Trump's Poll Numbers Continue to Fall

By Jeralyn, Section Trump Administration
Posted on Sun Jul 16, 2017 at 01:32:20 PM EST
Tags: (all tags)

Share This: Digg!

Donald Trump's approval ratings continue to fall. A new ABC News/Washington Post poll says he is down to 36%, the lowest since Gerald Ford.

Approaching six months in office, Trump’s overall approval rating has dropped to 36 percent from 42 percent in April. His disapproval rating has risen five points to 58 percent. Overall, 48 percent say they “disapprove strongly” of Trump’s performance in office, a level never reached by former presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama and reached only in the second term of George W. Bush in Post-ABC polling.

The actual poll results are here. [More...]

The New York Post crunches the numbers and reports:

Sixty-six percent of those surveyed said they don’t trust him to negotiate with world leaders or with Putin, who the US intelligence community said directed the hacking into the 2016 presidential election.

On that matter, 60 percent of Americans think Russia tried to influence the election – up from 56 percent in April – and 67 percent think Trump campaign members “intentionally” helped Russia meddle – down from 71 percent since April.

Sixty-three percent said it was “inappropriate” for Trump Jr., former campaign manager Paul Manafort and son-in-law Jared Kushner to meet with a Russian lawyer last June. Another 26 percent said it was “appropriate” and 10 percent had “no opinion.”

< Media Rakes Don Jr. Over the Coals | The Trumps and Russia: Too Many Coincidences, Too Many Lawyers >

Legal

Nothing on this site should be construed as legal advice. TalkLeft does not give legal advice.

TalkLeft is not responsible for and often disagrees with material posted in the comments section. Read at your own risk.

Trump's Poll Numbers Continue to Fall | 34 comments (34 topical)

Readers Must Login or Create an Account to Comment

You skipped over one of the most interesting (5.00 / 3) (#1)
by Peter G on Sun Jul 16, 2017 at 02:50:20 PM EST

stats from that poll: Some 82% of self-described Republicans continue to say they approve of how Tr*mp is handling the job, a slippage of only two percent since April for that group. He was so right in his comment about what he could do in the middle of Fifth Avenue.

: most of those people (5.00 / 1) (#2)
by CaptHowdy on Sun Jul 16, 2017 at 05:25:21 PM EST

probably know very little about the Combover Conspiracy. i think taht is going to start changing. FOX has started atually covering it. see that video in the other post. plus as i commented in another thread FOX news sunday kicked Jay Seculows but. they really did. i watched him on three different sunday shows and FOX was the toughest. by far. it was the only one where they ended up shouting "let me finish" over each other.
i speculated in another thread FOX has made a decision to cut Trump loose and start proping up Pence.
anyway, polls are always a lagging indicator in this sort of thing because people tend to ignore what they dont want to hear.
i predict those numbers start changing.

William Rivers Pitt is brilliant (5.00 / 1) (#8)
by CaptHowdy on Mon Jul 17, 2017 at 10:16:00 AM EST

he was brilliant on Bush, he is brilliant on Trump -

Any takeaway from all this, though, must not include "Donald Trump is finished," because sometimes a cornered animal is exceedingly dangerous. Trump and his whole crew are preposterous frauds, but he still retains the enormous powers of the presidency, and he is watching much of his world collapse around him. At this point, he is capable of just about anything, especially if he believes he is defending his family.
Thanks to the 2001 Authorization for the Use of Military Force, Trump has the power to start and/or escalate wars at will, and war is a time-tested method of distraction. He still has control over a vast nuclear arsenal. The current scandal is yet another glaring indication that Trump and his people are more than comfortable engaging in shady dealings behind closed doors. Plus, in the event of a terrorist attack, real or imagined, Trump has astonishing police powers at his disposal. None of us can accurately guess what he's capable of as president.
This is not alarmism. This is enlightened self-interest. Fear and vigilance are highly appropriate responses at this juncture. More than at any point since January, Donald Trump is, right now, the most dangerous man in the world.

Trump is a cornered animal. and he is dangerous

He is unfortunately, spot on. (none / 0) (#12)
by Chuck0 on Mon Jul 17, 2017 at 11:40:26 AM EST

Cheeto will protect his family before the country. Not what you want from a president. Same reason I am uncomfortable with Pence as president. He described himself as "I'm a Christian, a conservative and a Republican, in that order". Nowhere does he say he is an American first. Remember in the West Wing, when Barlett resigned temporarily after Zoey was kidnapped. I know it's TV. But theoretically, that's what a leader is supposed to do. Put country BEFORE family, before religion, before party. Cheeto and Pence are NOT leaders.


you are correct, up to a point. (none / 0) (#13)
by cpinva on Mon Jul 17, 2017 at 12:01:06 PM EST

while the AUMF may (note i said "may") authorize him to send troops into harm's way, what it doesn't enable him to do is authorize the funds to pay for it. only congress has that authority, since it holds the purse strings; no money, no war.


