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Jeb Bush Drops Out

Jeb Bush suspended his campaign tonight following his dismal performance in South Carolina.

Jeb blew through $150 million. He had the largest war chest of any Republican. His campaign was an epic fail. Whose fault is it? Those who encouraged him to run, those who ran his campaign, or the boring Jeb himself?

The TV coverage tonight is all about South Carolina, there's very little about Nevada.

I could only stand to watch under a minute each of Rubio and Cruz' speeches. I think they will be irrelevant after the southern states are done. Republicans in the big states like New York and California will figure out that Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio or any evangelical is unelectable in November against any Democrat. This country is just not going to elect a radical right extremist as President. [More...]

Update: Here's James Corden on Jeb Bush's new gun and contacts earlier in the week.
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  • Display: Sort:
    I don't think any of ... (5.00 / 1) (#6)
    by Robot Porter on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 09:50:11 PM EST
    the Republican candidates are electable in the general. As things stand today.

    Maybe Kasich. But there's lots of file footage of him acting like a loon.

    Personally, I think Trump is an actual Fascist. So he's the most extreme.

    If Hillary keeps her focus, she can be the first Democrat to score a genuine landslide since LBJ.  

    I'm talking forty states or more.

    I know you have a (none / 0) (#7)
    by CaptHowdy on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 09:56:43 PM EST
    "Trump thing" but the fact is there is a lot of evidence that Donald is considerably less extreme.  Certainly than Cruz.   The Republican Party even understands this.  And Marcos abortion position alone disqualifies him from being a serious presidential candidate.

    IMO you have got it backwards. Not only is Trump less extreme he would be the greatest threat of the three because he is.

    Yeah, I know.  You disagree.  I got that.

    Parent

    The thing about Trump ... (5.00 / 1) (#9)
    by FreakyBeaky on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 10:04:53 PM EST
    ... is nobody has any idea what kind of a general election candidate he would make. His appeal cuts across all the usual categories. So does his lack of appeal. It's never been done before, so who knows what might happen. That might make him the strongest R general election candidate by default.

    He's interesting. That's for sure.

    Parent

    That's exactly right (5.00 / 1) (#12)
    by CaptHowdy on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 10:08:22 PM EST
    He has a crossover appeal, he absolutely does, that, um, many here do not understand.

    It's true there are republicans who would vote against him.   It is equally true there are democrats and indies who would vote for him.

    It's as you said.  Very unpredictable. As opposed to the other two.  Who in my opinion would be easily defeated.

    Parent

    There's so much public domain ... (none / 0) (#13)
    by Robot Porter on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 10:10:37 PM EST
    oppo on him. You could start a Cable channel and never run out of material.

    And, god knows, what the Clinton people have.

    Hillary isn't crazy about attacking other Dems. But she has no problem when it comes to Republicans.

    Parent

    Did you imagine I said Hillary would not win? (none / 0) (#16)
    by CaptHowdy on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 10:13:56 PM EST
    I did not.   I believe she would.  But it would be close and it would be ugly.

    Parent
    The only thing I can see him doing ... (none / 0) (#20)
    by Robot Porter on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 10:33:08 PM EST
    that another candidate wouldn't. Is he'll bring up all the crazy rumors. Vince Foster and worse.

    I don't see how that helps him. He already has the lunatic fringe. And that's gotten him to a third of one party.

    On a great day, I can see him winning eleven states.  More likely ... six.

    But this will never be tested. So ...

    Parent

    But look at what's happened to (none / 0) (#37)
    by BackFromOhio on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 10:30:52 AM EST
    anyone who's openly attacked Trump during the primaries - he's managed to turn the tables and make them look bad.

    Should Hilary win the nomination, she should talk about what she's going to do and her track record of getting things done, and let Trump self-destruct.

    Parent

    I believe she will do exactly that (none / 0) (#38)
    by CaptHowdy on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 10:43:50 AM EST
    Donald is the most known quantity in the race other than Hillary.   There is nothing about Donalds past that will change a single mind.  I am amazed, given what we have seen, that this is still being clung to.

    Donald will NOT be brought down by oppo.

    He will be defeated by a better candidate.

    I feel sure the Clintons understand this

    Parent

    R.B, you hit the nail on the head: (5.00 / 2) (#22)
    by NYShooter on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 11:34:49 PM EST
    "There's so much public domain oppo[sition research] on him."
    --------------------------------------------

    And, that's why, IMO, the Media's blackout regarding informing the public about his incredibly, incompetent history as a "Dealmaker," and/or, "Businessman," borders on treason. (Please excuse the hyperbole, but, I can't think of a better term to express such an outrage.)

