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.."Clinton regularly referenced individuals, issues and challenges facing Wisconsin in general and Milwaukee, in particular. ...Clinton displayed a sense of place that was not just an example of smart politics, it was a reminder of what Americans should expect in a presidential contender and a president." The Mayor of Milwaukee was quoted by Nichols saying ..."She knew enough about Wisconsin to use references from here to explain where she stands on national issues...impressive."
He is Madison-based. Not to be confused with reality-based. Many a Madisonian may have been through Milwaukee on the freeway to Chicago but never took an off-ramp to actually see the city. Parent
He's not writing for himself. Parent
But, according to the MSM, that's NOT what we need in a president.
We need someone with a clear, single message.
What president has had that?
Even Mr. Message Discipline himself Ronald Reagan didn't have that. Look at his campaign ads from 1980. They're all over the place.
A single message would be fine if presidents did one thing. And that one thing was entirely predictable. They do all manner of things. Much of it not predictable.
Clear, single messages are for advertising toilet paper not electing presidents. Parent
A Republican opposition research firm is increasing its efforts to dig up dirt on Bernie Sanders after his victory over Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire.
America Rising sent a batch of routine Freedom of Information Act requests this week asking for correspondence between Sanders' Senate office and federal government departments. The group had also submitted some requests for Sanders last month.
Typically, such requests are sent years before the presidential race due to the lengthy FOIA process. A review of FOIA logs with federal agencies shows America Rising looking into Clinton years before the election due to her status as the presumptive nominee.
It's like a dream, from total fringe irrelevance to scaring the sh:t out of the bastards in 6 months. Parent
After all, this is a guy who calls Obama a communist..
Btw, he ain't no Doc Savage; Michael Weiner aka "Dr Savage", holds a doctorate in plant physiology. He thought it would impress Doctor Laura. And maybe Doctor Kissinger. Parent
Mojave Trails, Sand to Snow, and Castle Mountains are the 20th, 21st, and 22nd national monuments that have been created or expanded under President Obama, adding up to a total of 3.5 million acres of new protections for public lands.
Thousands of children with potential brain damage, jail doesn't begin to reach the punishment Snyder deserves.
They say unless the senate confirms someone these things won't happen. Parent
My question to Mitch McConnell is do you really want Trump nominating anyone all things considered? Parent
You want t wait for Hillary and a democratic senate? Parent
Does that mean I have to watch?
Someone just made the point the court, since the 70s, has had a majority appointed by republicans. That might be about to change. And that's a big deal.
outside if some kind of national security thing nothing bigger than the tie breaking vote on the court.
After years of trying to motivate people to vote the court, it's finally going to happen. Considering demographics, thanks Tony.
Those sharecroppers' descendants don't understand us, at all. But they sure have the arrogance to think that they know better for us all.
People should be careful around children. They see everything.
And as someone who watched his father work, successfully, to establish a union shop despite the threats of violence, etc., and who saw the improved wages and benefits, I don't need lectures about unions in private companies.
But unions in government as a source for politician's reelection funds....no. The conflicts of interest are many and varied. And have helped create "people of importance inside the Democratic (and Republican) party."
We really don't need them. What you have to decide is if you are for some of'em are all of them. Parent
And I am banned, by state law (nothing to do with the private sector), from collecting bargaining rights.
I don't need lectures on this, either. I live it. Parent
Interesting remarks from Jill Stein re the [ http://www.alternet.org/video/could-sanders-deliver-medicare-all lunacy ] of super-delegates , plus a history lesson for those of us too young to remember the McGovern campaign.
Most delegates, that's about 80 percent of delegates, are actually chosen by voters. But not all of them are. And there's a sizable block of 20 percent of the delegates to the convention that are not chosen by voters, but are basically appointed by the Democratic National Committee. And these are existing officeholders or other, you know, people of importance inside the Democratic party.
I have seen this denounced as "medieval" and "undemocratic," etc. -- although, as almost all superdelegates are those officeholders, they "are actually chosen by voters."
The confusion of late that I see comes from folks who also never have nor would consider joining a party, often declare themselves as Independents, yet demand a say in the way that the parties run their organizing events -- aka primaries and caucuses -- for their party conventions. Hmmm.
