No one I know could remember 55 pages of instructions read to them once over the course of an hour. I think that leaves the jury free to decide the case however they want. Only if they are faced with a fellow juror who wants to be a holdout, will they ask for a reading back to try and convince that juror to get on board. With the instructions not in front of them to refer to at will, I think they will be forgotten. They'll rely on their "common sense". That could give Donald Trump an edge if people vote by their gut feeling because they don't remember the definitons.
Next issue: I think Donald Trump has bet the farm on this trial, insisting he will only accept total exoneration, and I think he will lose. It comes down to his arrogance and belief in his superiority and in this case, I think it will bring him down. I'm talking about his refusal to ask for lesser offense instructions.
I doubt many readers here watch the TV show Survivor. But every week one contestant gets voted off the island. The only thing that can save them if they are voted off is if they happen to have found an "immunity idol" which is hidden somewhere on the island. Right after the votes are cast in secret, Host Jeff asks whether any one has a hidden immunity idol and they want to play it. If a player says I do and wants to play the idol, any votes against that person don't count. S/he's safe. But sometimes a player will have an idol, but because they don't think anyone's voting to send them home, they figure they will hold it till the next week when they may need it more. And then, they get blindsided.
This season, a whopping four contestants got sent home when they had idols in their pocket but didn't play them because they thought they weren't the target of the other contestants. The looks on their faces as the host reveals the votes, one by one, are halfway between astonishment and embarrassment, as they realize they have this now-useless idol burning a hole in their pocket, and they just lost their chance to win a million dollars because they didn't use the idol.
Donald Trump had an idol in his pocket and didn't use it. He went for broke instead. What was his idol? The misdemanor charge. Donald Trump and his lawyers had to review his option to ask for for a lesser included charge. One that says, "If you find Trump not guilty of first degree falsifying business records (a felony), you may then consider whether he committed second degree (misdemeanor) falsifying business records". A crime is a "lio" of a larger crime if every element in the lesser crime is in the greater crime.
I'm sure Trump and his lawyers discussed it at length. I think that Trump, out of arrogance and pride, told his lawyers not to ask the Judge to include an LIO instruction because he can't allow himself to admit guilt to anything. It's just not in his DNA. So he opted for all or nothing. This was just fine with the prosecutors, who are highly confident they will win. If the jury comes back with even a single guilty verdict on one of the 34 counts, Trump will have a felony conviction. While he is unlikely to receive a prison or jail sentence if he is convicted on either crime (at least according to this 2023 study of sentences handed down for this particular offense), being a felon does carry some serious restrictions.
One last thing for now, on the unanimity requirement:
Although you must conclude unanimously that the defendant conspired to promote or prevent the election of any person to a public office by unlawful means, you need not be unanimous as to what those unlawful means were.
In determining whether the defendant conspired to promote or prevent the election of any person to a public office by unlawful means, you may consider the following: (1) violations of the Federal Election Campaign Act otherwise known as FECA; (2) the falsification of other business records; or (3) violation of tax laws.
Personally, I think the jury should have to be unanimous on the unlawful means. But that's getting too far into the weeds for now. I just want to see a guilty verdict. Asking for jail is unrealistic, given the statistics above.
I wonder who the jury selection experts were for each side. Why leave a retired lawyer in wealth management, a corporate lawyer and a financial analyst for an asset managment firm on the jury? Trump has big support among Republican elites in big financial circles. He promises to keep their taxes down.
I feel disappointed because without a copy of the jury instructions in the jury room, these jurors are not going to be applying the facts to the law as read to them by the Judge. Which is going to cause people to question the integrity of any guilty verdict that the jury returns. What a shame when so much hard work went into it.
