BCS Championship Preview

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Off Topic
Posted on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 11:01:03 AM EST
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First, let me disclose my bias - a Florida Gator fan, I am firmly convinced that not only is the SEC the best football conference year after year, but that it is not even very close. Soooo, I'm picking Auburn tonight right? No. I think that Oregon is going to win the game easily and that this is one of the best betting propositions in some time. Let's look at the numbers - Auburn is a 1.5 point favorite (since I decided on Oregon, I shopped for the best line and have Oregon (+3) (15 units)). My view is that Jeff Sagarin has the most accurate computer rating system. Under the Sagarin system, Oregon is 7 points better than Auburn. More . .

In addition to the computer numbers, my eyeball test tells me Auburn is simply not as good as Oregon. There were at least 3 games I watched this year where Auburn was not the best team on the field (first South Carolina game, Alabama game and Clemson game.) Auburn's defense is weak, especially in the secondary. In short, this is a weak SEC champion (in fact Alabama was the most talented team in the league and simply underperformed. Saban had his worst coaching performance ever.)

By contrast, Oregon is a very strong PAC 10 champion, probably the best team the PAC 10 has produced since the USC teams from 2003-2005. I've watched Oregon a number of times and they are very good on both sides of the ball - with speed and great interior line play.

Oregon is simply the better team, and not by a little bit.

Also note that Oregon's speed of play on offense (number of play per game) will further negate Auburn's few defensive strengths (its outstanding defensive line.) While Auburn's first defensive line rotation is as good as anybody's, there is a marked dropoff after that. More plays mean less snaps where Nick Fairly is on the field.

Of course, anything can happen in one game, but the odds are strongly in Oregon's favor imo. Here is an opposing view. I note for the record that to uphold the argument, the writer makes this outlandish statement:

[I]t will not be asking too much for Auburn's defense to contain Oregon's offense since Oregon's offense is fairly one-dimensional and will not be able to effectively attack Auburn's defense where it is weakest; namely, against the pass.

Auburn may win the game, but not because Auburn's defense "contained" Oregon's offense. The over/under on this game is 73.

I am speaking for me only in this post as Jeralyn may be making a big play on Auburn tonight for all I know. (probably not.)

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BCS Championship Preview | 74 comments (74 topical)

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I would say, simply, (5.00 / 1) (#2)
by jeffinalabama on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 11:18:02 AM EST

that this is NOT a 15 unit game. Irrespective of which team you pick, 15 units is insane, IMO.

Too many 'known unknowns' and 'unknown unknowns.' I think your game line underemphasize Auburn's defensive experience from the year in the the SEC, as well as the supporting cast of down linemen and linebackers, and the ability Auburn has shown to adkust defensively in the second half. Not major adjustments, but 'just enough' to slow down or stop teams such as LSU, Alabama, and Arkansas.

The Tigers are weak in defensive secondary, but the tigers aren't a one trick pony offense. Newton's phenomenal season allows for a diversity announcers haven't been talking about-- it's an offense that doesn't need to be 'all Cam all the time,' his presence means the Ducks key on him at their peril.

If I bet sports, I'd bet the over. 73 points? no problem.

Fair line, but I wouldn't bet against the SEC.

But that's why games are played on the field.

WAR EAGLE!

War Eagle! (5.00 / 1) (#6)
by Militarytracy on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 11:21:43 AM EST

.....Pushes what is left of the family nest egg into the middle of the table....

Better odds than Wall Street unless you are Golden Sachs :)


Depends on how you define it (none / 0) (#11)
by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 11:27:30 AM EST

By your reasoning, there are no 15 unit games (and maybe you are right), but I had Oregon as my lock of the year against USC in the Coliseum and Turkana said it was not a 10 unit game or whatever I put on it.

Final score - Oregon by 23 or so.


