After NY-26, Will The Medicare Issue Scare The GOP?

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Other Politics
Posted on Wed May 25, 2011 at 09:33:00 AM EST
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Seniors vote. Always have and always will. Let seniors get a whiff that you will vote against their interests, then you should be scared. Last night, Dems won a special election in a very red congressional district, NY-26. The issue was Medicare and the GOP plan to dismantle it. How will the GOP react? Almost as interesting is how will Obama and the Dems react. The guy in charge of electing more House Dems, Steve Israel, was hammering on Medicare:

This isn't about a three-way race," said Israel. "This is about three issues: Medicare, Medicare and Medicare. Independents and seniors, if you look at the polling, are voting for the Democrat and when you ask them why, they say Medicare.

Some Dems seem willing to throw away the issue (see Steny Hoyer.) I trust the Obama Team will have more sense than that, but who knows? Paul Ryan, now the face of the GOP on Medicare, seems unwilling to go away:

Ryan said he wasn't surprised Democrats had focused on the Medicare issue. "Democrats have made it clear they were interested in medi-scare, scaring seniors," he told The Ballot Box. "And they're doubling down on that."

Ryan said a victory for Hochul in Tuesday's race wouldn't dampen enthusiasm in the GOP House Conference for his budget proposal. "No, I don't think so," Ryan said. "It just shows that they want to scare seniors and I don't think it's going to last. I think seniors are going to see through this, I think people are going to see through it."

I imagine the Republicans will be looking to people like Hoyer, and maybe Obama for that matter, to throw them a lifeline on Medicare. The Beltway wants that too.

Time will tell what they do. But in case the Obama folks are wondering what to do, here is what Bill Clinton did when Newt Gingrich decided to run on slashing Medicare in 1995 and 1996:

Clinton dubs latest budget proposal "dead on arrival"

November 18, 1995

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- President Clinton vowed again Saturday to veto the Republicans massive plan to balance the budget. The House was expected to finalize the budget measure Saturday and send it to the White House.

During his weekly radio address, the president again expressed his concerns over budget expenditures for social programs. "This budget is dead on arrival when it comes to the White House," said Clinton," and, if the price of any deal are cuts like these, my message is no deal.

This approach will work now for Obama, imo.

Speaking for me only

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After NY-26, Will The Medicare Issue Scare The GOP? | 28 comments (28 topical)

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But how will they prove their seriousness? (5.00 / 1) (#2)
by Demi Moaned on Wed May 25, 2011 at 09:14:55 AM EST

Somehow the Hoyer's of the party always seem to control the game when all is said and done.

As To Team Obama (5.00 / 1) (#4)
by The Maven on Wed May 25, 2011 at 09:24:58 AM EST

they're too busy putting Medicare on the chopping block themselves (as noted here) to utilize it on the Democrats' behalf. From the WH reaction statement to Hochul's victory:

"Kathy and I both believe that we need to create jobs, grow our economy, and reduce the deficit in order to outcompete other nations and win the future."

Nothing about the need to protect Medicare. It seems likely that the DCCC will be on its own for this one (not that I'd expect the re-election campaign to push all that hard to bring about a Democratic House, anyway). After all, pointing out the bad intentions of the other party doesn't exactly fit well with the whole reaching-across-the-aisle thing that Obama continues to believe is his key to popularity.

Feh (5.00 / 2) (#7)
by Ga6thDem on Wed May 25, 2011 at 10:31:41 AM EST

Obama will work with the GOP to cut Medicare. It is a winning issue for Dems but only if they are willing to cut Obama loose and vote against his proposals.

Absolutely right (none / 0) (#1)
by mmc9431 on Wed May 25, 2011 at 08:58:22 AM EST

Senior's vote. They don't care if it's 100 or 30 below. It will be political disaster for the party that kills Medicare. Democrats can win big in 2012 if they pound Republicans on this issue.

Any Democrat that doesn't support Medicare should not receive any national party funds for reelection. There are some issues that the tent can't accomodate.

Obama: Election was About Reducing Deficit (none / 0) (#3)
by Dan the Man on Wed May 25, 2011 at 09:23:57 AM EST

"I want to extend my congratulations to Congresswoman-elect Kathy Hochul for her victory in New York's 26th Congressional District. Kathy and I both believe that we need to create jobs, grow our economy, and reduce the deficit in order to outcompete other nations and win the future."

