Challenges to Romney's Electoral Vote Path

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2012
Posted on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 02:35:50 PM EST
Tags: Barack Obama, Mitt Romney (all tags)

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I'm still creating various scenarios with CNN's electoral vote map. It seems to me Mitt Romney has the more limited paths to victory.

Even if Romney wins Ohio, Virginia, and Florida, given the leanings of the other battleground states, he will need Colorado or New Hampshire to reach 270. He can't lose both. (Added: Changed from saying he needs both.)See map below: [More...]

If he wins Florida but loses either Ohio or Virginia, he will fall short, even winning both Colorado and New Hampshire.

Pennsylvania and Iowa seem out of his grasp. I think it comes down to Ohio, Virginia, Colorado and New Hampshire.

Out of 2.7 million voters in Colorado, 1.7 million have already voted. Republican early voters outnumber Democrats by 25,000 so I won't be surprised if Colorado goes to Romney. Things that could make it go the other way: Independents (more than 400,000 have already voted) and Amendment 64 (to decriminalize personal adult possession of small amounts of marijuana).

I still believe President Obama will win either comfortably or in a squeaker. Nate Silver now predicts Obama will get 307 electoral votes.

But you need to vote. Every vote counts towards winning a state. Don't rely on polls, or the belief you are in a "safe" state. The race is too close.

Update: Public Policy's final election poll out today increases Obama's probable electoral college votes and shows Obama with a 6 point lead in Colorado. The only two states not leaning one way or the other are North Carolina and Florida.

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Challenges to Romney's Electoral Vote Path | 73 comments (73 topical)

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If experience in polling analysis (5.00 / 2) (#6)
by KeysDan on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 04:40:46 PM EST

counts, Lou Harris one of the first presidential pollsters who worked on the John F. Kennedy campaign in 1960 (who is now 9l years old) and sharp as a tack) told me today that he feels President Obama will win in a landslide. Hope this pollster-emeritus has not lost his touch, pretty re-assuring.

I hope he's right also (none / 0) (#7)
by nycstray on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 04:48:28 PM EST

Then we need to do a mashup of all the talking heads along with the actual results :D


: Don't worry (5.00 / 3) (#9)
by Peter G on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 05:09:42 PM EST

Jon Stewart is surely already working on that.

Ross Douhat: (none / 0) (#8)
by oculus on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 04:51:30 PM EST

Prediction time: Obama survives


Oh, Jayzus. Is there anyone worse than him at (5.00 / 1) (#11)
by Angel on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 05:17:41 PM EST

the Times? Besides Brooks? Have you read the comments?


: Could not make myself read them. (none / 0) (#19)
by oculus on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 05:45:09 PM EST

Did read Dowd last night.

: No re comments. Did read (none / 0) (#20)
by oculus on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 05:46:12 PM EST

Dowd last night.

It could happen! (none / 0) (#21)
by Robot Porter on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 05:47:36 PM EST

I was actually very bullish on an Obama landslide for most of this cycle.

It could also just be wacky all over. With one unexpected state flipping one way. And another flipping the other.


With friends like these (5.00 / 3) (#22)
by CoralGables on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 05:53:23 PM EST

Some of you may have seen this. It's not often I can sit and listen to a handful of republicans talk for five minutes, but

this is pretty good

I'm not that brave. Especially with Gulianni (none / 0) (#24)
by Angel on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 06:02:39 PM EST

in the mix.


You shoukd hold on (none / 0) (#31)
by CoralGables on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 06:21:46 PM EST

until you catch one of Newt's answers. I spit my tea.


Maybe after dinner and a couple glasses of (none / 0) (#37)
by Angel on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 07:02:44 PM EST

wine.


It's the second time Newt comes up (none / 0) (#39)
by CoralGables on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 07:06:30 PM EST

in the video. Enjoy the wine.


: :) I'm drinking a good pinot, not sure I want (none / 0) (#40)
by Angel on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 07:17:54 PM EST

to waste any blowing on my keyboard, so thanks for the warning.

I rely on news organizations... (none / 0) (#34)
by unitron on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 06:45:13 PM EST

...and the Comedy Channel to listen to Republicans so that I don't have to.