That does NOT make me feel better. (none / 0) (#14)
by desertswine on Mon Jul 17, 2017 at 12:07:44 PM EST

: Sorry (none / 0) (#22)
by CaptHowdy on Mon Jul 17, 2017 at 08:21:18 PM EST

Me either

The reason for his (none / 0) (#3)
by NYShooter on Sun Jul 16, 2017 at 05:31:56 PM EST

continued strong approval rating among Republicans is the same reason he won the election. Anything he does to "stick it" to those smarmy, self-righteous, hypocritical Liberals is a plus as far as they're concerned.

People didn't vote FOR him, they voted AGAINST Hillary and the Democrats.

That theory does not explain (5.00 / 2) (#4)
by Peter G on Sun Jul 16, 2017 at 05:46:19 PM EST

the reported responses to the question whether the person approves of how Tr*mp is performing the job of President of the United States.


: just mentioned in another thread (none / 0) (#5)
by CaptHowdy on Sun Jul 16, 2017 at 05:55:53 PM EST

it has a name. anti-anti-Trump.

: I understand what you're saying, Peter (none / 0) (#6)
by NYShooter on Sun Jul 16, 2017 at 08:28:23 PM EST

The question is an empirical one, but, the answers tend to be more emotional. You just have to take a look at the comments to see that.
The main problem I have with the poll (or, most polls) is that with the two Parties so incredibly opposite, the homogenized result is less meaningful than if the results had been broken down by Party.

this would be my mom. (none / 0) (#11)
by cpinva on Mon Jul 17, 2017 at 11:28:10 AM EST

at least, according to what she told my brother and I at dinner one night. she just couldn't bring herself to vote for HRC, because of all those (made up) scandals. yeah, thanks a lot mom.

i wonder, is it possible for a president to have a negative approval rating? Trump is edging closer and closer to that, without even trying hard.


And here's the lingering effect of all that: (none / 0) (#32)
by Donald from Hawaii on Tue Jul 18, 2017 at 10:21:50 AM EST

Bloomberg News | July 18, 2017
Finally, a Poll Trump Will Like: Clinton Even More Unpopular - "For a president with historically low poll numbers, Donald Trump can at least find solace in this: Hillary Clinton is doing worse. Trump's 2016 Democratic rival is viewed favorably by just 39 percent of Americans in the latest Bloomberg National Poll, two points lower than the president. It's the second-lowest score for Clinton since the poll started tracking her in September 2009. The former secretary of state has always been a polarizing figure, but this survey shows she's even lost popularity among those who voted for her in November."

I wrote about this dubious phenomenon just the other day, about how it's long been considered fashionable sport for far too many in American politics -- particularly in the east coast media -- to first pile on Mrs. Clinton for whatever her perceived sins, and then further blame her for their deliberate choice to do so.

Even with the 2016 election over and the mounting evidence of Russian intervention and interference on behalf of Trump, these people just can't restrain themselves. At this point in time, given the existential crisis that's currently engulfing our country, the media's continued penchant for Hillary-bashing has become the ultimate in false political equivalencies.

Aloha.


: Hillary probably lost her chance to (5.00 / 1) (#33)
by Anne on Tue Jul 18, 2017 at 12:23:51 PM EST

be presidential-level popular when she was seen as mangling health care reform, and as much as Bill's dalliances didn't seem to affect his popularity, it affected hers: she was the scorned and cheated-on wife who was seen as an enabler more interested in her own slice of the power pie. And that was just the early stuff.
I don't think Clinton will ever get out from under the cloud that travels with her - she will always have a "Pigpen"-style trail of dirt following behind her.
She let her own greed and her own need to best her husband get in the way - she may have had some real enemies, but she may have been the worst one.
If she'd take a page or 20 out of Jimmy Carter's playbook, she might actually be able to change that - but she'd have to give up the big paychecks and put her talents to use helping people who can't write 6-figure checks. Maybe the Children's Defense Fund could use some help, eh?
As for Trump, what a disaster.

Why trust the polls? (none / 0) (#7)
by McBain on Mon Jul 17, 2017 at 10:10:19 AM EST

Most were terrible during the elections with their oversampling of Democrats. This ABC/WaPo poll is especially bad...