By the way, I'm glad that you posted this, as I wanted to reply (but the thread filled) to the comment in the last thread that Sanders' campaign says that the aim is to win the nomination with the McGovern campaign as a model. That also shows a lack of understanding of how the Democratic Party runs, since then, exactly because of the McGovern campaign.
(Note: I worked for the McGovern campaign, and I still think that it was stolen by dirty tricks. But then, I also know who Henry Kissinger was. . . .) Parent
And in that regard, it's important to note that in 1972, only 27 of the 50 states had primaries or caucuses. The other 23 states, plus the U.S. territories and the District of Columbia, allowed party leaders to select the delegates, an easily corruptible process which lent itself to a lot of backroom deals and quid pro quos.
No doubt, George McGovern's campaign -- managed by Gary Hart -- was incredibly well-organized and disciplined with lots of highly motivated staff and volunteers, enough so that that McGovern won a number of key primaries in a crowded and hotly contested field of Democratic candidates that included 1968 nominee Hubert Humphrey. The big prizes were the California and New York primaries in June, winner-take-all states with 271 and 230 delegates up for grabs, respectively. By winning both, he effectively put the nomination out of reach of anyone else.
However, it must be noted that McGovern only received 25.3% of all votes cast in Democratic primaries and caucuses across the country, yet ultimately received the support of 1,729 delegates and thus cinched the nomination at the national convention in Miami in July 1972.
Sen. Humphrey actually finished first with 25.8% of the nationwide vote, yet he won the support of only 67 delegates. Sen. Henry "Scoop" Jackson received only 3.1% of the Democratic vote nationwide, yet finished second to McGovern in the delegate count with 525. Alabama Gov. George Wallace, who had been shot and crippled by a would-be assassin, finished third in both the popular vote and delegates.
Thus, there certainly were some very serious issues concerning the allocation of delegates per candidate by state. For example, Illinois had 153 delegates going to the convention in Miami, but only 65 of them were supposedly allocated by popular vote in the primary, and the other 88 were appointed by party leaders as unpledged.
In the Illinois primary itself, Sen. Edmund Muskie received 62.6% of the vote and Eugene McCarthy 36.3%, while McGovern received a scant 0.3%. Yet when delegates were actually allocated, Muskie received 52, McCarthy none, and McGovern 13! Those 88 unpledged delegates appointed by Chicago Mayor Richard Daley and other state party leaders subsequently pledged themselves to McGovern at the national convention.
So, the McGovern campaign certainly outhustled and outlasted all of its rivals, and in the process captured the overwhelming majority of convention delegates on the first ballot. But the same level of support for the nominee was never reciprocated by Democratic voters as a whole, which proved a disaster. And the party establishment, whose influence had been marginalized thanks to the change in rules after the 1968 fiasco, was definitely angered by the convention result.
Rather than clean up the party's act after 1968, the Democrats' redesign of the nomination process had actually made it even worse. The new system that had been put in place for the 1972 election was a thorough mishmash of state processes, and really coherent to only the relative handful of people who had rewritten the party rules -- which, not coincidentally, included George McGovern himself.
As a result, there were lots of unhappy Democrats, and a huge chunk of mainstream Democratic voters subsequently sat on their hands during the general election campaign, which knee-capped McGovern's efforts against the very well-funded campaign of President Richard Nixon. He never stood a chance from the very get-go.
And that very point is what renders the Nixon campaign's June 1972 break-in at DNC HQ at the Watergate Hotel & Office Complex Watergate so incredibly and inexplicably stupid in retrospect. McGovern posed no threat to Nixon that year, yet the president nevertheless sought to place his thumbs on the scales of an election which he was clearly going to win going away anyway.
And by allowing his campaign and his own paranoia to spin out of control like that, Nixon sowed the seeds of his own ultimate political destruction, which caused a lot of grief for everyone across the country before he finally went down.
So, if Bernie Sanders is modeling his campaign by channeling George McGovern's 1972 effort, that in and of itself is a very dubious proposition.
Aloha. Parent
Of course, so is remembering that McGovern headed the party commission that revamped the process, after 1968, for . . . 1972. Parent
Remember, the Canuck Letter, which destroyed Muskie's campaign, was created by such tricksters.