: And.... (none / 0) (#11)
by christinep on Wed May 25, 2011 at 03:36:58 PM EST

The President is being most presidential in Europe. Doing us proud, as they say.
Seriously, Sen. Schumer & others will (and are right now) taking up the sharp knives on the issue. My goodness...at this point, the Repubs are doing the beating-up-on-each-other routine. The first rule of political response--as you know--is to give a nudge (see, again, just about every Dem who can talk in the Senate & House today) and stand back while they continue the decimation.
Do I think that the Democratic Party & its leaders are going to get anyway near grabbing this new 3rd rail (or whatever numbered rail Medicare most assuredly is) in the name of changing it? No way. Musings about sober financial responsibilities, tough talk about the future, etc. etc..... So many axiomatic statements come to mind about today's dilemma for the Repubs. Let's start with: "Hoisted on their own petard." Then: As Sen. Schumer reminds us, every election in every district will feature a video of what the Repubs tried to do to Medicare. Positioning. Timing.

This strategy is going to work until (none / 0) (#5)
by Anne on Wed May 25, 2011 at 09:39:34 AM EST

push comes to shove and we find out what Joe Biden's bipartisan group has come up with in the way of spending cuts that Republicans are demanding in order to agree to raise the debt ceiling. Word is that they have identified $1 trillion in cuts that both sides agree on.

Remember now - Obama is on fire wanting to prove how serious he is about the debt and the deficit, and there are way too many Democrats in Congress who share his zeal.

Am I the only one who's worried? Especially given that yesterday's meeting was on Medicare, Medicaid and health spending, and the latest brilliant idea that was floated in advance of that meeting was to shift more of the cost of Medicare onto its recipients. And that's not something that's going to exempt current recipients or anyone 55 or older because they need to find "savings" NOW.

Is this one of the things they agreed to? I don't know. This is all done pretty much in secret, of course, so that no one has to be accountable for their Snidely Whiplash approach to saving money. But what worries me is that there is talk of using reconciliation to get a deal done, and that, I think, would make it more likely we would see such changes to Medicare, and how Medicaid could end up being block-granted - something I think would just kill that program.

So sure - they should enjoy the Democratic victory in NY, because I have a feeling it's going to be short-lived; you can't run on "saving" Medicare and Medicaid if you're in cahoots with Republicans to cut them, and the result will be more burden on the older population.

The one that votes.

My bets are on President Obama (none / 0) (#6)
by KeysDan on Wed May 25, 2011 at 09:45:54 AM EST

urging Congressional Democrats to enter into a swell bipartisan Medicare benefit cutting deal, thereby providing his preferred role as arbitrator between Republican and Democratic positions. The explanation will be that unlike the Republican plan that ends Medicare, the results of these tough negotiations deals with urgent realities and "reforms" Medicare.

In the process, Obama avoids offending the brilliant Ryan and provides cover for all the Republican extremists. Of course, we know that the Republicans will equate Ryan's coupon scheme with the Democrat's benefit reductions, just a slightly different approach to the problem. So much for the political edge.

Obama and many Dems are publically (5.00 / 2) (#8)
by MO Blue on Wed May 25, 2011 at 11:50:58 AM EST

pursuing a "Grand Bargain" with the Republicans that will spread the blame around for gutting needed domestic programs and shifting costs of Medicare onto the back of Seniors. Then they will cut corporate taxes and taxes for the upper 2% even further under the guise of "fixing the tax structure."

All these "fixes" are going to benefit the people that will help Obama reach his $1 billion in campaign funds, fund never ending wars and screw ordinary people big time. Come 2012 our choices will be between candidates of both parties bound and determined to make the lower 98% pay for increasing the wealth of the top 2%.


They may think it will spread (5.00 / 1) (#9)
by nycstray on Wed May 25, 2011 at 11:59:51 AM EST

the blame around, but it won't.


The problem with that plan is (5.00 / 1) (#10)
by mmc9431 on Wed May 25, 2011 at 12:02:31 PM EST

The American public isn't buying into the hype. Every poll I've seen shows that the majority people don't want these programs gutted. They also don't agree that these are the causes of the deficit.

When you read about:
The oil company subsidies,
How many billions to Afghanistan,
A few more billion to Israel and the rest of the world,
and then another 20 billion a month on wars,

it's hard to convince people that they have to give up their standard of living.

Especially after the oil tax fiasco.


That is why my bet is that (none / 0) (#12)
by christinep on Wed May 25, 2011 at 03:44:07 PM EST

there is no way that the President nor the Democratic leadership in Congress will attempt any reform prior to the elections. It isn't just the Repubs who should have been forewarned...the Dems saw what happened last night, we Dems read polls too, and the message will be very similar to what Congresswoman-elect Hochul said at her victory party last night...<to paraphrase> the deficit can be and must be attacked without touching Social Security, Medicaid, & Medicare.