Blissfully happy tonight (5.00 / 3) (#23)
by Militarytracy on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 06:02:33 PM EST

Chicken enchiladas in the oven, Obama landslide tomorrow. Josh told me that if teens decided the Presidential election, Obama got 403 electoral votes in teen voting.

Kids really are smarter than adults. (5.00 / 3) (#25)
by Angel on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 06:03:03 PM EST

Usually (none / 0) (#26)
by Militarytracy on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 06:03:37 PM EST

: There are always exceptions. :) (none / 0) (#27)
by Angel on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 06:04:18 PM EST

: I saw a headline today: if 13-yr. olds (none / 0) (#66)
by oculus on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 12:50:19 AM EST

could vote. !!!!

MT - fairly peaceful here, (5.00 / 2) (#32)
by DFLer on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 06:32:55 PM EST

Prepping for a day at the polls as election judge, reviewing opening duties, who to assign what etc.

ticking of the list of what to take, snacks, cookies,...oh yes...packing two pairs of cheaters for voters who forget them,

will party with my caucus at 9:00 pm -sh to watch returns at Charlie's Bar...might stop by my neighbor, state rep., who usually serves very good beer....democracy in action!


: Thank you so much for working tomorrow (5.00 / 3) (#36)
by Militarytracy on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 06:59:07 PM EST

This is what it was like in Florida today. (5.00 / 3) (#48)
by caseyOR on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 08:31:25 PM EST

Charlie Pierce is on-the-ground in Florida. His report on the insanity of Florida's assault on voters this election season would, if it was happening in another country not the U.S.A., have the U.S. State Department in overdrive protesting these efforts to deny people their vote.

What is happening in so many states is exactly the kind of voter suppression that we claim to oppose. Were this happening in a country in Central or South America or SE Asia or Eastern Europe or just about anywhere else on earth, the U.N. would be sending in poll watchers, the U.S. would be up in arms, Congress, people like Peter King, would be blowing a gasket over these egregious actions.

Instead, we can't even get a national press that takes this seriously, that recognizes these actions for the evil that they are, much less a full-throated protest from members of Congress.

I am ashamed of the example we are setting for the rest of the world.

Let me just add, all of this insanity (5.00 / 2) (#50)
by caseyOR on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 08:45:45 PM EST

makes me especially sad today. One hundred years ago today Oregon became the seventh state to grant women the right to vote. It would be several more years before all women in the U.S. got that right.

For decades women asked and protested and were jailed and were beaten and were force-fed while on hunger strikes and were mocked as they fought for the franchise. They knew how important it was to have the vote, how important it was that all citizens have a voice in how they are governed.

For so long the United States has been a beacon for people around the world fighting for their right to vote. Those days are over. We have abdicated our leadership on this issue. We have failed ourselves and our ideals.

So, I am sad.


I heard on the news tonite (5.00 / 1) (#59)
by Amiss on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 11:00:39 PM EST

that the Florida governor acts like he thinks he is a dictator in a third world country. I am so sad. To make matters worse, we are predicted to get more bad weather tomorrow. My heart breaks for those in the NE and for all Americans.


: I still don't understand how NY and NJ (none / 0) (#63)
by shoephone on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 12:36:43 AM EST

voters are going to be able to vote. With tens of thousands having lost their homes, are they going to have the inclination to figure out where they're supposed to vote and go do it? They have such enormous basic needs to deal with right now. And power still isn't on in a lot of areas. Will their usual polling places even be in existence anymore?

Which is why my FL brother is on the (5.00 / 2) (#67)
by oculus on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 12:52:39 AM EST

phone and on the street. I've never seen him so determined.


What could be his last update (5.00 / 1) (#54)
by CoralGables on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 09:13:04 PM EST

Nate Silver has increased Obama's chances of winning to 91.4% and to win 314.4 electoral votes.

That's the computer talking on the 314.4. If Obama takes every state Nate is projecting right now Obama will win the EV 332-206.

And tomorrow I drive a few elderly Spanish speaking citizens to the polls for the Obama campaign and get to practice my very limited Spanish.

Votar Obama. Yo soy su conductor.
(or something like that in a gringo accent)

I hope Obama wins every state where the GOP (5.00 / 3) (#55)
by caseyOR on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 09:14:45 PM EST

enacted voter suppression laws. Every single one.