    I believe, once Trump's "box office" appeal became obvious,  and, the ratings started going through the roof whenever he appeared on TV, the word went out from the Brass to their anchors/hosts, "This guy's a money-machine for us, so, whatever you do, let's keep him in the public eye for as long as possible and let's milk this thing for as long as we can, or, at least until the American public catches on to what a fraud he's perpetrating on them. Until then, let the good times roll, Ka-Ching!"

    And, from then on, you couldn't turn on your TV, from "Morning Joe," to "The 11 O'clock News," and not have Trump's mug yukking it up with his adoring  hosts, and their "hard hitting," puff ball, kid glove, questions. Yeah, Trump (with his treatment of Megyn Kelly) trained all these dedicated "Woodward/Bernstein Journalists" how he expected them to act if they wanted to get in on the gravy train he provided.

    And, like a good little gaggle of obedient, trained seals, they surrendered their dignity, discarded their duty, succumbed to amnesia regarding The Fourth Estate Giants that preceded them, and, obediently squatted at Donald's feet, squealing for more sardines.
    ------------------------------------------------

    More to follow, much, much more.


    And the moral of the story is... (5.00 / 2) (#27)
    by ruffian on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 06:08:05 AM EST
    Always always ALWAYS listen to your mother!

    Few people thought a junior Senator (5.00 / 1) (#45)
    by jimakaPPJ on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 12:20:30 PM EST
    with no record whatsoever doing anything would be elected.

    Yet he did. He sold hope and change.

    Guess what Trump is doing? Hope and change Release 2.0.

    Now, what will Hillary be doing??

    Selling more of the same last 8 years.

    I least she'll think twice (5.00 / 1) (#46)
    by jondee on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 12:29:09 PM EST
    before trying to sell the public dastardly, murderous lies about WMDs and trillion dollar auto-erotic neocon regime change fantasies..

    At least, one would hope..

    Parent

    Your hyperbole is cartoonishly over the top. (5.00 / 2) (#55)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 04:34:35 PM EST
    And the Chicago Cubs aren't going to hear your heckling from the Waveland Ave. rooftops outside Wrigley Field, either.

    Parent
    Worried, aren't you. (none / 0) (#58)
    by jimakaPPJ on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 07:05:38 PM EST
    That's the plan, man (none / 0) (#48)
    by Mr Natural on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 01:03:52 PM EST
    Rubio is a perfect example.  You can't hold his record against him because he's got no record.  Other than credit problems, which in our sad state of affairs, probably endears him to many voters...  

    "A man y'all can share a beer with - which you bought with money you borrowed from your IRA."

    Parent

    The more Rubio is endorsed by the (none / 0) (#59)
    by jimakaPPJ on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 07:08:06 PM EST
    "establishment" the less chance he has.

    Parent
    Trump (none / 0) (#60)
    by Ga6thDem on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 07:21:54 PM EST
    is not running on hope. Trump is running as the candidate of the angry white guy.

    Parent
    If by "guy" (none / 0) (#62)
    by CaptHowdy on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 07:45:44 PM EST
    You mean "person", you are right

    Johnson isn't alone. Although Trump is a divisive figure among female voters in national polls, his supporters are evenly spread between men and women in the Republican base.



    Parent
    He's uinnign on power and strength (none / 0) (#84)
    by ruffian on Mon Feb 22, 2016 at 08:34:15 AM EST
    A Strong Man fueled by mass anger.

    Not quite the same as hope and change through collective action.

    Parent

    Well yes (5.00 / 1) (#96)
    by jimakaPPJ on Mon Feb 22, 2016 at 01:55:02 PM EST
    The last "Hope and Change" candidate was not strong and the change was a reduction in net income...

    Parent
    Fall of the house of Bush: (5.00 / 1) (#76)
    by Mr Natural on Mon Feb 22, 2016 at 12:07:29 AM EST
    "How Jeb! fell victim to hype, hysteria ... and himself..."
    Bush's numbers didn't move, and the lack of enthusiasm for his candidacy was best reflected in a town hall ahead of the New Hampshire primary when he was forced, after hitting some of his key lines, to ask of his audience: "Please clap."

    Ding, dong, the dynasty is dead: so long to Jeb Bush and the family legacy, genteel political malfeasance and mass death.

    Blaming Jeb's failure on [Trump] devalues just how badly Bush could've simply screwed his campaign up on his own. Trump was the accelerant, but Bush had to fumble and drop a lit cigarette into his pants cuff before the Trump-branded gasoline could do its work.