Partisan divisions are 35-23-35, Democrats-Republicans-independents

The Denver post article doesn't even mention the Dem +12 breakdown. Even the poll results article hides that part in the "Methodology" towards the end.

When they show poll results on TV, they'll often include the error range but rarely do they include the Democrats vs. Republican split. This is one of the reasons so many people where shocked when Trump won.

BS (5.00 / 5) (#21)
by Yman on Mon Jul 17, 2017 at 08:18:37 PM EST

Why trust the polls? Most were terrible during the elections ...

Repeating a lie doesn't make it true. As you've been repeatedly told, the national polls were very accurate. Moreover, polls are how we always measure approval ratings. You just don't like the results.


The partisan divisions are determined (none / 0) (#9)
by Anne on Mon Jul 17, 2017 at 10:54:23 AM EST

consistent with the percentages of people who identify with each party.

Per the cited page, as of June 2017, 26% identified as Republicans, 42% as Dems and 30% as independents.

So, the questions are asked not to equal numbers of Republicans, Dems and independents, or to a set number of individuals without reference to party, but in numbers that correlate with each party's representation nationally.

I know it may seem odd to you, but I think the goal of polling is to be able to use sample numbers that can extrapolate nationally.

Is it perfect? No - but no one said it was.


Your numbers are incorrect (none / 0) (#10)
by McBain on Mon Jul 17, 2017 at 11:16:44 AM EST

You swapped the Dems and independents. The article you linked says....
Republicans 26%
Democrats 30%
Independents 42%

A Dem +4 sample is much more realistic than a Dem + 12. The ABC/WaPo poll isn't an accurate reflection of what the country thinks about our president.


How many polls would it take for you (none / 0) (#15)
by Anne on Mon Jul 17, 2017 at 12:29:56 PM EST

to believe that Trump's numbers are low and getting lower?


Why would I trust the polls Anne? (none / 0) (#17)
by McBain on Mon Jul 17, 2017 at 01:56:26 PM EST

Take a look the ABC/WaPo poll from Trump's first 100 days...
It shows his approval rating was at 42%. The current first six month ABC/WaPo we've been talking about has trump at 36%. That makes it look like a significant drop. But you have to look at the sampling data...

100 day poll breakdown: 31-24-36, D+8
6 month poll breakdown: 35-23-35 D+12

Factor in the error rate of 3.5 and there's no way you can tell if his approval rating is going down.

There are plenty of other ways polls can be biased or misleading. Sampling data is just the most obvious.

I know statistics are boring but at some point people need to understand the numbers the media are throwing at them aren't accurate.


You (5.00 / 3) (#19)
by FlJoe on Mon Jul 17, 2017 at 06:15:39 PM EST

cannot trust one individual poll in any case, I'm not going to dig in the methodolgy here but many if not most pollsters weight the results to match actual demographics. For what it's worth Silver gives this one an A+.

Maybe you are correct and they do over sample Democrats and the are a left outlier but only by 2-4 points and their trend is consistent with all the polls, even Rasmussen has lost 10 points in the last 6 months.

All you apologists try to pick on some minor point to deflect from the fact your hero is a loser. Those rose colored spectacles are a bad look for you.


The ABC/WaPo poll is garbage (none / 0) (#20)
by McBain on Mon Jul 17, 2017 at 08:11:19 PM EST

The current one over sampled Dems by 8-9 points. Who knows what else they did to skew the results?

You can believe the polls all you want but remember how much good that did last November.


What's "garbage" is your baseless smear (5.00 / 3) (#23)
by Yman on Mon Jul 17, 2017 at 08:39:32 PM EST

Your problem is that you're conflating party identification in polling with actual party registration. They're not the same. The only question is whether your conflation is intentional.

Polls - particularly reputable polls like the one you're smearing because you don't like the results - are real. The aggregate of all polls has Trump at a negative -14.7 approval rating, very close(2.3 points) to the Washington Post poll. Your opinion of these polls is meaningless.


I suspect that he just doesn't (5.00 / 5) (#24)
by Anne on Mon Jul 17, 2017 at 08:55:45 PM EST

like asking why more people self-identify as Democrats - I mean, you know, considering Republicans have such great ideas and all...


Just get it right is what I'm asking for (none / 0) (#25)
by McBain on Mon Jul 17, 2017 at 09:14:14 PM EST

and if a poll has an unrealistic sample, that should be made clear in the study, article or news report.

My personal opinion is I don't think much has changed since the election. Trump voters would vote for him again. Or as NYShooter put it, they would vote against his opponent. I think it's a little of both.