We'll probably never know everything they did.
But, long story short, they got to run against who they wanted to.
And beat him in 49 states. Parent
They are chosen for the office they ran for and won.
They are not chosen as delegates pledged to any particular candidate.
And that is a huge difference.
And not at all democratic. Parent
Now, let's see if you think that the regular delegates are elected . . . to anything.
See the difference?
(Probably not.) Parent
< a space href= place url > words you want highlighted < / a >
Best of luck. :) Parent
And I think the party will go far to prevent him from getting in. Who could they draft at this point? At which point he goes 3rd party I suppose. Parent
So, with Bernie they are a terrible idea. With Donald they are a great idea. Parent
A "superdelegate" or an "unpledged delegate" is a delegate to the Democratic National Convention or Republican National Convention that is seated automatically, based on their status as current (Republican and Democratic) or former (Democratic only) party leader or elected official. Other superdelegates are chosen during the primary season. Democratic superdelegates are free to support any candidate for the nomination. This contrasts with convention delegates that are selected based on the party primaries and caucuses in each U.S. state, in which voters choose among candidates for the party's presidential nomination.
However, the super-delegates offer a means for the parties to register their political assessments of the candidates that emerge from primary voting. For example, the Republican party presented Richard Nixon (twice), essentially vouching for him. His criminal behavior resulted in his resignation from office, but the Republican party should have paid a bigger price--and actually have gone the way of the Whigs. Parent
I mean seriously, they are dumb, dumb, dumb, but Trump kind proves why you might want adults stepping into the process.
That being said, the time to complain isn't when they become a problem, like the filibuster, it's only evil when whatever team is not benefiting from it. Change the rules when it doesn't matter, not in the middle of the game.
They are what they are, can we get past it. The notion that we are going to change it about as dumb as the SD's themselves. They aren't and it only comes across are whining.
It would be nice though if HRC supporters quit acting like the HRC supporters didn't want the exact same thing Sanders supporters want, 8 years ago. They didn't get it nor should will Sanders.
Also noted in 2008 the Super Delegates went out pretty close to the delegate totals, Obama got around 52% of the delegates and about 58% of the SD's. Skewed, but not ridiculously. Parent
That said, I agree the whining like the stupid MoveOn thing is beyond annoying. They certainly know it won't be changed this cycle and it only serves to taint the outcome. Which seems like their goal. Parent
The shocking thing about many Sanders supporters is that they are so unaware of this process. MoveOn has no excuse - they supported Obama in 2008, and they were plenty happen then, so THEY are the ones who are hypocrites. Parent
The popular vote was excruciatingly close. Less than 1% for Obama, and with Michigan, around the same in favor of Clinton.
Really, the caucuses were where Obama's campaign completely outmaneuvered Clinton. I think caucuses are by far the bigger issue, as simple cheating can work much better there, if you can get away with it. Parent
Best bet is one of them wins going away, and the only possibility of that happening is Clinton. Doubt she brings many of the BBros/Babes with her to the general, and she's a toss-up v Trump. Parent
The swipe at Clinton's 2008 supporters is a convenient memory loss about many reasons for anger, culminating in the DNC actions on May 31, 2008.
That said, back to the superd's: The current consternation, again, shows in the comments that I see elsewhere just how uninformed are too many, who think that the primaries and caucuses pick the parties' nominees.
Prepare for the uninformed to also be stunned if there is need to inform them that the popular vote in the general election also does not decide the presidency. Parent
And the primary votes of my state also were made moot -- and it still rankles with delegates then, whom I know -- by the DNC's pressure to call off the roll call, the culminating moment for which delegates await, every four years. They work hard for the opportunity to be a party delegate and pay their way to do so. Parent
And what does any of that prove???