    "For me, it was all about his glasses. (5.00 / 1) (#77)
    by Mr Natural on Mon Feb 22, 2016 at 12:26:07 AM EST
    On Jeb Bush, they made him look like the science teacher who told lame jokes and coached the high school quiz bowl team in his spare time. Everyone around him must have told him so. And yet he bravely donned them, proudly out of fashion, a defiant gesture against the modern political age. When they went--Jeb wore contacts for the first time in his life last week--it made things even sadder somehow. In a last gesture of futility, he had jettisoned the last thing that was still him."

    - Jeb, The Unluckiest Bush, by Frank Latimer, a former speechwriter for Dubya, writing in Politico


    Meanest summary of Jeb! campaign (5.00 / 4) (#94)
    by Towanda on Mon Feb 22, 2016 at 12:23:40 PM EST
    on Facebook:

    "One Child Left Behind"

    Please, (5.00 / 2) (#102)
    by KeysDan on Mon Feb 22, 2016 at 02:41:55 PM EST
    clap.

    Parent
    If he had just (none / 0) (#1)
    by CaptHowdy on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 09:12:56 PM EST
    Out all that money in a pile and set it on fire he would have been better off.  He could have stayed warm and not been Donalds punching bag.

    You know (none / 0) (#2)
    by Ga6thDem on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 09:16:24 PM EST
    the people that donated all that money to his campaign have to be absolutely livid.

    Parent
    No kidding (none / 0) (#3)
    by CaptHowdy on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 09:19:32 PM EST
    For how many months was the dominate meme that it was inevitable that it was going to be a Bush/Clinton race?

    Remember that?

    Seems like a long time ago.

    Parent

    A fool and his money are soon parted. (none / 0) (#4)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 09:20:25 PM EST
    And in the regard, if we've learned anything at all since the advent of Citizen's United, it's that the GOP is top-heavy with some very foolish political sugar daddies.

    Parent
    Look on the bright side. (none / 0) (#25)
    by Mr Natural on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 05:00:16 AM EST
    That $150M has represented full employment for the professional parasites in the political consulting industry.

    As Howdy said in the opener, Jeb! lit a fire and kept their homes warm.

    Parent

    I think their biggest mistake ... (none / 0) (#5)
    by Robot Porter on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 09:37:14 PM EST
    was putting Mike Murphy in charge of the super PAC rather than the campaign.

    Most of the other mistakes devolve from that one.

    But they made that decision before Trump announced.

    The root mistake, Robot, (5.00 / 2) (#26)
    by Mr Natural on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 05:02:55 AM EST
    was in believing that they could market us out of a deep disgust with the Bush Family and its legacy.

    I don't have much regard for the American voter, but apparently they're not quite as stupid as I'd believed.

    Parent

    LOL, Trump is the (5.00 / 3) (#50)
    by NYShooter on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 01:15:06 PM EST
    runaway front runner, and, you think the American voter is "not quite as stupid" as you'd believed?

    Sorry, LOL!

    Parent

    As stupid ... (5.00 / 1) (#52)
    by Robot Porter on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 03:28:24 PM EST
    and more racist.

    Parent
    But he won't be ... (none / 0) (#11)
    by Robot Porter on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 10:08:20 PM EST
    nominated so it doesn't matter.

    It will probably be Rubio/Kasich in the general.

    Just to be clear (none / 0) (#14)
    by CaptHowdy on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 10:12:05 PM EST
    Not sure what is being insinuated, I NEVER said he was not that dangerous.

    Quite exactly the opposite.  I think he is absolutely existentially dangerous and I have been saying so for months.   He is dangerous because he could win.   You clearly don't see that.
    Still you have been predicting his demise with some regularity.  And he is still here.

    We will know soon ... (none / 0) (#17)
    by Robot Porter on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 10:21:02 PM EST
    enough.

    And I find him rather dull to discuss.

    Parent

    Unlike most people ... (none / 0) (#18)
    by Robot Porter on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 10:23:30 PM EST
    who seem to want to discuss him endlessly.

    I've probably discussed him more with you than anyone.

    And I talk about the race a lot.

    Parent

    Yeah (none / 0) (#19)
    by CaptHowdy on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 10:26:49 PM EST
    That because I keep telling you he is going to win.  You say he is not.  Then he wins and it's starts all over again.

    Btw
    He's going to win NV.   By a lot.   Then we can talk about the south.

    Parent

    Yes, that's true, (5.00 / 1) (#23)
    by NYShooter on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 11:42:45 PM EST
    he will continue to win............

    at least until we see who the solid 65% who vote for "the others" gravitate to when the field narrows.