What are (5.00 / 1) (#13)
by Ga6thDem on Wed May 25, 2011 at 03:52:09 PM EST

they going to do? Pull a Bush and say they aren't going to do it and then turn around and do it once the election is over? Obama simply is not trustworthy on this issue because he is always talking about "entitlement reform".


No, they are going to jab, push, and (none / 0) (#14)
by christinep on Wed May 25, 2011 at 04:21:54 PM EST

let the Repubs continues to hang themselves. In the area of Entitlements--Social Security, Medicaid, & Medicare--I do trust President Obama & a large majority of the Democrats.

And, from a more pragmatic standpoint: If any had thought about phoney-baloney Repub-lite before the upheaval of last night's election & other emanations throughout the country, I strongly suspect that flirtation has ended. Even AARP is writing in opposition.

One statement made 30ish years ago by a man with whom I agreed less that the digits on one hand (Reagan) is one that does ring true: "Trust, but verify." Here, on the issue of Medicare, there is definitely sufficient reinforcement to allow most if not all Democrats to sound & act like the Dems of distant memory...and like the memory of Hochul's statement last night. I'll say again that I am optimistic.


Here's the (5.00 / 1) (#15)
by Ga6thDem on Wed May 25, 2011 at 04:47:58 PM EST

problem: they don't stand up to Obama. Even the PCC caved on things that they said they were holding out for and Obama frankly has earned my distrust by his record in office which has shown that there is absolutely NO line in the sand for him on any issue. He will sell you out quicker than you can say Medicare.


Frankly, Ga6thDem (none / 0) (#16)
by christinep on Wed May 25, 2011 at 05:06:33 PM EST

You & I start from very different points about the President. Especially in the past several months, my respect for his approach to the Presidency has grown.

So, what to say? One thing: Perhaps, it would help to look at each issue/proposal without regard to a refrain about either how trustworthy he is or isn't? It would get us beyond slogans. Feelings are fine, but....what does one say after awhile? We all have our boogeymans or bete noires or whatever...but, we individually have to deal with them, IMO.

One example: Right now, the President's tour of Europe appears to be an overwhelming success (so far.) As a nation, we haven't seen that personal & international diplomacy in a long, long while.


This (none / 0) (#17)
by Ga6thDem on Wed May 25, 2011 at 05:30:32 PM EST

is all great if you think Bush Sr. was wonderful. He did a great job with foreign policy too. This would all be wonderful if we weren't dealing with high unemployment here in the states and as a matter of fact, the foreign travels just makes people mad because any time he spends overseas is another day he isn't doing anything about horrible economy here at home. Or maybe it's a good thing he's overseas since he's so inept at domestic policy. He could be making things worse.


Assuming we agree that the President (none / 0) (#18)
by christinep on Wed May 25, 2011 at 06:19:47 PM EST

has raised the position of the US internationally, let us look at the economy.
Getting past what was handed down from Bush II in 2009 and the near-collapse of the country's total economy per most economists, I would say that we are making incremental progress. It definitely could be a lot better. But, there is progress in the month by montyh decrease in layoffs & unemployment claims, in the increase in consumer spending, in the far better import/export ratio, in the gradual increase in hiring. For example: My husband questioned the "bail out" of Chrysler and GM...he wondered if it would affect anyone other than the owners. Yet, in recent weeks, we see repayment (& then some) and we see the announcement of 4,000 new jobs (plus the attendant, important indirect hiring in related industry) and 17 new operations. By any definition, that is the kind of progress significant in any society.

I know that it is slow in coming...but, consider where we started. We will find out soon enough how far this goes.


Oh...about "people getting mad" (none / 0) (#20)
by christinep on Wed May 25, 2011 at 06:26:51 PM EST

when a President travels: The new gallup numbers show the President at his highest approval level--53%--for the past 16 months. Darn good by any standard. (The overall average, per the somewhate conservative realclearpolitics, is 52.6%. While poll numbers move a lot, that is darn good.)

Without being sarcastic on my part--but, actually trying to find a point of common ground--is there any specific issue/specific position that Obama has taken as President with which you agree? I ask because it is something to build on.


His numbers (none / 0) (#21)
by Ga6thDem on Wed May 25, 2011 at 06:49:22 PM EST

right now are from the OBL kill. Look at the economic numbers by themselves. They are abysmal.

