Reuters: Hillary Has 15 Point Lead Among Early Voters

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2016
Posted on Sat Oct 29, 2016 at 06:40:59 PM EST
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Via Reuters:

Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton leads Republican Donald Trump by 15 percentage points among early voters surveyed in the past two weeks, according to the Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project.

Though data is not available for all early voting states, Clinton enjoys an edge in swing states such as Ohio and Arizona and in Republican Party strongholds such as Georgia and Texas.

According to University of Florida’s United States Election Project, 19 million voters have already cast their ballots -- that's 20% of the electorate.

According to the State of the Nation polling results released Saturday, on Thursday Hillary had a 95% chance of winning the electoral college votes.

As to the qualities of good temperament and judgment expected of the next Commander in Chief and leader of the free world, comparing the FBI's nebulous reference to any potential significance of emails recently found on the Wiener/Abedin home computing devices, to the dozen or more allegations by various women of inappropriate sexual overtures and/or contact against Donald Trump, is like comparing the flu to AIDS.

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Reuters: Hillary Has 15 Point Lead Among Early Voters | 33 comments (33 topical)

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Flu to AIDS?. (5.00 / 1) (#1)
by mogal on Sat Oct 29, 2016 at 07:12:46 PM EST

I would say a tricycle to an airplane.

Time for a Tropes 101 Teachable Moment (none / 0) (#2)
by Mr Natural on Sat Oct 29, 2016 at 08:15:10 PM EST

Influenza currently kills three times as many people each year as HIV.


: and let's not forget the 1918 flu (none / 0) (#7)
by cpinva on Sun Oct 30, 2016 at 09:26:55 AM EST

epidemic, that killed nearly as many people worldwide, as were killed in the entirety of wwI, which it actually (briefly) halted. so yeah, not even close.

Ralston in Nevada (5.00 / 1) (#3)
by Ga6thDem on Sat Oct 29, 2016 at 08:36:11 PM EST

has tweeted that NV is already becoming out of reach there and likely the entire down ticket Republicans are going to lose too. Trump is having to campaign in Arizona which is bad news for the GOP.

Here in my county in GA the elections board is expecting a 80% voter turnout which is unprecedented.

Public polls for Nevada (5.00 / 2) (#5)
by MKS on Sat Oct 29, 2016 at 09:52:39 PM EST

notoriously under poll Democratic voters. When Harry Reid beat Sharon Angle by 5 points, the media was surprised because Angle had led by 5 points in the public polls.

But Reid's private pollster said Harry was always up by 5 according to their internal polls. Angle's pollster said his private polls showed the same. The difference? The private polls are more thorough--and expensive.

I have been a part of the Obama GOTV in Vegas. They left no stone unturned in finding votes. Many of those operatives are with Hillary now. And, if I am not mistaken, Robbie Mook, Hillary's campaign manager, was Hillary's wunderkind in 2008 who spooked the hell out of the Obama people with his strong showing in various places including Nevada.

The recent NBC polls that showed it close in Nevada just missed imo.


Yes, Robby Mook (5.00 / 3) (#6)
by Ga6thDem on Sun Oct 30, 2016 at 06:12:05 AM EST

was the one who helped shock the Obama people with Hillary winning the primary in Ohio in 2008. It's odd how Obama gets all this credit in 2008 and Hillary mostly gets none for the campaign she ran back then. Nobody seems to remember that Hillary gave Obama quite a few scares.


: I don't think there (none / 0) (#8)
by MKS on Sun Oct 30, 2016 at 10:35:01 AM EST

is much doubt about her running the better campaign the second half of the 2008 Primaries.

i would love to see a mass slaughter (5.00 / 3) (#9)
by cpinva on Sun Oct 30, 2016 at 10:58:08 AM EST

of republicans nationwide, from the top down. that would be the kind of slaughter I could get behind.


: Me too. (none / 0) (#10)
by Ga6thDem on Sun Oct 30, 2016 at 11:30:57 AM EST

They really need to be sent out into the wilderness for quite a while to first of all grow up and secondly maybe they can develop a governing philosophy. If not then maybe they just need to fold up their tent.