    It will be interesting to see how Bush's 8% plays out.

    Parent

    It not a linear game (none / 0) (#32)
    by CaptHowdy on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 07:35:39 AM EST
    If Marco got Jebs votes last night he would still have lost to Donald.
    This is not happening in a vacuum.   The more Donald wins the more his numbers will rise.    That's how it works.    He won big and decisively last night.  He will win bigger and even more decisively in NV.

    Then comes the south which I have been trying to tell people for months belongs to Donald.

    Yes Robot.   I have been saying he could be the nominee.  Allow me to say it again.

    He could easily be the nominee.

    Parent

    Once (5.00 / 1) (#34)
    by FlJoe on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 09:04:17 AM EST
    again, if he got Kasich's votes he wins in SC.

    The polls have consistently shown Trump lagging in "second choice" with Rubio consistently strong on that question. There is no question in my mind that, at this moment, Rubio has much more growth potential then Trump.

    Parent

    Then you don't know Cruz voters (none / 0) (#47)
    by jimakaPPJ on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 12:52:42 PM EST
    90% will go to Trump when Cruz gives up.

    Parent
    Why? (none / 0) (#78)
    by TrevorBolder on Mon Feb 22, 2016 at 05:40:26 AM EST
    Cruz is totally conservative in his policies. The Donald is quite liberal.
    If Cruz drops out, he also would be asking his supporters to support another candidate.

    I just don't see either Cruz or Rubio stepping aside to consolidate the anyone but Trump vote.

    Trump has the anyone but a politician vote all to himself, the anyone but Trump vote is split between too many

    Parent

    Cruz supporters have (none / 0) (#100)
    by jimakaPPJ on Mon Feb 22, 2016 at 02:10:20 PM EST
    immigration as a touchstone issue.

    Rubio is seen as very weak on immigration.

    Trump's position on immigration,the Muslim ban and the loss of jobs all appeal to Cruz voters.

    And very few voters in this new age of media give a flip who their ex-candidate supports.

    Facebook and Twitter have truly changed the world. Much more so than anyone could have guessed even 5 years ago.

    Parent

    He's won two states. (none / 0) (#24)
    by Robot Porter on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 12:06:37 AM EST
    And he lost one.

    I predicted he'd win the states he won. And I predicted he'd lose the one he lost.

    I also predict he won't win the nomination.

    You predicted he'd win all three. And the nomination.

    Parent

    There is a record (none / 0) (#31)
    by CaptHowdy on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 07:26:32 AM EST
    Donald will win SC (none / 0) (#90)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 08:56:46 PM EST

    Parent

    I doubt it. (none / 0) (#94)
    by Robot Porter on Tue Feb 09, 2016 at 09:09:50 PM EST

    Parent

    And it quite lengthy

    Parent

    My prediction yesterday ... (none / 0) (#39)
    by Robot Porter on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 10:57:25 AM EST
    was Trump would win.  He will win Nevada.

    But he won't win the nomination.

    And, if he does, big deal.  I'm wrong.  Won't be the first time.

    And, if he wins, that's great news for Clinton.

    She will win 40 states or more. Maybe as many as 44.

    Parent

    Who else in the GOP (none / 0) (#41)
    by jondee on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 11:11:05 AM EST
    has any crossover appeal whatsoever? Rubio?

    Trump has the same evangelicals-and-some-independents potential that Bush had in 2000.

    Parent

    The better question is where ... (none / 0) (#43)
    by Robot Porter on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 11:30:13 AM EST
    does Trump's growth come from?

    His percentage was lower in SC than in NH.  While the people below him have growing support.

    There are a lot of racists, wackadoos and loons in the Republican party. Trump has corralled them all.  And even pulled a few out of the wood pile.

    But I don't think there will ever be enough to get over fifty.


    Parent

    Again, you're correct, however, (none / 0) (#49)
    by NYShooter on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 01:08:47 PM EST
    we now find ourselves caught in a truly bizarre, and, mortally precarious dilemma. I think it's apparent that Trump's ceiling is not far above 35%. Even with Rubio's disastrous New Hampshire implosion Trump only managed to garner 35%. And, in yesterday's S.C. primary, with fewer opponents, his winning number actually went down to 32%. It may be a small item, but, it may also be a "canary in the coalmine" future indicator of where voters are leaning. So, now we can only guess & speculate about what the numbers would be if it broke down to a two man (Rubio & Trump) race?

