Electoral College Map: Likely Scenarios

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2012
Posted on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 04:33:16 PM EST
Tags: Barack Obama, Mitt Romney (all tags)

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Nate Silver now predicts President Obama will win with 303 electoral college votes.

Friday’s polling should make it easy to discern why Mr. Obama has the Electoral College advantage. There were 22 polls of swing states published Friday. Of these, Mr. Obama led in 19 polls, and two showed a tie. Mitt Romney led in just one of the surveys, a Mason-Dixon poll of Florida.

Most electoral map predictors favor President Obama -- even if he loses Florida and Virginia.
You can make your own here.

Which states will be the deciding factor? If Romney were to win Florida and Virginia, it could come down to Nevada or Colorado. Obama may not need both, one would do. [More...]

A few ways Obama tops 270 without Florida and Virginia: Here, here, here and here.

Some more poll results today.

I think it will be either a comfortable win or a squeaker win for Obama. I don't see a win for Romney. What's your prediction today?

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Electoral College Map: Likely Scenarios | 31 comments (31 topical)

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My prognostications: (5.00 / 1) (#25)
by Donald from Hawaii on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 12:29:59 AM EST

(1) President Obama will win the nationwide popular vote, 51-48%.

(2) Because the president will have garnered at least 211 electoral votes by the time the polls close in California (55 EVs) and Hawaii (4 EVs) at 11:00 p.m. EST, and since it's a given that he will win both those states by very significant margins, the major networks will immediately call the election in his favor at that time, before a single ballot is even counted in either place.

(3) The Romneys will not make a public appearance on Election Night, even after the issue is decided, and Mittens will offer his concession the next day.

(4) If the Latino turnout is much heavier than presently forecast in Nevada and Arizona, Democrats may surprise people by capturing one of the two open Senate seats in those states.

(5) When the smoke finally clears in California after a very long night of counting ballots, Gov. Jerry Brown's Prop. 30 -- an initiative to raise state taxes on the wealthy -- will be approved by CA voters, albeit barely, and the draconian across-the-board cuts otherwise promised by the governor will be averted.

it's the electoral count that matters (none / 0) (#26)
by Jeralyn on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 01:46:50 AM EST

what's your prediction there?


: See No. 2 above. (none / 0) (#28)
by Donald from Hawaii on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 02:32:52 PM EST

I think it'll be over by 9:00 p.m. your time, when California and Hawaii put Obama over the top. These two states are not in play and will be called immediately upon the closing of the polls at 8:00 p.m. PST / 6:00 p.m. HST, respectively.
Your state of Colorado will eventually go blue, but officials there will still be counting the votes by the time the networks declare the president re-elected.
But if you're looking for a final EV count, I'd say Obama wins, 332-206, because I think the Dems' GOTV effort will pull out a squeaker in Florida.

The Economist tepidly endorses (none / 0) (#1)
by oculus on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 05:23:10 PM EST

Obama:

I predict a divided nation whatever the outcome. (none / 0) (#2)
by Angel on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 05:27:14 PM EST

This all depends on turnout (none / 0) (#3)
by Slayersrezo on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 05:34:41 PM EST

And I simply don't see Obama getting the turnout.

Prepare for President Romney.

But he's getting the turnout in the early voting.. (none / 0) (#6)
by magster on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 05:51:38 PM EST

NC and FL comebacks, I read somewhere on the intertubes, were based on readjustments of the LV screen based on the volume of Obama early voting. People who weren't getting past the screen before barged right through the screen by voting.


From an OFA e-mail... (none / 0) (#16)
by magster on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 07:38:34 PM EST

Non-midtermvoters: Across nine battleground states, Democrats have a 19.7 point advantage in ballots cast among non-midterm voters. More than half (51.5 percent) of non-midterm voters who have voted already are Democrats, while fewer than a third (just 31.8 percent) are Republicans.
For example, in North Carolina, 51.5 percent of those who have already voted are Democrats, compared with just 25.1 percent who are Republicans. That's a major advantage. And among these non-midterm voters who have voted in North Carolina so far, 87 percent of them are youth (under 35), African-American, Latino, or new registrants (registered after the 2008 election).

