe tour... none of these kill it by themselves, but added together they don't paint a flattering picture of the candidate as being about much except self promotion.  Maybe it isn't true.

    Say what you will about McCain, he doesn't seem particularly self promoting, and his selection of Palin certainly means he isn't a spotlight hog.

    Parent

    Repub BS (1.00 / 1) (#46)
    by IndiDemGirl on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 11:32:59 AM EST
    Picking Palin was putting the country first?  That was putting McCain first.

    Parent
    Voters have choice (none / 0) (#42)
    by Rashomon66 on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 11:24:12 AM EST
    You have an option to vote, you know. So if you decide to vote for McCain that's fine - but you [and everyone] still has a choice. In other words: Don't blame Obama if he loses. Blame the voters.

    Parent
    McCain won't need fraud (none / 0) (#25)
    by Prabhata on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 10:14:03 AM EST
    He'll win the election by a good margin.

    Parent
    Hard to (none / 0) (#38)
    by Wile ECoyote on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 11:03:11 AM EST
    be passionate when you can only operate off of scripts and teleprompters.

    Parent
    I doubt Obama will lead ... (5.00 / 5) (#3)
    by Robot Porter on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 09:14:18 AM EST
    in any polls this week.  But either way the polls are likely to be within the margin of error right up till election day with leads switching back and forth.  

    Obama's campaign should operate under that assumption.  If things go better.  Great.  But they shouldn't assume they will.

    And we must remember that a lot of the trouble Obama finds himself is not only the McCain's VP pick and the Republican convention.  But the bad way he handled his campaign during the summer.

    The race shouldn't have been tied going into the Dem convention.  So Obama isn't merely fighting against current trendlines, but trendlines that existed prior to the conventions.

    If (5.00 / 6) (#4)
    by Ga6thDem on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 09:15:34 AM EST
    Obama doesn't do something "bold" then there's no way he's going to be ahead imo.

    Today the headlines on Yahoo are that he is backing off of his tax plan. It would be nice if he could stick with something instead of constantly changing positions and hemming and hawing.

    Yes, now is not the time .. (5.00 / 6) (#8)
    by Robot Porter on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 09:26:29 AM EST
    to play a game of realpolitik.

    It makes it difficult to support him.  You try to defend his policies, then the next day he backs off from it.

    How hard is to say:

    "My tax policy will fix the economy."

    Or:

    "The surge didn't work.  We're still in a stalemate in Iraq."  

    Period. No equivocation.  No labored explanations.

    Parent

    Change assumption (5.00 / 4) (#6)
    by koshembos on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 09:21:22 AM EST
    The original assumptions and goals of Obama have been shown to be to be wrong and unattainable. Going after the Evangelical vote, e.g. Saddleback church, seems now ridiculous. Postpartnership with Republicans always was a moronic idea. Now, after the Republican convention it's out the window.

    Obama better concentrate on claiming that McCain, with 90% Bush vote, is responsible for the economic troubles.

    If Obama can secure Bill Clinton's help he better do it in a hurry. As you looks at it now, he is running an inept, low power campaign. He needs someone to get to PA, OH, WI and MN voters. Otherwise he'll lose in a landslide.

    He should rely heavily on Hillary, Wes Clark and people he tried to shun with disastrous effects.

    Obama loses Women (5.00 / 3) (#7)
    by fercryinoutloud on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 09:22:36 AM EST
    According to the Ras poll:

    Obama leads by three among women. On Tuesday, when Obama's lead peaked, he had a fourteen point advantage among women.

    And just for the sake of accuracy the Gallup tracking polls in which McCain led by tree as of yesterday polls registered voters.


    PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update shows John McCain moving ahead of Barack Obama, 48% to 45%, when registered voters are asked for whom they would vote if the presidential election were held today.

    Interestingly, Chris Bowers who lives and breaths polls estimates that McCain as of yesterdays polling was up by 7 as Gallup is a rolling poll so a lead of three would have required a last day polling of about 7.

    USA Today/Gallup: 50-46 McCain (none / 0) (#34)
    by fercryinoutloud on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 10:36:18 AM EST
    McCain hits the 50% threshold. 50 to 46 Registered voters. 54% to 44% Likely voters.

    September 8, 2008
    The gap between registered voters and likely voters has once again enlarged in the McCain-Palin ticket's favor in this poll. While the Republican ticket leads by 50% to 46% among registered voters, that lead stretches to a 54% to 44% lead among those Gallup sees as most likely to actually turn out and vote.

    I'll let the USA Today/Gallup numbers speak for themselves.

    A quick comment on my previous post showing Obama losing women voters. He lost 11% out of a 14% lead he held. No doubt that Palin has hurt him in that area. And people are suggesting to ignore Palin?

