The United States can target and kill someone as a terrorist, only to have Yemenis take up arms to defend him as a tribesman. In time, many of these men are drawn to al Qaeda not out of any shared sense of ideology, but rather out of a desire to get revenge on the country that killed their fellow tribesman.
...The United States has yet to realize that this is not a war it can win on its own. Only the tribesmen and clerics in Yemen are in a position to decisively disrupt, dismantle, and defeat al Qaeda.
This reminds me of the solutions proposed by some for eliminating Somali piracy. Instead of funneling millions or more dollars into armed guards on ships, why not use the money to make it more profitable for them not to pirate?
What would it take to have the tribesmen in Yemen shift their allegiance away from AQAP because they value what the U.S. and their Government is offering more? Is it money, return of lands, more of a voice in how the country is run, rebuilding the country's infrastructure or simply restoring security and law and order?
Johnson recommends this 2012 Nation article by Jeremy Scahill. Scahil writes:
There is no question that AQAP took advantage of the moment, shrewdly recognizing that its message of a Sharia-based system of law and order would be welcomed by many in Abyan who viewed the Saleh regime as a US puppet. The US missile strikes, the civilian casualties, an almost total lack of government services and a deepening poverty all contributed.
...“Ansar al Sharia has been much more proactive in attempting to provide services in areas in Yemen where the government has virtually disappeared,” says Gregory Johnsen, a Yemen scholar at Princeton University. “It has claimed that it is following the Taliban model in attempting to provide services and Islamic government where the central government in Yemen has left a vacuum.”
....Ansar al Sharia repaired roads, restored electricity, distributed food and began security patrols inside the city and its surroundings. It also established Sharia courts where disputes could be resolved. “Al Qaeda and Ansar al Sharia brought security to the people in areas that were famous for insecurity, famous for thefts, for roadblocks,” says Abdul Rezzaq al Jamal, an independent Yemeni journalist who regularly interviews Al Qaeda leaders and has spent extensive time in Zinjibar. “
Taking out al Awlaki's son and his cousin in a drone strike is typical of how the U.S. focus on drone strikes has driven tribesmen and others in Yemen to AQAP instead of away from it.
The October drone strike that killed Awlaki’s 16-year-old son, Abdulrahman, a US citizen, and his teenage cousin shocked and enraged Yemenis of all political stripes. “I firmly believe that the [military] operations implemented by the US performed a great service for Al Qaeda, because those operations gave Al Qaeda unprecedented local sympathy,” says Jamal, the Yemeni journalist. The strikes “have recruited thousands.” Yemeni tribesmen, he says, share one common goal with Al Qaeda, “which is revenge against the Americans, because those who were killed are the sons of the tribesmen, and the tribesmen never, ever give up on revenge.”
AQAP, as the article points out, has gone from a group of militants to a group that includes tribe members:
The United States may see AQAP as a membership organization with a finite number of members who can be taken out through a drone- and Tomahawk missile–fueled war of attrition, but there are varying shades of support and involvement among broader segments of Yemeni society. While there are certainly some foreign operatives in AQAP, the majority of those described as “militants” are Yemenis who belong to powerful tribes.
The people of Yemen do not want to the next stomping ground for the U.S. They know what the U.S. did in Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan. The drone strikes in Yemen just confirm to them that they are the next victims. One tribal sheik tells Scahill:
“If my government built schools, hospitals and roads and met basic needs, I would be loyal to my government and protect it. So far, we don’t have basic services such as electricity, water pumps. Why should we fight Al Qaeda?”
Terrorism may be in the eye of the beholder. The U.S. views AQAP as terrorists. The Yemenis believe the U.S. with its increasing drone strikes is the terrorist. The tribal sheik says:
[S]everal US strikes in his region have killed scores of civilians and that his community is littered with unexploded cluster bombs, which have detonated, killing children. He and other tribal leaders asked the Yemeni and US governments for assistance in removing them, he says.
Another good read: Michelle Shepard's Jan. 1, 2010 article in the New Republic, AQAP: A Primer. Also, this 2009 article explaining the importance of the tribes to al Qaeda and the need for stability in Yemen.
Here's more on how the drones and counter-terror focus are hurting chances for stability in Yemen.