People are pi$$ed inside both parties and if the Repubs start jacking with the rules they're toast. Parent
Tonight, we have the annual Democratic Dinner in downtown Denver. As usual, we will be there ... the speakers will be Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. The entourages should be most interesting. Speaking of caucuses & Superdelegate allocations, etc.: I fully expect to see the architect of understanding (and stacking) caucuses there with his own courtiers ... Gary Hart. As he usually does, he will be telling the fewer & fewer who court him everything he knows. (Golly, I have a bad attitude ... but then, just getting "ready" for the evening's contretemps and all.) Actually, I do believe in the need for revision as to process ... but, the pendulum rarely stops in the middle, does it? Parent
Preference polls, also, started swinging her way. I remember, "man on the street," type interviews on TV where those who had already voted for Obama were asked, "if you could vote today would you switch your vote to Hillary?" many claimed they would change their vote.
Hillary's momentum in the second part of that season, super-charged by the Michigan/Florida mess, was such that I began hearing the term, "Buyer's Remorse," more and more.
Now, I never held to the illusion that those things would give Hillary the nomination. It's just that that's when I learned what Super Delegates were all about. If, on top of Hillary's momentum, Obama's star dropping, and, anger at the Primary eliminations, one more shock occurred the outcome may have been different.
If, let's say, a major, previously hidden scandal about Obama was unearthed, making him (in the eyes of the S.D's) unelectable, they could have thrown their votes towards Hillary, giving her the Candidacy.
A lot of variable, and possibilities there, but, that 2008 Primary was a case where Super Delegates might have (rightfully) made a difference. Parent
But yah the Super delegates are the DEm party's firewall to stop a candidate they feel is not viable. Gives a whole new meaning to the term Democratic yes? Parent
So from that perspective it's unique to the Dems. Parent
Plus no ones going to drop out who can find a way to keep going for the very reason that Donald MUST BE STOPPED AND IM THE ONE TO DO IT.
Parent
South Carolina is expected to have 50 delegates at the 2016 Republican National Convention. Of this total, 21 will be district-level delegates (three for each of the state's seven congressional districts). South Carolina's district-level delegates will be allocated on a winner-take-all basis; the candidate who wins the plurality of the vote in a given congressional district will be allocated all three of that district's delegates.[4] Of the remaining 29 delegates, 26 will serve at-large. South Carolina's at-large delegates will be allocated on a winner-take-all basis; the candidate who wins the greatest number of votes statewide will receive all 26 of the state's at-large delegates. In addition, three national party leaders (identified on the chart below as RNC delegates) will serve as bound delegates to the Republican National Convention. The RNC delegates will be pledged to support the candidate who wins the South Carolina primary.[4]
Of the remaining 29 delegates, 26 will serve at-large. South Carolina's at-large delegates will be allocated on a winner-take-all basis; the candidate who wins the greatest number of votes statewide will receive all 26 of the state's at-large delegates. In addition, three national party leaders (identified on the chart below as RNC delegates) will serve as bound delegates to the Republican National Convention. The RNC delegates will be pledged to support the candidate who wins the South Carolina primary.[4]
Never.
If they do they will spend the next generation fending off every billionaire, multimillionaire and celebrity in creation.
They're hoping it happens naturally. But, if it doesn't, they'll find some other way to pull the rug out from under him.
But, frankly, he's very easy to beat if they'd just take him on. And there's still plenty of time to do that. Only a handful of delegates have been selected.
He's almost everything Republicans hate.
He's a morally corrupt, and literally corrupt, clown who's been cavorting with criminals and Democrats, and criminal Democrats, and God knows what else for all of his adult life.
Not mention flipping and flopping and flipping again on any and every issue.
If Republicans cannot be convinced not to vote for such a person. They aren't the Republicans I know and love. Parent
He's almost everything Republicans hate. He's a morally corrupt, and literally corrupt, clown who's been cavorting with criminals and Democrats, and criminal Democrats, and God knows what else for all of his adult life. Not mention flipping and flopping and flipping again on any and every issue.
Is Sanders level naïveté
I don't know f he will or won't. I think he will. But one question. If he keeps winning what exactly are they going t do to stop him?
If the pull some king of convention BS great for us. Half the party will stay home in Nov. But they won't. If you have not been hearing the establishment getting comfortable with Donald you simply have not been listening. Parent
He came in a weak second (almost third) in one state. And won a plurality in another.
Clinton, who was trounced on the other side, got more votes than him.
So he's no juggernaut.
To be precise 76% of Republicans voted against him in one state and 66% in another.