The real question isn't about Trump's popularity, it's can the Democrats find exiting, charismatic candidates with a clear message most people want to hear. In the past, when they've had one of those, I usually supported them.


The sampling was made clear (5.00 / 2) (#26)
by Yman on Mon Jul 17, 2017 at 09:26:16 PM EST

You always have to check the actual poll to see the methodology, including the sampling. What they shouldn't do is label their sample "unrealistic" because some winger doesn't like the poll results.

BTW - No doubt many Trump supporters would still support him. It's hard for people to admit they've been duped. Moreover,

The real question isn't about Trump's popularity, it's can the Democrats find exiting, charismatic candidates with a clear message most people want to hear. In the past, when they've had one of those, I usually supported them.

More people voted for the Democratic candidate last time - by several million votes. Save your crocodile concern for someone who believes it. I'll take the smart, competent candidate whose policies I like over the lying snake oil salesman that you find "charismatic" - as would more Americans than the Trumpers you speak for.


Well, see, here's the thing: that poll (5.00 / 4) (#29)
by Anne on Tue Jul 18, 2017 at 08:07:36 AM EST

you're taking such issue with had nothing to do with Trump's personal popularity, something you'd know if you actually looked at the questions.

Do people approve of how he's handling his job (no), how he's handling the economy (nearly tied), is he making progress toward his goals (no), how does he compare to past presidents (worse), can he be trusted to deal with foreign leaders, negotiate with Putin (hell, no), and so on.

Not a single question about whether people like his personality, his speaking style, if they approve of his hairdo, if his suits make him look fat, if his ties are too long, if he's exciting, charismatic, dynamic.

Speaking only for myself, if a candidate doesn't get it right - for me - on policy, everything else falls away. I don't think Democrats need an entertainer, I think they need someone who can communicate, explain and advocate for the kinds of policies that actually improve the quality of people's lives. I think they need someone who understands that I and my lady parts don't need the government to tell me what I can and can't do with them and about them. I think they need someone who understands the need to keep religion separate from government. I think they need someone who sees the insanity of the drug war, and doesn't think prison is the answer to everything. I think they need someone who understands that real family values mean things like a good minimum wage, paid family leave, affordable higher education. A basic standard of living that doesn't include being homeless, hungry, poor and sick.

I could get excited about someone like that.


im starting to think (5.00 / 1) (#30)
by CaptHowdy on Tue Jul 18, 2017 at 08:31:14 AM EST

there is one part of Trumps approach democrats might learn from.

play to your damn base and people will vote. people who might not have ever voted before. Bernie, i must now admit, was better on that than Hillary. water under the bridge. i dont think it can be Bernie in 2020 for age and other reasons but it needs to be someone with a Bernie message.

a message for the base. a message that gives them something to vote FOR.

stop the silly pointless appeal to the no longer existent "middle".

IMO the middle has gone the way of the Dodo. Trump understood this.

its time democrats did.


I agree with most of the ideal (none / 0) (#31)
by McBain on Tue Jul 18, 2017 at 10:06:56 AM EST

presidential qualities you listed. But it doesn't hurt to be a crowd pleaser, especially in swing states.


: Doesn't hurt in the short term (5.00 / 2) (#34)
by Yman on Tue Jul 18, 2017 at 01:39:12 PM EST

You might even be able to eek out an electoral college win (while losing the popular vote). OTOH, pandering to base instincts, fear-mongering, making impossible promises, not to mention engaging in conspiracy theories and chronic, pathological lying will greatly damage your personal - and the country's - credibility, let alone your ability to get anything done.

Thomas Frank (none / 0) (#27)
by linea on Mon Jul 17, 2017 at 09:27:11 PM EST

the author of "What's the Matter with Kansas?" was recently interviewed on npr and he asserted that the democratic party elites have completely convinced themselves that "demographics is destiny" and they aren't even bothering.


: Just one opinion (5.00 / 2) (#28)
by Yman on Mon Jul 17, 2017 at 09:52:10 PM EST

Not surprising, since he was a Berner.

Made in America week? (none / 0) (#16)
by Chuck0 on Mon Jul 17, 2017 at 12:52:56 PM EST

Dumbo does realize that 2 of his 3 wives weren't even made in America, doesn't he? Much lest most of his and his daughter's branded products.

: none (5.00 / 4) (#18)
by CaptHowdy on Mon Jul 17, 2017 at 03:35:04 PM EST

not "most", none

As the Washington Post reported over the weekend, none of Ivanka Trump's clothing and shoes are made in the USA: