Hillary Wins Nevada Caucuses

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2016
Posted on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 07:59:13 PM EST
Tags: Hillary Clinton, Nevada, 2016 (all tags)

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Hillary Clinton bested Bernie Sanders today in the Nevada Democratic caucuses. As of now,
Hillary has 52.5% to Bernies 47.4% with 86% of the vote in. The LA Times reports Bernie won the northern Nevada counties that Obama took in 2008, while the Washington Post says her support among African-Americans was very strong, and Bernie did pretty well among Latinos.

But according to preliminary entrance polls reported by CNN, she won among black Democrats by a whopping 76 percent to 22 percent. African Americans made up 13 percent of the electorate, according to the entrance poll, while 19 percent were Hispanic and 59 percent were white. Sanders held an eight-point edge among Hispanic voters, who accounted for roughly 1 in 5 caucus-goers, and the two candidates split white voters about evenly.

The LA Times also says Hillary won the casino vote. The Caesar's precinct chair says the vote was 190 for Hillary and 81 for Sanders. More on this from the Wall St. Journal. Here's a photo of Bill in the Caesar's ballroom at caucus time: [More...]

Update: The LA Times says 75% of Nevadans live in Clark County (Las Vegas. Hillary won Clark County.)

Entrance polling:

Clinton was backed by a majority of women, college-educated voters, those with annual incomes over $100,000, moderates, voters aged 45 and older and non-white voters. Sanders did best with men, voters under 45 and those less affluent and educated.

Eva Longoria and America Ferrera were in Las Vegas yesterday stumping with Hillary and Bill.

Interesting that Joe Trippi, Howard Kurtz and Juan Williams are now Fox News contributors. They are on Hannity's show now. Hannity is saying that Trump's kids soften his image. Usually I would agree with that, but I did a double take on Ivanka tonight. She is very pretty, but tonight, her makeup was so garish I thought it was a sendup of a Barbie doll. She looks awful wearing deep red lipstick -- she needs to go back to nudes and pinks. If you do a google search of her images, she almost always wears a neutral lip color. What happened? She stood out like a fire engine on that stage tonight.

< Trump Takes South Carolina | Jeb Bush Drops Out >

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Hillary Wins Nevada Caucuses | 51 comments (51 topical)

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They say (5.00 / 1) (#2)
by CaptHowdy on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 08:17:01 PM EST

She has Harry to thank for that casino vote.

He's the only one ... (none / 0) (#3)
by Robot Porter on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 08:21:27 PM EST

who understands the voters in that crazy state.

So I believe it.


: Reid has (5.00 / 1) (#27)
by BackFromOhio on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 10:23:58 AM EST

not been a Hilary supporter - in 2008, and doubtfully now, as he remained "neutral." I think his influence on the casino vote is media's way of saying she is weak and cannot take credit for her own win.

Hillary is the only ... (5.00 / 1) (#19)
by Robot Porter on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 11:36:18 PM EST

person in this race who knows how to give a primary victory speech.

It's not supposed to be a cohesive speech that people listen to in total.

You thank supporters and give TV and radio a couple of good bytes that they can clip.

Reince Priebus (5.00 / 1) (#22)
by Ga6thDem on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 06:13:35 AM EST

tweeting about how Hillary was still "struggling". LOL. Now we know where the media gets their talking points from. And a reality show star from NYC just completely wiped out everybody in SC and I laughed and laughed and laughed at Priebus.

Hookers (5.00 / 1) (#23)
by Mr Natural on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 08:24:44 AM EST

4 Hillary.

Years ago, on an ABC (5.00 / 3) (#34)
by fishcamp on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 12:10:30 PM EST

American Sportsman desert bighorn sheep relocation film, we captured the sheep near the shore of Lake Mead, outside of Las Vegas. After trucking them up to Carson City to release them, we found ourselves a few hundred feet from the Bunny Ranch. The girls were out waving at us while the sheep ran off at about fifty miles per hour. Yes I got the shot, but some of the cameramen were looking at the girls when the wrangler opened the truck doors. Tom Harmon was the star guest with us. That show was the funniest one I ever worked.