Do you remember '92 and Bush Sr. talk about how things were "improving"? Nobody wanted to hear it then and if unemployment is still as high in November of '12 as it is now or even over 7% it's unlikely that people are going to want to hear Obama talk about how things are "improving". People only care that that their circumstances aren't matching the rhetoric.


12% unemployment here (5.00 / 3) (#22)
by nycstray on Wed May 25, 2011 at 07:05:04 PM EST

I'm sure they're all thrilled Obama didn't scr*w up too badly on his grand photo op tour . . . we must have our priorities straight eh? :)


He is not Bush I; this is not 1992 (none / 0) (#23)
by christinep on Wed May 25, 2011 at 07:32:09 PM EST

...and, there is no Repub waiting-in-the-wings with the political charisma & abilities of a Bill Clinton. A die-hard Republican acquaintance said to me the other day:" Remember Clinton in 1992." I responded: "And now Repubs are pinning their hopes on Bill Clinton???" To the Republicans: "If wishes were fishes...."

BTW: The gallup numbers are rising after the OBL episode had already settled. Per Gallup's own somewhat surprise. It must be the European trip?

C'mon. Are you that anti-Obama that nothing pleases:)


My number (none / 0) (#24)
by Ga6thDem on Wed May 25, 2011 at 07:58:04 PM EST

one and number two thing for the past three years has been the economy and health insurance both of which Obama has managed to screw up. Obama's UE numbers are not even down to what they were in November of '08. That's my beef with Obama. If you want to call being about issues anti-Obama so be it.

According to this link his numbers are 50% link

He is right where Richard Nixon was in May of '71.


Agree with the primary domestic issues (none / 0) (#25)
by christinep on Wed May 25, 2011 at 08:42:31 PM EST

Disagree about how they have been handled. (1) On health care...sure, I would have loved single payer; but, since previous efforts by the best of them have resulted in tilting windmills, I am satisfied with the present significant incremental change. (My personal involvement--in addition to my political involvement--really awoke in 1990 when my sister, who had rheumatoid arthritis, suddenly lost her below-the-knee left leg from a blood clot. My wonderful sister & I continued to do lots of things together in the years that ensued, including talking personally with Hillary Clinton in 1993 about health care reform. Yes, it is the issue at the top of my list. (2) On the economy...without taking up too much more of your time, suffice to say that a number of economists have pointed to positive signs in the past few months. I won't start on Geithne, because I believe his record positions him too close to a key economic sector...but, I do nunderstand the argument for that kind of appointment. I believe it is working; we will see, of course. One thing I do know is that while the 1930s are instructive, there are significant differences today in what the body politic would accept because--ironically--the situation, while almost catastrophic, did not actually meet the catastrophe of the Great Depression. (Isn't that a conundrum?) The gas price issue is a classic downer, tho.


: The body (none / 0) (#26)
by Ga6thDem on Wed May 25, 2011 at 10:00:45 PM EST

politic is never going to accept any change unless there is leadership to move it along and Obama has shown a severe dearth of leadership on most issues.
It doesn't matter if there are little positive signs. There has to be some big improvement in the unemployment situation in this economy for people to start feeling better about it.
I'm one of the ones that could really care less about gas prices. I think the days of cheap gas are gone forever.

: Just a request (none / 0) (#28)
by sj on Thu May 26, 2011 at 09:40:07 AM EST

and reminder.
Can you break your comments up into paragraphs, please? There's probably some stuff in them worth reading if it were easier to do so.

I also agree with (none / 0) (#27)
by sj on Thu May 26, 2011 at 09:35:29 AM EST

"trust, but verify". But if you have been doing "verify" for the last three years, I fail to see why you have so much of the "trust".

If this deal (for lack of a better term) goes through, who do the people trust? Dems will have failed them. R's will have failed them. They won't be hanging themselves, they'll be hanging us. And our parents, our grandparents and even our children.

Shifting more of the cost onto the recipients? Really? Basically ignore the fact that Medicare exists is because seniors, on a fixed income, couldn't afford medical care? And medical care is far more expensive now.


Republicans are holding the debt ceiling (5.00 / 1) (#19)
by Anne on Wed May 25, 2011 at 06:22:41 PM EST

hostage, and that is an issue that has to be resolved long before the 2012 elections.

Given the many things that Dems have given in to up to this point, I don't know where you get the level of confidence you have that there will be no attempt at reform.

Even if you are right, I wouldn't be breathing any sighs of relief, or calling the caterer for the celebration party. My guess is that if Medicare ends up being left alone, it will be Medicaid that takes the hit; when that happens, that will be more or less the end of anything positive about Obamacare, because the Medicaid expansion represented the bulk of the actual reform.