    But more interesting is I find it hard to believe that those loses by Obama, or better put, gains by McCain were all 'base women voters. There has to be some Independent women, probably undecideds, who moved to McCain and I would not be surprised if his gains also included Hillary Moderates who moved to McCain. It would be interesting to see the internals posted today by someone with access. I'll keep my eye on OpenLeft and a few others who have purchased access.

    Parent

    I don't think women who supported (5.00 / 2) (#37)
    by oculus on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 10:41:27 AM EST
    HIllary Clinton would even consider voting for McCain, except for the relentless Palin-bashing. Yes, of course, she is subject to fair criticism, but, in my view, much of it is not fairly-presented and has extra helpings of bashing included.  

    Parent
    I think (none / 0) (#51)
    by MichaelGale on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 12:39:47 PM EST
    women will support Palin and a larger share of Democratic women than you think.

    The contrast of Democratic policies v Palin's is black and white and while no woman would support her policies. they will vote for her out of revenge and certainly because she is a female. Sounds unbelievable, I know, but many women are very angry at the Democratic party and see this as a chance to let them know that women matter.

    I won't be in that Palin column but I plan to vote down ticket Democrat.

    Parent

    The current polls support that McCain (5.00 / 1) (#54)
    by tootired on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 01:25:36 PM EST
    is picking up some new support from women. The motive for Democratic women to stay home and not vote or to leave the top of the ticket blank may be revenge or punishment, but for those women crossing over to vote for McCain, it's identity politics. For them, it's time for a woman to break this glass ceiling, and this one will do. If Obama is elected, they don't see a woman in the White House anytime soon, and they're tired of waiting. To chalk it up to revenge misses the point completely. We don't find fault with blacks who are voting for Obama because he's black, and we should extend the same understanding to these women. They have waited a long time to vote for "someone who looks like them". For some of them it is the second try.

    Parent
    I completely agree (none / 0) (#55)
    by MichaelGale on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 05:26:22 PM EST
    that women will vote for a woman in re to them being tired of waiting and that is fine by me.

    I also know that women are angry at the Democratic Party.

    Parent

    Anecdotal only, but no one I (none / 0) (#52)
    by oculus on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 12:55:01 PM EST
    have talked to plans to vote for Palin.  Although, I must admit, the majority of my acquaintances strongly supported Obama from the outset.  But the strong Clinton supporters I know will not vote for Palin, primarily due to her opposition to a woman's right to choose, but also because they have concluded she lacks the experience they wish she had in light of McCain's age and history of malignant melanoma.

    Parent
    NOt many I know either (none / 0) (#56)
    by MichaelGale on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:39:22 PM EST
    but I read this article from somewhere in PA and they interviewed several woman who had come from other states to see and hear Palin. They brought their daughters and most claimed to be Independent, some Democrats. There were Democrats who stated they would vote for her for obvious reasons, choice, experience but the majority stated they would and were thrilled to see a woman on the ticket.  Seems that many had been paying attention to the primary campaign. They also identified with her; raising children, having to work, PTA, 'family values'.

    I peruse many local papers nationwide and those PTA working moms identify with her.  They are younger, for many, abortion is not an issue as they want families (not every woman focuses on choice) and they see her as tough and strong.

    Parent

    The problem with Obama (5.00 / 5) (#18)
    by Prabhata on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 10:02:41 AM EST
    As a longtime supporter of Democrat candidates I don't believe Obama can fix his poll numbers.  Obama, like Kerry, do not inspire confidence that he is up to the task.  I voted for Kerry despite his equivocation, but with Obama, the equivocation is compounded with his lack of record. I gave Kerry the benefit of doubt, but I won't do the same with Obama.  His "change, hope, unity" message never sold very well to those who look at the candidate, at the gut level.  Obama has never demonstrated to hold deep convictions about anything, and no amount of advertisement or tough talk will fix the problem because the equivocation is embedded in the candidate and it always comes through when he answers questions.

    Obama 3.0 (5.00 / 3) (#27)
    by AlSmith on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 10:18:53 AM EST

    I think it is close to time for Obama 3.0. I agree that Obama cannot fix his poll numbers with his current plan. He already has about the maximum number of people who will be willing to vote for him because he is either a Democrat or because of Hope/Change.

    Obama 2.0 where he is angry that people criticize him will not get any new votes.

    Its time for Obama 3.0 where he says actual specific things that he will do so that people will want to vote for him.

    In general getting people to vote against the other guy is much more effective than getting people to vote for you. But that doesnt mean that you can avoid reasons for people to vote for you. If he pins all of his hope on an "anti" vote its really a spin of the wheel.

    He will really need something juicy to come out in order to win.

    Parent

    Something juicy (none / 0) (#48)
    by djork on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 11:44:58 AM EST
    It's this problem that makes me think back to the Pennsylvania primary in which Obama massively outspent Hillary and still suffered a humiliating defeat. Presumably if he had anything juicy that would have been the ideal time to roll it out as he was trying to wrap up the nomination. But he has basically been treading water ever since February while the stakes and the pressure keep building up around him.