: That's a great story (none / 0) (#39)
by jimakaPPJ on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 01:05:35 PM EST

And I bet you, like I, only read Playboy for the articles.
;-)

The press were told ... (none / 0) (#1)
by Robot Porter on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 08:09:50 PM EST

she wouldn't speak to her supporters tonight. Bill would. She was flying onto Texas.

Wonder if she actually thought she was going to lose? Or was she playing mind games with the Sanders team? Or the press?

Of course, when she won, she stayed and gave a victory speech.

Good one too.

She's (5.00 / 1) (#4)
by Ga6thDem on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 08:40:21 PM EST

always doing that kind of stuff to throw Sanders off. When she met with ministers in Philadelphia Bernie was screaming about her having a fundraiser with rich donors.


Bill also really got ... (none / 0) (#5)
by Robot Porter on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 08:41:53 PM EST

in Bernie's head when he compared Sander's movement to the Tea Party.


Which is really interesting (5.00 / 2) (#6)
by CaptHowdy on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 08:44:52 PM EST

I remember comments here in these threads for years to the effect of "what we need is a left version of the tea party"

Be careful what you wish for.

The comparison seem pretty obvious to me and I'm not sure why they find it insulting.


Because Bernie knows his ... (none / 0) (#7)
by Robot Porter on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 08:51:34 PM EST

history.

People viewed as extremists are almost never nominated for president.


and if nominated they (5.00 / 2) (#11)
by Jeralyn on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 09:10:50 PM EST

won't win. I just wrote in a post about Jeb dropping out that this country is not about to elect an evangelical, radical right candidate as President. Which is why I doubt that Rubio or Cruz have no chance of even getting the nomination.

I think Sanders is responsible for his image as an extremist. In trying to present himself as more left than other Democrats, the label was inevitable.

He might be better off if he accepted that he was just politics as usual.


: The repainted Rubio (5.00 / 1) (#45)
by christinep on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 04:56:05 PM EST

My biggest concern about the erstwhile pretzel, Rubio, is that the general election audience may not be "treated" to the real right-winger that is Rubio. Should he & his new BFF <The Republican Establishment> scratch through to the bruised nomination, I suspect the program is to re-introduce him as the carrier-of-the-new-generation-torch. Once again, we will see pretty boy with pretty family who talks earnestly of a rejuvenated America la la la. If the Repub programmers could repaint him as the face of the future, he could be a good media competitor during the relatively short general election run. Of course, there are all the recordings of his real Tea Party days of not so long ago.

It actually (none / 0) (#9)
by Ga6thDem on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 08:55:15 PM EST

seemed to pretty obvious to me too. And there is a lot of things that are obviously the same. It's basically IMO white straight males who feel threatened or left behind. Tea partiers are threatened by the browning of America. Bernie supporters seem to be threatened to some extent by women and by Wall Street.

You know, I don't know if it is the same where you are but the whole Wall Street stuff pretty much falls on deaf ears here because we have people that are worried about jobs, hospitals closing etc.


: I think people forget that the Bush economy (5.00 / 1) (#18)
by ruffian on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 11:10:07 PM EST

Was in the toilet long before the collapse. Or if they are young maybe they think the troubles started in 2008. Job losses and a health care system that was bankrupting people were huge contributors to people not being able to pay the mortgages that the Wall Street speculation had piped into the system. all aspects of the economy need to be addressed.

: Why shouldn't people feel threatened (none / 0) (#14)
by jondee on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 09:46:31 PM EST

by Wall Street? The entire economy went in the sh*tter a few years back to a large extent because of Wall Street.
To say that people who don't Clinton support are anti-woman is about as legitimate as saying the people who didn't support Obama were racists and that the people who didn't support Bush were against God and Country.

Bill getting into someone else's head (none / 0) (#24)
by jondee on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 10:03:25 AM EST

for once. If that isn't an instance of significant role-reversal, I don't know what is.