That's enough voters to have two people beat him in either state. I predicted it would happen in IA. And it almost did.
Plus, he's had extremely favorably press and lots of it. And next to zero vetting. That won't continue.
Finally, the party hates him. And the press thinks he's amusing. But they don't want him to be president. Parent
But a breakdown of recent Wall Street Journal/NBC News polling shows that Mr. Trump also has a likely base of support in those Southern states. And it comes with something of a surprise: Mr. Trump's likely strength can be detected by looking at Republican primary voters who live in counties with large African American and Hispanic populations. The celebrity businessman does particularly well in counties that the American Communities Project calls Minority Centers. Data from the last three polls show Mr. Trump has the support of 34% of Republican primary voters who live in those communities, the highest share seen in any of the seven county types that the communities project is studying for the 2016 campaign. Moreover, the analysis suggests that Mr. Trump has pockets of strength that could prove valuable in states, some of them beyond the South, that award delegates to the top vote-winner in each congressional district. Districts with a large minority population may not include large numbers of Republicans, but they award delegates, nonetheless. Winning those districts could yield Mr. Trump a sizeable cache of delegates in states such as South Carolina and California. The idea of Mr. Trump doing well in counties with large minority populations may seem counter-intuitive, but, remember, we're focusing on a specific set of voters that live in those places: Republican primary voters. With that group, we are focusing almost solely on white voters who live in those counties. Even in states with large minority populations, the Republican primary electorate is more than 90% white.
The celebrity businessman does particularly well in counties that the American Communities Project calls Minority Centers. Data from the last three polls show Mr. Trump has the support of 34% of Republican primary voters who live in those communities, the highest share seen in any of the seven county types that the communities project is studying for the 2016 campaign.
Moreover, the analysis suggests that Mr. Trump has pockets of strength that could prove valuable in states, some of them beyond the South, that award delegates to the top vote-winner in each congressional district. Districts with a large minority population may not include large numbers of Republicans, but they award delegates, nonetheless. Winning those districts could yield Mr. Trump a sizeable cache of delegates in states such as South Carolina and California.
The idea of Mr. Trump doing well in counties with large minority populations may seem counter-intuitive, but, remember, we're focusing on a specific set of voters that live in those places: Republican primary voters. With that group, we are focusing almost solely on white voters who live in those counties. Even in states with large minority populations, the Republican primary electorate is more than 90% white.
smott is right. Donald is going to romp the south
Did you think he was "accidentally" retweeting white supremacists? Parent
Sanders' mis-steps coming into SC may hurt him. Bad timing to call lack of leadership on Obama, and snipe at Lewis. Parent
There's always another thread. Parent
Those Latina and union fake endorsement dirty tricks pay off for Sanders perhaps? Parent
Those tests are culturally biased;) Parent
Joy Reid, anecdotal evidence
On her Twitter feed,
The generational divide over Clinton v Sanders is real among AAs. And the age cutoff we've seen in Columbia SC is not 30, it's closer to 50.
http://tinyurl.com/znoju2y
Given the voting histories of the two groups I will take the old folks every time.
And it not just her. It's the whole network. Todd just had an AA Sanders supporter on who in response to withering quotes from some members of the CBC responded that voters are not going to fall for the "okeydoke"
I tried googling that term. It didn't help much so I don't know exactly what she was talking about but it sounded distinctly unflattering to CBC members.
Chuck is very concerned about the fairness of suoerdelegates. A Clinton supporter just pointed out he didn't remember him being concerned in 2008. Parent
All the breathless discussion focuses on the people that MIGHT turn out, as opposed to the people that historically DO turn out. Parent
2nd Person: Okie Dokie Parent
okey doke someone whose been tricked or duped a trick someone who was slipped something i.e.drugs or alcohol "Man that okey doke was easy prey, we got his money and his car from him without him even realizing." "They played an okey doke on you, shad"
okey doke
My point was she was not very clear on how she imagined the members of the CBC were attempting "the okey doke" Or what motive they might have for fooling or tricking them beyond subverting her wishes that they support Bernie Sanders. Parent
The Sanders supporter just kept babbling on and on and they tried and tried to get him to stop and eventually just cut his mic and left him talking to himself and went to the Clinton supporter.