    Parent
    So the Obama campaign has (5.00 / 2) (#24)
    by kenosharick on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 10:13:18 AM EST
    decided to face reality and not focus huge amounts of time/money/energy on Georgia, North Carolina, ect? Just as the Clinton campaign and her supporters have long pointed out, it will come down to Ohio, Penn,Fla, and a few other swing states- states she would have won easily.

    Republican enthusiasm jumps (5.00 / 1) (#29)
    by Prabhata on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 10:26:55 AM EST
    That may impact Rasmussen in the near future.
    Gallup
    Does anyone think Obama will perform well (5.00 / 3) (#30)
    by jeffhas on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 10:29:51 AM EST
    during the debates?

    I'm not saying McCain is any better necessarily, I'm really actually asking for opinions.

    It looks like I 'could' see a train wreck ahead, but McCain maybe too... Obama never performed well to me against Hillary, but the turning point in her campaign seems to have been the Illegal Alien ID question (and the eerie way in which everyone surrounded her a la Caesar).

    Just askin'

    If the candidates' convention speeches (5.00 / 1) (#36)
    by oculus on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 10:37:41 AM EST
    are any guide, I anticipate the Obama/McCain debates will be long-winded and not all that informative.  

    Parent
    Rasmussen shows States trending to McCain (5.00 / 3) (#35)
    by Fen on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 10:37:02 AM EST
    Following Rasmussen shifts in the EC vote, the obvious problem is that every state is leaning AWAY from Obama. Look at the trends:

    /begin Rasmussen

    "The biggest changes came in Ohio, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Colorado and Oregon.

    Ohio: moved from Toss-up to Leans Republican  

    North Carolina: moved from Leans Republican to Likely Republican.  

    Wisconsin: moved from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic.

    Colorado: moved from Leans Democratic to Toss-Up

    Oregon: moved from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic.

    South Dakota: moved from Leans Republican to Likely Republican

    Connecticut: moved from Safely Democratic to Likely Democratic

    Louisiana: moved from Likely Republican to Safely Republican

    Maine: moved from Safely Democratic to Likely Democratic

    Tennessee: moved from Likely Republican to Safely Republican.

    /ends

    If this trend maintains, Obama will be hemorrhaging EC votes by Novemeber.

    Hotline/Diageo (5.00 / 1) (#40)
    by WS on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 11:16:06 AM EST
    RCP has the Hotline/Diageo Tracking poll at a tie 44-44.

    Hotline/Diageo

    CNN/Opinion Research (none / 0) (#41)
    by WS on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 11:22:08 AM EST
    Hearing the CNN/Opinion Research poll is also a tie at 48-48.  

    Parent
    CNN poll (none / 0) (#43)
    by WS on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 11:26:28 AM EST
    Pollster has the CNN/Opinion Research Poll

    CNN/Opinion Research via Pollster

    Parent

    Obama can recover from that (none / 0) (#45)
    by andgarden on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 11:29:45 AM EST
    and I expect he will.

    Parent
    All this (3.00 / 2) (#26)
    by thentro on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 10:14:55 AM EST
    I tend to agree with BTD that things will go back to a +2/3 Obama in a week after things are done bouncing, but it is amazing to think that all that has transpired over the past 2 weeks could result in nothing changing.

    Sometimes I realize just how much I don't understand politics.

    I really thought that Obama (none / 0) (#9)
    by andgarden on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 09:38:28 AM EST
    would announce something big on Friday morning.

    I hope he's got something left up his sleeve.

    Silly ... (none / 0) (#14)
    by Robot Porter on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 09:52:52 AM EST
    would look panicky.

    Just stick to the message on economy, jobs and healthcare.

    If I did anything, I'd continue to tweak the stump speech so important information appears in local and network news coverage.  Namely policy specifics.

    Parent

    Good analysis (none / 0) (#10)
    by Abbey on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 09:43:03 AM EST
    I suspect the national horse race will soon be back to where it was pre-convention.

    However, it would behoove Obama supporters to remember he is not conducting a national campaign.  Rather, he's focusing on about 18 critical states, and areas within those states that have the most potential.

    The parameters of the election are such that Obama is only defending one or two blue states, while McCain has to defend about 13 red states that are in play.  

    I'm sorry, but this is never credible (5.00 / 5) (#11)
    by andgarden on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 09:46:09 AM EST
    If you lose the national popular vote by more than a point or two, you are pretty much guaranteed to lose in the Electoral College too.

    Don't point to state polls: they haven't been updated since before the conventions.