I'm one! I mailed my vote in on Friday and (5.00 / 1) (#11)
by ruffian on Sun Oct 30, 2016 at 02:39:58 PM EST

was so proud and happy to do so. Florida looks really close right now, but I do think she will pull it out. At least of the big name surrogates have any impact at all.

A couple of friends waited in line to see Obama at nearby UCF on Friday, but were not able to get in. Unfortunately they had the rally in the basketball arena which ONLY holds 12k, not the football stadium. Lots of people did not make it in and had to listen to the speech from outside. One did get a great picture of the motorcade pulling in though, so that's something.

Great column by Susan Faludi today (5.00 / 4) (#12)
by ruffian on Sun Oct 30, 2016 at 03:44:23 PM EST

How Hillary clinton met Statan . Putting context to the longstanding Clinton Derangement Syndrome, things that were perfectly clear in the 90s but seem to go unspoken now. How the Clintons ruined the Reagan era dream of GOP rule forever, and at the same time threatened male dominance. I think much of it is just ingrained as part of my support for HRC. I can see how younger people are tired of fighting this battle, but as Faludi points out, it won't be over until it is defeated, and maybe Hillary is the only one that can do it, and, I will add, pick up the pieces afterward. As good as he has been in some ways, Obama did not really try to battle it. He mostly used his legendary cool to inspire others and keep the nastiness from affecting him personally, but that does not much help the rest of us that have to keep fighting it.

: That is so true (5.00 / 3) (#13)
by Ga6thDem on Sun Oct 30, 2016 at 04:12:05 PM EST

and Hillary hopefully is going to slay this dragon with our help. For over 30 years the GOP has believed that they are entitled to the white house. They need to learn they are not and that they are going to have to earn it. I would love nothing more than total annihilation of the GOP on election day.

double standards (5.00 / 2) (#15)
by KeysDan on Mon Oct 31, 2016 at 10:36:37 AM EST

In considering Hillary Clinton. Her 30 years in public life are scrutinized for every scintilla that might be damaging. including a bizarre missive about something related to an already concluded case. If Trump has not said or done anything outrageous in the past 30 minutes it shows what a great man he is. At least in republican land.

"already concluded" (none / 0) (#17)
by thomas rogan on Mon Oct 31, 2016 at 11:57:23 AM EST

Investigators reopen cases all the time when new evidence appears. What else are they supposed to do?
You can blame the timing on Huma Abedin. If she had offered these computers to the FBI in March then they could have reviewed them by July and closed the case.


: She told them (none / 0) (#19)
by Ga6thDem on Mon Oct 31, 2016 at 01:03:16 PM EST

about them last April.

: yes. (none / 0) (#20)
by KeysDan on Mon Oct 31, 2016 at 01:38:37 PM EST

There was a legal conclusion publicly announced..it was in all the papers, and tv.too. it was not closed nor reopened. And, there is no evidence that warrants such.

Absolutely - we're good. (5.00 / 3) (#22)
by Yman on Mon Oct 31, 2016 at 03:13:41 PM EST

OTOH, you conservatives clearly haven't thought through yours.

Jumping (5.00 / 2) (#23)
by FlJoe on Mon Oct 31, 2016 at 03:21:51 PM EST

Jehosphat! A ton of tinfoil lathered with holy water.

First sign (5.00 / 3) (#24)
by Ga6thDem on Mon Oct 31, 2016 at 04:11:25 PM EST

that evangelicals know they are losing and losing big. It's their desperate attempt to maintain white nationalism.


perhaps you are confused about that term? (2.00 / 1) (#26)
by linea on Mon Oct 31, 2016 at 07:56:28 PM EST

it is not a synonym for religious evangelical.


: Evangelicals (5.00 / 2) (#27)
by Ga6thDem on Mon Oct 31, 2016 at 10:28:29 PM EST

and religious evangelicals are one in the same. Evangelical means to spread religion or to evangelize. However I'm reluctant to use the word Christian with evangelicals because I don't feel that they are Christians at all.

Anf he's figured out our nefarious scheme! (5.00 / 1) (#32)
by Donald from Hawaii on Tue Nov 01, 2016 at 04:48:53 PM EST

Clearly, they're just too smart for us. Quick, everyone! Let's shut down, burn all or important papers, and meet at our agreed-upon rendezvous point at the secret airstrip in Mena, Arkansas where we can make our escape!