Also (none / 0) (#15)
by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 11:29:56 AM EST

I am plus 20 units during the bowl season, though I am on a 2 game losing streak.


that makes a big difference (none / 0) (#24)
by jeffinalabama on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 11:35:31 AM EST

in laying down a 15 unit. If I were to suddenly bet 15 units on this game after not betting at all, that would be insane.

Worst possible outcome for you is +5 units for bowl games.


Not the way to think about it (none / 0) (#29)
by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 11:39:58 AM EST

Those 20 units are MY money.

This is in fact a separate 15 unit play.

I've already made the bet so there is no turning back, but I sincerely believe it is that strong a play.

I just do not believe Auburn is that good and I do believe Oregon is.

It's gambling of course, but it is my honest assessment of the 2 teams.

Believe me, if I was not betting on the game, and I have skipped this game before, I would be rooting SEC.

I always look at the money (none / 0) (#41)
by jeffinalabama on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 11:51:49 AM EST

as a fiction until it's physically in my hand. Until then, it's imaginary. Putting out a 15 unit? you're a sports better.

chips on the table are a fiction to me until I cash out... then they're real. I hope that statement makes sense.


: Sure (none / 0) (#43)
by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 11:55:09 AM EST

I settle each month.
But your story reminds me of the pre-Internet days when I would meet my bookie on the corner of a construction site in Manhattan once a week with a lot of cash changing hands in either direction.
A lot of honey bees (as Mario Puzo called them) or in today's parlance, Benjamins, to carry around.
I was young and stupid then, but I had a lot of fun.
Now I am old an stupid and have a lot less fun.

I did agree Auburn LSU was a 10 unit game. (none / 0) (#17)
by jeffinalabama on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 11:30:42 AM EST

Maybe 15 units exceeds my brain, I don't know...


You traitor (5.00 / 2) (#3)
by Militarytracy on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 11:19:15 AM EST

I have lost respect for you. I'm calling your mother too! As Joshua says, when we (the magical collective "we" of the War Eagle) are done with Oregon, they will need an Oregan transplant....so there.

: Heh (none / 0) (#5)
by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 11:21:40 AM EST

Nice line from Joshua.

And now, opposing views on the death (none / 0) (#1)
by oculus on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 11:08:20 AM EST

penalty.

Gutsy call. (none / 0) (#4)
by Buckeye on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 11:19:37 AM EST

I am one of those that think Auburn will win and it will be over by halftime. As we learned in the Rose Bowl last year (which I assumed we would lose), containing Oregon's offense is not as tough as it seems. Play tough in the middle (Auburn's D-line is good) and keep Oregon's QB and RBs from getting outside. Auburn is not a great defensive team by SEC standards, but the SEC is so packed with teams and talent (especially on D vs. the Pac 10) it is a little misleading. Auburn's O will have no problem scoring.

I hope you are right though, it would be nice for another conference to win the title for once.

b (none / 0) (#7)
by jeffinalabama on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 11:22:36 AM EST

ut 15 units?!?

I'd sooner go all in with a busted wheel draw.


I have no idea what a busted wheel draw (none / 0) (#9)
by Militarytracy on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 11:24:47 AM EST

is....and what is this 15 unit thing too :)?


Perhaps you should bet "virtually." (none / 0) (#12)
by oculus on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 11:27:46 AM EST

: That is all I ever bet :) (none / 0) (#16)
by Militarytracy on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 11:30:37 AM EST

One of my best girlfriends in high school came from a poker playing family. They played all Christmas Eve night, house full of tables and people. It was there that I learned that I am no gambler. She used to get so frustrated with me sometimes too as I lost and lost, she said I have no decent believable liar face.

inside straight (none / 0) (#13)
by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 11:28:53 AM EST

I've been known to to raise with one of those, as a bluff in person.

Online? Never. Bluffing rarely works on line.


Hey....maybe I could gamble (none / 0) (#19)
by Militarytracy on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 11:31:20 AM EST

I don't need a liar face online :)


They don't work anyway (none / 0) (#21)
by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 11:33:30 AM EST

My basic insight into online poker is on a bluff half the time people do not even know you are representing a hand and the other half don't care if you are representing a hand, they are not folding.