I just though, damn, if these are the front lines of the "revolution"........... I don't even know how to finish that. Parent
Weird timing - Friday might of a holiday weekend.
mysite
It hasn't happened here but it's already policy in Japan, the EU, Switzerland and Sweden. Central banks are desperate to push money out of Central Bank refuges and into the economies. That's the theory, anyway.
The Hill. Not linking! Hope that's ok.
Think Ted might be tonight's piñata
(And presumably then give it to _________.) Parent
I expect them to be all over Ted about the push polls and other unchristian dirty tricks. Parent
One part hurray-for-our-side White Man's Burdenism, one part world history according to the New York Times, and one part fumbling HR talking points equals the world's biggest self-serving bullsh*t souffle. With no liberty, little justice, cheap labor, and minimal environmental regulations for all..
Primarily, what China is is the North Korea that lines (some of) our pockets, the way the terror-sponsoring Saudi Arabia is the "terror-sponsoring" Iran that lines our pockets..
Running interference for bs on wheels doesn't suit you folks Parent
Although, I may have missed something or lot what with --the bs on wheels, the souffle, running interference, White Man's Burdenism, and, of course, the pungent cozying up to Kissinger's nether regions. But, this is not to be considered a criticism, for I, too, try to avoid the cliche like the plague.
So here goes: Kissinger is evil, hence his efforts in China are evil, China is evil, Clinton takes some advise from Kissinger, Clinton and China are both evil. Evil, for purposes of this discussion is what lines some of our pockets the way the terror sponsoring Saudis is the terror sponsoring Iran than lines our pockets.
And, my comment that I prefer the imagery of Kissinger fleeing a European hotel in hot pursuit by Spanish prosecutors, should be interpreted as my fondness toward him.
So, are you the one that is on Sander's unannounced list of foreign policy experts? If so, you did advise, unlike the Republican candidate, to engage with the living, rather than the dead, king of Jordan. And, I am grateful for your service. Parent
If had meant "evil", believe me, I would've said evil.
I also don't particulary "hate" anyone -- or hate America, or China, in case you're inclined to there. Feel free to say "CDS" all you want though; for me it's become a goofy form of insider-jargon scientologists use with each other to designate who's in and who's out.
I would say fatally flawed. Except for Kissinger, who has exhibited the earmarks over time of being evil right down to his socks, much as I hate to use that word..
And Hillary, I'm sorry to say, is more than a little divorced from reality, as her utterly tone-deaf public sucking up to GS made plain and her courting of the likes of Kissinger makes even more plain. For anyone with eyes to see. Parent
At best she was going for "see even Repubs think I did a good job as SOS" but the point everybody is getting instead, is that the guy is a war criminal and any campaign not as stunningly tone-deaf as Clinton's would have distanced themselves?
Really dumb move. That with Albright and Steinem plus the NH shellacking makes it a horrible week. She bounced back well with the debate. But NV looms. And SC is do or die. Parent
Apparently they frequently "see each other socially" -- which must mean that K has been completely misunderstood and unjustly made a pariah by the misogynist left or something..
Of course she had to try to preemptively reference/spin their relationship. It was going to come up at some point.. Parent
Point is, she's tone deaf for mentioning it at all, cozy or not.
And if that was a pre-emotive spin, Clinton failed rather spectacularly.
Tone deaf. Parent
Plus Sanders brought it up in another one of his ludicrously "canned" and substanceless talking points. Parent
Part of an over-arching theme of mis-representation of suppor that doesn't exist. Or fraud, if you will.
I have not seen any apologies from the campaign for this, or for the newspaper endorsement mis-representation, or the AARP, or League of Conservation voters, or American Legion. There may be more, and worse, I believe in the case of at least one of the organizations that supposedly endorsed Sanders, had in fact endorsed Clinton instead.
League of Conservation Voters issued a Cease and Decist.
It really looks like a pattern of dirty tricks, and does the media call it out? Nope, they slam Bubba for having the temerity to mention it.