All hysteria aside and all policy specifics considered, in reality, Bernie is about as much "like" the Tea Party as Hillary is like Rubio, Bibi Netanyahu, and her loathsome mentor Napalm Henry.


I think I see the problem (5.00 / 1) (#25)
by CaptHowdy on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 10:21:50 AM EST

I believe the point was not that Bernie is like the tea party but that Bernies supporters are like the tea party.

The tea Perry is the right of the right. They are largely the left of the left. Why is that confusing.


The left of the left I don't even buy (none / 0) (#30)
by jondee on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 10:32:02 AM EST

Other than the fact that Sanders openly calls himself a socialist, most of his specific policy positions aren't that different from those advocated by a thirties FDR democrat.

Bernies are a dime a dozen in Europe.

I guess he's the left of the left here in the U.S; where we had it beaten into our heads in the nineties that the Clintons were dangerous radicals..


Well, yeah (5.00 / 1) (#31)
by CaptHowdy on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 10:34:21 AM EST

We are, you know, kind of IN the US.


Also.. (none / 0) (#32)
by jondee on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 10:43:03 AM EST

his supporters are like the Tea Party..

You mean, generally unreflective, un-self critical, and not privileged with the benefits of a significant amount formal education? (not to name call or anything)

That comparison don't hold no f*ckin' water neither.

They are like the TP (5.00 / 2) (#48)
by smott on Mon Feb 22, 2016 at 06:16:18 AM EST

In their insistence on purity.
That's a deep similarity.


: Bingo (none / 0) (#49)
by FlJoe on Mon Feb 22, 2016 at 09:20:59 AM EST

to most of them anybody one inch to the right of Bernie is a complete corporate sellout, period.

Different view (none / 0) (#26)
by BackFromOhio on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 10:22:15 AM EST

I wonder if the Clinton campaign needs to take shots at Sanders like this; all indications are that Hilary will win in SC and on Super Tuesday very comfortably. Her campaign is reacting as though the race is close. And, by taking shots like these, her campaign may be making it difficult for Sanders supporters to get behind her should she win the nomination. I'd hate to see the rift between Sanders & Clinton supporters get as ugly as the 2008 rift.


When this was said (5.00 / 3) (#29)
by CaptHowdy on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 10:26:11 AM EST

NV was in doubt. And a loss there would have resulted in Hillary being buried in obits.

This is a new day. I would expect "attacks" on Bernie to dissappear entirely. As far as his delicate supporters, Hillary and Bill have been savaged and no one ever wondered if Hillary supporters would vote for Bernie.

Politics ain't beanbag.


: Agree, generally, Capt. (none / 0) (#46)
by christinep on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 05:24:48 PM EST

But, I do expect and support a bit more hardball from HRC--should it be necessary--to avoid underestimating a committed political opponent in the weeks leading up to and through mid-March.
It is nice, for now, to have the press acquiescing to the reality of a favorable narrative. While I'd expect the strength that comes from success to increase, even, if all goes well during the first few weeks of March ...well, it is still a ways to go.
My personal wish in the early March timeframe is that my state of Colorado will give the majority of its caucus numbers to HRC on March 1. That will be tough in the climate of Colorado ... Bill Clinton has just been in the Colorado Springs area after Nevada; probably to underscore the needs of military families in an area of Colorado with significant military votes in conjunction with Fort Carson, AFA, & military retirees. Daughter Chelsea was hitting the campuses at CU & DU last week on her way to Nevada. HRC was here a week ago for the Annual Democratic Dinner and other events. But, Sanders & Co are also spending time here criss-crossing the state.
It certainly appears that HRC continues to be in good position for the big majority of March 1 states. That position should improve as well in the coming days in view of the Nevada success, with it's narrative. Yet, in addition to Vermont & Oklahoma, March 1 includes Minnesota (a caucus state) and Massachusetts (a Sanders-friendly New England state.) Speaking of Michigan: Husband & I wondered today what Senator Warren would do ... that could get interesting as time goes along and perching on a fence gets chilly.