True enough (5.00 / 1) (#50)
by jimakaPPJ on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 01:14:26 PM EST

You can't put a move on an idiot whether it be in the flesh or over the 'net.

But there are a lot of tells in Online poker but if you have 5 other callers the fact that you have a good read on 1 player is really useless.


hmmmmmmm...interesting (none / 0) (#25)
by Militarytracy on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 11:35:39 AM EST

I've been playing a lot of 2-4 and 5-10 (none / 0) (#28)
by jeffinalabama on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 11:39:44 AM EST

fixed and pot limit omaha on stars, and the level of play is different. I got tired of the "heh, I'll see what you have" mentality in so many low limit holdem games.

Omaha players seem to have more understanding of the nuance. Maybe they aren't better players, but there isn't as much "WTF?" type play, unless from an obvious beginner.

then it's "blood in the water" time.


Maybe in the 2-4 and 5-10 games (none / 0) (#34)
by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 11:43:54 AM EST

But I don't play poker at those numbers, I'm not good enough. I stick to playng fairly tight 0.10-25 - 0.50-1.00 games, where the level of play is pretty poor.

I just play cards for fun and to pass the time.

My sports "investments" are where I roll out bigger numbers. As you can tell, mainly on college football. Certainly for any major plays. I feel I have skill at that.

The rest is a crap shoot for me.


: Just the opposite for me. (none / 0) (#48)
by jeffinalabama on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 12:40:19 PM EST

I'll bet 10 or 20 bucks on college football, but I look at poker as 'income.'

Ace to 5 is called a wheel, and a busted (none / 0) (#14)
by jeffinalabama on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 11:29:03 AM EST

wheel draw would be ommunity cards that don't give the straight...

15 units means betting 15 times what your standard bet is. If your 'one unit' bet is say, 100 dollars, a 15 unit bet is 1,500 dollars.


Heh, just listen to BTD and I, we can (5.00 / 1) (#20)
by jeffinalabama on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 11:32:51 AM EST

set you straight on gambling terminology. Not that we ever actually gamble-- that's suspicious activity in many places.


A-A-2-3 (none / 0) (#23)
by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 11:34:47 AM EST

double flush draw, Hi/Lo.

What's you bet before the flop? Pot?


what's my position? (none / 0) (#31)
by jeffinalabama on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 11:41:41 AM EST

Yep (none / 0) (#35)
by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 11:45:07 AM EST

Button, bet pot is how I play it and either win before the flop or lose on the flop.

I think I have never won post flop with that hand ever.


flop almost always comes (none / 0) (#38)
by jeffinalabama on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 11:47:16 AM EST

qq9 rainbow, rewarding the idiot with a queen, two sevens, and an A.


: That's been my experience (none / 0) (#39)
by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 11:48:03 AM EST

: Or worse, the donk with (none / 0) (#40)
by jeffinalabama on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 11:48:43 AM EST

9-9-3-5 rainbow.

Hi/Lo game (none / 0) (#18)
by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 11:31:12 AM EST

No-- under the gun, button? (none / 0) (#36)
by jeffinalabama on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 11:46:08 AM EST

First to act? call. Last to act, live table, raise, unlikely pot til flop...depends, not just one answer based on cards. I'm in the hand regardless of position, but if I act early, I don't want to run everyone out.


Responding to the other comment (none / 0) (#37)
by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 11:47:09 AM EST

I take it.


Will you be mastering this lingo in (none / 0) (#49)
by oculus on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 01:00:12 PM EST

Catalan?


: Oh dear God, (none / 0) (#52)
by jeffinalabama on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 01:25:38 PM EST

that makes my head hurt! I think French for Monte Carlo, though.
"The bank is 5,000."