    If it settles with Trump remaining close to 35%, and Rubio capturing the lion's share of the others' votes, then Rubio wins in a blowout. So, that's the first question to be calculated. To repeat, in a two man race, how will the 65% Non-Trump votes divide? My belief is that Rubio gets a majority of it.

    But, like I said above, we may be caught in the worst of all possible worlds whereby Cruz, Kasich, & Carson stay in the race until Trump, with never more than 35% in any remaining Primary, cruises to the nomination, and the General Election.

    There will be tremendous pressure brought upon the remaining candidates to drop out, "for the good of the Party & the Country." But, when it comes down to choosing between "the good of the Party & Country," and, their own lust driven, narcissism, and self-aggrandizement, I'm afraid their decision may prove disastrous for our country.

    Parent

    It will all come down ... (none / 0) (#51)
    by Robot Porter on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 03:06:23 PM EST
    to the winner-take-all contests.

    Parent
    I concur (none / 0) (#35)
    by Molly Bloom on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 09:52:29 AM EST
    He is dangerous and likely to win. He also likes to tell his audience at the given moment what they want to hear. So if he makes it to the general you can expect to hear unorthodox positions.

    I think he can be beaten. But if it is a slam dunk, I am afraid it's the George Tenet kind....

    Parent

    The pivot has begun (5.00 / 1) (#36)
    by CaptHowdy on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 09:59:46 AM EST
    He quickly and cheerfully told Joe Scarborough this morning that, of course, Obama is a Christian.

    Worth noting that while saying this his tweet that if Scalias funeral had been in a Mosque Obama would have gone is still up.

    If nothing else I can't believe that we don't know by now that everything we know is wrong and presumptions based on what's normal are a dead end and a fools errand

    Parent

    Neither comment (none / 0) (#44)
    by jimakaPPJ on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 12:14:06 PM EST
    excludes the other.

    Parent
    No Jebbers!!! (none / 0) (#21)
    by desertswine on Sat Feb 20, 2016 at 10:53:19 PM EST
    Please just tell us one more time how your brother kept us safe from the terrists.

    He really just (none / 0) (#33)
    by CaptHowdy on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 07:54:01 AM EST
    Wanted to spend more time with his family.  

    Wait, that won't work.   They were all there.

    Parent

    Shocked he didn't have the cajones (none / 0) (#28)
    by CoralGables on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 06:19:15 AM EST
    to wait until Florida voted as a winner take all. Then again, guess he didn't want to be embarrassed in his adopted home state.

    From what I saw last night Bush still has twice as much money on hand as Sanders. Seriously thought Bush would take one final stand with it. Perhaps he'll sit on that cash to help fund some other campaigns if he wants their backing in the unlikely scenario of a contested convention.

    Maybe he is hoping for a VP slot! (none / 0) (#29)
    by ruffian on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 06:21:18 AM EST
    Bwahahahaha!

    Parent
    And Jeb! is supposed to be (none / 0) (#30)
    by Towanda on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 06:46:33 AM EST
    "the smart one," as the spouse and I have had to say, shaking our heads, again and again in this campaign.

    Jeb does have a road back ... (none / 0) (#40)
    by Robot Porter on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 11:06:20 AM EST
    in 2020.

    The Republican party has to believe they made a mistake this year. That probably means them nominating Trump. And him losing badly in the general. It would probably help if Mr. Roboto glitches again. Disqualifying himself for the future.

    Then he has to get some more political creds on his resume. I believe the other senate seat in Florida is open in '18.

    Why would he do this?

    A potent Bush family revenge scenario: Keeping Hillary to one term. As Bill kept Papa Bush to one term.

    It's a long shot. But ... these kinds of things happen in politics.

    Hillary Clinton's not Poppy Bush, and Jeb!'s certainly no Bill Clinton.

    Jeb! got clobbered and worse still, he looked like a total wimp in the process. So not only has Jeb!'s political career closed, but the door also smacked him hard in the a$$ on his way out, for good measure.

    ;-D

    Parent

    America loves a comeback! (none / 0) (#109)
    by Robot Porter on Mon Feb 22, 2016 at 11:56:06 PM EST
    You serve that disk up right. They'll put their bibs on and come a-running.

    Parent
    dish (none / 0) (#110)
    by Robot Porter on Mon Feb 22, 2016 at 11:56:30 PM EST
    I would (none / 0) (#112)
    by Ga6thDem on Tue Feb 23, 2016 at 06:14:43 AM EST
    tend to agree about the comeback if he had any other name than Bush. I think voters are done with the Bush family at this point in time. Maybe in another generation when the family is forgotten Jeb's son might run. I understand he's won some office in Texas.