Plus they are sending Michelle there on Monday. She's arguably the 2nd biggest draw for a rally. Why send her to a state that is lean red on a low enthusiasm day unless O campaign thinks it's happening there?


Early voting in N. Carolina has gotten (none / 0) (#17)
by caseyOR on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 07:44:48 PM EST

kind of ugly. People walking into polling places and making demands they have no right to make. Poll-watchers telling voters what to do (not allowed) and telling poll workers what to do (also not allowed).

Lots of yelling and name-calling. If it is this bad at early voting, how bad will it get on election day?


Judging from your screen name.... (none / 0) (#18)
by magster on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 07:51:02 PM EST

... you're in Oregon? Is there any update from that lady who was filling in ovals for Republicans on mail-in ballots that were only partially filled out? I'm curious as to how she was caught, and what they are going to do about it. As in, do the people who voted for Obama that she tainted get their votes counted?


: I haven't heard about that. Wow. (none / 0) (#20)
by Angel on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 07:53:53 PM EST

: Here's what I found: (none / 0) (#21)
by Angel on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 07:59:32 PM EST

http://tinyurl.com/FillingInThe-Bubbles
and this
http://tinyurl.com/JusticeDeptInvolved
Absolutely sickening.

: I am in Oregon. The secretary of state has (none / 0) (#23)
by caseyOR on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 08:19:09 PM EST

appointed someone to monitor the election in Clackamas County.

On Friday, Oregon Secretary of State Kate Brown sent an elections observer to the Clackamas County Elections Office. Fred Neal, a retired elections manager with a decade of experience, is expected to be there for as long as it takes to process all the ballots, said Andrea Cantu-Schomus, spokeswoman for the Secretary of State's Office. He will review processes and procedures, including security plans.
The DoJ is investigating. We don't know, yet, what will be done about correcting the ballots this woman allegedly tampered with. Thankfully, just about everyone in the state takes the business of voting seriously. I have seen any evidence of any organized effort to keep people from voting or steal ballots or anything like that. At least not yet.

Civility went out the window when Rush Limbaugh (none / 0) (#19)
by Angel on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 07:52:52 PM EST

and Fox News hijacked the airwaves.


We can add to that (none / 0) (#22)
by shoephone on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 08:07:35 PM EST

Jerry Springer, Maury Povich, Dr Phil, Judge Judy, and every single reality show that has as its premise a competition between contestants encouraged to act as obnoxious, selfish, and cruel to eah other as possible.


: This stuff has been going on so long I don't even (none / 0) (#24)
by Angel on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 08:25:15 PM EST

know who was first. But then I don't watch much television and never have, and I usually listen to NPR or music on Sirius when in my car. I can recall about 20 years ago that a guy I worked with was a true believer of Rush. I had to travel with him one day in his vehicle and he had Rush blasting on the radio. I asked him to turn it off and he did, but what I heard that day told me all I needed to know about who and what he was. That is my first memory of what I consider blatant incivility.

: lol. That's why I watch the Food Network. (none / 0) (#27)
by Mr Natural on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 08:55:48 AM EST

And you base this on -- what, exactly? (none / 0) (#29)
by Donald from Hawaii on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 02:38:32 PM EST

You guys over there in the right hemisphere really DO believe your own bull$Hi+, don't you?


My gut (none / 0) (#4)
by vicndabx on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 05:47:43 PM EST

which accurately told me to fill up on Sunday before hurricane Sandy hit is giving me the blowout feeling - which will have the not entirely unwanted consequence of shattering reliance on the punditry class in some unanticipated but significant manner.

Just don't want to jinx it by talking about it too much.

I think it won't be close, either. (none / 0) (#5)
by observed on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 05:51:11 PM EST

After all, even Gingrich has already said that Romney will lose.
Ryan is looking for other work, too.