I think she does this ... (none / 0) (#40)
by FreakyBeaky on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 01:09:28 PM EST

... to throw off the press. Not a lot of love lost there.


Data on Latina/o vote scrutinized (none / 0) (#8)
by Towanda on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 08:52:17 PM EST

at 538, with doubters that the data are correct. Just doesn't compute with overall data, the number-crunchers say. And if it's from entrance/exit polls, those data keep being adjusted, anyway.

Was wondering how she managed to win ... (5.00 / 2) (#15)
by FreakyBeaky on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 10:13:03 PM EST

... while losing almost every demographic category. Uhhh, maybe she didn't lose them all ... ? :)


Mrs. Clinton won amongst women by ... (5.00 / 1) (#21)
by Donald from Hawaii on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 02:11:08 AM EST

... a 57-41% margin.


: That would do it. <n/t> (none / 0) (#41)
by FreakyBeaky on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 01:11:15 PM EST

Jeff Greenfield questioned (5.00 / 1) (#28)
by BackFromOhio on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 10:25:19 AM EST

validity of "entrance polls" on Latino vote -- a little while ago on CNN, pointing out that she won the precincts known to be heavily Latino.


I think they (none / 0) (#10)
by Ga6thDem on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 08:56:55 PM EST

are entrance polls where the information is coming from which I think are much less reliable than exit polls.


Seems like entrance polls would be (5.00 / 1) (#50)
by ruffian on Mon Feb 22, 2016 at 09:59:17 AM EST

especially unreliable in a caucus situation where the process is geared toward influencing people to pick a side.


: Yes (5.00 / 2) (#51)
by Ga6thDem on Mon Feb 22, 2016 at 10:46:16 AM EST

well as more information has come out it ends up that Sanders lost the Hispanic vote by something close to 20%.

HRC won very strongly in Clark County (none / 0) (#47)
by christinep on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 05:42:44 PM EST

That county's mainstay, Las Vegas, is the most diverse in the state. In Las Vegas, HRC won big in the casinos and in other areas that include active Latino voters. Clearly, her win received great impetus from the African-American vote per precinct analysis ... overwhelming at 78%; but, equally clearly, the numbers that allowed HRC to accomplish a solid win in Nevada had to have emanated from big precincts with substantial (maybe even yuuuge) Latino support.

The reason for the supposed uncertainty about the Latino vote distribution is really found in the present & past entrance/exit polling numbers as to Latino votes. In reading around today, that conclusion seems to be supported by Nate Cohn (NYT) and others familiar with the difficulties so often seen in polling Latinos ... especially, in Las Vegas.

For some reason, Mr. Sanders wants to continue to push the meme that he won the Latino vote in Nevada. In view of the actual bottom-line numbers, many of us doubt it. Then, Sanders has a reason to keep saying that, I suppose.


Not going there (none / 0) (#13)
by CaptHowdy on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 09:31:49 PM EST

Nope. Not going there.

: that comment was deleted (none / 0) (#16)
by Jeralyn on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 10:16:00 PM EST

for name calling and personal attacks -- it's not appropriate here.

The Latino vote entering poll cannot be right. (none / 0) (#17)
by AX10 on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 10:18:11 PM EST

If she is winning, she had to have taken their vote, even narrowly.
I do agree with the posters above that Bill Clinton's tea party comparison set off Bernie.
Extremists do NOT win the Presidency.

According to the Nevada Democrats, ... (none / 0) (#20)
by Donald from Hawaii on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 02:07:51 AM EST

... Hillary Clinton took Las Vegas / Clark County by a very comfortable margin of 11%, which was decisive. Per the latest U.S. Census figures, the current population of the Las Vegas metropolitan area is 2,027,868 and the population of Nevada is 2,839,099, so greater Las Vegas is home to 71% of all state residents. Sen. Sanders would have had to win the rest of Nevada by a nearly 3-1 margin to have offset Mrs. Clinton's cushion in the southern part of the state.

That said, the Sanders campaign acquitted itself well overall. They evidently did a great job in the Reno / Lake Tahoe / Carson City region. But they were overmatched in Las Vegas, where the Clinton campaign had a six-month head start.