I think we will have a very close race in Nevada at least in part due to this (and caucuses are always dangerous), potentially giving Sanders a lot of momentum into SC. Parent
We are back to the way primaries used to be where momentum means nothing in the next state. Do you think voters in NH are really going to be able to tell voters in SC who to vote for? Parent
However, 538 gave it the highest weight if you check their site. All other polls which are generally Clinton +30 or more, have been given 0 weight, even one from this week.
Which tells me Nate Silver and his stat boys know more they are letting on. Therefore I suspect a close Nevada and possibly a Sanders win. And the horse race wanted by everybody. But Clinton of course. Parent
Forgive me if I'm waiting and seeing on this one. Parent
I guess we'll find out how much Reid can keep things on the straight and narrow. Parent
I wonder if she would go there now. Parent
And yes, 538's weighting of polls can be weird, when polls are few and far between for a state. The site would do better to say, as it did until that first poll in eons for NV, that 538 is just not going to say anything at all, other than to just post the poll -- and especially when NV has a caucus that is unlike most others. Parent
I've no idea how Nate weights these things. The Dec poll is weighted 0.00.
It's kind of impossible to poll/weight caucuses anyway. Where a few hundred people turn a whole state. Or a locked door, or a stolen packet or a forged sign in sheet does the same.
I hate caucuses. Can you tell LOL?? Parent
http://tinyurl.com/jh5v5kk
As of last week, the Clinton campaign had only two campaign offices in South Carolina: .... The Sanders campaign, meanwhile, had 240 staffers on the ground as of last week - 80 percent of them African-American - spread across 10 offices statewide. "That's real infrastructure," said one veteran South Carolina political consultant who was involved in the 2008 effort to elect Barack Obama and who spoke on background. The Sanders campaign is using both traditional and innovative strategies to reach voters, including "Bernie Bingo" for seniors who get a ride to the polls after enjoying the board game with the youthful canvassers. Voters in South Carolina have been able to vote early, absentee or in person since January 1, and the Sanders campaign is taking full advantage before the end of early voting for Democrats on February 26.
The Sanders campaign, meanwhile, had 240 staffers on the ground as of last week - 80 percent of them African-American - spread across 10 offices statewide.
"That's real infrastructure," said one veteran South Carolina political consultant who was involved in the 2008 effort to elect Barack Obama and who spoke on background.
The Sanders campaign is using both traditional and innovative strategies to reach voters, including "Bernie Bingo" for seniors who get a ride to the polls after enjoying the board game with the youthful canvassers. Voters in South Carolina have been able to vote early, absentee or in person since January 1, and the Sanders campaign is taking full advantage before the end of early voting for Democrats on February 26.
Tell you what, I will bet you Hillary not only win SC but wins it by double digits. Parent
Hillary is going to win SC.
MSNBC and Joy Reid are going to spread the bullsh!t as thick as they can. For as long as they can. What's new? Parent
But those are 3 weeks old, prior to the New Hampshire Clinton debacle,
I gather the numbers are quite different now.
And with Nevada in between, another opportunity to dent the inevitability narrative. Parent
And Bernie is continually insulting African American voters. Really if you want to find out what is going on in SC you could read the local papers. ABC news reported that she was a resounding success with voters in SC.
Bernie has pretty much given up on SC. Parent
However, they must have given him a new copy. Yesterday, he said that Mrs. Clinton is excellent in all her debates, better than Sanders, but, somehow, he sometimes feels that she does not want to be there. No tingle up his leg, it seems.
In an article in the Sanders-oriented Salon, Elias Isquith, offers his concern that Senator Sanders is in jeopardy of having the media turn on him, losing some of the media's (relatively) soft touch. His "you are not in the WH yet," suggests a too quick to anger--angry and loud, yes, but it needs to be in a lovably earnest way.
And, his mass incarceration promise came in for major hand-wringing that the press may decide that Sanders is not a cranky, lovable socialist grandpa, but one who gives promises that are not ambitious, but, rather, demagogic. Parent
Can The Bern get the young black vote out?
African Americans support former Secretary of State Clinton by more than a 3-to-1 margin nationwide, but among young blacks 18 to 29 years old, that margin shrinks to 46 percent for Clinton versus 33 percent for Sanders, according to recent Reuters/Ipsos polling. African Americans overwhelmingly back Democrats, but opinion polls in the run-up to the Nov. 8 presidential election show younger blacks more apt to reject an establishment candidate. They seem less inclined than their parents to reward Clinton for the outreach of her husband, former President Bill Clinton, and more drawn to Sanders' outspoken views on reducing income inequality, cracking down on Wall Street, and cutting the cost of college.