Rove, Murdoch, ... (5.00 / 2) (#7)
by magster on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 05:57:19 PM EST

blaming Sandy and Gov Christie, FOX running stories on voting machines that error in favor of Romney, leaks of Romney wanting Christie, leaks about what Ryan may do to set up for 2016, Eric Erickson talking about how we are all going to h3ll regardless of who wins... the signs are all there of Republicans setting themselves up for the loss. Not seeing that from team Obama.

I have a hard time believing that the poll averaging sites are all wrong. If there is any poll bias, it's in undercounting Latinos (e.g.: CO and NV Senate races in 2010).

I pray for 270, expect 310, and fantasize about 350 with a deep red state going blue (ND or AZ) because of an underpolled Latino and/or American Indian vote.


My dream election has Ryan losing both (5.00 / 5) (#8)
by caseyOR on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 06:20:28 PM EST

of his races. He loses when Obama/Biden defeats Romney/Ryan, and the good citizens in his Congressional district come to their senses and vote him out of the house of Representatives.


If only, if only Obama (5.00 / 1) (#10)
by Towanda on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 06:58:46 PM EST

in all of his visits (of late, at long last) to Wisconsin, would have headed into Ryan's district to help deliver a smackdown.

But Obama is going to be close to that district on Monday, when in Madison -- bringing the Boss, and on the same day that Bob Dylan will be there. I can hope that their combined energies will become a forceful beam that will have impact in Ryan's district. After all, as we say now after the movie of the same name, "As Goes Janesville. . . ."


If only Obama gave a damn about the (5.00 / 1) (#11)
by caseyOR on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 07:01:36 PM EST

Congressional races, or any down ticket races. His neglect of he senate and house races strikes me as especially short-sighted. Unless, he doesn't want liberal Dems mucking up his Grand Bargain with Boehner.


"As Goes Janesville ..." (none / 0) (#30)
by Donald from Hawaii on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 02:42:36 PM EST

"... so goes Beloit"?
;-D


: Definitely. (none / 0) (#31)
by Towanda on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 06:08:00 PM EST

But as that documentary shows, Janesville has lost a lot of population in the economic disaster there; so has Beloit, so they matter less to Ryan's win.
The GM bailout could have required reopening that plant, which -- for the cost of the bonuses? -- could have won over a lot of voters and turned that district blue.

Wouldn't you love to be witness to the... (none / 0) (#9)
by magster on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 06:26:49 PM EST

... following scene.

Some hotel room at 12:01 EST, a staffer to Congressman Ryan:

"Mr. Ryan, CNN just called your district for the Democrat, and NBC just called OH and CO for Obama. I'm sorry sir, its over..... So, can I have a reference??"


: I's much rather be witness to the (none / 0) (#15)
by Anne on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 07:18:14 PM EST

meltdown the Romneys are going to experience.
Assuming robotic creatures such as Mitt "Man of a Thousand Smarmy Faces" Romney and Ann "You People" Romney won't just quietly short-circuit, that is.
Although, Paul Ryan face-down in a pile of "success" would be a picture worth framing, wouldn't it?

Bomb scares at two Florida early voting sites (none / 0) (#12)
by Angel on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 07:08:27 PM EST

today. Here's the link.

http://tinyurl.com/FloridaBombScare

I'm getting the feeling that desperation (none / 0) (#13)
by Anne on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 07:13:48 PM EST

is setting in, and for all the bluster and big talk and whatnot, reality is starting to filter in and these people are in a panic. Makes me worry a little for the hijinks that could go on on Election Day.

And wow, that Rick Scott - he sure understands the importance of voting, doesn't he? It still befuddles me how that man could be elected to clean up behind the elephants, much less be responsible for an entire state.


: You should (none / 0) (#14)
by Ga6thDem on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 07:17:20 PM EST

never be surprised as to what comes out of a tea party candidate. I guess at least Rick Scott isn't from the Victorian Era though what area in the past he is from I'm not quite sure.