So a unit is what you can afford (none / 0) (#22)
by Militarytracy on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 11:34:32 AM EST

and then there's leveraging based on risk and possible profit :) It's just like Wall Street :)


Poker is much more honest than WS. (5.00 / 2) (#51)
by jimakaPPJ on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 01:16:51 PM EST

At least in poker the value (5.00 / 1) (#54)
by jeffinalabama on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 01:37:41 PM EST

of a red chip doesn't change because of something that happens outside of the casino, right, Jim?


: True (none / 0) (#62)
by jimakaPPJ on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 04:15:27 PM EST

And the casino will give you free booze, free food, free lodging, and... perhaps... additional entertainment....
I've never got a red cent from anyone in the so-called securities biz....

The Auburn/Arkansas game (none / 0) (#8)
by BTAL on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 11:23:40 AM EST

could be a good insight into what this game could be like.

Certainly it should not prove to be a snoozer.

My thoughts, also. (none / 0) (#10)
by jeffinalabama on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 11:26:47 AM EST

I've been invited to drive to Toomer's Corner after the game, win or lose. A mail carrier buddy and his family made the offer. I'd be back at work by the morning, but I'd miss my online courses...

But for an NC celebration, it might be worth it!


Are you teaching online? (none / 0) (#26)
by Militarytracy on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 11:36:45 AM EST

He's learning on line--very early in the (none / 0) (#27)
by oculus on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 11:37:54 AM EST

morning.


My spouse has been working on his (5.00 / 1) (#33)
by Militarytracy on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 11:43:12 AM EST

masters through Troy, half in the flesh courses and half online. He hates the online courses. I think it's because it is harder to be a royal pain in the class :)


I can't advise taking synchronous online (none / 0) (#30)
by jeffinalabama on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 11:41:08 AM EST

courses at 2 a.m. and 5 a.m. unless you're a glutton for sleep deprivation.


: Or you'd live to live and work in Barcelona! (5.00 / 2) (#32)
by oculus on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 11:42:50 AM EST

Anymore, SEC just seems like an NFL (none / 0) (#42)
by magster on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 11:55:07 AM EST

developmental league.

As opposed to (none / 0) (#46)
by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 11:56:00 AM EST

the Ivy League?


As opposed to the rest of the Div. 1 schools... (none / 0) (#53)
by magster on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 01:32:33 PM EST

essentially agreeing with your point that the SEC is hands down the best conference. at least 5 of the first 10 picks in the draft are likely from the SEC.


Presently SEC is 0-1 (5.00 / 1) (#63)
by Natal on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 04:19:28 PM EST

in BCS games. If they lose tonight they'll be 0-2. Won't be good for the strongest conference. The weaker B10 ended up 1-1.


No wonder -- football (none / 0) (#57)
by brodie on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 01:49:56 PM EST

is a religion in the South.

Elsewhere in the country, things are a little more in reasonable balance.


: Balance? (none / 0) (#59)
by jeffinalabama on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 01:57:01 PM EST

Here it's binary. Football, then everything else.
That's balance. Everything else is what happens between football games.

GOOOO (none / 0) (#44)
by TeresaInSnow2 on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 11:55:18 AM EST

Gooo PAC-10!

All this gambling, betting (none / 0) (#45)
by brodie on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 11:55:27 AM EST

lingo -- very boring, not to mention confusing for those of us who don't gamble but just like football.

Back to basics: Orégone, the better team overall, the supremely energized, oxygenated and relentless offensive machine, should steamroller Auburn and their D while the Ducks D will find a way to treat Tiger QB Cameron a lot rougher than the NCAA investigators did.

Though it may take until the 2d half for this tremendously talented Pac 10 team to fully assert itself. That's when the Canards came back from a deficit against the very good Stanford Cardinalé to just crush and demoralize them in the 3d and early 4th qtrs. The 2d half is when the opponent's D just begins to tire out trying to keep up with the ferociously fast-paced Canard offense.