African Americans overwhelmingly back Democrats, but opinion polls in the run-up to the Nov. 8 presidential election show younger blacks more apt to reject an establishment candidate. They seem less inclined than their parents to reward Clinton for the outreach of her husband, former President Bill Clinton, and more drawn to Sanders' outspoken views on reducing income inequality, cracking down on Wall Street, and cutting the cost of college.
Uh huh Parent
Is SC proportional or winner take all?
If the latter, Sanders may as well bag it and focus on NV, but I have to check, thought it was proportional and would behoove him to go for it as much as he can....? Parent
And apparently whoever reported that missed the disastrous event yesterday with Sanders and African Americans. They kept asking him questions that concerned them and he kept spouting Wall Street is the problem. Parent
Maybe he has Mark Penn advising him though lol!.... Parent
Results
I'd take the results seriously, which in this case means wait and see if this is an outlier or not. Also, note:
Among those who have participated in the Democratic caucus before, Clinton leads by 11 points, while first-time caucusgoers support Sanders by six points.
It's going to be close, like Iowa, I would guess.
I'm not comfortable with stale SC polls showing Clinton up 30 points. It's going to be closer than that and there is still plenty of time to screw things up. Or as I say to my spouse, the only thing that can stop Hillary Clinton from becoming president is Hillary Clinton and we'll just have to hope she doesn't blow it. Parent
Let me put it differently: I hope Clinton's campaign isn't comfortable. I hope she campaigns like she's 30 points behind, as the cliche goes. Parent
But yeah, I agree campaign like you're 30 points down. Parent
Clinton and her surrogates can surely shoot her own foot off, no doubt, and have done so the last week in grand style.
But I still say the press has the biggest megaphone and is her biggest obstacle.
They just simply loathe her, and that's a powerful pill when you've got a nationwide loudspeaker. Parent
This reminds me of 2000 where the press was fluffing George W. Bush and trashing Al Gore and look what it got us? Their fluffing and not questioning Bush brought a total disaster on the country. Parent
What I'm talking about.
This is our famously free press. Parent
...so they could have their fun, poke at Clinton who they hate, and give Trump as much air time as he could suck up.
And now, after stirring the sh*t , the press is (maybe) realizing it isn't fun and games anymore. And we could seriously wind up with a President Trump. Neither Sanders nor Clinton polls well against him nationally, at best it seems a toss-up at this point , and there really seems no one to derail The Donald beyond a complete Brokered Convention Goat F*ck.
So here we are.
You'd think after cheerleading us into a war that killed a million or so people and spawned ISIS, rags like the NYT would be less likely to stir the pot again, but no.
Seriously f*** them. Parent
Hillary's Woman Problem - Politico Politico > magazine > story > 2016/02 1 day ago - If she were black, or gay, or poor--as well as female, some young liberals might be more inclined to vote for her. .
That was humor I believe.
However the person who suggested idiot Millennials should vote for Hillary if she was black or poor or gay was not joking . And has not apologized. Parent
Untrue? Without substance? Not worthy of discussion and delving into at the present time?
..delivered without the sort of verve you 'd expect from someone who studied the Method under Lee Strasberg or Stella Adler?
I mean seriously, why not do two separate operations? One for each that could not so easily be traced back?
Because he's not doing it. Donald is doing it to frame him and set him up for tonight. After all he was caught red handed rat fu@king Carson in Iowa so Carson is already pissed. Now Donald and Marco can be indignant too.
Ted might have a bad night.
"not a single issue candidate" is a great, non wonky summation of Hillary's comprehensive qualifications while also subtly side swiping Bernie's one-note tune.
Good for her. Parent
Cheers.
Breyer is 77
And Ginsberg is 82
As far as "contributing to the Trump juggernaut meme"
How about not "contributing to Trump head in the sand denial meme"?
Maybe he just doesn't want the headache.
I don't know enough about Senate rules to have an opinion.
Anyone?