Yup (5.00 / 1) (#57)
by ruffian on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 09:24:35 PM EST

Maybe if all else fails they will someday try to win votes by putting forward reasonable candidates and policies.

It's a long shot, but a girl can dream.


Did you see this NYT Op Ed? (none / 0) (#68)
by oculus on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 12:53:51 AM EST

: "Fundamental disdain for the facts" (5.00 / 2) (#69)
by ruffian on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 08:20:45 AM EST

That is what makes me crazy. So cynical. Worse is the people that know what is going on and vote for Romney anyway because they think he will save them a few bucks. Selling out their country, IMO.

Hope you saw PPP's last CO poll released... (none / 0) (#1)
by magster on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 02:58:40 PM EST

this morning that had O + 6 in CO.

Also, please refer to my comment #59 in the last thread. I am sincerely grateful.

GOP voter disenfranchisement.... (none / 0) (#2)
by magster on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 03:35:51 PM EST

... dates back at least to the Reagan era.

Pretty Sure it Dates Back to... (none / 0) (#4)
by ScottW714 on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 04:05:14 PM EST

...the 15th Amendment and those poll taxes, so Grant. And while they may have been Dixiecrats, they disenfranchised the same folks, for the same reasons.


To quote David Frum ... (none / 0) (#46)
by Donald from Hawaii on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 08:00:33 PM EST

... from earlier today:

"No voting system is perfect. Britain has faced allegations of chronic fraud in absentee balloting. As I write, Lithuanian politics are convulsed by allegations of vote buying by one of its political parties.

"But here's what doesn't happen in other democracies: Politicians of one party do not set voting schedules to favor their side and harm the other. Politicians do not move around voting places to gain advantages for themselves or to disadvantage their opponents. In fact, in almost no other country do politicians have any say in the administration of elections at all."

: as it should be. (5.00 / 1) (#60)
by Amiss on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 11:14:48 PM EST

Got my first 'celebrity' robo-call today from Eva Longoria. Too bad Mr. didn't answer the phone. LOL.

I made a change (none / 0) (#3)
by Jeralyn on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 03:36:15 PM EST

Romney doesn't need both Colo and NH, just one, should he win Ohio, VA and FL.

My dentist just told me he gets at least (none / 0) (#5)
by oculus on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 04:32:42 PM EST

one e-mail/day from either state of local GOP reminding him he didn't vote in 2010 and needs to do so now. Very clever.

Is there really a correlation (none / 0) (#28)
by Militarytracy on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 06:07:26 PM EST

Between dentists and suicide without the GOP mindset? Yes.....I'm awful....but inquiring minds and all. Can't help noticing my dentist is a conservative and so is Josh's.


My former dentist was the county chair of the R (none / 0) (#29)
by Angel on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 06:16:37 PM EST

party here, now a college regent appointed by Rick Perry. Old white guy. But a nice old white guy.


My dentist seems quite young to me! (none / 0) (#64)
by oculus on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 12:47:30 AM EST

He has young boys. He is fun to talk to. Until today!


: My dentist is great (none / 0) (#71)
by Militarytracy on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 09:54:10 AM EST

So is Josh's. I can't comprehend why such gifted guys are Republicans. Josh's dentist is the only dentist in the area that doesn't even flinch in taking care of him. He going to have to have teeth removed soon, dental surgery on a special needs child with a congenital small mouth. He's a lion...among loons. Both dentists are deeply Christian though and I think that has much to do with it.

I think Romney will win (none / 0) (#10)
by Slado on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 05:14:24 PM EST

But that is based on a simple assumption.

Obama will under preform his democratic turnout from '08.

If that happens he will loose because he will loose independents by 10% plus and Romney will overpreform with republicans as compared to '08.

The Obama campaign is counting on a high democratic turnout vs. a static Republican turnout and not ignoring the reality that they are losing independents badly.

Most of the state polls and democratic analysts are assuming the opposite of me while the national and republican analysts are using the same assumption.

We'll see. Common sense tells me that there won't be as many democrats as there where in '08 and if that is true Obama can't afford to loose the crossover republicans and independents as bad as all the polls are showing.

That is what the election boils down to. All the signs are there for a Romney victory yet the punditry at large is assuming that the Obama machine will get out the vote better then they did in '08 and enough overcome a lack of enthusiasm, a loss of independents and a energized republican coalition.

I don't see it.