Mrs. Clinton's people were thoroughly organized in Clark County and had placed five to six volunteers in every precinct to drive the vote. Sen. Sanders won only one precinct, out west of Vegas in the desert town of Pahrump near the California state line -- and that was only by one vote, 30-29. In the city itself, and especially along the Strip, he got throttled.

Aloha.

Classic media hypocrisy ... (none / 0) (#33)
by Robot Porter on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 11:41:55 AM EST

on one of the morning shows round tables about Republicans.

"We've been in the race for months. Everyone knows everything about the Republican field there's no information that could shake up this race."

Moving to the Democrats:

"There are more of Hillary's emails to be released. That could really shake up this race."

(Those weren't verbatim. But the general drift.)

The exact opposite is true.

The public knows next to nothing about the Republican field. Especially Trump. But also Rubio, Cruz, and Kasich.

And Hillary's emails are of zero interest to anyone outside the media and people who will never vote for her.

Well (none / 0) (#35)
by Ga6thDem on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 12:20:33 PM EST

I would say people know a lot about Trump because he's been a public figure for a long time. But yeah, no one knows much about the rest of them.


: I posted a few facts in ... (none / 0) (#36)
by Robot Porter on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 12:27:23 PM EST

here about him last week that people didn't know.
And you guys all follow this stuff intensely.
If you people don't know it. Trust me, 99.9% of the public doesn't know it.
And that's just the public domain stuff. God knows what Clinton's oppo team has. Or good reporter could get with some leg work.

Yes, much is yet (none / 0) (#37)
by KeysDan on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 12:45:49 PM EST

to be known about the Republican candidates. For example, the robot behavior of Rubio was there for all to see and be ridiculed, even by the Simpsons, but the potential seriousness of the condition--panic disorder, has not been explored. And, some of Rubio's foibles have been unearthed, such as his spend-thrift ways, friendship with David Rivera and the matter of his misuse of a credit card. However, there is more to learn, some of it might be irrelevant, such as foam parties and the circumstances of arrest at age 19, but for his current positions and holiness posturing.


And I doubt most ... (none / 0) (#38)
by Robot Porter on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 01:03:53 PM EST

people know about Mr. Roboto's "patron" billionaire Norman Brahmin who has funded most of the Roboto family's personal and professional life.

There are the appearance of some quid pro quos. But why is he doing this? What does he really want? And what kind of influence will he have on Mr. Roboto if he becomes president?

Is Brahmin the one pulling Mr. Roboto's levers?


About Norman Braman: (5.00 / 1) (#42)
by Mr Natural on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 01:19:05 PM EST

This man, Mr. Rubio said in effusive remarks in 2008, was no ordinary billionaire, hoarding his cash or using it to pursue selfish passions.
"He's used it," Mr. Rubio said, "to enrich the lives of so many people whose names you will never know." As it turned out, one of the people enriched was Mr. Rubio himself. - New York Times

NYT: Billionaire Lifts Marco Rubio, Politically and Personally

wikipedia

LA Times: PRO FOOTBALL : Eagle Owner Was No Brahmin

Digital Dealer: Interview with Norman Braman - Owner of Braman Enterprises


Sounds like Foxcatcher (none / 0) (#43)
by jondee on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 01:52:07 PM EST

with Bramin as John E du Pont and Rubio as one of the wrestlers.


: Yup ... (none / 0) (#44)
by Robot Porter on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 02:47:49 PM EST

good comparison.

Another NV delegate for Clinton (none / 0) (#52)
by Towanda on Mon Feb 22, 2016 at 06:01:41 PM EST

in final tally: 20-15.

That puts the tally to date of pledged delegates from three primaries and caucuses at 52-51.

Sanders supporters have been saying it's a tie at 51-51 and will be upset by this -- if they (and media) do not realize that it's still, for the two caucuses, a "delegate equivalent" tally. Only county delegates have been allocated, and they still have to head to their state conventions for the final round.