    Parent
    I said it was a long shot ... (none / 0) (#115)
    by Robot Porter on Tue Feb 23, 2016 at 09:14:29 AM EST
    but if Trump (or whoever) screws the pooch, they may remember that its been 30 years since a Republican not named Bush won the White House.

    Parent
    Don't Worry... (none / 0) (#91)
    by ScottW714 on Mon Feb 22, 2016 at 11:33:44 AM EST
    ...if Trump wins he will F it up so bad even a Bush will look good.  Plus they all have kids.  We ain't seen the last of them, I guarantee it.

    Parent
    The Republican primary (none / 0) (#42)
    by KeysDan on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 11:19:48 AM EST
    voters inaccurately discounted Jeb's wingnuttery.   He, really, would be everything they longed for--and he has a record to prove it.  Sure, there may have been something they did not like, but they could just let him know what it was, and be patient.  He would make himself over in their image, although it would take but a brief make-over. True, he was a Bush, and an establishment wacko, and this is the season for fringe wackos.  But, still. A missed opportunity to have both, establishment and wingnut.

    Plurality (none / 0) (#54)
    by smott on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 04:33:46 PM EST
    Is the thing to keep an eye for. If Rubio/Cruz combined could beat Trump, the Party would in a brokered convention go hard for it.
    Which makes Donald have to keep an eye on numbers and decide if he wants to go 3rd party to avoid getting ganged up on by the GOP.
    I believe states have various filing deadlines, the earliest
    Of which are in March.....sooner or later Trumo will have to decide if he trusts the GOP or not.

    I'm thinking Not, but he will have to stay prohibitively ahead.

    Donald (none / 0) (#56)
    by CaptHowdy on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 05:52:43 PM EST
    Is going to take 3 of the first 4 contests and then romp through the the south.

    Why would he go anywhere?

    Personally I think this whole brokered convention thing is an invention of the media and magical thnking of the establishment.

    Watching the Sunday shows, well, skimming the Sunday shows I was thinking about the Marco thing.   The question for Marco is where does he win.  No one seems to know where that is.   It sure doesnt look like FL.  

    For a while I thought there might be a Trump/Cruz ticket because they both had things the other needed.  But Donalt totally drank Teds milkshake in SC and I don't think Ted is good for much of anything at this point.

    Marco, on the other hand, with his swooning press and establishment money could make a lot of sense.

    I'm thinkin maybe Trump/ Rubio.

    Parent

    I have no (5.00 / 1) (#63)
    by FlJoe on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 08:05:12 PM EST
    doubt that trump will romp through the South but it won't gain him that many delegates because of the proportional allocation, add the fact that Cruz may very well beat him in Texas and prevent him from running up his count in that delegate goldmine.

    I still see trump as a moderate favorite to win but it is not going to be as easy as many people are making it out to be and there are several pitfalls that he can suffer that would lead to a brokered convention.

    So far the campaign has been in virtual preseason mode, basically four small contests spread over a month. Come March all hell breaks out and Trump will not be able to completely rely on his big rally and free media strategy that has served him well so far.

    In the first 2 weeks of March there will be 31 states and over 50% of the delegates, this is when campaign managers earn their money(and probably take a couple years off their lifespan) So far I have seen some amount of tactical "brilliance" from the Trump camp, but have not really seen any kind of strategic thinking from them.

    Trump will soon have several important decisions to make. Should he concentrate on running up the score across the deep south? Should he try to deal a death blow to Cruz in Texas. Should he try to stop Rubio in Va (which I think is Rubio's best early chance)? Should he fight for a handful of extra delegates in Mass, MI, Nc....? Most importantly when, where and how much will he spend to seal the deal?

     

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    Don't really disagree (none / 0) (#66)
    by CaptHowdy on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 08:25:12 PM EST
    With any of that.

    That said, I don't really expect the rest if the year to be any more normal politically that it already has been.

    I think there is an excellent chance that a lot of that very sound reasoning of yours may be of questionable relevance.

    For example, Donald and media.  He has not paid for it yet.
    Will he?  Probably.  If he needs to. But his campaign will not be like any we have seen.   In that and other ways most likely.

    Today they were talking about the importance of organization to winning in NV.  It requires lots of organization and support.   They discussed the organizations of Cruz and Rubio.  Did you know Rubio is sucking up to the Mormons?
    Anyway.  At the end if the conversation it was like.   Oh , but Donald is going to win in a walk and actually has no actual, you know, organization per se.

    Going to be an odd year.


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    Rubio (none / 0) (#81)
    by jbindc on Mon Feb 22, 2016 at 07:18:18 AM EST
    Attended Latter Day services for several years while he was a child and his family lived in Vegas.