    Parent

    Thank you for saying that..... (5.00 / 4) (#13)
    by Maria Garcia on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 09:52:08 AM EST
    ...this week made me realize more than anything else that Obama must win the election. But it really doesn't help to simply reassure ourselves that all is well or that the Obama campaign can do no wrong. There is time, but there is also a lot of work to be done.

    Parent
    yes, the is past week has gotten to (5.00 / 2) (#17)
    by sancho on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 09:58:51 AM EST
    me too, maria. it reminded me why i was so depressed and disgusted when obama was winning the caucuses and losing the really important primaries againt an outstanding ge candidate. i hope he can he still win it (and want to believe BTD) but nothing about his campaign thus far has been promising. and as the posters say above, he does not stick to his positions. how can you win as a dem flip-flopping on everything while pretending to be the republicans' friends? howard dean and nancy pelosi wont be able to rig the GE so this time it is up to obama. aaaargh.

    Parent
    The problem was that it was like shouting ... (5.00 / 3) (#20)
    by Robot Porter on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 10:07:00 AM EST
    in a wind tunnel in the primaries about this.

    I remember trying to explain to a usually savvy friend how Obama couldn't win Idado in the GE.

    And that was always the kind of argument you'd get when you talked about Obama's weakness in Ohio.

    Somehow, the "I told you so" statements aren't as satisfying as I thought they might be.

    Parent

    Pelosi, Dean and company (5.00 / 3) (#23)
    by Prabhata on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 10:11:41 AM EST
    Will reap the loss of the WH.  That loss will hang around Pelosi neck and may destroy her political career.

    Parent
    Please stop teasing me... (5.00 / 2) (#32)
    by jeffhas on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 10:33:13 AM EST
    It's like you're waving a delicious piece of candy right in front of my sweet tooth.

    Parent
    New state polls AFTER both primaries (5.00 / 2) (#15)
    by TimNCGuy on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 09:56:13 AM EST
    from the swing states are what we really need to see.

    And, I'm not convinced by the "focusing on specific areas within states" argument either.  Obama did that during the primaries and it was effective because it allowed him to pick up delegates and keep the delegate race close in states like PA and OH.  But, he still lost the popular votes in those states and will gain nothing for it in the electoral college.

    And, just a question.  Does anyone know which 18 states are alwyas being referred to?

    Parent

    The 18 states are now inoperative (5.00 / 1) (#21)
    by Prabhata on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 10:07:43 AM EST
    Obama's campaign will be focused in just few states.

    Parent
    Moot now (none / 0) (#31)
    by IndiDemGirl on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 10:31:49 AM EST
    because one of the 19 was Alaska and that is gone now due to the Palin pick.  I believe that Georgia is off the table now also.

    That leaves 16 :  NH, VA, NC, FL, PA, OH, IN, MI, WI, IA, MO, CO, NM, NV, MT, and ND.

    I recently read an article that the exapnded map was causing McCain to spend money in traditionally red states.  He did buy ad time in NC, VA, and IN, etc.

    Parent

    One of the 18... (none / 0) (#44)
    by IndiDemGirl on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 11:28:10 AM EST


    Parent
    5 new state polls @6 p.m. (none / 0) (#53)
    by Dawn Davenport on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 01:03:47 PM EST
    Rasmussen's going to release five new state polls at 6 p.m. Eastern on FoxNews tonight; no mention of which states those are.

    Parent
    Many days left (none / 0) (#47)
    by Rashomon66 on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 11:37:34 AM EST
    I am reading a lot of blame here on Obama. I am also reading how a lot here are giving up in defeat. Folks, we have 57 days. A lot can happen. McCain's Palin pick turns out to be smart because a lot of American's DO vote based on cult of personality. Yes, Palin is as much a personality as Obama. Her speech was much more about her than Obama's was about him. He talked issues. But for some reason some think he is still just all ego. Palin talked about herself and had very little to say about issues. But for some she is so likable and ego-less because she comes across like an 'average' American. Why voters want an 'average' American running the country is beyond me. It fits the Frank Capra stereotype of no experience means innocence and down-to-earth and good for the country.

    The problem wasn't Obama's speech (1.00 / 0) (#49)
    by haner on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 12:01:04 PM EST
    It was the hype and the setting. I felt anticlimatic after Obama's speech because of the football field, and the smattering of Beijing Olympic style fireworks at the end reinforced that.  What the heck were they thinking?  Surely they realized that millions of Americans had just seen the Beijing Olympics and would have immediately linked the sad display of fireworks to China's extravaganza?

    Parent
    McCain didn't put (none / 0) (#50)
    by IndiDemGirl on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 12:25:40 PM EST
    his country first when picking Palin.  He wanted to pick Joe or Ridge, but the base of his party didn't like that -- so he coddled them with the Palin pick.  Why didn't you reply instead of giving me a "1."  

    Parent
    Ras Post -Convention Poll: McCain By 1 | 55 comments (55 topical)

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