I certainly look at this data with a jaundiced eye, not the least reason being I like thinking I know what I am talking about.

But there is nothing in the data supporting my view.

I think it's worth considering that taking comfort in a .2% drop, when the number that precedes it is 16, is a bit like whistling past the graveyard.

Anything positive is, of course, a good thing, and I hope it continues, but as long as jobs are being shed, then we haven't hit bottom, have we?  So the worst can't be over, can it?

And economists cautioned that the unemployment rate had only declined because 400,000 people gave up their search for work and left the labor force. The White House and economic forecasters still expect unemployment to reach 10 percent or more before it begins to fall.

SNIP

Now, even if the economy begins growing again this summer -- as many economists expect it will -- laid-off workers are likely to be among the last to benefit. Businesses that slashed their work force and inventories over the last year to cope with the economic deterioration are likely to hire temporary workers or pay overtime wages before they begin fielding applications for new full-time workers.

That means hundreds of thousands more workers are likely to lose their jobs, perhaps well into next year. Many economists -- and President Obama -- have said they expect the unemployment rate to reach 10 percent before businesses begin hiring again.

September, October and November will really tell the tale.  If the rate can stay below double digits during this period that would be a good sign.

Despite "positive" news that the rate of unemployment slowed in July, the White House on Friday warned that more job losses are still expected.

White House press secretary Robert Gibbs said that the president is "pleased" that unemployment dipped to 9.4 percent, but that the administration is still only seeing signs that the economy is stabilizing and still expects unemployment to reach 10 percent this year.

"I think it's going to be a long time before we see genuine, sustained, positive job growth," Gibbs told reporters in his West Wing office.

Republicans on Friday blasted the Obama administration's stimulus efforts, noting that even though the rate dropped, there were almost 250,000 jobs lost.

"The president said his stimulus bill would keep unemployment from rising higher than 8 percent. It hasn't," said Michael Steele, chairman of the Republican National Committee. "Now he expects Americans to believe his trillion-dollar healthcare experiment will improve their healthcare? It won't. America simply can't afford more of the president's costly experiments."

But Gibbs said there is "no doubt that the Recovery Act has and is making a difference."

"We're moving in the right direction, but we still have more work to do," Gibbs said.

Gibbs hailed "the least bad jobs report we've had in a year" as "more evidence that we have pulled back from the edge and away from the brink of a depression."

So should we all hold our breath for an apology today?

Here is the clip.

The easing in the unemployment rate could have been the result of the labor force shrinking by 422,000 in July, far more than the 155,000 decline in June, suggesting jobless workers may have given up looking for new work.

The administration hasn't done a thing about job losses and has barely whispered the word "jobs" since Obama took office. It's a combination of not knowing what to do and not caring enough to find out. Look, I don't know what the answer is, either -- although personally I would have preferred seeing the TARP money spent on a modern-day version of the WPA and the CCC. But I also don't need to know: I wasn't the one who wanted the damn job of running for president. Obama did, despite all evidence that he wasn't up to the job.

So now what? Nothing in the economy can be fixed without job creation. Falsely propping up car sales and bleating about home prices and offering up half-baked "healthcare reform" that's a giant sweet sloppy kiss to the insurance industry -- NONE of these things are going to do anything to ease people's suffering. People need jobs, period. If Obama and his merry band of DINOs gave a damn about the people they bamboozled into voting for him, this is where they would train their efforts.

Wages and salaries, which drive recoveries in spending, fell 4.7 percent in the 12 months through June, the biggest drop since records began in 1960, according to Commerce Department figures released yesterday. The Obama administration's tax cuts, extended jobless benefits and a one-time Social Security bonus have helped mask the damage done by the worst employment slump since the Great Depression.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/08/wages-and-salaries-fell-47-most-on.html?ref=patri ck.net

The second quarter of 2009 saw leasing and sales conditions across the U.S. office market plummet at a rate unforeseen in previous analysis by CoStar Group, Inc. In particular, CoStar confirmed that the value of Class A office buildings has declined by 57% compared with prices paid at the peak of the market in 2007.

In addition, office-leasing activity is off 39% from year-ago levels and all but three U.S. office markets posted negative net absorption over the first two quarters of 2009.

http://www.costar.com/news/Article.aspx?id=0E934825CB5837A6F49194B86E2E6D61

it can take years for a worker's earnings to bounce back after a layoff, and that it can take even longer for a layoff during a recession. Economists, in fact, say income losses for workers who are let go in a recession can persist for as long as two decades, a depressing prognosis for the several-million people who have lost their jobs in the current recession.

"On average, most workers do not recover their old annual earnings," said Till von Wachter, an economics professor at Columbia University, who recently completed a working paper with two other economists that examined the long-term earnings of workers who lost their jobs in the recession of the early 1980s.

Long-term unemployment is also dangerous for the economy as a whole. One quarter of the long-term unemployed permanently leave the workforce, a recent study by the Congressional Budget Office found, producing increased loss of output in the economy. Long-term unemployment burdens social services, diminishes spending levels in the economy and drains overall savings. It can also affect unemployment among young, first-time job-seekers. "Long-term unemployment is debilitating for people trying to find jobs in the first place," says Professor James K. Galbraith of the University of Texas at Austin. The more long term unemployed there are already competing for jobs with long résumés, the harder it is for first timers with no work experience to get the job, thereby tossing them into the pool and sustaining the high rate.

Sorry about quoting Time... but several other articles support this oppinion.

I'm one of those long-term unemployed, tight fisted consumers that will need to get back to work. I have a degree and 12 years of experience in computer networking. I worked for the firm for 9 years. I will not be called back.. the midwest company is Chapter 11 and restructuring.

I was laid off with other "older" workers (we make more money so we got laid off) that will need to be retrained and work until we die.

The economy would have to grow like it did under Bill Clinton to get me back to work. (Read it on the Web but cannot find the source.)

The bigger concern is no longer job loss but from what industry will job creation be derived.  It took 46 months to return to peak employment last recession with job creation coming from credit fueled spend.  We don;t have that option now.

The stimulus will help with debt pay down and stabilization of sorts but this will be a long hard slog.  So as excited as i get about 247 (and i am very excited as a labor geek) i know that we have a double dip coming and a questionable recovery on the horizon.