Okay. See you Wednesday. (5.00 / 1) (#12)
by Angel on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 05:20:06 PM EST

The only way Romney wins it (5.00 / 1) (#13)
by shoephone on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 05:21:17 PM EST

is by stealing it. The GOP voter suppression and intimidation effort is out in full force in Ohio and Florida. That's all Romney's got left: criminality.


You know what they say. By hook or by crook. (none / 0) (#14)
by Angel on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 05:24:07 PM EST

Sorry to burst your bubble (none / 0) (#15)
by Slado on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 05:26:42 PM EST

But this is a 50/50 election.

If Obama wins it won't be by much and Romney vice versa.

All this boils down to one simple rule. What will the electrate be?

If it's even R/D then obama loses because he's going to loose independents.

If it's D +4 or more he wins as all the state polls are showing.

This article spells it out pretty well. Again this is based on my similar assumption.

Only one person can be right.

If I'm wrong I promise to shave off my mustache!!!!


One more thing (none / 0) (#16)
by Slado on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 05:29:37 PM EST

The Redskins lost


: Ahhhh, BUT the National League won!! :D (5.00 / 1) (#35)
by nycstray on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 06:52:11 PM EST

Ha (none / 0) (#17)
by CoralGables on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 05:31:48 PM EST

Funny you should quote internals. Those are only released to try to garner a headline and the only place it worked this time was overseas.

Here's the math on internals. The bias is approximately 6%. By those figures Romney is handily losing every state poll he mentions that he needs to win.


: Yes, it is hard to (5.00 / 1) (#33)
by KeysDan on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 06:40:37 PM EST

hear the Romney campaign at this point overr the sounds of Rafalca being saddled-up for that ride into the sunset..

Well (5.00 / 3) (#18)
by lilburro on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 05:33:05 PM EST

you are aware Obama is now leading in most national polls, also?

And the word you are looking for is "lose."


Your passion has destroyed your (5.00 / 2) (#65)
by oculus on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 12:49:23 AM EST

usually reliable grammar.


my only prediction right now (none / 0) (#30)
by CST on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 06:20:44 PM EST

Nh for Obama. It's red on all your maps, but I think it will go blue tomorrow.

No sense of warren/brown. But all the Obama I know are sticking with warren. If that holds... She should be solid. Not all of them bothered to vote in 2010 but they are this year. I just hope it holds.

Not used to contested elections here. I'm not loving the ad barrage.

I was doing a best case scenario (5.00 / 1) (#42)
by Jeralyn on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 07:36:37 PM EST

for Mitt. NH and Colo are still toss-ups. It's pretty clear Mitt can't get Nevada, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan or Minnesota. Pennyslvania is a fantasy for him. He might not even get North Carolina. So in the context of the big 3 toss-ups, Ohio, VA and Florida, I gave him NH. Hope that makes sense.


Wisconsin (none / 0) (#44)
by glanton on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 07:53:25 PM EST

Over at Althouse they are crowing that they have Wisconsin in the bag. You buy this at all?


: no I think wisconsin (5.00 / 1) (#62)
by Jeralyn on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 12:35:40 AM EST

will go to Obama

: New voter suppression laws (none / 0) (#72)
by Towanda on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 10:50:19 AM EST

continuing to cause chaos, reported at some polling places today, plus voter intimidation (have you seen the video of the training of GOP poll observers to be obstreperous?) and downright dirty tricks are a concern in Walker's Wisconsin.
It's the seventh election in 22 months in the state. That ought to mean poll workers know what to do, but the back and forth rulings in the courts that have changed interpretations of the new voter suppression laws have caused problems at each election and probably will do so again.
The constant elections also mean that both sides have got good organizations in place for the ground game -- but, remember, Walker won the recall. (Also in part, I think, owing to voting machines up north that are illegal in Wisconsin, but I'm not sure that I'm allowed to say more about those on this blog.)

I agree with your prediction (5.00 / 1) (#47)
by dk on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 08:17:10 PM EST

that Obama will win NH.

I'm also really keeping fingers crossed for Warren. Heck, I'm not even voting for Obama, and I very well may have stayed home otherwise, but I'm headed out to vote in the morning for Warren. You'd have to think the odds are in her favor (even taking into account a few polls showing a tie) given the trouncing Mitt will take tomorrow here, but I guess we'll see.