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    Marco Rubio (none / 0) (#88)
    by KeysDan on Mon Feb 22, 2016 at 10:45:47 AM EST
    was a member of LDS, for three years during his childhood.  His father, apparently, did not join and was chided for being a bartender and drinking Cuban coffee.  His mother was a member (but, did drink Cuban coffee). According to this reporting, the Rubios did not ask to be removed from the LDS rolls. when they switched back to Catholicism.

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    Also (none / 0) (#67)
    by CaptHowdy on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 08:32:59 PM EST
    This

    So far the campaign has been in virtual preseason mode, basically four small contests spread over a month. Come March all hell breaks out and Trump will not be able to completely rely on his big rally and free media strategy that has served him well so far.

    Maybe
    But I listened to a discussion today where they discussed what they believed were the advantages this actually gives Donald.
    The fact that we are moving out of the early small stare door to door krap and moving moving into the stadium section.  Which was home field advantage for Trump.

    It made sense to me.

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    "the stadium section" (none / 0) (#75)
    by Mr Natural on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 11:44:41 PM EST
    Who will be Trump's Albert Speer?

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    Not (none / 0) (#57)
    by Ga6thDem on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 06:54:40 PM EST
    after Rubio's immigration two step can I see it. I don't know. There are a lot of people in the GOP to choose for VP and it could be any of them.

    If the other states are set up like SC for delegates coming in 2nd or 3rd is not going to matter. Rubio has to win something and then considering Rubio is the establishment guy he doesn't make a lot of sense for Trump to pick him either.

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    Trump probably (5.00 / 1) (#61)
    by leap on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 07:34:20 PM EST
    doesn't think he needs to pick anyone to be his running mate. He's Donald Trump. He don't need no secondary. He can handle it all his own self.

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    The (5.00 / 1) (#68)
    by FlJoe on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 08:46:03 PM EST
     the remaining states before 3/15 are some form of proportional, by my reckoning a 33% second will get roughly a third in just about all of them(as long as it's spread across most of the districts) and a +20 third should get around 10-20+ depending on the particular state.

       

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    A 22% 2nd place finish got (none / 0) (#69)
    by CoralGables on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 08:51:57 PM EST
    bupkis

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    That's (5.00 / 1) (#70)
    by FlJoe on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 09:08:41 PM EST
    because South carolina is basically a winner take all.If you were to apply Georgia's rules Trump would have won 30 delegates with Rubio getting 5-12 each depending how they placed by district.

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    If ifs and buts were candy and nuts (5.00 / 1) (#72)
    by CoralGables on Sun Feb 21, 2016 at 09:18:28 PM EST
    It's entirely (none / 0) (#80)
    by Ga6thDem on Mon Feb 22, 2016 at 06:01:09 AM EST
    possible that Rubio could get just a couple of delegates in GA but frankly I expect him to pretty much be shut out of delegates here in GA. Trump is going to carry almost all the districts and the districts he doesn't carry will probably go to Cruz. I guess Rubio might be able to pick up maybe Fulton County if he picks up anything.

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    It (5.00 / 1) (#82)
    by FlJoe on Mon Feb 22, 2016 at 08:16:19 AM EST
    looks like Ga has 31 at large delegates assigned strictly proportional with 42 district delegates spread 3 apiece over 14 districts, these are assigned 2 for the winner and 1 for second in each district. Note there is a 20% qualifier and a 50% WTA trigger involved. Link

    Assuming that no WTA triggers are reached and giving Rubio a reasonable 25% State wide, that gives him 7-8 at large delegates, he should be able to at least squeeze out a handful of district second places so he should get to at least low double digit delegate count.

    This pattern should continue across most of the Southern states who have similar allocation rules. Unless Trump starts topping 50% in individual District's we are liable to see a lot of 45/30/25 or 50/30/15 splits across the South, with Rubio being the low man and Trump on top(with the possible exception of TX where Cruz might end up on top)

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    Well, (none / 0) (#83)
    by Ga6thDem on Mon Feb 22, 2016 at 08:33:04 AM EST
    first of all Rubio is going to be complete shut out of a lot of districts in Ga like the ones in North Ga and South GA. Nathan Deal and his cronies have gerrymandered someone like Rubio out of being able to win any GOP district in GA and it's unlikely he would even get 2nd. The wild card IMO is what happens in the districts like John Lewis'. We all know they are going to go heavily for Hillary on the D side but what is going to happen there on the R side?