It's all Huma's fault (1.00 / 1) (#16)
by thomas rogan on Mon Oct 31, 2016 at 11:52:55 AM EST

She had a computer which contained thousands of emails sent from Hillary's private email server. Instead of giving it to be reviewed in the original FBI investigation early in 2016 so the matter could have been settled, she COVERED IT UP and hid it. It is a sheer accident that the FBI got it via the Weiner child porn investigation.

In that case (5.00 / 1) (#18)
by Repack Rider on Mon Oct 31, 2016 at 12:48:52 PM EST

...Hillary is off the hook, have had nothing at all to do with Huma's actions.

So why is this a big deal to anyone, seeing that it does not involve HRC except as being referenced in somebody else's email?


: Or as (5.00 / 3) (#28)
by Nemi on Tue Nov 01, 2016 at 07:44:31 AM EST

Salman Rushdie succinctly put it on Facebook:

So, to recap. Trump will go on trial in November accused of racketeering, and again in December accused of child rape. He is a sexual predator, hasn't released his tax returns, and has used his foundation's money to pay his legal fees. He has abused the family of a war hero and... oh, but let's talk about some emails Hillary didn't send from someone else's computer, that weren't a crime anyway, because that's how to choose a president. Come on, America. Focus.
Yeah, sigh, "let's talk about some emails Hillary didn't send from someone else's computer, that weren't a crime anyway ..." Precisely. Sad!

Oh, pffft! You don't know that. (none / 0) (#30)
by Donald from Hawaii on Tue Nov 01, 2016 at 04:34:56 PM EST

You're clearly not an FBI agent, and you're most certainly not an acquaintance of Huma Abedin and / or Anthony Weiner, and so you can't possibly know anything of any import to accuse her with such nonsensical certitude of orchestrating a cover-up.

The only thing you've proved with your rant is that you're just another obnoxious wingbat with an ignorant opinion, a tin ear for fact and truth, and access to the internet.

:-|


20% of the electorate (none / 0) (#4)
by MKS on Sat Oct 29, 2016 at 09:45:54 PM EST

sounds like the total of registered voters. But we don't get above 60% very often. So 20% of electorate could be twice that for the total final vote.

i recently met (none / 0) (#14)
by linea on Sun Oct 30, 2016 at 08:44:26 PM EST

a woman from the suburbs (pretty rare for me). she lives with her rents and her familiy is republican conservative. her rents arent voting and she's voting Hillary because of trumps contempt and behavior toward women.

but i feel we do need to put the phrase "leader of the free world" in the dustbin. it's a ridiculous anacronism.

Wow, I never thought of that (none / 0) (#25)
by Repack Rider on Mon Oct 31, 2016 at 07:19:29 PM EST

...because I'm not crazy.

Jesus was a liberal.

YES!!!! (none / 0) (#29)
by Chuck0 on Tue Nov 01, 2016 at 09:05:40 AM EST

The sooner religion (not just christianity) is outlawed the safer the planet will become! Just kidding (sort of). However I do strongly support revoking the tax exemptions given to religion. Especially for preachers who openly advocate for candidates from the pulpit (of any party).

Your "war on christians" diatribe is hilarious. Oh those poor downtrodden christians in America. All umpteen millions of them.

You know, I have a sneakins suspicion that ... (none / 0) (#31)
by Donald from Hawaii on Tue Nov 01, 2016 at 04:44:50 PM EST

... TL now has one of its very own Russian concern trolls, who's post his (or her) very first comment here. How exciting! Hey, Jeralyn, can you have the guy who maintains your site check and see where our mysterious Dr. Zhivago's ISP is located? This could be fun!

Latest early voting poll from FL (none / 0) (#33)
by Yman on Tue Nov 01, 2016 at 09:56:36 PM EST

Being discussed on Lawrence O'Donnell's show - Hillary up by 14% in the early FL vote, getting 28% of the Republican vote, projected to win FL by 8%.

Being released tomorrow.

hahahahahahaha (none / 0) (#34)
by pitachips on Thu Nov 03, 2016 at 06:56:05 PM EST

Do they let you go to the bathroom comrade?