One thing going for Auburn: As I said here weeks ago, probably the only team this year that will have a chance to stop the Ducks offensive juggernaut will be the one which will have several weeks to prepare, both for strategizing and for conditioning. Auburn has had a full month, and with a decent, but not great D, they might be able to pull off the upset.

Heh (none / 0) (#47)
by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 11:56:30 AM EST

Sorry to bore you.


Auburn's D practices (none / 0) (#55)
by jeffinalabama on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 01:41:16 PM EST

against Auburn's up-tempo offense. And I keep saying it, there's speed, and then there's SEC speed.

Don't underestimate Auburn's defense or overestimate Oregon's offense.

Close game, high scoring. Neither team is anywhere close to perfect. The coordinators will make as much difference in this one as the players.

Auburn prevails.


I try not to underestimate (5.00 / 1) (#58)
by brodie on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 01:54:52 PM EST

anything about Auburn -- bad karma to do so, and I want my west coast Pac 10ers to prevail. But I would contend there's nothing Auburn could do on a practice field that quite resembles the pace of the Canard offense, especially as it continues relentlessly well into the 2d half.

I hope for a good game, and of course if my favorite team doesn't win I'll try to take it like the mature adult that I aspire to be, and come back here the next day ... talking about something other than football!


Well, I may gloat or weep tomorrow, but then it's (none / 0) (#60)
by jeffinalabama on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 02:04:19 PM EST

normal life until the end of August... when it begins anew. For some reason, the more advanced in years, the more important college football becomes to me.


: asdf: (none / 0) (#64)
by jeffinalabama on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 05:15:22 PM EST

From John Wayne's last film, "The Shootist": "I won't be wronged. I won't be insulted. I won't be laid a-hand on. I don't do these things to other people, and I require the same from them."

I like the lingo (none / 0) (#74)
by lilburro on Tue Jan 11, 2011 at 07:51:49 AM EST

As inscrutable as it is...I would like to know more about betting and sports betting in general. As for the game, the last half was exciting, but the Eagles I really care about are out of the playoffs... (weeps)...


Andgarden? Which team do you pick? (none / 0) (#56)
by oculus on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 01:48:47 PM EST

Oregon (none / 0) (#65)
by CoralGables on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 07:48:13 PM EST

is Pac 10 fast. I'm guessing tonight they might see they aren't SEC fast.

I have been hoping for one (none / 0) (#66)
by jeffinalabama on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 09:16:22 PM EST

NT open thread. Win or lose my team.

: Your team is gonna win (none / 0) (#68)
by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 09:17:31 PM EST

I just hedged my bet.
Oregon looks terrible.

Oregon looks terrible (none / 0) (#67)
by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 09:16:49 PM EST

I hedged my bet.

7 units on Auburn (+1.5) in the second half.

#90 for Auburn.... (none / 0) (#69)
by MileHi Hawkeye on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 10:00:00 PM EST

...Fairley has got to be the dirtiest player in all of college football.

Just one example--there are plenty of others out there--including the intentional grabbing and twisting of a facemask tonight.

A real class act for sure.

It has been quite a game (none / 0) (#70)
by Militarytracy on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 10:37:14 PM EST

Cautiously optimistic, anything can happen in this game

Haha... (none / 0) (#71)
by Addison on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 11:19:43 PM EST

...bet against the SEC again, Armando.

It was a push (none / 0) (#73)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Jan 11, 2011 at 06:50:02 AM EST

Laugh about my halftime hedge, which I lost.


: It was a related string of events... (none / 0) (#75)
by Addison on Tue Jan 11, 2011 at 11:17:09 AM EST

...touched off by betting against the SEC that led to you losing your hedge bet. Anyway, I do have to congratulate you to some degree in that I didn't see Oregon flailing in the first to the extent you (correctly) did and I thought their offense was, over time, a little more consistent and would increasingly outscore Auburn in the 2nd half.

Oops. Classic ending. (none / 0) (#72)
by oldpro on Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 11:45:08 PM EST

Anybody read Ken Armstrong's "Scoreboard, Baby"?