    I seriously doubt that Rubio could even garner 20% statewide in GA especially against Trump and Cruz. According to RCP his polling average is 13%. Maybe Deal with come out and endorse him and maybe that will move a few points but I'm not sure it would be enough.

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    I am (5.00 / 1) (#85)
    by FlJoe on Mon Feb 22, 2016 at 09:04:06 AM EST
    almost certain Rubio will top 20%, the polling in Ga has been sparse and old. Nate Silver even has Rubio as a very slim favorite to win there(I am not buying that) but I expect the next round of post SC polling will show him in the mid 20's.

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    Rubio and Trump, by Paul Krugman (none / 0) (#86)
    by KeysDan on Mon Feb 22, 2016 at 10:16:30 AM EST
    (Feb 22).  "The Republican race has consolidated and is pretty much down to a two-man race. One of the two men who may still have a good chance of becoming the nominee is a scary character.  His notions on foreign policy seems to boil down to the belief that America can bully everyone into doing its bidding, and the engaging in diplomacy is a sign of weakness.  His ideas on domestic policy are deeply ignorant and irresponsible, and would be disastrous if put into effect.

    The other man, of course, has very peculiar hair.

    ......Mr. Rubio's consolidation of establishment support isn't a testament to his good sense.  In fact, it's almost the opposite; a reward for his willingness to echo party orthodoxy even, or perhaps especially, when it's nonsense.  

    So don't let anyone tell you that the Republican primary is a fight between a crazy guy and someone reasonable.  It's idiosyncratic, self-invented crankery vs. establishment-approved crakery, and it's not at all clear which is worse."

    Rubio (none / 0) (#87)
    by Ga6thDem on Mon Feb 22, 2016 at 10:39:42 AM EST
    has endorsed every crazy thing that Trump has pretty much. I'm sure Hillary will be more than happy to point that out. A young man with decrepit ideas.

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    Rubio is the Republican (none / 0) (#89)
    by KeysDan on Mon Feb 22, 2016 at 10:53:28 AM EST
    establishment's savior, despite Rubio's claim that it is not him, but Jesus Christ.  I even heard Tweety anoint the ticket of Rubio/Haley--the young face for the Republicans.  Yes, a younger faces and ancient brains.

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    Haley (none / 0) (#92)
    by Ga6thDem on Mon Feb 22, 2016 at 11:45:51 AM EST
    LOL. She's so ashamed of her heritage that she won't use her real name Nimrata. She reminds me of black people who used to try to pass for white during Jim Crow. I guess it's escaped Tweety that if the GOP is using Haley they're probably afraid of not carrying SC in a general election which bodes very poorly for them. I find that ticket just sad and desperate. Maybe Ms. Haley would be okay with having her daughter turned into a birthing slave but I'm willing to bet most women will not be.

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    Actually (none / 0) (#93)
    by jbindc on Mon Feb 22, 2016 at 11:52:30 AM EST
    She's been called "Nikki" since she was a baby.  It means "little one" or "small" in Punjabi.

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    Wrong eight years (none / 0) (#107)
    by Repack Rider on Mon Feb 22, 2016 at 08:10:34 PM EST
    Scott, you and Obama own the last 8 years. The bad economy, the collapsed foreign policy...'

    I recall that we invaded Iraq to the tune of $2T, and the economy collapsed on the Bush watch.  Something happened on 9/11, a month after Bush was warned specifically, and nine months after Bush was warned by the Clinton staff that he should make al Qaeda his highest priority.

    Where were you during that period that you don't remember?  In a coma?

    The funniest (none / 0) (#108)
    by Ga6thDem on Mon Feb 22, 2016 at 08:18:47 PM EST
    thing is his current candidate of choice has been talking about what a disaster Bush was as president.

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    he was watching FOX (none / 0) (#111)
    by Mr Natural on Tue Feb 23, 2016 at 03:04:28 AM EST
    Considering what his brother did to the world, (none / 0) (#120)
    by AX10 on Tue Feb 23, 2016 at 01:06:32 PM EST
    one would think there would be more celebration
    around here.  The BFEE is done.

    Feh (none / 0) (#127)
    by Ga6thDem on Tue Feb 23, 2016 at 02:28:57 PM EST
    well, it's kind of been a slow painful death for Jeb. We realized a long time ago he was dead before the coroner made the proclamation.

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    Thread cleaned of (none / 0) (#128)
    by Jeralyn on Wed Feb 24, 2016 at 02:48:27 PM EST
    insults and hijacked topics. Jim and Jondee are in time out. Several others of you are close.

    The topic is Jeb Bush's campaign and stop insulting each other.