(Also, we have physician assisted suicide and medical marijuana ballot questions, which are important too!)


the secretary of state (none / 0) (#49)
by CST on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 08:35:21 PM EST

predicted that we'd see more people this year than in '08. With the contested senate election it makes sense, still a lot more people voting than did in 2010, it will be a completely new group of people.

I think there are a number of people who, like you wouldn't bother to vote for president in MA, but will turn up for the senate race (on both sides this is true though). I'm hoping that the bigger election will help her seal the deal.

And yes, the other questions on the ballot are important, although I'm still confused about Question 1, a fight about auto repair, which was apparently already passed by the legislature?

Question 2 and 3 are big ones though. I find this from a medical mj opponent too ironic for words "Opponents say that medical practice should not be determined by popular opinion, that there has not been rigorous research on the benefits". I'm pretty sure the medical community thinks it shouldn't be restricted by popular opinion, and that there has, in fact, been rigorous research on the benefits.


Oh yah, completely different from 2010 (5.00 / 1) (#52)
by dk on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 08:50:15 PM EST

Have you seen the Warren ad that states flat out that she will never vote to reduce Medicare and Social Security benefits? She is the only Democratic candidate this cycle (and that includes Obama) I have heard say that. It really struck me, and makes me so proud of being from here.

I predict medical MJ will pass. Not sure about physician assisted suicide. But maybe that's me projecting my own feelings. Still not quite sure what to do about the latter. I mean, on the one hand I do believe that autonomy over one's own body also includes the ability to commit suicide. But, of course, it's literally a "life and death" issue, and thus the toughest kind of thing to vote on. Plus, it raises so many complicated medical-legal-ethical questions, there's this part of me that is unsure as to whether having it on a popular ballot is the right way to handle this. I'm sleeping on that one.

Oh, and I didn't say I wasn't voting top of the ticket. I'm just not voting for one of the two major party candidates.


: I'll offer you 10 McCaskill's and throw (none / 0) (#73)
by MO Blue on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 06:11:27 PM EST

in a bonus of one Obama in trade for Warren.

Yes on NH. Has been blue in PollTracker (none / 0) (#38)
by ruffian on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 07:02:46 PM EST

for a week or so. Way to go Sununu.


I just really hope at this point (none / 0) (#41)
by CST on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 07:25:56 PM EST

Warren can hold onto the win.


Elizabeth looks great (none / 0) (#43)
by CoralGables on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 07:44:54 PM EST

RCP has her at +3.5
Nate has her at +4.4

When Brown won last time I was one of the ones that thought it would be tough to knock him back out. Warren looks like she'll prove me wrong.


Yes, she looks solid to me (none / 0) (#51)
by ruffian on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 08:49:39 PM EST

That will make me very happy.


Here's something else (none / 0) (#53)
by CoralGables on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 09:06:30 PM EST

to put a grin on your face.

Although he's been doing a post midnight update too, as of right now Nate Silver has just flipped Florida to Obama.


: Wow, that is great news. (none / 0) (#56)
by ruffian on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 09:22:13 PM EST

I have a neighbor to work on in the morning...gonna to try to flip her.
One more thing that will make me happy- Tim Kaine beating that chucklehead George Allen. Not a huge Kaine fan, but Allen is odious,

: I had heard this since yesterday (none / 0) (#61)
by Amiss on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 11:47:17 PM EST

It's the early voters so they say. Romney early voters skin is significantly lighter than Democratic early voters and that is precisely why Rick Scott has been pulling every dirty trick in the books. Florida does have a saving grace in regard Imho to others is that we have a very popular former republican governor who is an avid Obama supporter.

Mitt is charging the media (none / 0) (#45)
by CoralGables on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 07:55:33 PM EST

to be at his election night gathering tomorrow night. No one gets in the door for free. Depending on what they need, the media pays anywhere from $75 - $6500

: Wow. I hope they don't go. (5.00 / 1) (#70)
by ruffian on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 08:22:54 AM EST

What will there be to cover anyway, except the sobbing?

: My God...this man's ego knows no (none / 0) (#58)
by Anne on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 09:48:22 PM EST

bounds, does it?
Is he charging by the cocktail weenie?
Yeah, this man knows business...sure he does.
::rolling eyes::