The Path to Victory: Biden v. Trump
95% of the time I think the election will be a slam-dunk for Biden and a decisive rejection of Donald Trump. But then, I think of all the millionaires and billionaires exercising their clout for Trump, and the unknown faction -- the number of marginalized, unhappy, under-informed lost souls out there somewhere in rural America, and I wonder, could they bring the election home for Trump?
The Wall St. Journal today has a "path to victory" chart in which you can move the battleground states into either candidate's column to see how they can reach 270 electoral votes. (Note: Paywall, but I think the NY Times had a similar feature a few weeks ago).
Biden starts way ahead of Trump with 226 electoral votes to Trump's 165. But, Florida is big, with 29 E.V. and Texas has 38. PA, Ohio and MI are next with 20, 18, and 16. Personally, I think Biden will take Florida, but even if he does, Trump could still win. For example, if the only undecideds Biden takes are FL, IA and NV.
Biden has the edge, and I hope he trounces Trump in a landslide, so Trump can never claim his legacy is anything but the failure that it is. [More...]
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